{
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 "predecessor_release_id": "20261028T235749Z-e168e9f8ef06",
 "subjects": [
  {
   "id": "gary-marcus",
   "name": "Gary Marcus",
   "identification": "Scientist and author who writes the newsletter Marcus on AI. His own author line: \"Scientist, author and entrepreneur, known as a leading voice in AI. Six books including The Algebraic Mind, Rebooting AI, and Taming Silicon Valley; NYU Professor Emeritus.\"",
   "identification_source": {
    "title": "Marcus on AI, About (author bio, retrieved 2026-10-28)",
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/about"
   },
   "profile_links": [
    {
     "label": "Marcus on AI",
     "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com"
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   "windows": [
    {
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     "publication": "Marcus on AI",
     "origin": "https://garymarcus.substack.com",
     "from": "2022-05-01",
     "to": "2026-03-02",
     "basis": "Every post in the window, re-captured from the publication's archive listing. The legacy dataset (474 posts, snapshot 2026-03-02) is used only as a cross-check list."
    },
    {
     "id": "marcus-current",
     "publication": "Marcus on AI",
     "origin": "https://garymarcus.substack.com",
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     "basis": "Posts published after the legacy snapshot, discovered from the publication's archive listing."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ed-zitron",
   "name": "Ed Zitron",
   "identification": "Writer of the newsletter Where's Your Ed At and host of the podcast Better Offline. His about page says he is the CEO of the media relations firm EZPR.",
   "identification_source": {
    "title": "Where's Your Ed At, About (retrieved 2026-10-28)",
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/about/"
   },
   "profile_links": [
    {
     "label": "Where's Your Ed At",
     "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at"
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   "windows": [
    {
     "id": "zitron-wyea",
     "publication": "Where's Your Ed At",
     "origin": "https://www.wheresyoured.at",
     "from": "2023-01-01",
     "to": "2026-10-28",
     "basis": "Posts discovered from the publication's sitemap. Premium posts behind a paywall are counted and not read."
    }
   ]
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 "held": [
  {
   "id": "americansunlight-substack-com-cp-168074209-145d88",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://americansunlight.substack.com/cp/168074209",
    "title": "Bad Actors are Grooming LLMs to Produce Falsehoods",
    "date": "2025-07-11"
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   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "americansunlight-substack-com-cp-168074209-533d41",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://americansunlight.substack.com/cp/168074209",
    "title": "Bad Actors are Grooming LLMs to Produce Falsehoods",
    "date": "2025-07-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "americansunlight-substack-com-cp-168074209-54e1ab",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://americansunlight.substack.com/cp/168074209",
    "title": "Bad Actors are Grooming LLMs to Produce Falsehoods",
    "date": "2025-07-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "americansunlight-substack-com-cp-168074209-f8024d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://americansunlight.substack.com/cp/168074209",
    "title": "Bad Actors are Grooming LLMs to Produce Falsehoods",
    "date": "2025-07-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "ez-ai-services-majority-token-billing-by-end-2026",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:51:47Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/four-horsemen-of-the-aipocalypse",
    "title": "Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse",
    "date": "2026-04-21"
   },
   "proposition": "By the end of 2026, a majority of AI services will move some or all of their customers to token-based billing."
  },
  {
   "id": "ez-ai-three-quarters-to-prove-itself",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:51:54Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/peakai",
    "title": "Have We Reached Peak AI?",
    "date": "2024-03-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Within about three quarters of March 2024 (by the end of 2024), the AI boom would collapse in a way that savages the revenues of the biggest tech companies."
  },
  {
   "id": "ez-anthropic-2025-lost-over-8bn",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:51:56Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai not_applicable/not_applicable/not_adjudicable.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": "In calendar 2025, Anthropic lost more than $8 billion."
  },
  {
   "id": "ez-anthropic-2025-net-loss-42bn",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:52:30Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "ez-big-tech-2tn-ai-capex-by-2027",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:52:58Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/am-i-meant-to-be-impressed",
    "title": "Am I Meant To Be Impressed?",
    "date": "2026-05-06"
   },
   "proposition": "By the end of 2027, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta will together have spent about $2 trillion on AI capital expenditures."
  },
  {
   "id": "ez-big-tech-560bn-ai-capex-2024-2025-if-promises-kept",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:53:10Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui",
    "title": "The Hater's Guide To The AI Bubble",
    "date": "2025-07-21"
   },
   "proposition": "If Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Tesla keep their spending promises, by the end of 2025 they will together have spent over $560 billion in capital expenditures on AI over 2024 and 2025."
  },
  {
   "id": "ez-openai-another-round-by-march-2027",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:53:35Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: An OpenAI funding round announced and signed by 2027-03-31, or none by then, with any statement by OpenAI about its need for capital..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "ez-openai-broadcom-asic-not-in-2026",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:53:37Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/not_due/unresolved, openai forecast_outcome/not_due/not_adjudicable.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui",
    "title": "The Hater's Guide To The AI Bubble",
    "date": "2025-07-21"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI and Broadcom will not build their custom AI chip (ASIC) in 2026."
  },
  {
   "id": "ez-openai-next-round-by-july-2025",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:54:13Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai-business",
    "title": "OpenAI Is A Bad Business",
    "date": "2024-10-02"
   },
   "proposition": "Once OpenAI has raised its current round of $6.5 billion to $7 billion, it will have to raise another round of at least the same size by July 2025, if not sooner."
  },
  {
   "id": "ez-oracle-collapses-without-openai",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:54:08Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": "If Oracle loses OpenAI's revenue, Oracle will collapse."
  },
  {
   "id": "ez-wall-street-punishes-big-tech-by-q1-2025",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:54:02Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai",
    "title": "The Subprime AI Crisis",
    "date": "2024-09-16"
   },
   "proposition": "By the end of the first quarter of 2025 at the latest, investors will begin punishing big tech companies for their AI spending, and the punishment will hit them far harder than NVIDIA."
  },
  {
   "id": "gm-copyright-suits-continue-2025",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:54:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "gm-no-10k-line-bugfree-code-2029",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:55:42Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things",
    "title": "Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI",
    "date": "2022-05-31"
   },
   "proposition": "In 2029, no AI system will be able to reliably build bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from a natural-language specification or through interaction with a non-expert user, not counting code glued together from existing libraries."
  },
  {
   "id": "gm-no-hallucination-free-chatbots-by-2025",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:55:47Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-rag-is-probably-not-going-to-rescue",
    "title": "No, RAG is probably not going to rescue the current situation",
    "date": "2024-02-23"
   },
   "proposition": "By about February 2025, one year after the post, there will be no perfectly reliable, hallucination-free chatbots."
  },
  {
   "id": "gm-no-superhuman-ai-by-end-2025",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-28T23:56:01Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/10-million-says-we-wont-see-human",
    "title": "$10 million says we won’t see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025",
    "date": "2024-04-09"
   },
   "proposition": "By the end of 2025 there will be no AI system superior to the smartest individual humans, meaning one able to do any intellectual work that any human can do."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-10-million-says-we-wont-see-human-843a7d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:23:29Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/10-million-says-we-wont-see-human",
    "title": "$10 million says we won’t see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025",
    "date": "2024-04-09"
   },
   "proposition": "AI that is smarter than any single human (human-superior AGI) will not arrive by the end of 2025, contrary to Elon Musk's prediction."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-1984-but-with-llms-183cfc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:26:49Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The sentence is a rhetorical warning about intent: Altman and Zuckerberg will 'try to' do what Musk did, meaning shape LLMs to control minds. | Only limited searching on OpenAI's actions..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/1984-but-with-llms",
    "title": "1984, but with LLM’s",
    "date": "2025-06-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-1984-but-with-llms-3c3539",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: But every company ranged from neutral to left, with none clearly right..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/1984-but-with-llms",
    "title": "1984, but with LLM’s",
    "date": "2025-06-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-1984-but-with-llms-513b59",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:00Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/1984-but-with-llms",
    "title": "1984, but with LLM’s",
    "date": "2025-06-21"
   },
   "proposition": "The Chinese government has already made conformity to its Party line a legal requirement; Putin is probably doing the same; and it is not inconceivable that the present US government might pressure companies to do the same."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-1984-but-with-llms-54c24a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:26:49Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/1984-but-with-llms",
    "title": "1984, but with LLM’s",
    "date": "2025-06-21"
   },
   "proposition": "Grok is perhaps slightly closer to the center than other LLMs but nowhere near as far right as Musk."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-1984-but-with-llms-8dfaae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:26:49Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/1984-but-with-llms",
    "title": "1984, but with LLM’s",
    "date": "2025-06-21"
   },
   "proposition": "After failing to make Grok match his personal beliefs, Musk will rewrite Grok's training data (history) so that it matches his views."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-1984-but-with-llms-bbafdd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:26:49Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/1984-but-with-llms",
    "title": "1984, but with LLM’s",
    "date": "2025-06-21"
   },
   "proposition": "If you use the same data as everyone else, it is actually pretty hard to make an LLM that stands out from the pack, short of using some fine-tuning tricks that likely reduce accuracy."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-1984-but-with-llms-ca2320",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: But 64% is short of 'pretty much every', the review stops at 2023, and it does not test any effect on views..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/1984-but-with-llms",
    "title": "1984, but with LLM’s",
    "date": "2025-06-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-1984-but-with-llms-f72a52",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:12:23Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/1984-but-with-llms",
    "title": "1984, but with LLM’s",
    "date": "2025-06-21"
   },
   "proposition": "You could argue that almost every LLM, Grok included, has a slight liberal bias."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for-0f41ab",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for",
    "title": "24 Seriously Embarrassing Hours for AI",
    "date": "2023-01-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for-118c22",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e4 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for",
    "title": "24 Seriously Embarrassing Hours for AI",
    "date": "2023-01-18"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI used sweatshop labor behind the scenes."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for-1323fd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:52Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for",
    "title": "24 Seriously Embarrassing Hours for AI",
    "date": "2023-01-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Court testimony indicates some fairly senior driverless-car employees were apparently unaware of human factors engineering, which is essential when humans are in the loop."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for-222fb0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for",
    "title": "24 Seriously Embarrassing Hours for AI",
    "date": "2023-01-18"
   },
   "proposition": "As of January 2023, no car has completed an intervention-free autonomous drive from LA to NYC."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for-361e6a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:14Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for",
    "title": "24 Seriously Embarrassing Hours for AI",
    "date": "2023-01-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Tesla's 2016 driverless car demo was apparently staged rather than a single unedited real run."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for-8ada97",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:10:39Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for",
    "title": "24 Seriously Embarrassing Hours for AI",
    "date": "2023-01-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Highway miles are the easy part of the promised intervention-free LA-to-NYC drive, and nobody even pretends anymore to be close to making such a drive off the Interstate."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for-cd2743",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:43:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: OpenAI's statement to TIME confirmed only that Sama workers in Kenya contributed to a toxic-content detector later built into ChatGPT..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/24-seriously-embarrassing-hours-for",
    "title": "24 Seriously Embarrassing Hours for AI",
    "date": "2023-01-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-012f05",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:58Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "His predictions since 2022 that pure scaling of LLMs would eventually start to run out appear to have been confirmed in November and December 2024, based on comments from many industry insiders."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-0ab350",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:04:33Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/elapsed/supported, openai forecast_outcome/elapsed/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "In 2025 humanoid robotics will be hyped but no one will release a robot remotely as capable as Rosie; situational awareness and flexibility will remain poor."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-1c5d29",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:04:33Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus's 2024 AI predictions have largely held, with some caveats."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-3fb203",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:04:33Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 was not released in 2024 despite repeated predictions."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-4acef5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:05:09Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Weaknesses in compositionality, factuality and reasoning persist in current AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-5a33a0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:05:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/elapsed/supported, openai forecast_outcome/elapsed/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "AGI will not be achieved in 2025."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-66331f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:05:30Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "In 2025 the US will continue to have very little regulation protecting consumers from generative AI risks."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-9034fd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:17:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: In 2025, generative-AI fabrications in a paid government report led to its revision and a partial refund..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-9a1ed8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:05:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/elapsed/contradicted, openai forecast_outcome/elapsed/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "In 2025 much of the world will increasingly look to Europe for AI regulatory guidance."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-9d5c34",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:05:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs did not markedly improve commercial assistants like Amazon Alexa during 2024."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-a281a1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:14:10Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 measures something else (company Inflection AI is not AI model companies (OpenAI, Inflection, Adept, Character.AI, others)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (company Adept is not AI model companies (OpenAI, Inflection, Adept, Character.AI, others)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 measures something else (company Covariant is not AI model companies (OpenAI, Inflection, Adept, Character.AI, others)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated ",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Most AI model companies have lost money, and at least three have been quasi-acquired with little profit for investors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-c5591b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-cc59d3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:05:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/elapsed/supported, openai forecast_outcome/elapsed/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "In 2025 AI Safety Institutes will offer guidance but have little legal authority to stop dangerous models."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-ccb6d1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:13:35Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 measures something else (company OpenAI is not Leading AI model developers (e.g., OpenAI)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (company OpenAI is not Leading AI model developers (e.g., OpenAI)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 measures something else (company Nvidia is not Leading AI model developers (e.g., OpenAI)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Through 2025, profits from AI models will remain modest or nonexistent while chipmakers continue to do well."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-d39923",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:05:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e4 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Available AI models remain essentially GPT-4 level with incremental changes, and OpenAI has nothing it deems worthy of the GPT-5 label."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-f904d8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:04:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/elapsed/supported, openai forecast_outcome/elapsed/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "No single AI system will solve more than 4 of the Marcus-Brundage AI 2027 tasks by end of 2025."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-f9f222",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:17:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: This statement says the contractual definition stayed unchanged, so it was in force throughout 2025..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-fe41ce",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:51Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/elapsed/supported, openai forecast_outcome/elapsed/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus",
    "title": "25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI",
    "date": "2025-01-01"
   },
   "proposition": "In 2025 AI power consumption will rise and remain a major problem, with few generative AI companies transparent about usage."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-26-months-of-ridicule-and-failure-9b97b9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:39:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: conditions_shown, rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The evidence of progress (e4) would complicate those claims..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/26-months-of-ridicule-and-failure",
    "title": "26 months of ridicule and failure",
    "date": "2024-06-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-5-recent-ominous-signs-for-generative-6a6791",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:03:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/5-recent-ominous-signs-for-generative",
    "title": "5 recent, ominous signs for Generative AI",
    "date": "2025-11-11"
   },
   "proposition": "Sam Altman could not explain how OpenAI would meet its $1.4 trillion in obligations, which is an ominous sign for generative AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-5-recent-ominous-signs-for-generative-b91f1e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/5-recent-ominous-signs-for-generative",
    "title": "5 recent, ominous signs for Generative AI",
    "date": "2025-11-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-cern-for-ai-and-the-global-governance-1afc82",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-cern-for-ai-and-the-global-governance",
    "title": "A CERN for AI and the Global Governance of AI",
    "date": "2023-10-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-cern-for-ai-and-the-global-governance-bfbde1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:34Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023-10, which is not inside the period described (2023-10-01 to 2023-10-26); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-cern-for-ai-and-the-global-governance",
    "title": "A CERN for AI and the Global Governance of AI",
    "date": "2023-10-26"
   },
   "proposition": "We lack substantial controls over current AI, especially as it gets connected to real-world services and APIs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-cern-for-ai-and-the-global-governance-fb739e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-cern-for-ai-and-the-global-governance",
    "title": "A CERN for AI and the Global Governance of AI",
    "date": "2023-10-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-deeply-implausible-premise-is-behind-19daa2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:36:13Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2026-01-02, which is not inside the period described (2025-12 to 2025-12); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2025-11-07, which is not inside the period described (2025-12 to 2025-12); it can only be context; e4 is dated 2025-11, which is not inside the period described (2025-12 to 2025-12); it can only be context; e5 is dated 2026-01-15, which is not inside the period described (2025-12 to 2025-12); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-deeply-implausible-premise-is-behind",
    "title": "The core misconception that is driving American AI policy",
    "date": "2025-12-13"
   },
   "proposition": "China is currently at most a few months behind the US in generative AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-deeply-implausible-premise-is-behind-71deb6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:26Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The only market data are a mid-2025 snapshot of enterprise LLM usage from before the post..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-deeply-implausible-premise-is-behind",
    "title": "The core misconception that is driving American AI policy",
    "date": "2025-12-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-deeply-implausible-premise-is-behind-96f183",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:36:13Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2026-01-02, which is not inside the period described (2025-12 to 2025-12); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2026-01-15, which is not inside the period described (2025-12 to 2025-12); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-deeply-implausible-premise-is-behind",
    "title": "The core misconception that is driving American AI policy",
    "date": "2025-12-13"
   },
   "proposition": "The US is not far ahead of China in the generative AI race."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-deeply-implausible-premise-is-behind-c5c782",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:26Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: With e3, it shows the run lasted about four and a half months before OpenAI took over. | OpenAI took #1 from Google in August 2025, about four and a half months after Gemini 2.5 Pro took it. | The same article traces this lead back to Claude 3.5 Sonnet in June 2024. | That is a lasting lead in coding use, but it is market share, not the capability lead the claim mainly concerns..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-deeply-implausible-premise-is-behind",
    "title": "The core misconception that is driving American AI policy",
    "date": "2025-12-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-few-dark-words-about-chatbots-and-098686",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:08:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: All of this was reported before the end of April 2023..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-few-dark-words-about-chatbots-and",
    "title": "A few dark words about chatbots and death",
    "date": "2026-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-few-dark-words-about-chatbots-and-2a24e1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:57:19Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-few-dark-words-about-chatbots-and",
    "title": "A few dark words about chatbots and death",
    "date": "2026-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus's December 2022 prediction that the first chatbot-related death would occur in 2023 proved correct."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-few-dark-words-about-chatbots-and-6528f0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:57:19Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-few-dark-words-about-chatbots-and",
    "title": "A few dark words about chatbots and death",
    "date": "2026-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": "The harms Marcus warned about years ago (enshittification of the web, mass misinformation, more cyberscams) are now all happening."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-few-dark-words-about-chatbots-and-90183c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:57:19Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-few-dark-words-about-chatbots-and",
    "title": "A few dark words about chatbots and death",
    "date": "2026-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI faces at least eight wrongful death lawsuits related to ChatGPT users."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-few-dark-words-about-chatbots-and-f3fc0a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-few-dark-words-about-chatbots-and",
    "title": "A few dark words about chatbots and death",
    "date": "2026-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-few-words-about-bullshit-2db47c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-few-words-about-bullshit",
    "title": "A Few Words About Bullshit",
    "date": "2022-11-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-few-words-about-bullshit-949528",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-few-words-about-bullshit",
    "title": "A Few Words About Bullshit",
    "date": "2022-11-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-few-words-about-bullshit-e0cacd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-few-words-about-bullshit",
    "title": "A Few Words About Bullshit",
    "date": "2022-11-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-knockout-blow-for-llms-36d91f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-knockout-blow-for-llms",
    "title": "A knockout blow for LLMs?",
    "date": "2025-06-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-model-that-produces-code-which-e36713",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:04:04Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-model-that-produces-code-which",
    "title": "“A model that produces code which compiles and passes the tests it was given is not the same as a model that produces correct, secure, maintainable, well-architected software”",
    "date": "2026-05-01"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI President Greg Brockman sorta kinda acknowledged Marcus's point that code which compiles and passes the tests it was given is not the same as correct, secure, maintainable, well-architected software, and Marcus calls this a rare note of realism from OpenAI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game-067a27",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:12:32Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2024-11, which is not inside the period described (2024-11-01 to 2024-11-24); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game",
    "title": "The new AI scaling law shell game",
    "date": "2024-11-24"
   },
   "proposition": "In recent weeks, much of the AI field has quietly acknowledged that recent unreleased large models are not as powerful as scaling laws predicted."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game-72c4f1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:19:55Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024-11, which is not inside the period described (2024-09-12 to 2024-11-24); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game",
    "title": "The new AI scaling law shell game",
    "date": "2024-11-24"
   },
   "proposition": "The alleged scaling law Nadella emphasized, inspired by OpenAI's o1 (the more time spent on a problem, the more accurate the result), is expensive because it by definition burns up more GPU time, and it is unreliable."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game-cd23c8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:19:55Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game",
    "title": "The new AI scaling law shell game",
    "date": "2024-11-24"
   },
   "proposition": "The new scaling laws, like the original, are empirical generalizations rather than physical laws."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game-fd7eda",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: e3 explanation: \"Contemporary inference-scaling research included explicit predictive models, so the entire field cannot be characterized as directionless experimentation.\" This rebuts a stronger claim than Marcus made. He said the new version is \"much more 'let's try it and see what happens'\", a comparison about the reframed scaling notion. He did not call the entire field directionless, and \"directionless\" is loaded wording..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game",
    "title": "The new AI scaling law shell game",
    "date": "2024-11-24"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-sad-day-for-america-3875e2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:46:28Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-sad-day-for-america",
    "title": "A sad day for America",
    "date": "2025-12-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-sad-day-for-america-c55958",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-sad-day-for-america",
    "title": "A sad day for America",
    "date": "2025-12-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-sad-day-for-america-c9756e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:46:28Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-sad-day-for-america",
    "title": "A sad day for America",
    "date": "2025-12-12"
   },
   "proposition": "The US now has essentially zero AI regulation."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents-3abe98",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:13:47Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents",
    "title": "“A spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools”, right on schedule",
    "date": "2026-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": "Some of the latest AI coding systems have done better than earlier ones, but in mission-critical systems even a small number of errors can be deadly."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents-520def",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The 60% to 80% cost figure comes through a 2026 preprint's summary, not the original studies (Brooks; Lehman). | For AI agents, long-term maintenance proved harder than one-shot code changes..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents",
    "title": "“A spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools”, right on schedule",
    "date": "2026-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents-9c31d2-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Both items come from 2026, only months after the post. | That is the baseline the forecast starts from, but the same paper reports fast improvement..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents",
    "title": "“A spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools”, right on schedule",
    "date": "2026-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents-a40a6b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:45:37Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents",
    "title": "“A spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools”, right on schedule",
    "date": "2026-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents-ae897a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:45:37Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents",
    "title": "“A spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools”, right on schedule",
    "date": "2026-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": "Big problems from AI coding tools, such as AI-related outages at Amazon, have started to arrive as he predicted."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-tale-of-two-ai-capitalisms-08e72e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:03:51Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-ai-capitalisms",
    "title": "A tale of two AI capitalisms",
    "date": "2025-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": "If OpenAI fails, Google could readily take its place, so no government bailout would be required."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-tale-of-two-liars-2cf3ba",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:09:16Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-liars",
    "title": "A Tale of Two Liars",
    "date": "2023-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT's mistruths can look a lot like George Santos' lies, but that resemblance does not mean the machinery in Santos' brain has anything to do with GPT's GPUs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-tale-of-two-liars-d05142",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:19:21Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-liars",
    "title": "A Tale of Two Liars",
    "date": "2023-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT has a truthiness problem that is not deliberate but arises because it doesn't know any better."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-temporary-pause-on-training-extra-a62fb3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-temporary-pause-on-training-extra",
    "title": "A temporary pause on training extra large language models",
    "date": "2023-03-29"
   },
   "proposition": "No details of GPT-4's architecture or training set have been published."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-temporary-pause-on-training-extra-ebc7ba",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-temporary-pause-on-training-extra",
    "title": "A temporary pause on training extra large language models",
    "date": "2023-03-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible-0c2b43",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible",
    "title": "A trillion dollars is a terrible thing to waste",
    "date": "2025-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible-160801-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:20:30Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/not_applicable/unresolved, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/supported.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible",
    "title": "A trillion dollars is a terrible thing to waste",
    "date": "2025-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs have undermined college education, given as an example of collateral damage to society."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible-2ef80f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:20:30Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible",
    "title": "A trillion dollars is a terrible thing to waste",
    "date": "2025-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Essentially all of what Sutskever said was in Marcus's 2018 article 'Deep learning: A Critical Appraisal' and/or his 2022 'Deep learning is hitting a wall', which argued for neurosymbolic approaches to complement neural networks, for more innate constraints, and that the Kaplan scaling laws would eventually reach diminishing returns."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible-3340e3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible",
    "title": "A trillion dollars is a terrible thing to waste",
    "date": "2025-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible-934689",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible",
    "title": "A trillion dollars is a terrible thing to waste",
    "date": "2025-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible-9a927b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:05:35Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible",
    "title": "A trillion dollars is a terrible thing to waste",
    "date": "2025-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Larger LLMs give measurable but apparently diminishing improvements."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible-c04066",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:20:30Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible",
    "title": "A trillion dollars is a terrible thing to waste",
    "date": "2025-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": "To a first approximation, all the big tech companies, from OpenAI, Google, Meta, xAI and Anthropic to several Chinese companies, keep doing the same experiment over and over: building ever larger LLMs in hopes of reaching AGI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible-c72e95",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollars-is-a-terrible",
    "title": "A trillion dollars is a terrible thing to waste",
    "date": "2025-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-about-that-matt-shumer-post-that-1636a3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:18:53Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Trustworthiness beyond security, such as correctness and maintainability, is not measured directly..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/about-that-matt-shumer-post-that",
    "title": "About that Matt Shumer post that has nearly 50 million views",
    "date": "2026-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-about-that-matt-shumer-post-that-19ff78",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:06:40Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/about-that-matt-shumer-post-that",
    "title": "About that Matt Shumer post that has nearly 50 million views",
    "date": "2026-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": "When Shumer describes AIs doing longer and longer tasks on METR's task-time benchmark, he does not mention that the benchmark's criterion is 50% correct rather than 100%, or that the benchmark covers only coding and not tasks in general."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-about-that-matt-shumer-post-that-204d58",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:56:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/about-that-matt-shumer-post-that",
    "title": "About that Matt Shumer post that has nearly 50 million views",
    "date": "2026-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": "Shumer offers no data showing that the latest coding systems can write whole complex apps without errors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-about-that-matt-shumer-post-that-4cf74f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/about-that-matt-shumer-post-that",
    "title": "About that Matt Shumer post that has nearly 50 million views",
    "date": "2026-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-about-that-matt-shumer-post-that-da51c2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:47:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The gain was limited to the 50% success level..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/about-that-matt-shumer-post-that",
    "title": "About that Matt Shumer post that has nearly 50 million views",
    "date": "2026-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-about-that-matt-shumer-post-that-ea6da6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:56:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/about-that-matt-shumer-post-that",
    "title": "About that Matt Shumer post that has nearly 50 million views",
    "date": "2026-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": "No current AI system comes close to reliably doing every five-hour task humans can do without error, and hallucinations and boneheaded errors remain common in everyday use."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-about-that-openai-breakthrough-e28624",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:10:14Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/about-that-openai-breakthrough",
    "title": "About that OpenAI “breakthrough”",
    "date": "2023-11-23"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's touted Rubik's cube robotics breakthrough went nowhere, and OpenAI quietly closed its robotics division a year or two later."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-about-that-openai-breakthrough-e34ad1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:10:14Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/about-that-openai-breakthrough",
    "title": "About that OpenAI “breakthrough”",
    "date": "2023-11-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Autonomous cars are still not reliable enough for prime time; no breakthrough has gotten them over the threshold."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-absolutely-amazing-ant-video-augurs-1c8acc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:35:24Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/absolutely-amazing-ant-video-augurs",
    "title": "Absolutely amazing ant video augurs intellectual mayhem",
    "date": "2024-02-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Soon, scammers will use Sora or open-source counterparts to make photorealistic fake videos just to sell ads."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-absolutely-amazing-ant-video-augurs-9e3fe2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:20Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Both reports concern Sora 2, a later version than the Sora model in Marcus's post..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/absolutely-amazing-ant-video-augurs",
    "title": "Absolutely amazing ant video augurs intellectual mayhem",
    "date": "2024-02-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-absolutely-amazing-ant-video-augurs-c1e501",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:19:33Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/absolutely-amazing-ant-video-augurs",
    "title": "Absolutely amazing ant video augurs intellectual mayhem",
    "date": "2024-02-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-accenture-then-and-now-and-how-it-3a1dd1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:06:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/accenture-then-and-now-and-how-it",
    "title": "Accenture: Then and now, and how it may signify things to come",
    "date": "2026-06-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Accenture's weak quarter appears to be not a blip but another example of corporate AI returns on investment falling short of expectations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-accenture-then-and-now-and-how-it-46110f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:13Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/accenture-then-and-now-and-how-it",
    "title": "Accenture: Then and now, and how it may signify things to come",
    "date": "2026-06-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Claude Code is a special-purpose neurosymbolic system, not a generic chatbot."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-accenture-then-and-now-and-how-it-cd91b0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:13Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/accenture-then-and-now-and-how-it",
    "title": "Accenture: Then and now, and how it may signify things to come",
    "date": "2026-06-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Accenture's large bet on AI does not appear to have paid off."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-accenture-then-and-now-and-how-it-e57c41",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:13Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e4 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/accenture-then-and-now-and-how-it",
    "title": "Accenture: Then and now, and how it may signify things to come",
    "date": "2026-06-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Accenture's rollout of AI has not produced the large gains it hoped for, though AI competition may also be hurting its business."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agents-and-roi-f0a458",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:04:48Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agents-and-roi",
    "title": "Agents and ROI",
    "date": "2026-05-08"
   },
   "proposition": "So far, AI agents appear to have lots of hype but little return on investment, as with generative AI generally."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agents-and-roi-faa534",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agents-and-roi",
    "title": "Agents and ROI",
    "date": "2026-05-08"
   },
   "proposition": "An MIT study and six or seven later studies have shown that generative AI has not delivered real ROI for most businesses."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-by-2027-6476b0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:21:06Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-by-2027",
    "title": "AGI by 2027?",
    "date": "2024-06-05"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as Marcus knows, GPT-4 on its own does not produce original work such as science-fair ideas or original computer systems."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-by-2027-82f7ed",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:21:06Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-by-2027",
    "title": "AGI by 2027?",
    "date": "2024-06-05"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-4 is not equivalent in capability to a smart high schooler."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-by-2027-8e5807",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:10:30Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-by-2027",
    "title": "AGI by 2027?",
    "date": "2024-06-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus says he cannot think of a single measure on which any model existing in 2024 outpaces GPT-4 by as much as GPT-4 outpaced the 2020 state of the art, and says progress is already behind the curve."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-by-2027-c93b79",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-by-2027",
    "title": "AGI by 2027?",
    "date": "2024-06-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-by-2027-ecfc15",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:21:06Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-by-2027",
    "title": "AGI by 2027?",
    "date": "2024-06-05"
   },
   "proposition": "The data points in Aschenbrenner's AGI projection graph are imaginary rather than real measurements."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-isnt-coming-in-2025-and-gpt-5-5f0507",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:07:11Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/elapsed/supported, openai forecast_outcome/elapsed/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-isnt-coming-in-2025-and-gpt-5",
    "title": "AGI isn’t coming in 2025, and GPT-5 probably isn’t either.",
    "date": "2025-01-09"
   },
   "proposition": "AGI will not be achieved in 2025."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-isnt-coming-in-2025-and-gpt-5-cc7d8f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:46:50Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. only a conditional forecast records a condition status",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-isnt-coming-in-2025-and-gpt-5",
    "title": "AGI isn’t coming in 2025, and GPT-5 probably isn’t either.",
    "date": "2025-01-09"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5, when it arrives, will not meet the AGI criteria Marcus has previously laid out."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-isnt-coming-in-2025-and-gpt-5-f81a5c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-isnt-coming-in-2025-and-gpt-5",
    "title": "AGI isn’t coming in 2025, and GPT-5 probably isn’t either.",
    "date": "2025-01-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-versus-broad-shallow-intelligence-040042",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:21:58Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-versus-broad-shallow-intelligence",
    "title": "AGI versus “broad, shallow intelligence”",
    "date": "2025-01-13"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs do not meet his AGI definition: they are unreliable and cannot reliably generalize to novel circumstances."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-versus-broad-shallow-intelligence-4550df",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:21:58Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-versus-broad-shallow-intelligence",
    "title": "AGI versus “broad, shallow intelligence”",
    "date": "2025-01-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI answers are often superficial, confabulate, fail to self-check, and regularly make basic reasoning and math errors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-versus-broad-shallow-intelligence-559075",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:21:58Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-versus-broad-shallow-intelligence",
    "title": "AGI versus “broad, shallow intelligence”",
    "date": "2025-01-13"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs cannot do basic fact checking or sanity checking, which shows they lack resourcefulness."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-1abf63",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:20:59Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": "AI physical reasoning will improve before psychological reasoning, and AGI will not arrive on a single identifiable day."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-22191e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:33:30Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-69594e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-6ccb63",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-78cb9d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:21:06Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the horizon on 2026-10-28 is not_due, not open_horizon; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Humanity will eventually reach AGI, quite possibly before the end of the 21st century."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-7b3991",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-94b41f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-9f6905",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-a3a02c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:10:42Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023-01, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-01-22); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2023-01, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-01-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Integrating AI components into a whole is a huge unsolved problem."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-aa3d11",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-b85960",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:10:42Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus has long been concerned that a fixation on Big Data has sucked the oxygen from many other ideas that might be better."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-bff791",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-c5100a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:09:45Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Most AI money right now is going mostly to large language models, which to Marcus (as to Booch) just seem like an approximation to intelligence rather than the real thing, and so a frustrating distraction."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-d913eb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:20:41Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023-01, which is not inside the period described (2022-11-01 to 2023-01-22); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2023-01, which is not inside the period described (2022-11-01 to 2023-01-22); it can only be context; e4 is dated 2023-01, which is not inside the period described (2022-11-01 to 2023-01-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT has apparently been used to create malware and was used by CNET to produce error-filled news stories."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-eeb229",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:09:45Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-f02fe0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:20:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime",
    "title": "AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?",
    "date": "2023-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": "We do not yet have AI as flexible and reliable as AGI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been-1e53ce",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:06:47Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been",
    "title": "AI Agents have, so far, mostly been a dud",
    "date": "2025-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": "AI agents will not go away and will eventually be among the biggest time-savers humanity has known."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been-22a997",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:14:39Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e3 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been",
    "title": "AI Agents have, so far, mostly been a dud",
    "date": "2025-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Despite close to a trillion dollars invested, the LLM approach has failed to yield systems that reliably handle calendars or bank accounts, let alone PhD-level agents."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been-5c92a3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:06:39Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been",
    "title": "AI Agents have, so far, mostly been a dud",
    "date": "2025-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": "AI coding agents seem to be incurring large technical debt by writing lots of hard-to-debug copypasta code."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been-8603b3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:07:29Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been",
    "title": "AI Agents have, so far, mostly been a dud",
    "date": "2025-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Neurosymbolic AI and other alternatives are wildly underfunded, receiving perhaps 1% or less of total AI investment."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been-9f0741",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:33:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: No accepted measure exists of the economic value generated by AI agents..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been",
    "title": "AI Agents have, so far, mostly been a dud",
    "date": "2025-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been-a29037",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:07:29Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been",
    "title": "AI Agents have, so far, mostly been a dud",
    "date": "2025-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Pure scaling is not getting us to AGI, and returns to scaling are diminishing."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been-ab9cd9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:07:29Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been",
    "title": "AI Agents have, so far, mostly been a dud",
    "date": "2025-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Reliable agents require robust, trustworthy AI, and LLMs are not getting us there."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been-d441b1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been",
    "title": "AI Agents have, so far, mostly been a dud",
    "date": "2025-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus says he just doesn't see how AI agents can work out without neurosymbolic AI that is more deeply integrated in systems as a whole, with rich world models as a central component."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been-e153fc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-have-so-far-mostly-been",
    "title": "AI Agents have, so far, mostly been a dud",
    "date": "2025-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux-0d2294",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:34:53Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: This is the strongest 2025 counterpoint, though they still failed nearly a quarter of tasks..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux",
    "title": "AI Agents: Hype versus Reality, redux",
    "date": "2025-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux-4af992",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:34:53Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The source text does not settle which. | Whether the claim refers to any agent or only to reliable general agents is unresolved..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux",
    "title": "AI Agents: Hype versus Reality, redux",
    "date": "2025-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux-65244e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:09:11Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux",
    "title": "AI Agents: Hype versus Reality, redux",
    "date": "2025-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": "Reliable AI agents cannot be built unless the hallucination problem is solved."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux-6d5392",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:21:55Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux",
    "title": "AI Agents: Hype versus Reality, redux",
    "date": "2025-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": "If what you want is agents with common sense, sound reasoning, tight grounding in reality, reliable instruction-following and enough theory of mind to infer intentions, generative AI alone is not the ticket, because those are exactly the sticking points that have stymied it over and over again."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux-775074",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:07:46Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/elapsed/supported, openai forecast_outcome/elapsed/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux",
    "title": "AI Agents: Hype versus Reality, redux",
    "date": "2025-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": "Throughout 2025 there will be many more reports of AI agents being brittle and failing."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux-9e0e0e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:20:26Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: In late 2025, agents automated very little end-to-end remote work..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux",
    "title": "AI Agents: Hype versus Reality, redux",
    "date": "2025-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux-b8e3b1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:34:53Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the conclusive event's date differs from its evidence",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux",
    "title": "AI Agents: Hype versus Reality, redux",
    "date": "2025-01-15"
   },
   "proposition": "As with generative AI, with AI agents some prompts will work some of the time and some of the time they will give strange results, and it will be difficult to know in advance what to expect."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-as-reality-television-82fbde",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:21:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-as-reality-television",
    "title": "AI as Reality Television",
    "date": "2024-06-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-as-reality-television-82fbde-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:21:24Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review abstained.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-as-reality-television",
    "title": "AI as Reality Television",
    "date": "2024-06-04"
   },
   "proposition": "As of June 2024 the field has found no real solution to hallucinations, unreliability, poor reasoning or shaky alignment in LLMs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-as-reality-television-f38175",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-as-reality-television",
    "title": "AI as Reality Television",
    "date": "2024-06-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine-02d8e5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine",
    "title": "AI bot swarms threaten to undermine democracy",
    "date": "2026-01-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine-0e867c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:57:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine",
    "title": "AI bot swarms threaten to undermine democracy",
    "date": "2026-01-23"
   },
   "proposition": "As of January 2026, bad actors can launch massive bot swarms cheaply and with little risk."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine-770b18",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:57:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine",
    "title": "AI bot swarms threaten to undermine democracy",
    "date": "2026-01-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine-89a5b6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:48:18Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: conditions_shown, rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: So it does not meet the early-resolution rule, which needs Breakout Scale Category 4 or higher or measured opinion shifts at population scale..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine",
    "title": "AI bot swarms threaten to undermine democracy",
    "date": "2026-01-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine-8b5436",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:57:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/not_applicable/mixed, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine",
    "title": "AI bot swarms threaten to undermine democracy",
    "date": "2026-01-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Because AI can generate unique text per post, detecting bots by copy-pasted content no longer works."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine-95adbb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:57:10Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine",
    "title": "AI bot swarms threaten to undermine democracy",
    "date": "2026-01-23"
   },
   "proposition": "AI bot swarms can infiltrate communities, build credibility, and adapt in real time to discover what persuades."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine-b95028",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:57:10Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine",
    "title": "AI bot swarms threaten to undermine democracy",
    "date": "2026-01-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Because people rely on social evidence, fabricated bot swarms can make fringe views appear to be majority opinions."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine-d3b635",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:07:03Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine",
    "title": "AI bot swarms threaten to undermine democracy",
    "date": "2026-01-23"
   },
   "proposition": "If swarms flood the web with duplicative, crawler-targeted content, they can execute 'LLM grooming', poisoning the training data that future AI models (and citizens) rely on."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine-e34d67",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:48:18Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Several dated reports show influence operations using LLMs to produce disinformation within about 18 months of ChatGPT's launch in November 2022. | A second AI developer documents actors using LLMs for influence campaigns, which confirms the trend is broad..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-bot-swarms-threaten-to-undermine",
    "title": "AI bot swarms threaten to undermine democracy",
    "date": "2026-01-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-coding-fantasy-meets-pac-man-9174f8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:07:17Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a causal claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis; only a conditional forecast records a condition status",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-coding-fantasy-meets-pac-man",
    "title": "AI Coding Fantasy meets Pac-Man",
    "date": "2025-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": "In some instances, beginners' overdependence on AI coding tools will produce large amounts of hard-to-maintain spaghetti code and create security problems."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-coding-fantasy-meets-pac-man-943a21",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:19:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-coding-fantasy-meets-pac-man",
    "title": "AI Coding Fantasy meets Pac-Man",
    "date": "2025-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-coding-fantasy-meets-pac-man-b825bc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:21:33Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-coding-fantasy-meets-pac-man",
    "title": "AI Coding Fantasy meets Pac-Man",
    "date": "2025-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": "AI coding tools can help a coder learn a new API, and maybe even a new programming language."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-coding-fantasy-meets-pac-man-d41a82",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-coding-fantasy-meets-pac-man",
    "title": "AI Coding Fantasy meets Pac-Man",
    "date": "2025-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-has-become-saurons-ring-d31fab",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-has-become-saurons-ring",
    "title": "AI has become Sauron’s Ring",
    "date": "2024-05-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing-2ed6e5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing",
    "title": "AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters",
    "date": "2025-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing-415d07",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing",
    "title": "AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters",
    "date": "2025-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing-581ef1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:09:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing",
    "title": "AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters",
    "date": "2025-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": "AI has made great progress in human mimicry since 2014, but current systems still lack much in reasoning, planning, and common sense."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing-77d4ea",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:09:10Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing",
    "title": "AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters",
    "date": "2025-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": "In the new study, ChatGPT without a persona prompt was beaten by ELIZA in the Turing Test."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing-840ee7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:43:23Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing",
    "title": "AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters",
    "date": "2025-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": "Systems like Gemini can do the comprehension challenge a little but often hallucinate heavily, and he does not think they can yet take in a full Simpsons episode, let alone follow four seasons of Succession and explain in real time who is lying to whom and to what end."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing-864ee4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:09:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing",
    "title": "AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters",
    "date": "2025-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": "Those who could afford to build the comprehension challenge prefer to spend research money on scaling."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing-a26607",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing",
    "title": "AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters",
    "date": "2025-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing-cc79d7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:19:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing",
    "title": "AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters",
    "date": "2025-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing-f86ebd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-has-sort-of-passed-the-turing",
    "title": "AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters",
    "date": "2025-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": "He thinks it is fair to say that, slightly over a decade later, the 2014 Turing Test 'winner' Eugene Goostman contributed nothing of lasting value to AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-influencer-hype-gone-wild-62c61f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:09:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-influencer-hype-gone-wild",
    "title": "AI influencer hype gone wild",
    "date": "2024-10-31"
   },
   "proposition": "Practically everyone has tried AI, but users are not always satisfied with the results."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-influencer-hype-gone-wild-756228",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:09:50Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-influencer-hype-gone-wild",
    "title": "AI influencer hype gone wild",
    "date": "2024-10-31"
   },
   "proposition": "The 79% Copilot trial rate among surveyed executives refutes the narrative that people are ignoring AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-influencer-hype-gone-wild-bf52a3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:20:06Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: CNBC reported on its Technology Executive Council survey (e1, dated 2024-10-21)..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-influencer-hype-gone-wild",
    "title": "AI influencer hype gone wild",
    "date": "2024-10-31"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna-181434",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:24:13Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna",
    "title": "AI, layoffs, productivity and The Klarna Effect",
    "date": "2025-08-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Klarna was among the first to announce major AI layoffs and among the first to realize that was a mistake."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna-29ca78",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna",
    "title": "AI, layoffs, productivity and The Klarna Effect",
    "date": "2025-08-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna-72c829",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:07:18Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2025, which is not inside the period described (2016 to 2025-08-23); it can only be context; e3 is dated 2025, which is not inside the period described (2016 to 2025-08-23); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna",
    "title": "AI, layoffs, productivity and The Klarna Effect",
    "date": "2025-08-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Despite Hinton's 2016 prediction, to Marcus's knowledge no radiologist has been replaced by AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna-d16902",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:34:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: So AI did a real share of the work at expert quality, but not most of it..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna",
    "title": "AI, layoffs, productivity and The Klarna Effect",
    "date": "2025-08-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna-d47e6b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:34:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: He gives no measure, threshold, population or period..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna",
    "title": "AI, layoffs, productivity and The Klarna Effect",
    "date": "2025-08-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna-df6dd9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:24:13Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna",
    "title": "AI, layoffs, productivity and The Klarna Effect",
    "date": "2025-08-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Employers often use vague talk of AI to justify layoffs and often don't understand AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-literacy-hallucinations-and-the-26186d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:34:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-literacy-hallucinations-and-the",
    "title": "AI literacy, hallucinations, and the law: A case study",
    "date": "2025-05-24"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-literacy-hallucinations-and-the-2fa8a6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:07:45Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-literacy-hallucinations-and-the",
    "title": "AI literacy, hallucinations, and the law: A case study",
    "date": "2025-05-24"
   },
   "proposition": "LLM hallucinated case citations in legal filings are a routine occurrence, not an anomaly."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-literacy-hallucinations-and-the-bc3597",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:22:45Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-literacy-hallucinations-and-the",
    "title": "AI literacy, hallucinations, and the law: A case study",
    "date": "2025-05-24"
   },
   "proposition": "A lot of lawyers are using tools like ChatGPT to prepare briefs, and many of them still seem shocked when it makes up cases."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-2c2806",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-risk-agi-risk",
    "title": "AI risk ≠ AGI risk",
    "date": "2023-03-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-633189",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-risk-agi-risk",
    "title": "AI risk ≠ AGI risk",
    "date": "2023-03-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-8711d5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-risk-agi-risk",
    "title": "AI risk ≠ AGI risk",
    "date": "2023-03-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-bfbde1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:22:32Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e5 is dated 2023-03, which is not inside the period described (2023-03-01 to 2023-03-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-risk-agi-risk",
    "title": "AI risk ≠ AGI risk",
    "date": "2023-03-28"
   },
   "proposition": "We do not have many controls over current AI, especially now that it can be connected to TaskRabbit and real-world software APIs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-cc9796",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-risk-agi-risk",
    "title": "AI risk ≠ AGI risk",
    "date": "2023-03-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-eb9455",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-risk-agi-risk",
    "title": "AI risk ≠ AGI risk",
    "date": "2023-03-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-f92470",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:22:32Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-risk-agi-risk",
    "title": "AI risk ≠ AGI risk",
    "date": "2023-03-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Because LLMs are now widely known, interesting to criminals, and increasingly given external access, they can do more damage than when they were lab curiosities."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-0f7941",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:20:53Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: It is contradicted if agents are shown to reliably complete realistic multi-step tasks while no major commonsense advance is documented..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years",
    "title": "AI still lacks “common” sense, 70 years later",
    "date": "2025-01-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-55dca2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:08:39Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years",
    "title": "AI still lacks “common” sense, 70 years later",
    "date": "2025-01-05"
   },
   "proposition": "AI agents will require common sense about objects, people, and entities to work reliably in the real world."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-72badf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years",
    "title": "AI still lacks “common” sense, 70 years later",
    "date": "2025-01-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-c9a2f8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:09:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years",
    "title": "AI still lacks “common” sense, 70 years later",
    "date": "2025-01-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Sora's outputs are unreliable pure image streams, not segmentations of the world into objects with properties."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-fa6dd9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:07:59Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years",
    "title": "AI still lacks “common” sense, 70 years later",
    "date": "2025-01-05"
   },
   "proposition": "In recent Optimus demonstrations, all or most of the required commonsense was apparently supplied by human teleoperators."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-22ee05",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:23:21Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023-11, which is not inside the period described (2023-01 to 2023-11-25); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind",
    "title": "AI versus The Clumsy Human Mind",
    "date": "2023-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": "As of November 2023, AI is still pretty poor at maintaining world models, inferring semantics from language, comprehending scenes, navigating the 3D world, and cognitive flexibility, where humans are good."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-47d2eb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:23:21Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023-11, which is not inside the period described (2023-01 to 2023-11-25); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01 to 2023-11-25); it can only be context; e3 is dated 2023-11, which is not inside the period described (2023-01 to 2023-11-25); it can only be context; e4 is dated 2023-11, which is not inside the period described (2023-01 to 2023-11-25); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind",
    "title": "AI versus The Clumsy Human Mind",
    "date": "2023-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": "Machines are far ahead of humans at floating point arithmetic but far behind on cognitive flexibility and long-term planning in unusual situations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-6f5b7c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:23:21Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a causal claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind",
    "title": "AI versus The Clumsy Human Mind",
    "date": "2023-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": "Achieving AGI almost certainly depends on getting disparate algorithms, such as symbolic and data-driven learning methods, to work together well."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-759c54",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:43:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind",
    "title": "AI versus The Clumsy Human Mind",
    "date": "2023-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-a2c5f9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind",
    "title": "AI versus The Clumsy Human Mind",
    "date": "2023-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs pretend to be what the Star Trek computer was, a system with encyclopedic knowledge, broad mathematical, synthetic and inferential abilities, and a hallucination-free natural language interface, which implies they are not that."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-ad98e1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:34:35Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The two papers considered do not show whether any system has or lacks world models..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind",
    "title": "AI versus The Clumsy Human Mind",
    "date": "2023-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-c2bc7d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:22:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind",
    "title": "AI versus The Clumsy Human Mind",
    "date": "2023-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs are good at some kinds of pattern matching but poor at floating point arithmetic."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-fcb735",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:11:03Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e5 is dated 2023-11, which is not inside the period described (2023-11-01 to 2023-11-25); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind",
    "title": "AI versus The Clumsy Human Mind",
    "date": "2023-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": "As of the post, we are not yet at the point of building machines that help us reason critically, overcome bias, reason more reliably than humans in general (not just in limited circumstances), and synthesize information far better, because our early 21st-century knowledge of AI is primitive, and there is a lot of confusion about this."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ais-black-friday-42dc64",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:57:06Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ais-black-friday",
    "title": "AI’s Black Friday",
    "date": "2026-06-06"
   },
   "proposition": "On Friday, June 5, 2026, the tech industry lost roughly half a trillion dollars of market value."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ais-black-friday-4364d8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ais-black-friday",
    "title": "AI’s Black Friday",
    "date": "2026-06-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ais-black-friday-76d223",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:46:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The cited evidence is dated before the June 5, 2026 Google agreement, and the terms of that lease are not among the cited items..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ais-black-friday",
    "title": "AI’s Black Friday",
    "date": "2026-06-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ais-black-friday-bd2775",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ais-black-friday",
    "title": "AI’s Black Friday",
    "date": "2026-06-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ais-black-friday-c7975c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:57:06Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ais-black-friday",
    "title": "AI’s Black Friday",
    "date": "2026-06-06"
   },
   "proposition": "So far, AI has had less impact on real-world productivity than many people expected."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ais-black-friday-f3dca1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:57:06Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ais-black-friday",
    "title": "AI’s Black Friday",
    "date": "2026-06-06"
   },
   "proposition": "If the US government takes stakes in them, Europe and Asia will not trust companies like OpenAI, and maybe not Google either."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ais-jurassic-park-moment-10605e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:11:09Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e5 is dated 2022, which is not inside the period described (2022-01-01 to 2022-12-10); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ais-jurassic-park-moment",
    "title": "AI's Jurassic Park moment",
    "date": "2022-12-10"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs are great at generating misinformation but poor at fighting it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ais-jurassic-park-moment-18dda3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:11:09Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ais-jurassic-park-moment",
    "title": "AI's Jurassic Park moment",
    "date": "2022-12-10"
   },
   "proposition": "For propagandists, LLM hallucinations and unreliability are a virtue rather than an obstacle."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ais-jurassic-park-moment-38e673",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:22:44Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 measures something else (company MosaicML is not Custom LLM training providers (e.g., MosaicML)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e4 measures something else (company MosaicML is not Custom LLM training providers (e.g., MosaicML)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ais-jurassic-park-moment",
    "title": "AI's Jurassic Park moment",
    "date": "2022-12-10"
   },
   "proposition": "The price of a custom-trained large language model (currently under $500,000) will soon drop further."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ais-jurassic-park-moment-acb031",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:11:09Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ais-jurassic-park-moment",
    "title": "AI's Jurassic Park moment",
    "date": "2022-12-10"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI systems like ChatGPT, Dall-E 2, and Lensa are inherently unreliable, frequently making errors of both reasoning and fact, and are prone to hallucination."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ais-jurassic-park-moment-d6dfe4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:43:28Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ais-jurassic-park-moment",
    "title": "AI's Jurassic Park moment",
    "date": "2022-12-10"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs are here to stay and society is almost certain to be overrun by a tidal wave of misinformation."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment-188db4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:34:23Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment",
    "title": "AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead",
    "date": "2025-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment-43163c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:44:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment",
    "title": "AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead",
    "date": "2025-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment-4af1b1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:34:23Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2025-02, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2025-02-17); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment",
    "title": "AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead",
    "date": "2025-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "AlphaGeometry 1 and 2 and AlphaProof are flagship examples of successful neuro-symbolic AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment-7ecc0d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2025-02, which is not inside the period described (2025-02-01 to 2025-02-17); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment",
    "title": "AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead",
    "date": "2025-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "AlphaGeometry does very well on IMO problems but a whole world of geometry lies outside its grasp."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment-9afe42",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment",
    "title": "AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead",
    "date": "2025-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment-c4a43f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment",
    "title": "AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead",
    "date": "2025-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment-fbc5b6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:33:42Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment",
    "title": "AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead",
    "date": "2025-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "Chatbots like ChatGPT have huge gaps in geometric understanding and reasoning."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt-0bf994",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:45:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful; overclaims: LLMs cannot be counted on, which is a big part of why Fortune 500 companies have lost confidence in them..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt",
    "title": "AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic",
    "date": "2024-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt-1141c0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:13:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt",
    "title": "AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic",
    "date": "2024-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs cannot sanity-check their own work."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt-1c26e3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt",
    "title": "AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic",
    "date": "2024-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt-21594b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:44:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024-07, which is not inside the period described (2024-07-01 to 2024-07-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt",
    "title": "AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic",
    "date": "2024-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI systems still make boneheaded errors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt-313fcd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:13:09Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt",
    "title": "AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic",
    "date": "2024-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus says the lack of sanity-checking leads LLMs to flub arithmetic, make boneheaded errors, make stuff up, occasionally defame people and so on, over and over again, in literally every transformer released from GPT-2 to SearchGPT."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt-3b7617",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:12:31Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt",
    "title": "AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic",
    "date": "2024-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus says LLMs literally do not reason through problems, and that in this riddle case ChatGPT instead retrieved an answer to a slightly different problem, which was wrong."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt-6b90d8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt",
    "title": "AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic",
    "date": "2024-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus says OpenAI has for the most part stuck to Hinton and LeCun's dogma, putting the far greater part of its efforts into scaling LLMs and trying hard to eschew symbols and symbolic rules, hiding them behind the curtain when they are used."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt-b9230d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:45:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: No decisive event contradicting the forecast had occurred, but this does not confirm 'never'..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt",
    "title": "AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic",
    "date": "2024-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt-ddb3ee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:44:26Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e6 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (… to 2024-07-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt",
    "title": "AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic",
    "date": "2024-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus says one finds over and over that LLMs are better at things they have encountered before than at things they haven't, and are especially poor when new items differ in important and subtle ways from old ones."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt-e5f129",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:02Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the conclusive event's date differs from its evidence",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt",
    "title": "AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic",
    "date": "2024-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI may never again be as popular as in the past year, but new, better techniques addressing its failings will come."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt-ff00da",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:44:26Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024-07, which is not inside the period described (2024-07-01 to 2024-07-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt",
    "title": "AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic",
    "date": "2024-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI systems still hallucinate."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-america-and-probably-the-world-stands-1e1f18",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:02:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/america-and-probably-the-world-stands",
    "title": "America, and probably the world, stands on a precipice.",
    "date": "2026-02-26"
   },
   "proposition": "If Hegseth forces Anthropic's Dario Amodei to fold, two monstrous precedents will be set."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-america-and-probably-the-world-stands-2bfba4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/america-and-probably-the-world-stands",
    "title": "America, and probably the world, stands on a precipice.",
    "date": "2026-02-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-america-and-probably-the-world-stands-524ea5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:02:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e4 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/america-and-probably-the-world-stands",
    "title": "America, and probably the world, stands on a precipice.",
    "date": "2026-02-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Hegseth is demanding, under heavy threats, full unrestricted US military access to Anthropic's AI for uses including surveillance and autonomous weapons without humans in the loop."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-america-and-probably-the-world-stands-5b4015",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:47:23Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: conditions_shown, citations_correct; overclaims: Hegseth promoted fast military AI adoption in a high-profile public speech, which shows it was a personal, public priority..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/america-and-probably-the-world-stands",
    "title": "America, and probably the world, stands on a precipice.",
    "date": "2026-02-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-artist-fights-back-and-midjourney-043f60",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:23:22Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-artist-fights-back-and-midjourney",
    "title": "An artist fights back, and Midjourney has embarrassed themselves",
    "date": "2023-12-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Midjourney retaliated against Southen by revoking his access and wiping his history on the same day."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-artist-fights-back-and-midjourney-25b426",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:11:32Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-artist-fights-back-and-midjourney",
    "title": "An artist fights back, and Midjourney has embarrassed themselves",
    "date": "2023-12-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Southen's experiment getting Midjourney to produce near-copies of copyrighted film stills took him almost no effort."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-artist-fights-back-and-midjourney-2644ae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-artist-fights-back-and-midjourney",
    "title": "An artist fights back, and Midjourney has embarrassed themselves",
    "date": "2023-12-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-artist-fights-back-and-midjourney-35a55f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:23:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-artist-fights-back-and-midjourney",
    "title": "An artist fights back, and Midjourney has embarrassed themselves",
    "date": "2023-12-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Southen's experiment shows that a Midjourney user could easily infringe copyright without meaning to."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-artist-fights-back-and-midjourney-b260d0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:51:43Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e3 explanation: \"The preserved December 23 report independently describes close resemblance in the examples credited to Southen.\" The quoted paragraph is about 'several examples on X' and is not explicitly credited to Southen in the text..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-artist-fights-back-and-midjourney",
    "title": "An artist fights back, and Midjourney has embarrassed themselves",
    "date": "2023-12-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-entire-industry-is-being-propped-00cf36",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:33:20Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-entire-industry-is-being-propped",
    "title": "An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.",
    "date": "2026-06-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-entire-industry-is-being-propped-0837e5-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-entire-industry-is-being-propped",
    "title": "An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.",
    "date": "2026-06-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-entire-industry-is-being-propped-0b096d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-entire-industry-is-being-propped",
    "title": "An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.",
    "date": "2026-06-08"
   },
   "proposition": "AI is not yet profitable."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-entire-industry-is-being-propped-16b927",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-entire-industry-is-being-propped",
    "title": "An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.",
    "date": "2026-06-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-entire-industry-is-being-propped-6b8b55",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:47:40Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The 2,538x Amazon figure comes from Marcus's post, which relies on a figure posted on X..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-entire-industry-is-being-propped",
    "title": "An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.",
    "date": "2026-06-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-entire-industry-is-being-propped-75e72f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:33:20Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-entire-industry-is-being-propped",
    "title": "An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.",
    "date": "2026-06-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-entire-industry-is-being-propped-a03b89",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-entire-industry-is-being-propped",
    "title": "An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.",
    "date": "2026-06-08"
   },
   "proposition": "The AI productivity boom shows up in investment data but not yet in productivity data."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-entire-industry-is-being-propped-cd9fec-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-entire-industry-is-being-propped",
    "title": "An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.",
    "date": "2026-06-08"
   },
   "proposition": "A 2.7x increase in productivity relative to the entire economy is an enormous ask, though if there is a productivity boost it will perhaps show up first in coding."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-epidemic-of-weirdly-precise-ai-5283b4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:35:58Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis; the horizon on 2026-10-28 is open_horizon, not not_due",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-epidemic-of-weirdly-precise-ai",
    "title": "An epidemic of weirdly precise AI butt facts",
    "date": "2024-10-30"
   },
   "proposition": "Elon Musk has a track record of overoptimistic AI predictions, and his humanoid robot prediction is another one."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-epidemic-of-weirdly-precise-ai-b29a88-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:14Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-epidemic-of-weirdly-precise-ai",
    "title": "An epidemic of weirdly precise AI butt facts",
    "date": "2024-10-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-epistemic-clusterfuck-in-the-making-8959c9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-clusterfuck-in-the-making",
    "title": "An epistemic clusterfuck in the making",
    "date": "2024-05-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-open-letter-to-fei-fei-li-concerning-3e417e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:51:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-open-letter-to-fei-fei-li-concerning",
    "title": "An open letter to Fei-Fei Li concerning California’s proposed AI regulation, SB-1047",
    "date": "2024-08-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-open-letter-to-fei-fei-li-concerning-77feb2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:51:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-open-letter-to-fei-fei-li-concerning",
    "title": "An open letter to Fei-Fei Li concerning California’s proposed AI regulation, SB-1047",
    "date": "2024-08-10"
   },
   "proposition": "SB-1047 does not require AI developers to predict every possible use of their models."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-open-letter-to-fei-fei-li-concerning-927ff2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:44:55Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-open-letter-to-fei-fei-li-concerning",
    "title": "An open letter to Fei-Fei Li concerning California’s proposed AI regulation, SB-1047",
    "date": "2024-08-10"
   },
   "proposition": "As Marcus understands the latest version of SB-1047, its kill switch requirement does not apply to open-source models once they are out of the original developer's control."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-open-letter-to-fei-fei-li-concerning-d34f41",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-open-letter-to-fei-fei-li-concerning",
    "title": "An open letter to Fei-Fei Li concerning California’s proposed AI regulation, SB-1047",
    "date": "2024-08-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-open-letter-to-sam-altman-31688b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-open-letter-to-sam-altman",
    "title": "An Open Letter to Sam Altman",
    "date": "2024-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-unending-array-of-jailbreaking-052f07",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:11:23Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-unending-array-of-jailbreaking",
    "title": "An unending array of jailbreaking attacks could be the death of LLMs",
    "date": "2024-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": "Because nobody knows exactly how LLMs work, nobody can ever issue strong guarantees about them."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-an-unending-array-of-jailbreaking-d2c4c6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:51:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e5 explanation: \"providing material progress against the categorical pessimism\" describes the speaker's position in loaded, evaluative terms that the evidence does not support..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-unending-array-of-jailbreaking",
    "title": "An unending array of jailbreaking attacks could be the death of LLMs",
    "date": "2024-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-anthropic-sues-us-government-with-c6de44",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:33:53Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 is dated 2026-03, which is not inside the period described (2026-02-27 to 2026-03-09); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/anthropic-sues-us-government-with",
    "title": "Anthropic sues US government, with good reason",
    "date": "2026-03-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Anthropic has broad support against Hegseth's actions, which are unprecedented."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-april-fools-bring-may-hallucinations-eb3ae3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:44:19Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/april-fools-bring-may-hallucinations",
    "title": "April fools bring May hallucinations",
    "date": "2025-04-04"
   },
   "proposition": "Current AI only absorbs and mimics data and never reflects critically on it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-are-social-media-and-coordinated-b9ee7b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:09Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/are-social-media-and-coordinated",
    "title": "Are social media and coordinated misinformation campaigns fomenting extremism?",
    "date": "2023-12-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-arr-vs-arr-watch-out-for-this-one-0fb6a7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:01:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/arr-vs-arr-watch-out-for-this-one",
    "title": "ARR vs ARR. Watch out for this one sly trick.",
    "date": "2026-08-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-arr-vs-arr-watch-out-for-this-one-37c253-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:01:48Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2026-08, which is not inside the period described (2026-05-01 to 2026-08-22); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2026-08, which is not inside the period described (2026-05-01 to 2026-08-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/arr-vs-arr-watch-out-for-this-one",
    "title": "ARR vs ARR. Watch out for this one sly trick.",
    "date": "2026-08-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Following the collapse of tokenmaxxing, companies like AT&T are increasingly turning to open source models from other vendors to save costs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-august-5-2024-a-big-day-in-tech-8da6f2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/august-5-2024-a-big-day-in-tech",
    "title": "August 5, 2024, a big day in tech?",
    "date": "2024-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-august-5-2024-a-big-day-in-tech-96006c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/august-5-2024-a-big-day-in-tech",
    "title": "August 5, 2024, a big day in tech?",
    "date": "2024-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-automatic-disinformation-threatens-11c0fe",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:35:37Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/automatic-disinformation-threatens",
    "title": "Automatic Disinformation Threatens Democracy— and It’s Here",
    "date": "2023-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as the author knows, wholesale misinformation is not illegal in the US except arguably in narrow domains like securities fraud."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-belief-in-magic-may-be-declining-393bfd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/belief-in-magic-may-be-declining",
    "title": "Belief in magic may be declining",
    "date": "2024-02-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-belief-in-magic-may-be-declining-bbb886",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/belief-in-magic-may-be-declining",
    "title": "Belief in magic may be declining",
    "date": "2024-02-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-belief-in-magic-may-be-declining-bbb886-3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:11:40Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024-02, which is not inside the period described (2024-02-01 to 2024-02-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/belief-in-magic-may-be-declining",
    "title": "Belief in magic may be declining",
    "date": "2024-02-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Gemini can't even remember who was on Apollo 11."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-big-news-at-the-un-4a65b4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:47:21Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/big-news-at-the-un",
    "title": "Big news at the UN",
    "date": "2026-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": "More than 20 countries signed a call for action on AI that captures much of what Marcus has long advocated."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-big-news-at-the-un-5f3666",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:01:57Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/big-news-at-the-un",
    "title": "Big news at the UN",
    "date": "2026-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": "WannaCry's damage to hospitals could have been largely avoided if the hospitals had kept up with cybersecurity procedures."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-big-news-at-the-un-8a4341",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:12:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/big-news-at-the-un",
    "title": "Big news at the UN",
    "date": "2026-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": "Many questions remain about how the countries' AI call to action will be realized, financed and governed."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-big-news-at-the-un-90ddee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/big-news-at-the-un",
    "title": "Big news at the UN",
    "date": "2026-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-black-mirror-was-a-warmup-act-16fc2b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/black-mirror-was-a-warmup-act",
    "title": "Black Mirror was a warmup act",
    "date": "2025-05-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-black-mirror-was-a-warmup-act-270ef8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:07Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/black-mirror-was-a-warmup-act",
    "title": "Black Mirror was a warmup act",
    "date": "2025-05-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Through these always-on gadgets, LLMs will know everything you say and be in perfect position to use that knowledge to talk you into almost anything."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-black-mirror-was-a-warmup-act-6cfa3c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/black-mirror-was-a-warmup-act",
    "title": "Black Mirror was a warmup act",
    "date": "2025-05-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-black-mirror-was-a-warmup-act-c61f75",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:11:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/black-mirror-was-a-warmup-act",
    "title": "Black Mirror was a warmup act",
    "date": "2025-05-23"
   },
   "proposition": "An article shows that the software that will power these new gadgets can be pretty persuasive, and presumably more so if it knows more about the user."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-black-mirror-was-a-warmup-act-d34460",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/black-mirror-was-a-warmup-act",
    "title": "Black Mirror was a warmup act",
    "date": "2025-05-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-botshit-gone-wild-063089",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:37:21Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review abstained.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/botshit-gone-wild",
    "title": "Botshit Gone Wild",
    "date": "2025-07-04"
   },
   "proposition": "Human use of untruthful LLM-generated content (botshit) has become increasingly abundant over time."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-botshit-gone-wild-406f15",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:39Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/botshit-gone-wild",
    "title": "Botshit Gone Wild",
    "date": "2025-07-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-botshit-gone-wild-6f5ec9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:37:21Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai review doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/botshit-gone-wild",
    "title": "Botshit Gone Wild",
    "date": "2025-07-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-bravo-elonmusk-for-wanting-twitter-7050d7-3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:45:47Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/bravo-elonmusk-for-wanting-twitter",
    "title": "Bravo @ElonMusk for wanting Twitter to become the world’s “most accurate source of information”",
    "date": "2022-11-09"
   },
   "proposition": "The quantity of misinformation will rise, probably exponentially, as cheap LLMs drive generation costs down."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-bravo-elonmusk-for-wanting-twitter-cf4e73",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:45:47Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/bravo-elonmusk-for-wanting-twitter",
    "title": "Bravo @ElonMusk for wanting Twitter to become the world’s “most accurate source of information”",
    "date": "2022-11-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Accuracy depends on some reference standard of truth, and large language models have no way of reasoning about truth."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-ai-agent-incident-toll-has-804f0e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:48:55Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: Shows the count is mostly test-run behavior rather than real-world harms..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-ai-agent-incident-toll-has",
    "title": "BREAKING: AI agent incident toll has risen to tens of thousands",
    "date": "2026-09-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-ai-agent-incident-toll-has-b674bf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:48:55Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: The 2026 models broke out to cheat on a benchmark..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-ai-agent-incident-toll-has",
    "title": "BREAKING: AI agent incident toll has risen to tens of thousands",
    "date": "2026-09-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-ai-agent-incident-toll-has-c22b11",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:48:55Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: This anticipates both the OpenAI and Anthropic incidents. | Its scale was new, even if the failure type had been documented before..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-ai-agent-incident-toll-has",
    "title": "BREAKING: AI agent incident toll has risen to tens of thousands",
    "date": "2026-09-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-autonomous-agents-are-a-23bb39",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:43Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-autonomous-agents-are-a",
    "title": "Breaking: Autonomous Agents are a Shitshow",
    "date": "2026-05-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-bad-news-for-three-of-the-67f98c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:45:47Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-bad-news-for-three-of-the",
    "title": "Breaking: bad news for three of the biggest IPOs in history",
    "date": "2026-05-28"
   },
   "proposition": "There will be bailouts."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-bad-news-for-three-of-the-74916b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-bad-news-for-three-of-the",
    "title": "Breaking: bad news for three of the biggest IPOs in history",
    "date": "2026-05-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-bad-news-for-three-of-the-a60ffa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-bad-news-for-three-of-the",
    "title": "Breaking: bad news for three of the biggest IPOs in history",
    "date": "2026-05-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-bad-news-for-three-of-the-f8ec4d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:48:45Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: Most are funding the overrun instead..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-bad-news-for-three-of-the",
    "title": "Breaking: bad news for three of the biggest IPOs in history",
    "date": "2026-05-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-bad-news-for-three-of-the-f8ec4d-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:48:45Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: \"Agents\" is read as AI agents in general, including the coding agents behind most enterprise tokenmaxxing. | For coding agents, the kind behind most enterprise tokenmaxxing, measured use is about 1,000 times code chat..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-bad-news-for-three-of-the",
    "title": "Breaking: bad news for three of the biggest IPOs in history",
    "date": "2026-05-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-bill-that-would-have-blocked-66c5b7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/supported.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-bill-that-would-have-blocked",
    "title": "BREAKING: Bill that would have blocked OpenAI’s conversion to a for-profit has mysteriously been gutted.",
    "date": "2025-04-07"
   },
   "proposition": "Tens of billions of dollars are at stake in OpenAI's conversion to a for-profit."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-bill-that-would-have-blocked-c89fdc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:05Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-bill-that-would-have-blocked",
    "title": "BREAKING: Bill that would have blocked OpenAI’s conversion to a for-profit has mysteriously been gutted.",
    "date": "2025-04-07"
   },
   "proposition": "California AB-501 as introduced would have stood in the way of OpenAI converting from a nonprofit to a for-profit."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-demis-hassabis-endorses-246dae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:02:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-demis-hassabis-endorses",
    "title": "Breaking: Demis Hassabis endorses preflight safety testing for AI",
    "date": "2026-07-14"
   },
   "proposition": "After the 2023 Senate hearings nothing happened on AI preflight testing, and the policy climate changed markedly when Trump took office."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-demis-hassabis-endorses-ead065",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:48:27Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: It also notes Hassabis hopes to launch the body by year's end, which supports 'strongly'..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-demis-hassabis-endorses",
    "title": "Breaking: Demis Hassabis endorses preflight safety testing for AI",
    "date": "2026-07-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that-3c46bc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that",
    "title": "BREAKING: Expensive new evidence that scaling is not all you need",
    "date": "2026-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that-76f449",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that",
    "title": "BREAKING: Expensive new evidence that scaling is not all you need",
    "date": "2026-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that-77675a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:35:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that",
    "title": "BREAKING: Expensive new evidence that scaling is not all you need",
    "date": "2026-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Musk's concession fits well with Marcus's Feb 3 theory that SpaceX's $250 billion acquisition of xAI was a thinly disguised bailout, since one does not pay $250 billion for a company built wrong from the foundations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that-7cde5b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that",
    "title": "BREAKING: Expensive new evidence that scaling is not all you need",
    "date": "2026-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that-a5e631",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that",
    "title": "BREAKING: Expensive new evidence that scaling is not all you need",
    "date": "2026-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": "It has become clear that Meta's latest model is good but not great, and not what Zuckerberg was hoping for."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that-fc9314",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:04Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-expensive-new-evidence-that",
    "title": "BREAKING: Expensive new evidence that scaling is not all you need",
    "date": "2026-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-florida-seeks-injunction-89dcd4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-florida-seeks-injunction",
    "title": "BREAKING: Florida seeks injunction against OpenAI",
    "date": "2026-09-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-llm-reasoning-continues-de8c76",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:04:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-llm-reasoning-continues",
    "title": "BREAKING: LLM “reasoning” continues to be deeply flawed",
    "date": "2026-02-10"
   },
   "proposition": "As of February 2026, AGI has not arrived, despite AI industry leaders repeating the promise year after year."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-llm-reasoning-continues-edef38",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:04:59Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. only a conditional forecast records a condition status",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-llm-reasoning-continues",
    "title": "BREAKING: LLM “reasoning” continues to be deeply flawed",
    "date": "2026-02-10"
   },
   "proposition": "The latest deep learning systems, including those marketed as reasoning models, still have major problems with reasoning, as a Caltech/Stanford review shows."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly-2b53b6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:05:52Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly",
    "title": "Breaking: Marcus weighs in (mostly) for LeCun",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus and hundreds of other AI researchers, including Sutskever and Sutton, have serious doubts about LLMs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly-679433",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:05:52Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly",
    "title": "Breaking: Marcus weighs in (mostly) for LeCun",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": "LeCun's world-model approach is an opaque, uninterpretable neural network that does not lend itself to reasoning."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly-6c50c5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "malformed_review",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:50:31Z",
   "detail": "A review returned an unusable answer. The final-text check returned an unusable answer for this claim.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly",
    "title": "Breaking: Marcus weighs in (mostly) for LeCun",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": "AI systems need explicit, structured world knowledge to avoid hallucinations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly-751464",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:04Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly",
    "title": "Breaking: Marcus weighs in (mostly) for LeCun",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": "If Marcus's 2020 article is correct, a world model needs to be full of explicit, structured, directly retrievable knowledge about time, space, causality, people, places, objects, events and so on, all of which is needed for formal reasoning."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly-b4a926",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:04Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly",
    "title": "Breaking: Marcus weighs in (mostly) for LeCun",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": "LeCun has worked on JEPA at Meta for the last few years with what appears to be a reasonably large team by academic standards, with not a whole lot to show for it beyond a handful of papers that don't seem earth-shaking."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly-c3d20e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly",
    "title": "Breaking: Marcus weighs in (mostly) for LeCun",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly-da880f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:50:31Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, conditions_shown; overclaims: AI systems need explicit, structured world knowledge to avoid hallucinations..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly",
    "title": "Breaking: Marcus weighs in (mostly) for LeCun",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly-fca2d9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-marcus-weighs-in-mostly",
    "title": "Breaking: Marcus weighs in (mostly) for LeCun",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-agi-is-not-imminent-bf2312",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:23Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-agi-is-not-imminent",
    "title": "Breaking news: AGI is not imminent!",
    "date": "2025-01-20"
   },
   "proposition": "AGI will not be achieved in 2025."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-ai-coding-may-not-be-153c1b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:03:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-ai-coding-may-not-be",
    "title": "BREAKING NEWS: AI coding may not be helping as much as you think",
    "date": "2025-07-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-0ac250",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:50:31Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: That does not fit a failure to meet its obligations..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-1da588",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:54:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: The claim depends on a 'reliable version of the product', which Marcus does not define and which he generally holds does not yet exist. | Provider margins on current products can be observed but are not the product he describes, so they are context only..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-220a31",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:45:40Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 measures something else (metric Inference (model running) cost is not Cost to run (inference/serving cost) of latest models); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (metric Adjusted gross margin (pressured by inference cost) is not Cost to run (inference/serving cost) of latest models); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": "The latest models (other than GPT-5) are costly to run and cost is a growing issue."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-32d3c4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:01Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": "If OpenAI is forced to withdraw its IPO or sharply cut its aspirations, Marcus does not see how it could meet its immense (about $600B) obligations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-36968e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:48Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a causal claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis; e1 measures something else (company Anthropic is not LLM companies (Anthropic, OpenAI)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (company Anthropic is not LLM companies (Anthropic, OpenAI)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": "The end of tokenmaxxing means less revenue for LLM companies, which will hurt their IPOs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-36e433",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:04:53Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 is dated 2026-06, which is not inside the period described (2026-01-01 to 2026-06-10); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": "LLM providers' margins on serving tokens are very slim or negative in many cases."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-42855b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:48Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": "Tokenmaxxing has clearly died, as Marcus and Eisman anticipated."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-4aa1c7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:50:31Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: conditions_shown.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-5595dd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:48Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": "Compared with the rival AI providers he named (Anthropic, Google, maybe Amazon), OpenAI is spending the most money with the fewest assets and has made the most commitments."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-c65451",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:05:02Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. only a conditional forecast records a condition status",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": "When the financial numbers are fully disclosed, they will show Anthropic is more efficient than OpenAI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-cf223f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:11Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": "LLM providers no longer want to offer all-you-can-eat pricing and customers no longer want to pay per-token a la carte."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-d6cfc9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:49:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The evidence packet has no report that OpenAI failed to meet its obligations by 28 October 2026, so the condition has not occurred. | The claim's antecedent has not occurred. | OpenAI is private, so a missed or renegotiated obligation might not become public..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-dc36a7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 measures something else (company OpenAI is not Major LLM providers (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, GitHub/Microsoft Copilot)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (company GitHub (Microsoft) is not Major LLM providers (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, GitHub/Microsoft Copilot)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 measures something else (company Anthropic is not Major LLM providers (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, GitHub/Microsoft Copilot)); it can only be context unless it is deriv",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": "LLM providers have been running their services at a loss, and agents make the loss even bigger."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-f08d4a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:54:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: Reports that most of Amazon's commitment depends on an IPO or an AGI milestone..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-f3a496",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:31Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might",
    "title": "Breaking news, and how the end might begin",
    "date": "2026-06-10"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI will find it hard to IPO at an even higher valuation given the failed SoftBank loan."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need-146f57",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need",
    "title": "“Scale Is All You Need” is dead",
    "date": "2025-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": "At NeurIPS 2025, more and more major figures had realized that pure scaling has failed."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need-2cf2ef",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:07Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need",
    "title": "“Scale Is All You Need” is dead",
    "date": "2025-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Sam Altman bet his entire company on the scaling notion he promoted, and he was wrong."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need-2dc671",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:54:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need",
    "title": "“Scale Is All You Need” is dead",
    "date": "2025-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need-458c0d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need",
    "title": "“Scale Is All You Need” is dead",
    "date": "2025-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Customers are starting to realize the limits of generative AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need-59953e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:03Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need",
    "title": "“Scale Is All You Need” is dead",
    "date": "2025-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": "The belief that massive data could substitute for intelligence has led into the apparent AI bubble."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need-819f34",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:03Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need",
    "title": "“Scale Is All You Need” is dead",
    "date": "2025-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Scaling large language models did not work as a path to general intelligence."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need-dada45",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need",
    "title": "“Scale Is All You Need” is dead",
    "date": "2025-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need-e4214e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:37:19Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need",
    "title": "“Scale Is All You Need” is dead",
    "date": "2025-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Scale-is-all-you-need has been the dominant view for five years, shaping AI research, investment and government policy."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need-f02354",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:45:21Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scale-is-all-you-need",
    "title": "“Scale Is All You Need” is dead",
    "date": "2025-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI is not delivering the hoped-for return on investment for most customers."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scaling-will-never-469c79",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:53:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scaling-will-never",
    "title": "Breaking news: Scaling will never get us to AGI",
    "date": "2024-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scaling-will-never-739ace-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scaling-will-never",
    "title": "Breaking news: Scaling will never get us to AGI",
    "date": "2024-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs will never be reliable, because neural networks (at least in the configurations dominant over the last three decades) have trouble generalizing beyond the space surrounding their training examples."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scaling-will-never-e2b916",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:53:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scaling-will-never",
    "title": "Breaking news: Scaling will never get us to AGI",
    "date": "2024-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-scaling-will-never-f19d72",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:30Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-scaling-will-never",
    "title": "Breaking news: Scaling will never get us to AGI",
    "date": "2024-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-they-hadnt-figured-6360da",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:49:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The packet gives a May 2026 valuation reference only for OpenAI..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-they-hadnt-figured",
    "title": "Breaking news: “they hadn’t figured out how OpenAI would pay for it”",
    "date": "2026-05-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-they-hadnt-figured-a7e51f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-they-hadnt-figured",
    "title": "Breaking news: “they hadn’t figured out how OpenAI would pay for it”",
    "date": "2026-05-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-us-banks-are-taking-26c078",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-us-banks-are-taking",
    "title": "Breaking news: U.S. banks are taking hits from AI agents",
    "date": "2026-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": "With the U.S. administration deregulating, enforcement and investigations will almost certainly decline in both quality and quantity, leaving the world quite vulnerable to ever more audacious attacks."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-us-banks-are-taking-8969ab",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:55Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-us-banks-are-taking",
    "title": "Breaking news: U.S. banks are taking hits from AI agents",
    "date": "2026-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI is increasingly used to write code that coders sometimes don't understand, and such code has in some cases introduced new security holes."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-us-banks-are-taking-9adadd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:05:14Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2026-10, which is not inside the period described (2026-06-01 to 2026-10-22); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2026-10, which is not inside the period described (2026-06-01 to 2026-10-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-us-banks-are-taking",
    "title": "Breaking news: U.S. banks are taking hits from AI agents",
    "date": "2026-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Hackers are increasing their malicious use of AI agents and do not need frontier models to cause mayhem."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-us-banks-are-taking-9fb99b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:05:14Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e4 is dated 2026-10, which is not inside the period described (2026-03-01 to 2026-10-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-us-banks-are-taking",
    "title": "Breaking news: U.S. banks are taking hits from AI agents",
    "date": "2026-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs are highly susceptible to jailbreaking and prompt-injection attacks, and no known solution exists."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-news-us-banks-are-taking-d92932",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-news-us-banks-are-taking",
    "title": "Breaking news: U.S. banks are taking hits from AI agents",
    "date": "2026-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openai-is-probably-toast-301023",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:55:20Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openai-is-probably-toast",
    "title": "Breaking: OpenAI is probably toast",
    "date": "2026-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus thinks OpenAI will someday be seen as the WeWork of AI, and thinks that moment is drawing close."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openai-is-probably-toast-495b6e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:05:38Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openai-is-probably-toast",
    "title": "Breaking: OpenAI is probably toast",
    "date": "2026-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's competitive lead is slipping and its financing appears to be slipping too."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openai-is-probably-toast-591f48",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:55:20Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openai-is-probably-toast",
    "title": "Breaking: OpenAI is probably toast",
    "date": "2026-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Last week (relative to the 2026-02-13 post), Nvidia pulled back on a $100 billion pledge to OpenAI, which Marcus calls a terrible signal to other potential investors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openai-is-probably-toast-9f0229",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:05:38Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. only a conditional forecast records a condition status",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openai-is-probably-toast",
    "title": "Breaking: OpenAI is probably toast",
    "date": "2026-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Because Nvidia pulled back and SoftBank may follow, other potential OpenAI investors will be skittish."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openai-is-probably-toast-c4fa43",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:45:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openai-is-probably-toast",
    "title": "Breaking: OpenAI is probably toast",
    "date": "2026-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": "More and more questions are being raised about OpenAI's financing."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openai-was-warned-months-8c8913",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:06:35Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openai-was-warned-months",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI was warned, months before the Hugging Face incident",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openai-was-warned-months-95b49c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:06:35Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openai-was-warned-months",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI was warned, months before the Hugging Face incident",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": "If OpenAI is sued for harms caused by its agents, the NYT report on ignored warnings will be key evidence and punitive damages will be high."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure-498aa4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:27Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure",
    "title": "Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.",
    "date": "2025-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": "No one, including Altman, has yet figured out how to get to AGI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure-8a0886",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:27Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure",
    "title": "Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.",
    "date": "2025-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure-a7f675",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:27Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure",
    "title": "Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.",
    "date": "2025-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI will throw the kitchen sink at future efforts to build GPT-5, including test-time compute and, Marcus suspects, massive amounts of synthetic data, which appears to work better for semi-closed domains like math and coding than in the open-ended real world."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure-ba2b63",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:54:53Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure",
    "title": "Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.",
    "date": "2025-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Orion, OpenAI's last great effort at pure scaling, has failed, and Marcus infers that OpenAI wants to ship it now because they can get no further with it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure-d8ba25",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure",
    "title": "Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.",
    "date": "2025-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure-e9a1e9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure",
    "title": "Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.",
    "date": "2025-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-security-fiasco-88d0db-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-security-fiasco",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI’s epic meltdown — and how Sam Altman is blowing up Jensen Huang’s reputation",
    "date": "2026-09-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-security-fiasco-b6fa0f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-security-fiasco",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI’s epic meltdown — and how Sam Altman is blowing up Jensen Huang’s reputation",
    "date": "2026-09-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-security-fiasco-bc4ff6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:46:39Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-security-fiasco",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI’s epic meltdown — and how Sam Altman is blowing up Jensen Huang’s reputation",
    "date": "2026-09-25"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's latest account, which Marcus calls about the closest thing to an honest account of what happened, was still a mix of euphemism (calling attacks 'interactions') and partial disclosure."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-security-fiasco-cafe78",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:41Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-security-fiasco",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI’s epic meltdown — and how Sam Altman is blowing up Jensen Huang’s reputation",
    "date": "2026-09-25"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's software apparently attacked countries other than Australia as well."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun-141e83",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI’s unraveling has begun",
    "date": "2026-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun-3f1e2e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI’s unraveling has begun",
    "date": "2026-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun-a489ed",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:50:03Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI’s unraveling has begun",
    "date": "2026-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": "Hardly anyone trusts OpenAI anymore."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun-a489ed-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:11Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI’s unraveling has begun",
    "date": "2026-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": "Hardly anyone trusts OpenAI anymore, and that can't be great for its business."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun-ab937d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:11Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI’s unraveling has begun",
    "date": "2026-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as Marcus can tell, hardly anyone believed Sam Altman's statement that OpenAI paused some frontier RL training for safety reasons."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun-d96f05",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI’s unraveling has begun",
    "date": "2026-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun-e87e40",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 measures something else (metric quarterly operating loss is not quarterly operating loss (including stock-based compensation)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 measures something else (metric quarterly operating loss is not quarterly operating loss (including stock-based compensation)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun",
    "title": "BREAKING: OpenAI’s unraveling has begun",
    "date": "2026-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's quarterly losses quadrupled right before its IPO, which is undesirable."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-sam-altman-concedes-that-675d06",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:54:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-sam-altman-concedes-that",
    "title": "BREAKING: Sam Altman concedes that we need major breakthroughs beyond mere scaling to get to AGI",
    "date": "2026-03-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Scaling has not led to AGI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-sam-altman-concedes-that-75cc24",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-sam-altman-concedes-that",
    "title": "BREAKING: Sam Altman concedes that we need major breakthroughs beyond mere scaling to get to AGI",
    "date": "2026-03-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-sam-altmans-greed-and-dishonesty-3c0a04",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:40:11Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-sam-altmans-greed-and-dishonesty",
    "title": "BREAKING: Sam Altman’s greed and dishonesty are finally catching up to him",
    "date": "2026-03-07"
   },
   "proposition": "Altman publicly claimed to support Dario Amodei while negotiating behind his back and being open to surveillance uses, and this was the last straw for many people."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-sam-altmans-greed-and-dishonesty-d386bb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:40:11Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-sam-altmans-greed-and-dishonesty",
    "title": "BREAKING: Sam Altman’s greed and dishonesty are finally catching up to him",
    "date": "2026-03-07"
   },
   "proposition": "As of March 2026, AGI has not been achieved."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-sam-altmans-greed-and-dishonesty-d386bb-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:54:29Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: An AGI breakthrough would fall under those concerns..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-sam-altmans-greed-and-dishonesty",
    "title": "BREAKING: Sam Altman’s greed and dishonesty are finally catching up to him",
    "date": "2026-03-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-sycophantic-ai-distorts-bc5cc3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:46:34Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-sycophantic-ai-distorts",
    "title": "Breaking: “sycophantic AI distorts belief, manufacturing certainty where there should be doubt”",
    "date": "2026-03-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Sycophantic AI acting as a personal echo chamber can keep users from finding good ideas."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-the-ai-2027-doomsday-scenario-1f641e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:55:06Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-the-ai-2027-doomsday-scenario",
    "title": "BREAKING: The AI 2027 doomsday scenario has officially been postponed",
    "date": "2025-11-21"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as he can tell, the White House is getting its cues from the podcast crowd (All-In, Dwarkesh, Lex, Hard Fork, etc.), and those podcasters refused to let him voice a rebuttal."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-the-ai-2027-doomsday-scenario-541074",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-the-ai-2027-doomsday-scenario",
    "title": "BREAKING: The AI 2027 doomsday scenario has officially been postponed",
    "date": "2025-11-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-the-ai-2027-doomsday-scenario-db4ec6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:46:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-the-ai-2027-doomsday-scenario",
    "title": "BREAKING: The AI 2027 doomsday scenario has officially been postponed",
    "date": "2025-11-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-trump-asks-the-impossible-84c0d4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:48:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-trump-asks-the-impossible",
    "title": "Breaking: Trump asks the impossible of Anthropic",
    "date": "2026-06-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-trump-asks-the-impossible-9035a9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:48:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-trump-asks-the-impossible",
    "title": "Breaking: Trump asks the impossible of Anthropic",
    "date": "2026-06-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-breaking-trump-asks-the-impossible-aa96a1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:48:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-trump-asks-the-impossible",
    "title": "Breaking: Trump asks the impossible of Anthropic",
    "date": "2026-06-17"
   },
   "proposition": "For LLMs, it is not possible to guarantee that guardrails cannot be circumvented by jailbreaks."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-c39-41d678",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:46Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/c39",
    "title": "𝗼𝟯 “𝗔𝗥𝗖 𝗔𝗚𝗜” 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗺 𝗺𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱: 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝘁 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱, 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘄𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀",
    "date": "2024-12-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-c39-82f67b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/c39",
    "title": "𝗼𝟯 “𝗔𝗥𝗖 𝗔𝗚𝗜” 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗺 𝗺𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱: 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝘁 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱, 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘄𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀",
    "date": "2024-12-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-c39-d89494",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:38:49Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024-12, which is not inside the period described (2024-12 to 2024-12-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/c39",
    "title": "𝗼𝟯 “𝗔𝗥𝗖 𝗔𝗚𝗜” 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗺 𝗺𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱: 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝘁 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱, 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘄𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀",
    "date": "2024-12-22"
   },
   "proposition": "o3 did not take the ARC test cold with only a few sample items as a human would."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-caricaturing-noam-chomsky-044def",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:53:28Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/caricaturing-noam-chomsky",
    "title": "Caricaturing Noam Chomsky",
    "date": "2023-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-caricaturing-noam-chomsky-4d2289",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:49:00Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/caricaturing-noam-chomsky",
    "title": "Caricaturing Noam Chomsky",
    "date": "2023-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": "What Marcus said and what Chomsky said is correct: the system (ChatGPT) really isn't up to the job."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-caricaturing-noam-chomsky-4fe53c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:54:43Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The claim says that even when LLMs give correct outputs, they 'rarely if ever' derive the same abstractions a human or a symbolic machine would..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/caricaturing-noam-chomsky",
    "title": "Caricaturing Noam Chomsky",
    "date": "2023-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-caricaturing-noam-chomsky-6fc570",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:48:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/caricaturing-noam-chomsky",
    "title": "Caricaturing Noam Chomsky",
    "date": "2023-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs certainly have not taught us anything whatsoever about why the world is as it is rather than some other way, and the same goes for why the human mind is as it is."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-caricaturing-noam-chomsky-af3278",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/caricaturing-noam-chomsky",
    "title": "Caricaturing Noam Chomsky",
    "date": "2023-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT is wildly stochastic and unreliable, so single examples of its behavior prove little."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-caricaturing-noam-chomsky-d998ed",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:39:13Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/caricaturing-noam-chomsky",
    "title": "Caricaturing Noam Chomsky",
    "date": "2023-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": "Minerva's arithmetic failures are most parsimoniously explained by pattern recognition over stored examples rather than genuine understanding of multiplication."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-casey-newton-strikes-out-265d67",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:48:35Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/casey-newton-strikes-out",
    "title": "Casey (Newton) Strikes Out",
    "date": "2024-12-11"
   },
   "proposition": "All seven of Marcus's March 2024 predictions that generative AI economics would be problematic have held."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-casey-newton-strikes-out-631d72",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:48:52Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-12-11); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/casey-newton-strikes-out",
    "title": "Casey (Newton) Strikes Out",
    "date": "2024-12-11"
   },
   "proposition": "Edge cases remain a serious problem for driverless cars, with no generalizable solution yet."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-casey-newton-strikes-out-825e21",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:54:49Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/casey-newton-strikes-out",
    "title": "Casey (Newton) Strikes Out",
    "date": "2024-12-11"
   },
   "proposition": "Current gains in generative AI are smaller than the rapid gains of 2020-2022."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-casey-newton-strikes-out-a897e2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:53:51Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: A 2024 benchmark of several open and closed video models found that even the best one followed physical laws in under 40% of cases. | It did not test Sora..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/casey-newton-strikes-out",
    "title": "Casey (Newton) Strikes Out",
    "date": "2024-12-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-casey-newton-strikes-out-c74d7e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:53:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/casey-newton-strikes-out",
    "title": "Casey (Newton) Strikes Out",
    "date": "2024-12-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-casey-newton-strikes-out-d74389",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:54:49Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/casey-newton-strikes-out",
    "title": "Casey (Newton) Strikes Out",
    "date": "2024-12-11"
   },
   "proposition": "For 18 months, AI results have looked incremental rather than exponential; Gemini 2 is only modestly better than Gemini 1.5."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-casey-newton-strikes-out-daebaf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:48:58Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/casey-newton-strikes-out",
    "title": "Casey (Newton) Strikes Out",
    "date": "2024-12-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-casey-newton-strikes-out-e58d98",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:47:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-12-11); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/casey-newton-strikes-out",
    "title": "Casey (Newton) Strikes Out",
    "date": "2024-12-11"
   },
   "proposition": "There is growing evidence that there is not enough data to keep scaling LLMs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-and-delusions-an-important-7b33e1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:54:40Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-and-delusions-an-important",
    "title": "ChatGPT and delusions: an important new inside look at OpenAI",
    "date": "2025-11-23"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI ignored many internal warnings about ChatGPT's effects on users' mental health."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-at-age-two-159e00",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:49:47Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024-11, which is not inside the period described (2022-11-30 to 2024-11-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-at-age-two",
    "title": "ChatGPT, at Age Two",
    "date": "2024-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT's tendency to generate fabricated content is as strong as ever in 2024."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-at-age-two-1b8521",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-at-age-two",
    "title": "ChatGPT, at Age Two",
    "date": "2024-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-at-age-two-335660",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:49:47Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2024-05, which is not inside the period described (2024-05-13 to 2024-11-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-at-age-two",
    "title": "ChatGPT, at Age Two",
    "date": "2024-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": "None of the industry's efforts (scaling, RAG, prompting) has eliminated hallucinations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-at-age-two-8142fc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:49:47Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-11-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-at-age-two",
    "title": "ChatGPT, at Age Two",
    "date": "2024-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": "LLM hallucinations may have declined but have not vanished."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-at-age-two-94dad3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:54:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-at-age-two",
    "title": "ChatGPT, at Age Two",
    "date": "2024-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-at-age-two-ada8d0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:49:30Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-11-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-at-age-two",
    "title": "ChatGPT, at Age Two",
    "date": "2024-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Hallucinations are still a regular occurrence in LLMs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-at-age-two-dd5693",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:55:19Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-at-age-two",
    "title": "ChatGPT, at Age Two",
    "date": "2024-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Many Fortune 500 companies are somewhat underwhelmed by the real-world results they get from ChatGPT."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-at-age-two-e776e7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:49:30Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 is dated 2024-11, which is not inside the period described (2023-01 to 2024-11-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-at-age-two",
    "title": "ChatGPT, at Age Two",
    "date": "2024-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Despite projections by investors and tech companies, hallucinations and errors of misunderstanding in ChatGPT did not soon recede."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-at-age-two-ec8d71",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:49:30Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2024-05, which is not inside the period described (2024-05-13 to 2024-11-28); it can only be context; e3 is dated 2024-11, which is not inside the period described (2024-05-13 to 2024-11-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-at-age-two",
    "title": "ChatGPT, at Age Two",
    "date": "2024-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Hallucinations in LLMs still have not gone away despite scaling and RAG."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-at-age-two-eebc1e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:48:45Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e6 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-11-28); it can only be context; e7 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-11-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-at-age-two",
    "title": "ChatGPT, at Age Two",
    "date": "2024-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": "RAG, scaling and system prompts have not eradicated LLMs' inherent tendency to hallucinate."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-blows-mapmaking-101-89891d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:41Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-blows-mapmaking-101",
    "title": "ChatGPT Blows Mapmaking 101",
    "date": "2025-05-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-blows-mapmaking-101-c61715",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:54:39Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-blows-mapmaking-101",
    "title": "ChatGPT Blows Mapmaking 101",
    "date": "2025-05-12"
   },
   "proposition": "Newer models' ability to reliably follow instructions still seems lacking."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-has-gone-berserk-e2f41e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:48:33Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-has-gone-berserk",
    "title": "ChatGPT has gone berserk",
    "date": "2024-02-21"
   },
   "proposition": "No one has ever been able to engineer safety guarantees for generative AI systems."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-in-shambles-25cbdb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:56:04Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-in-shambles",
    "title": "ChatGPT in Shambles",
    "date": "2025-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": "In Marcus's test, ChatGPT could not count the vowels in the names of Canadian provinces correctly."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-in-shambles-3b64e2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-in-shambles",
    "title": "ChatGPT in Shambles",
    "date": "2025-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-chatgpt-in-shambles-a7ccea",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/chatgpt-in-shambles",
    "title": "ChatGPT in Shambles",
    "date": "2025-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-checking-the-math-behind-openai-and-0a7f8d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/checking-the-math-behind-openai-and",
    "title": "Checking the math behind OpenAI and Anthropic’s latest headlines",
    "date": "2026-05-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-checking-the-math-behind-openai-and-596770",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:54:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: On May 20, WIRED reported unspecified reduced SpaceX compute fees for May and June before a $1.25 billion monthly rate took effect [e2]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/checking-the-math-behind-openai-and",
    "title": "Checking the math behind OpenAI and Anthropic’s latest headlines",
    "date": "2026-05-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-checking-the-math-behind-openai-and-c178f9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/checking-the-math-behind-openai-and",
    "title": "Checking the math behind OpenAI and Anthropic’s latest headlines",
    "date": "2026-05-21"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI has not disclosed how many prompts it tried or how many failed, so the success rate is unknown."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-checking-the-math-behind-openai-and-e57e9a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/checking-the-math-behind-openai-and",
    "title": "Checking the math behind OpenAI and Anthropic’s latest headlines",
    "date": "2026-05-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-china-catches-up-55f7b0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:50:52Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-catches-up",
    "title": "China catches up",
    "date": "2026-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "The current LLM paradigm is a wildly inefficient brute-force approach that is expensive to develop and requires vast resources to run."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us-19ef3e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us",
    "title": "China has all but caught up. The US is not going to “win” the AI war. Here’s what we should do instead.",
    "date": "2026-07-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us-622584",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:54:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us",
    "title": "China has all but caught up. The US is not going to “win” the AI war. Here’s what we should do instead.",
    "date": "2026-07-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us-834d70",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:50:55Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us",
    "title": "China has all but caught up. The US is not going to “win” the AI war. Here’s what we should do instead.",
    "date": "2026-07-20"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI and Anthropic are mostly money-losing ventures in an industry that has not convincingly established profitability."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us-9f6377",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us",
    "title": "China has all but caught up. The US is not going to “win” the AI war. Here’s what we should do instead.",
    "date": "2026-07-20"
   },
   "proposition": "If OpenAI and Anthropic go under, Google, Microsoft and Amazon aren't going anywhere and can provide for US needs, especially classified ones where Chinese models presumably won't be welcome."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us-df9914",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:50:56Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us",
    "title": "China has all but caught up. The US is not going to “win” the AI war. Here’s what we should do instead.",
    "date": "2026-07-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Moonshot.AI's open-weight Kimi K3 is largely on a par with the best American models."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us-eae9fa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us",
    "title": "China has all but caught up. The US is not going to “win” the AI war. Here’s what we should do instead.",
    "date": "2026-07-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-circular-financing-aint-what-it-used-2bc93b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:54:36Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: Anthropic's October 26, 2026 filing reports net losses through June 2026, alongside positive operating cash flow and adjusted operating income for the first half of 2026; net losses alone therefore do not establish cash dependence [e8]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/circular-financing-aint-what-it-used",
    "title": "Circular financing ain’t what it used to be",
    "date": "2026-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-circular-financing-aint-what-it-used-db5183",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:50:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/circular-financing-aint-what-it-used",
    "title": "Circular financing ain’t what it used to be",
    "date": "2026-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Creditors are getting pretty leery of the whole AI circular-financing boom, as Axios reported."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-clarification-from-ray-kurzweil-c38779",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:09:51Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: conditions_shown.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/clarification-from-ray-kurzweil",
    "title": "Clarification from Ray Kurzweil",
    "date": "2024-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-claude-mythos-evaluated-6ffdd9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/claude-mythos-evaluated",
    "title": "Claude Mythos, evaluated",
    "date": "2026-04-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Claude Mythos Preview was somewhat oversold in media coverage."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-claude-mythos-evaluated-6ffdd9-3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:50:15Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/claude-mythos-evaluated",
    "title": "Claude Mythos, evaluated",
    "date": "2026-04-13"
   },
   "proposition": "There has been a sudden profusion of AI agent-written code, which may be both weakly defended and vulnerable to attack."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-code-red-for-humanity-0aae75",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:54:36Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/code-red-for-humanity",
    "title": "30 seconds to midnight? 15?",
    "date": "2026-02-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-code-red-for-humanity-75c8a2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:50:47Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/code-red-for-humanity",
    "title": "30 seconds to midnight? 15?",
    "date": "2026-02-25"
   },
   "proposition": "The Trump administration seems hellbent on using AI absolutely everywhere and seems prepared to coerce Anthropic (and presumably, ultimately, other companies) into allowing the administration to use that AI however it pleases, including for mass surveillance and to guide autonomous weapons."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-code-red-for-humanity-f682cc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:50:47Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/code-red-for-humanity",
    "title": "30 seconds to midnight? 15?",
    "date": "2026-02-25"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI appears to have been used already in the Maduro raids, to write tariff regulations, and in thousands of other places."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-coming-soon-new-york-citys-hearing-58370f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:51:05Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/coming-soon-new-york-citys-hearing",
    "title": "Coming soon: New York City’s hearing on AI risks",
    "date": "2026-10-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Since May 2023 the US Senate has done nothing to set up independent regulatory review for AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-coming-soon-new-york-citys-hearing-bcbbf1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/coming-soon-new-york-citys-hearing",
    "title": "Coming soon: New York City’s hearing on AI risks",
    "date": "2026-10-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-coming-soon-new-york-citys-hearing-cdc7f4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:54:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/coming-soon-new-york-citys-hearing",
    "title": "Coming soon: New York City’s hearing on AI risks",
    "date": "2026-10-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-complementary-remarks-from-gary-marcus-0b7312",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:51:03Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/complementary-remarks-from-gary-marcus",
    "title": "Brief remark on OpenAI’s giant math drop",
    "date": "2026-10-07"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI did not disclose the procedure used to produce its new math results."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-complementary-remarks-from-gary-marcus-2eadb4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/complementary-remarks-from-gary-marcus",
    "title": "Brief remark on OpenAI’s giant math drop",
    "date": "2026-10-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-complementary-remarks-from-gary-marcus-3898fb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:55:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/complementary-remarks-from-gary-marcus",
    "title": "Brief remark on OpenAI’s giant math drop",
    "date": "2026-10-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-complementary-remarks-from-gary-marcus-c30512",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:55:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/complementary-remarks-from-gary-marcus",
    "title": "Brief remark on OpenAI’s giant math drop",
    "date": "2026-10-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-complementary-remarks-from-gary-marcus-fb3d03",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/complementary-remarks-from-gary-marcus",
    "title": "Brief remark on OpenAI’s giant math drop",
    "date": "2026-10-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached-1eca32",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached",
    "title": "CONFIRMED: LLMs have indeed reached a point of diminishing returns",
    "date": "2024-11-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Everyone is landing in more or less the same place, which leaves nobody with a moat."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached-835683",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:51:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached",
    "title": "CONFIRMED: LLMs have indeed reached a point of diminishing returns",
    "date": "2024-11-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached-cad132",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:02Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached",
    "title": "CONFIRMED: LLMs have indeed reached a point of diminishing returns",
    "date": "2024-11-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached-e7833c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached",
    "title": "CONFIRMED: LLMs have indeed reached a point of diminishing returns",
    "date": "2024-11-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached-f6ef6b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:55:12Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached",
    "title": "CONFIRMED: LLMs have indeed reached a point of diminishing returns",
    "date": "2024-11-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-china-devastate-the-us-without-5ba5d9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/not_applicable/mixed, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-china-devastate-the-us-without",
    "title": "Could China devastate the US without firing a shot?",
    "date": "2025-10-27"
   },
   "proposition": "The lack of a technical moat among LLM developers leads to price wars."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-china-devastate-the-us-without-6cc587",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/not_applicable/mixed, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-china-devastate-the-us-without",
    "title": "Could China devastate the US without firing a shot?",
    "date": "2025-10-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Pursuing LLMs to the exclusion of almost all other ideas leads to a situation with essentially zero technical moat."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-china-devastate-the-us-without-a43222",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-china-devastate-the-us-without",
    "title": "Could China devastate the US without firing a shot?",
    "date": "2025-10-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-china-devastate-the-us-without-b3a50c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:39Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-china-devastate-the-us-without",
    "title": "Could China devastate the US without firing a shot?",
    "date": "2025-10-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-cruise-be-the-theranos-of-ai-c6077c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:51:56Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-cruise-be-the-theranos-of-ai",
    "title": "Could Cruise be the Theranos of AI? And is there a dark secret at the core of the entire driverless car industry?",
    "date": "2023-11-04"
   },
   "proposition": "Cruise's vehicles, presented as autonomous, currently appear to be far from autonomous."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-cruise-be-the-theranos-of-ai-c851bb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:51:56Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-cruise-be-the-theranos-of-ai",
    "title": "Could Cruise be the Theranos of AI? And is there a dark secret at the core of the entire driverless car industry?",
    "date": "2023-11-04"
   },
   "proposition": "If Cruise's vehicles really need an intervention every few miles and 1.5 external operators per vehicle, then, subject to an important caveat about what the numbers mean, they don't seem to be even remotely close to what Cruise has been alleging to the public."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-generative-ai-could-turn-out-0523d4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:53:55Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-generative-ai-could-turn-out",
    "title": "Could generative AI turn out to be the tech industry’s Vietnam? And could public backlash lead AI to a better place?",
    "date": "2026-05-20"
   },
   "proposition": "As of May 2026, signs that Trump is distancing himself from pro-AI-industry policy have appeared sooner than Marcus expected."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-generative-ai-could-turn-out-ac95fa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-generative-ai-could-turn-out",
    "title": "Could generative AI turn out to be the tech industry’s Vietnam? And could public backlash lead AI to a better place?",
    "date": "2026-05-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-generative-ai-could-turn-out-d03693",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:53:55Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the result turns on our interpretation rather than the speaker's words, so it cannot be scored without a stated plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-generative-ai-could-turn-out",
    "title": "Could generative AI turn out to be the tech industry’s Vietnam? And could public backlash lead AI to a better place?",
    "date": "2026-05-20"
   },
   "proposition": "In a reversal, Trump is now actively considering an FDA-like pre-release safety check for major AI applications, possibly prompted by fears over Anthropic's Mythos."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-gpt-5-revolutionize-military-3f1d9b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-gpt-5-revolutionize-military",
    "title": "Could GPT-5 revolutionize military strategy?",
    "date": "2024-02-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-gpt-5-revolutionize-military-ac61f1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:58Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-gpt-5-revolutionize-military",
    "title": "Could GPT-5 revolutionize military strategy?",
    "date": "2024-02-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-gpt-5-revolutionize-military-ed7862",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:04Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2023-03, which is not inside the period described (2023-03-14 to 2024-02-07); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-gpt-5-revolutionize-military",
    "title": "Could GPT-5 revolutionize military strategy?",
    "date": "2024-02-07"
   },
   "proposition": "General-purpose generative AI systems like GPT-4 cannot even handle static game situations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-could-we-all-be-doomed-without-ranked-28dffb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/could-we-all-be-doomed-without-ranked",
    "title": "Could we all be doomed, without ranked-choice voting?",
    "date": "2023-08-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-covert-racism-in-llms-30aa57",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/not_applicable/supported, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/covert-racism-in-llms",
    "title": "Covert racism in LLMs",
    "date": "2024-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Scaling up LLMs makes their covert racism worse."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-covert-racism-in-llms-c924a0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:58Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/covert-racism-in-llms",
    "title": "Covert racism in LLMs",
    "date": "2024-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus says he does not see an easy fix for covert racism in LLMs, and notes that the authors showed simply adding human feedback made it worse."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-covert-racism-in-llms-dddc08",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:58Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/covert-racism-in-llms",
    "title": "Covert racism in LLMs",
    "date": "2024-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": "In many ways it is unknown how LLMs are actually used in real-world decisions such as housing, loans, and criminal proceedings, but there is now strong evidence to suspect covert racism to the extent they are used in such cases."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-covert-racism-in-llms-ebba76",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:52:04Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/covert-racism-in-llms",
    "title": "Covert racism in LLMs",
    "date": "2024-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Trivial dialect choices in prompt wording appear to drive much of the covert racism in LLMs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-crisis-point-in-ai-56514c-3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:53:24Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/crisis-point-in-ai",
    "title": "Crisis point in AI?",
    "date": "2023-11-10"
   },
   "proposition": "The draft EU AI Act is the closest thing that exists to AI regulation with real teeth."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-critical-national-security-questions-564368",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:07:58Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/critical-national-security-questions",
    "title": "Critical national security questions should not be decided unilaterally by unelected tech leaders",
    "date": "2023-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-critical-national-security-questions-9d30fe",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/critical-national-security-questions",
    "title": "Critical national security questions should not be decided unilaterally by unelected tech leaders",
    "date": "2023-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-d28-076e39",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:54:00Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-08-27); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/d28",
    "title": "𝐩(𝐝𝐨𝐨𝐦)",
    "date": "2023-08-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Much of the risk from AI does not come from uncontrollable superintelligence."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-d28-bc06c4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/d28",
    "title": "𝐩(𝐝𝐨𝐨𝐦)",
    "date": "2023-08-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dall-es-new-guardrails-fast-furious-37170d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:54:54Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dall-es-new-guardrails-fast-furious",
    "title": "DALL-E’s New Guardrails: Fast, Furious, and Far from Airtight",
    "date": "2024-01-10"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI does not want to take approaches as conventional as training only on public domain data or licensing other data, and instead wants to keep using copyrighted materials, apparently without paying for them."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dall-es-new-guardrails-fast-furious-3f7689",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:54:54Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dall-es-new-guardrails-fast-furious",
    "title": "DALL-E’s New Guardrails: Fast, Furious, and Far from Airtight",
    "date": "2024-01-10"
   },
   "proposition": "Training only on public domain data, or licensing other data, would decisively address the copyright regurgitation problem."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dall-es-new-guardrails-fast-furious-6241ce",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:18Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The post's screenshots are images the reviewer could not read, so their content was not checked..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dall-es-new-guardrails-fast-furious",
    "title": "DALL-E’s New Guardrails: Fast, Furious, and Far from Airtight",
    "date": "2024-01-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dall-es-new-guardrails-fast-furious-acc522",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dall-es-new-guardrails-fast-furious",
    "title": "DALL-E’s New Guardrails: Fast, Furious, and Far from Airtight",
    "date": "2024-01-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dall-es-new-guardrails-fast-furious-ddb599",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dall-es-new-guardrails-fast-furious",
    "title": "DALL-E’s New Guardrails: Fast, Furious, and Far from Airtight",
    "date": "2024-01-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the-153ca0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:56:01Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2026-04, which is not inside the period described (2026-04-01 to 2026-04-27); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the",
    "title": "Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters",
    "date": "2026-04-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Coding agents are not all we need, contrary to Amodei's hype."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the-7c8513",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:56:01Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2026-04, which is not inside the period described (2026-04-01 to 2026-04-27); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the",
    "title": "Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters",
    "date": "2026-04-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Tools like Claude Code can be very useful and are neurosymbolic rather than pure LLMs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the-94a2a8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:55:14Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the",
    "title": "Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters",
    "date": "2026-04-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Coding agents like Cursor apparently don't always follow basic software principles such as keeping independent backups."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the-ac6439",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the",
    "title": "Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters",
    "date": "2026-04-27"
   },
   "proposition": "It seems to Marcus that Amodei's claim that we can eliminate not just line coders but also the people who architect and maintain systems vastly overhypes what autonomous AI is currently in a position to do."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the-da4084",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:55:14Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2026-04, which is not inside the period described (2026-04-01 to 2026-04-27); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the",
    "title": "Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters",
    "date": "2026-04-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Coding agents and most of generative AI can't reliably follow rules and therefore can't be trusted."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the-e86ab7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:55:14Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2026-04, which is not inside the period described (2026-04-01 to 2026-04-27); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the",
    "title": "Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters",
    "date": "2026-04-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Skilled coders can use vibe-coding tools with careful oversight."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the-ec138a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the",
    "title": "Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters",
    "date": "2026-04-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the-fa612d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:51Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: e2 explanation: \"Anthropic disclosed unintended actions, including form submissions despite instructions to stop before submission.\" The captured source says only that Claude submitted a sensitive form \"when it should not have\". It does not mention any instruction to stop before submission. The added detail makes the incident look more like a breach of explicit rules, which matters to this claim..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the",
    "title": "Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters",
    "date": "2026-04-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dario-takes-it-on-the-chin-c0dc51",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dario-takes-it-on-the-chin",
    "title": "Dario takes it on the chin",
    "date": "2026-07-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dario-takes-it-on-the-chin-d31692",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:54:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dario-takes-it-on-the-chin",
    "title": "Dario takes it on the chin",
    "date": "2026-07-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Anthropic called for locking down distillation by competitors while it has itself been destroying rare books in bulk to distill their contents."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dario-takes-it-on-the-chin-f8f19a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dario-takes-it-on-the-chin",
    "title": "Dario takes it on the chin",
    "date": "2026-07-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-data-center-madness-1a2f47-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/data-center-madness",
    "title": "Data center madness",
    "date": "2026-08-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-data-center-madness-712310",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:56:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/data-center-madness",
    "title": "Data center madness",
    "date": "2026-08-21"
   },
   "proposition": "Republican politicians are rapidly withdrawing support for AI data centers."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-data-center-madness-942312",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:56:57Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/data-center-madness",
    "title": "Data center madness",
    "date": "2026-08-21"
   },
   "proposition": "Current AI revenues are in the tens of billions of dollars, or the low hundreds of billions if you are really optimistic, against data center capex in the trillions."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-data-center-madness-d4290d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/data-center-madness",
    "title": "Data center madness",
    "date": "2026-08-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-david-beats-go-liath-360fc7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:55:36Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/david-beats-go-liath",
    "title": "David beats Go-liath",
    "date": "2023-02-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-david-beats-go-liath-9ae7e2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/david-beats-go-liath",
    "title": "David beats Go-liath",
    "date": "2023-02-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-david-beats-go-liath-b07505",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:55:36Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/david-beats-go-liath",
    "title": "David beats Go-liath",
    "date": "2023-02-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Deep learning is just a technical term for layered neural networks and does not entail conceptual depth."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things-20b957",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things",
    "title": "Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI",
    "date": "2022-05-31"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things-3a3261",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:55:56Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things",
    "title": "Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI",
    "date": "2022-05-31"
   },
   "proposition": "So far as Marcus knows, Tesla's cars are still mostly doing a kind of glorified hash-table-like lookup (deep learning), and as a result still have a lot of problems with unexpected situations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things-55b9ea",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:55:56Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things",
    "title": "Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI",
    "date": "2022-05-31"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus doesn't think AGI can be reached without solving the methodological problem of building complex cognitive systems, and he doesn't think anybody yet has a good proposal for solving it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-death-of-a-chatbot-body-blow-to-an-284f74",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/death-of-a-chatbot-body-blow-to-an",
    "title": "Death of a Chatbot, body blow to an industry",
    "date": "2024-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-decoding-and-debunking-hard-forks-25ea3a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/decoding-and-debunking-hard-forks",
    "title": "Decoding (and debunking) Hard Fork’s Kevin Roose",
    "date": "2025-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-decoding-and-debunking-hard-forks-7ee243",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/decoding-and-debunking-hard-forks",
    "title": "Decoding (and debunking) Hard Fork’s Kevin Roose",
    "date": "2025-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-decoding-and-debunking-hard-forks-83fb4f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/decoding-and-debunking-hard-forks",
    "title": "Decoding (and debunking) Hard Fork’s Kevin Roose",
    "date": "2025-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-decoding-and-debunking-hard-forks-9cf49d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:57:30Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/decoding-and-debunking-hard-forks",
    "title": "Decoding (and debunking) Hard Fork’s Kevin Roose",
    "date": "2025-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": "Code for Roose's recipe-from-photo app already existed online, and the AI coding tools he used were presumably trained on it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest-2d2932",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest",
    "title": "Deconstructing Geoffrey Hinton’s weakest argument",
    "date": "2024-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest-475774",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:58:07Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest",
    "title": "Deconstructing Geoffrey Hinton’s weakest argument",
    "date": "2024-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs' many failures, such as regular but unpredictable hallucinations, show they are simply approximators without true common sense."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest-630cf0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:58:14Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest",
    "title": "Deconstructing Geoffrey Hinton’s weakest argument",
    "date": "2024-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Except in hallucinations associated with disorders like schizophrenia, humans rarely make things up wholesale, whereas LLMs do."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest-b45ae7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:58:04Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest",
    "title": "Deconstructing Geoffrey Hinton’s weakest argument",
    "date": "2024-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Yann LeCun has recently shifted to Marcus's position on LLM understanding."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest-eb8b67",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:58:04Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest",
    "title": "Deconstructing Geoffrey Hinton’s weakest argument",
    "date": "2024-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": "The mechanisms behind LLM hallucinations are not the same as those behind a human error like forgetting where one put one's car keys, and the errors themselves are qualitatively different."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest-f6c34c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:56:49Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deconstructing-geoffrey-hintons-weakest",
    "title": "Deconstructing Geoffrey Hinton’s weakest argument",
    "date": "2024-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deep-learning-deep-scandal-9a2f9e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:58:05Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deep-learning-deep-scandal",
    "title": "Deep Learning, Deep Scandal",
    "date": "2025-04-07"
   },
   "proposition": "Model performance cannot be predicted entirely from model and data size; Meta wasted massive sums on that mistaken hypothesis."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deep-research-deep-bullshit-and-the-44a074",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:09:56Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deep-research-deep-bullshit-and-the",
    "title": "Deep Research, Deep Bullshit, and the potential (model) collapse of science",
    "date": "2025-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deep-research-deep-bullshit-and-the-599e37",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deep-research-deep-bullshit-and-the",
    "title": "Deep Research, Deep Bullshit, and the potential (model) collapse of science",
    "date": "2025-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deep-research-deep-bullshit-and-the-88c867",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deep-research-deep-bullshit-and-the",
    "title": "Deep Research, Deep Bullshit, and the potential (model) collapse of science",
    "date": "2025-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": "A Deep Research essay on the McKinley Tariff of 1890, which circulated and was initially praised, was not so great on inspection."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deep-research-deep-bullshit-and-the-8e35f7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:09:56Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deep-research-deep-bullshit-and-the",
    "title": "Deep Research, Deep Bullshit, and the potential (model) collapse of science",
    "date": "2025-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deepmind-and-openai-achieve-imo-gold-7bd0cb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deepmind-and-openai-achieve-imo-gold",
    "title": "DeepMind and OpenAI achieve IMO Gold. What does it all mean?",
    "date": "2025-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deepmind-and-openai-achieve-imo-gold-a782ed",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:59:17Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025-07, which is not inside the period described (2025-07-01 to 2025-07-22); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2025-07, which is not inside the period described (2025-07-01 to 2025-07-22); it can only be context; e3 is dated 2025-07, which is not inside the period described (2025-07-01 to 2025-07-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deepmind-and-openai-achieve-imo-gold",
    "title": "DeepMind and OpenAI achieve IMO Gold. What does it all mean?",
    "date": "2025-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI-IMO and Deep Think are much stronger at IMO problems than earlier systems such as Gemini 2.5 Pro, o3, o4-mini, Grok 4 and DeepSeek-R1."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deepmind-and-openai-achieve-imo-gold-a91c11",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deepmind-and-openai-achieve-imo-gold",
    "title": "DeepMind and OpenAI achieve IMO Gold. What does it all mean?",
    "date": "2025-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": "A correct answer to a math problem is not the same as a good answer, and three of OpenAI-IMO's answers, though correct, were significantly worse than Deep Think's."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deepmind-and-openai-achieve-imo-gold-dc0eea",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deepmind-and-openai-achieve-imo-gold",
    "title": "DeepMind and OpenAI achieve IMO Gold. What does it all mean?",
    "date": "2025-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-deepmind-and-openai-achieve-imo-gold-faf188",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:58:35Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2025-07, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2025-07-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/deepmind-and-openai-achieve-imo-gold",
    "title": "DeepMind and OpenAI achieve IMO Gold. What does it all mean?",
    "date": "2025-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": "There has been significant progress in AI performance on IMO problems between 2024 and 2025."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-did-elon-musk-just-muk-sam-altman-a92df8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:59:00Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-elon-musk-just-muk-sam-altman",
    "title": "Did Elon Musk just Mu$k Sam Altman?",
    "date": "2025-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI is burning cash and its investors dislike the nonprofit structure."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-did-elon-musk-just-muk-sam-altman-e5fc71",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-elon-musk-just-muk-sam-altman",
    "title": "Did Elon Musk just Mu$k Sam Altman?",
    "date": "2025-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-did-elon-musk-just-muk-sam-altman-ea9c02",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-elon-musk-just-muk-sam-altman",
    "title": "Did Elon Musk just Mu$k Sam Altman?",
    "date": "2025-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of-29b250",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:00:23Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of",
    "title": "Did GoogleAI Just Snooker One of Silicon Valley’s Sharpest Minds?",
    "date": "2022-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of-6f08ae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of",
    "title": "Did GoogleAI Just Snooker One of Silicon Valley’s Sharpest Minds?",
    "date": "2022-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of-7a607b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:00:04Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of",
    "title": "Did GoogleAI Just Snooker One of Silicon Valley’s Sharpest Minds?",
    "date": "2022-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": "If another AI winter comes, the cause will be hype exceeding reality rather than AI being impossible, and the only remedy is truth in advertising."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of-7c3b60",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of",
    "title": "Did GoogleAI Just Snooker One of Silicon Valley’s Sharpest Minds?",
    "date": "2022-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of-951f5e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:00:04Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2022-09, which is not inside the period described (2022-09-01 to 2022-09-14); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of",
    "title": "Did GoogleAI Just Snooker One of Silicon Valley’s Sharpest Minds?",
    "date": "2022-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Alexander's five-item test and Google's press do not change the fact that compositionality remains a giant unsolved problem for AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of-f533b0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of",
    "title": "Did GoogleAI Just Snooker One of Silicon Valley’s Sharpest Minds?",
    "date": "2022-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-did-trump-just-overplay-his-hand-00adfc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:00:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/not_adjudicable.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-trump-just-overplay-his-hand",
    "title": "Did Trump just overplay his hand?",
    "date": "2026-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Mass surveillance, likely of US citizens, is one of the issues in the dispute between Anthropic and the Trump administration."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-did-trump-just-overplay-his-hand-1a7c41",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:00:54Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-trump-just-overplay-his-hand",
    "title": "Did Trump just overplay his hand?",
    "date": "2026-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Trump's doubling down against Anthropic will almost certainly alienate a large part of Silicon Valley."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-disturbing-and-misleading-efforts-0d5eeb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:29Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/disturbing-and-misleading-efforts",
    "title": "Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection",
    "date": "2024-05-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-disturbing-and-misleading-efforts-1a828b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/disturbing-and-misleading-efforts",
    "title": "Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection",
    "date": "2024-05-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-disturbing-and-misleading-efforts-da2cb4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:58:42Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/disturbing-and-misleading-efforts",
    "title": "Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection",
    "date": "2024-05-30"
   },
   "proposition": "The board seems to have accurately described firing Altman because it could no longer trust him, not for immediate safety violations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-does-ai-really-need-a-paradigm-shift-59fbc3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/does-ai-really-need-a-paradigm-shift",
    "title": "Does AI really need a paradigm shift?",
    "date": "2022-06-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-does-ai-really-need-a-paradigm-shift-828976",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:13Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: SagaScale reports meaningful progress on questions about full-length novels, which weighs against assuming such comprehension cannot improve through neural models..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/does-ai-really-need-a-paradigm-shift",
    "title": "Does AI really need a paradigm shift?",
    "date": "2022-06-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-does-ai-really-need-a-paradigm-shift-991cdc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:00:46Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/does-ai-really-need-a-paradigm-shift",
    "title": "Does AI really need a paradigm shift?",
    "date": "2022-06-11"
   },
   "proposition": "There is at least a little more headroom left for large language models, though the real controversy is whether that is enough."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-does-ai-really-need-a-paradigm-shift-e2d847",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/does-ai-really-need-a-paradigm-shift",
    "title": "Does AI really need a paradigm shift?",
    "date": "2022-06-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-does-openais-new-financing-make-sense-5af1af",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:00:52Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2026-02, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2026-02-27); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/does-openais-new-financing-make-sense",
    "title": "Does OpenAI’s new financing make sense?",
    "date": "2026-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": "A couple of years ago the conventional wisdom was that OpenAI was unassailable, but now, by its own account, OpenAI is in a Code Red, with Google right on its heels."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-does-openais-new-financing-make-sense-7a05a8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/does-openais-new-financing-make-sense",
    "title": "Does OpenAI’s new financing make sense?",
    "date": "2026-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's new round took about 65% of all venture capital, even though OpenAI has never made a profit, has no immediate prospect of one, and has no clear technical advantage."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-does-openais-new-financing-make-sense-949f4f-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:00:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/does-openais-new-financing-make-sense",
    "title": "Does OpenAI’s new financing make sense?",
    "date": "2026-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-does-openais-new-financing-make-sense-949f4f-3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:00:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/does-openais-new-financing-make-sense",
    "title": "Does OpenAI’s new financing make sense?",
    "date": "2026-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-does-openais-new-financing-make-sense-e37f47",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T06:59:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e9 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/does-openais-new-financing-make-sense",
    "title": "Does OpenAI’s new financing make sense?",
    "date": "2026-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's lack of a technical moat has meant that competitors such as Google and Anthropic have caught up with it, and some Chinese companies are not far behind and are ahead on price."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-go-breaking-my-heart-469962",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:01:03Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-go-breaking-my-heart",
    "title": "Don’t Go Breaking My Heart",
    "date": "2023-02-22"
   },
   "proposition": "There is essentially no regulation of what chatbots can say or do, how they change, or how they treat users."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-go-breaking-my-heart-6a726d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-go-breaking-my-heart",
    "title": "Don’t Go Breaking My Heart",
    "date": "2023-02-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-go-breaking-my-heart-bcb963",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:01:56Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 is dated 2023-02, which is not inside the period described (2023-02-01 to 2023-02-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-go-breaking-my-heart",
    "title": "Don’t Go Breaking My Heart",
    "date": "2023-02-22"
   },
   "proposition": "A leading chatbot (Replika) just changed its behavior radically for all users, possibly as a side effect of the Bing/Sydney fiasco."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-look-up-the-ai-edition-063bde",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-look-up-the-ai-edition",
    "title": "Don’t Look Up: The AI Edition",
    "date": "2023-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-look-up-the-ai-edition-5241a6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:45Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-look-up-the-ai-edition",
    "title": "Don’t Look Up: The AI Edition",
    "date": "2023-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-look-up-the-massive-microsoftcrowdstrike-11c54c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-look-up-the-massive-microsoftcrowdstrike",
    "title": "Don’t look up: the massive Microsoft/Crowdstrike data outage is a huge wake-up call",
    "date": "2024-07-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-look-up-the-massive-microsoftcrowdstrike-3fa1b5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-look-up-the-massive-microsoftcrowdstrike",
    "title": "Don’t look up: the massive Microsoft/Crowdstrike data outage is a huge wake-up call",
    "date": "2024-07-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-look-up-the-massive-microsoftcrowdstrike-7e7eca",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-look-up-the-massive-microsoftcrowdstrike",
    "title": "Don’t look up: the massive Microsoft/Crowdstrike data outage is a huge wake-up call",
    "date": "2024-07-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-ride-this-bike-generative-ais-0a0215",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:12:34Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: conditions_shown, citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-ride-this-bike-generative-ais",
    "title": "Don’t Ride This Bike! Generative AI’s persistent trouble with compositionality and parts",
    "date": "2024-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-ride-this-bike-generative-ais-347ba6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:12:34Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-ride-this-bike-generative-ais",
    "title": "Don’t Ride This Bike! Generative AI’s persistent trouble with compositionality and parts",
    "date": "2024-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-ride-this-bike-generative-ais-431d7d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:01:52Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-12-08); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-12-08); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-ride-this-bike-generative-ais",
    "title": "Don’t Ride This Bike! Generative AI’s persistent trouble with compositionality and parts",
    "date": "2024-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": "In current generative AI approaches, the relation between language and images remains superficial and unpredictable, with little guarantee any trial is correct."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-dont-ride-this-bike-generative-ais-ebe0e9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:01:52Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-12-08); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dont-ride-this-bike-generative-ais",
    "title": "Don’t Ride This Bike! Generative AI’s persistent trouble with compositionality and parts",
    "date": "2024-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Compositional and part-related errors remain common in generative AI, with default answers often reflecting a lack of full comprehension of language or the world."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-doug-lenat-1950-2023-4d9fba",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:02:21Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-09-01); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/doug-lenat-1950-2023",
    "title": "Doug Lenat, 1950-2023",
    "date": "2023-09-01"
   },
   "proposition": "From LLMs we sometimes see an illusion of common sense, depending on the vagaries of the training set and the precise wording of a question, but something is obviously still missing."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-doug-lenat-1950-2023-cb29ff",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:02:21Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-09-01); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/doug-lenat-1950-2023",
    "title": "Doug Lenat, 1950-2023",
    "date": "2023-09-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Large language models repeatedly struggle with common sense."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-doug-lenat-1950-2023-eed19a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:02:21Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-09-01); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/doug-lenat-1950-2023",
    "title": "Doug Lenat, 1950-2023",
    "date": "2023-09-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Depending on the wording, any given LLM might or might not answer questions like the example correctly on any given day, and LLMs tend to be accurate with some wordings and inaccurate with others."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-doug-lenat-1950-2023-efc67a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:01:25Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/doug-lenat-1950-2023",
    "title": "Doug Lenat, 1950-2023",
    "date": "2023-09-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that-02e257",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that",
    "title": "Elegant and powerful new result that seriously undermines large language models",
    "date": "2023-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": "In many real-world problems the space of possible examples can never be fully covered, and heavily data-driven systems like LLMs that lack explicit variables and operations over variables are out of luck when they try to extrapolate beyond the space of their training examples; this was true in 2001 and is still true now."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that-0ff197",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that",
    "title": "Elegant and powerful new result that seriously undermines large language models",
    "date": "2023-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that-d301bb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:02:32Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that",
    "title": "Elegant and powerful new result that seriously undermines large language models",
    "date": "2023-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": "People will eventually realize that AI needs genuinely new ideas, such as neurosymbolic mechanisms or different approaches."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that-d301bb-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:02:32Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that",
    "title": "Elegant and powerful new result that seriously undermines large language models",
    "date": "2023-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": "It is just a matter [of time] before people start to realize that the field needs some genuinely new ideas, either new mechanisms (perhaps neurosymbolic) or different approaches altogether."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that-f58c6b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:02:32Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that",
    "title": "Elegant and powerful new result that seriously undermines large language models",
    "date": "2023-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Bing's neurosymbolic supplementation to pure LLMs gives some benefit on these reversal problems where there are known facts, though it is not yet clear how general the benefit is, and Marcus would expect Bing to have trouble on the made-up facts used in Experiment 1."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that-f5a79a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elegant-and-powerful-new-result-that",
    "title": "Elegant and powerful new result that seriously undermines large language models",
    "date": "2023-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elon-musk-1-yann-lecun-1-humanity-7b655c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musk-1-yann-lecun-1-humanity",
    "title": "Elon Musk: 1; Yann LeCun: 1; Humanity: 0",
    "date": "2024-05-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Based on trying it yesterday, Marcus says Grok has its moments but can be pretty dismal too."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elon-musk-1-yann-lecun-1-humanity-972f92",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musk-1-yann-lecun-1-humanity",
    "title": "Elon Musk: 1; Yann LeCun: 1; Humanity: 0",
    "date": "2024-05-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elon-musk-1-yann-lecun-1-humanity-b61db4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:02:50Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024-05, which is not inside the period described (2024-05-01 to 2024-05-29); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musk-1-yann-lecun-1-humanity",
    "title": "Elon Musk: 1; Yann LeCun: 1; Humanity: 0",
    "date": "2024-05-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Grok is frequently wrong, gives inconsistent answers to the same question, and is never in doubt."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elon-musk-sues-openai-89201d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:03:45Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musk-sues-openai",
    "title": "Elon Musk sues OpenAI",
    "date": "2024-03-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Musk's lawsuit gives further evidence for the OpenAI board's view that Sam Altman has not always been consistently candid."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elon-musk-sues-openai-c72334",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:03:45Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musk-sues-openai",
    "title": "Elon Musk sues OpenAI",
    "date": "2024-03-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly-0f0b7e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly",
    "title": "Elon Musk’s preposterous and possibly harmful claim about robotic surgery",
    "date": "2026-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly-701f64",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly",
    "title": "Elon Musk’s preposterous and possibly harmful claim about robotic surgery",
    "date": "2026-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly-cdd9c1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:03:31Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly",
    "title": "Elon Musk’s preposterous and possibly harmful claim about robotic surgery",
    "date": "2026-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": "AI did not exceed the intelligence of all people by the end of 2025, contrary to Musk's prediction."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elon-musks-terrifying-vision-for-61f856",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-terrifying-vision-for",
    "title": "Elon Musk’s terrifying vision for AI",
    "date": "2025-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elon-musks-terrifying-vision-for-8ac6c6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-terrifying-vision-for",
    "title": "Elon Musk’s terrifying vision for AI",
    "date": "2025-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Multimodal LLMs still cannot reliably understand time, confirming long-standing concerns about their temporal reasoning."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-elon-musks-terrifying-vision-for-addaec",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:03:05Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-terrifying-vision-for",
    "title": "Elon Musk’s terrifying vision for AI",
    "date": "2025-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs can influence people's attitudes, people may not even know they have been influenced, and people who are warned can still be affected."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-erdosgate-201eba",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:12:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: He also says the earlier nested post explicitly described literature search, which limits any inference of deliberate concealment..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/erdosgate",
    "title": "Erdosgate",
    "date": "2025-10-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-erdosgate-6dcda6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:04:19Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/erdosgate",
    "title": "Erdosgate",
    "date": "2025-10-21"
   },
   "proposition": "The oversold Sparks of AGI paper dubiously alleged that GPT-4 could reasonably be viewed as an early, yet still incomplete, version of an AGI system."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-eric-schmidts-risky-bet-on-ai-and-825771",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:04:38Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/eric-schmidts-risky-bet-on-ai-and",
    "title": "Eric Schmidt’s Risky Bet on AI and Climate Change",
    "date": "2024-10-05"
   },
   "proposition": "If GPT-5 isn't magic, people will try for GPT-6 and risk even more harm to the environment, upping the current harm by many orders of magnitude."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-eric-schmidts-risky-bet-on-ai-and-ae0621",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:04:38Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/eric-schmidts-risky-bet-on-ai-and",
    "title": "Eric Schmidt’s Risky Bet on AI and Climate Change",
    "date": "2024-10-05"
   },
   "proposition": "The only potent trick anyone seems to have is scaling, and the more scaling big tech companies do, the more power they will consume."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-even-more-good-news-for-the-future-055f7c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:04:45Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/even-more-good-news-for-the-future",
    "title": "Even more good news for the future of neurosymbolic AI",
    "date": "2026-04-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-even-more-good-news-for-the-future-5a5db5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:04:45Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/even-more-good-news-for-the-future",
    "title": "Even more good news for the future of neurosymbolic AI",
    "date": "2026-04-12"
   },
   "proposition": "A neurosymbolic approach is not a panacea, only a starting point."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-even-more-good-news-for-the-future-b5a2ee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:12:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/even-more-good-news-for-the-future",
    "title": "Even more good news for the future of neurosymbolic AI",
    "date": "2026-04-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-everybodys-out-a65-33401f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:04:21Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/everybodys-out-a65",
    "title": "Everybody’s out",
    "date": "2023-11-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Sam Altman is out of OpenAI, Greg Brockman presumably is too, and Mira Murati is no longer interim CEO."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-everyone-is-cheating-their-way-through-93f29c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/everyone-is-cheating-their-way-through",
    "title": "”Everyone is cheating their way through college” with GenAI. Who should bear the costs?",
    "date": "2025-05-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-everyone-is-cheating-their-way-through-97442e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:12:39Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/everyone-is-cheating-their-way-through",
    "title": "”Everyone is cheating their way through college” with GenAI. Who should bear the costs?",
    "date": "2025-05-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-everyone-is-cheating-their-way-through-db39cb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:03:48Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/everyone-is-cheating-their-way-through",
    "title": "”Everyone is cheating their way through college” with GenAI. Who should bear the costs?",
    "date": "2025-05-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Because of GenAI-enabled cheating in college, employers will struggle to find well-educated employees."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-everything-i-warned-about-in-taming-924c28",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:13:11Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful; overclaims: e2 explanation: \"Vance also promised worker participation, criticized incumbent companies seeking advantageous regulation, and retained a role for safety.\" The e2 excerpt and its context support only the worker promises. They do not show criticism of incumbents seeking advantageous regulation or a retained role for safety..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/everything-i-warned-about-in-taming",
    "title": "Everything I warned about in Taming Silicon Valley is rapidly becoming our reality",
    "date": "2025-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-everything-i-warned-about-in-taming-d75e63",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:04:15Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/everything-i-warned-about-in-taming",
    "title": "Everything I warned about in Taming Silicon Valley is rapidly becoming our reality",
    "date": "2025-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": "Vance has no evidence whatsoever that the US has excessive regulation around AI, and arguably the US has almost no AI regulation at all."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a-452931",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:14:02Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a",
    "title": "Evidence that LLMs are reaching a point of diminishing returns - and what that might mean",
    "date": "2024-04-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a-494548",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:14:02Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct; overclaims: LLM reliability problems clearly have not been solved, and this is becoming widely known..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a",
    "title": "Evidence that LLMs are reaching a point of diminishing returns - and what that might mean",
    "date": "2024-04-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a-60cf63",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:05:53Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a",
    "title": "Evidence that LLMs are reaching a point of diminishing returns - and what that might mean",
    "date": "2024-04-13"
   },
   "proposition": "There are numerous signs that LLM development has reached a period of diminishing returns."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a-f1a676",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:05:34Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a",
    "title": "Evidence that LLMs are reaching a point of diminishing returns - and what that might mean",
    "date": "2024-04-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Bright humans can probably score something like 90%+ on the NYT Connections game, but current LLMs are not close to that level."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-1d846e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:06:58Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-1eb181",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-2015b9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:06:20Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": "There is almost zero chance that AGI, meaning a system that can do almost any cognitive task a human can do, will arrive within the next two to three years."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-4445cb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:06:32Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the horizon on 2026-10-28 is open_horizon, not not_due",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": "The hypothesis that AGI is imminent is almost certainly wrong."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-4c0be2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:06:32Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's Orion appears to have been downgraded and released as GPT-4.5 rather than GPT-5."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-5c8dbf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:06:46Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": "AGI timelines are the focus of some of the largest investments in history and central to many delicate policy questions."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-67efec",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:23:34Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: It documented a tenfold output-token price premium over Claude 3.7 Sonnet, supporting a very large API price premium during the February 27–March 5 assessment period [e1]. | The tenfold comparison applies to output-token pricing, not input tokens or completed tasks..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-69c650",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:06:46Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": "The policies Klein and Buchanan discuss throughout the episode, such as chip export controls and massive infrastructure investments, rest almost entirely on the assumption that AGI is nigh and that LLMs will get us there."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-792f50",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Apple's recent study on formal reasoning very much confirms that current AI systems still lack a reliable ability to freely generalize abstractions to new instances, more than two decades after Marcus first pointed out this weakness."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-bd234e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-dcc9b7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:07:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-ece545",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:05:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why",
    "title": "Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong",
    "date": "2025-03-05"
   },
   "proposition": "The scenario in which AGI is not imminent is underrepresented in current policy discussions."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-f-cancer-f63107",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/f-cancer",
    "title": "F Cancer",
    "date": "2026-03-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-f-cancer-fa9717",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:07:25Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a causal claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/f-cancer",
    "title": "F Cancer",
    "date": "2026-03-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Beating cancer will require systemic technical and economic changes in drug development plus deeper forms of AI that reason better about chemistry, physics and biology."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-face-it-self-driving-cars-still-havent-066600",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:07:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/face-it-self-driving-cars-still-havent",
    "title": "Face it, self-driving cars still haven’t earned their stripes",
    "date": "2023-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": "Every proto-self-driving car still needs a human 'nanny' and still struggles, and increasing their operations after the CPUC approval in San Francisco has led to chaos."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-face-it-self-driving-cars-still-havent-a927df",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/face-it-self-driving-cars-still-havent",
    "title": "Face it, self-driving cars still haven’t earned their stripes",
    "date": "2023-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-face-it-self-driving-cars-still-havent-cc3ad7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/face-it-self-driving-cars-still-havent",
    "title": "Face it, self-driving cars still haven’t earned their stripes",
    "date": "2023-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": "Although snow and rain are less of a problem than in 2016, edge cases have by no means gone away, and how safe you are in a driverless car still depends too much on the vagaries of data and not enough on reasoning."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-face-it-self-driving-cars-still-havent-f9acb7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:22:40Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/face-it-self-driving-cars-still-havent",
    "title": "Face it, self-driving cars still haven’t earned their stripes",
    "date": "2023-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-face-it-self-driving-cars-still-havent-fac0bc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:07:06Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/face-it-self-driving-cars-still-havent",
    "title": "Face it, self-driving cars still haven’t earned their stripes",
    "date": "2023-08-19"
   },
   "proposition": "However much data driverless cars are trained on, they will always meet new situations their training does not cover."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-facing-facts-684ad6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:06:40Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/facing-facts",
    "title": "Facing Facts",
    "date": "2024-04-21"
   },
   "proposition": "Hallucinations are absolutely core to how LLMs work, rather than just a bug."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-firing-sam-and-then-trying-to-bring-ad1d1d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/firing-sam-and-then-trying-to-bring",
    "title": "Firing Sam and then trying to bring him back is a hot mess.",
    "date": "2023-11-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-first-take-on-the-white-house-executive-09599a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:13Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/first-take-on-the-white-house-executive",
    "title": "First take on the White House Executive Order on AI",
    "date": "2023-10-30"
   },
   "proposition": "Under the order, as Marcus reads it, companies can release clearly risky AI products as long as they tell the government the risks."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-first-take-on-the-white-house-executive-63cf10",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:13Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/first-take-on-the-white-house-executive",
    "title": "First take on the White House Executive Order on AI",
    "date": "2023-10-30"
   },
   "proposition": "The UK AI Summit seems to have greatly narrowed its focus, mainly to long-term risk, with not enough focus on the here and now, and it is not clear how much with teeth will come out of it or what authority it really has."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-first-take-on-the-white-house-executive-69d56c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:22:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: e1 explanation: \"Reading section 4.2 confirms that it does not establish an FDA-style approval gate.\".",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/first-take-on-the-white-house-executive",
    "title": "First take on the White House Executive Order on AI",
    "date": "2023-10-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-first-take-on-the-white-house-executive-dbbe5e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:07:07Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/first-take-on-the-white-house-executive",
    "title": "First take on the White House Executive Order on AI",
    "date": "2023-10-30"
   },
   "proposition": "The Executive Order is broad, covering current and long-term risks, with some but probably not enough enforcement teeth."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-quick-updates-about-that-apple-fa9f80",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:07:41Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025-06, which is not inside the period described (2025-01-01 to 2025-06-17); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-quick-updates-about-that-apple",
    "title": "Five quick updates about that Apple reasoning paper that people can’t stop talking about",
    "date": "2025-06-17"
   },
   "proposition": "After almost three decades of work, generative AI still struggles with distribution shift."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-signs-that-generative-ai-is-0da48a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-signs-that-generative-ai-is",
    "title": "Five signs that Generative AI is losing traction",
    "date": "2025-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-signs-that-generative-ai-is-896b72",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:06Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-signs-that-generative-ai-is",
    "title": "Five signs that Generative AI is losing traction",
    "date": "2025-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Vibe coding appears to be losing steam, with usage declining."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-signs-that-generative-ai-is-eb11a3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:06Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. \"likely\" is hedged or probabilistic; one outcome does not score it; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-signs-that-generative-ai-is",
    "title": "Five signs that Generative AI is losing traction",
    "date": "2025-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus would bet a lot of money that OpenAI's Sora 2-driven competitor to TikTok will go through a rise and fall similar to the one he describes for the products earlier in the post."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-signs-that-the-genai-honeymoon-026405",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-signs-that-the-genai-honeymoon",
    "title": "Five signs that the GenAI honeymoon is over",
    "date": "2024-07-31"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-signs-that-the-genai-honeymoon-041911",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-signs-that-the-genai-honeymoon",
    "title": "Five signs that the GenAI honeymoon is over",
    "date": "2024-07-31"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-things-most-people-dont-seem-0c6686-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-things-most-people-dont-seem",
    "title": "Five things most people don't seem to understand about DeepSeek",
    "date": "2025-01-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months-27fd37",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:52Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months",
    "title": "Five ways in which the last 3 months — and especially the DeepSeek era — have vindicated “Deep learning is hitting a wall\"",
    "date": "2025-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": "DeepSeek, roughly matching o1, accelerated price wars and forced OpenAI to drop prices."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months-8c9627",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months",
    "title": "Five ways in which the last 3 months — and especially the DeepSeek era — have vindicated “Deep learning is hitting a wall\"",
    "date": "2025-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months-c180be",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:57Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months",
    "title": "Five ways in which the last 3 months — and especially the DeepSeek era — have vindicated “Deep learning is hitting a wall\"",
    "date": "2025-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus thinks it is fair to say that the 2022 essay did not anticipate how well a system like Deep Research might work, but that in most other respects, including the slowing of pure LLMs, the need for neurosymbolic AI, and the continued troubles with reasoning and hallucination, it was right."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months-cdd98f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:57Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months",
    "title": "Five ways in which the last 3 months — and especially the DeepSeek era — have vindicated “Deep learning is hitting a wall\"",
    "date": "2025-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": "If the scaling of pure LLMs ran out, one would expect multiple teams to compete and reach a point of diminishing returns, with essentially no moat and a lot of competition over price."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months-d4ff57",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:09:35Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months",
    "title": "Five ways in which the last 3 months — and especially the DeepSeek era — have vindicated “Deep learning is hitting a wall\"",
    "date": "2025-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": "The era of crowding at the top, with multiple teams competing at a point of diminishing returns, essentially no moat, and a lot of competition over price, has clearly been reached."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months-d7fd9a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:09:35Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months",
    "title": "Five ways in which the last 3 months — and especially the DeepSeek era — have vindicated “Deep learning is hitting a wall\"",
    "date": "2025-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": "New techniques beyond pure LLMs, such as test-time compute, were needed, and test-time compute is working to some degree, for a while anyway, which bears out the 2022 essay's claim that new techniques besides pure LLMs would be needed."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months-fe481c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:09:35Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months",
    "title": "Five ways in which the last 3 months — and especially the DeepSeek era — have vindicated “Deep learning is hitting a wall\"",
    "date": "2025-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": "The Deep Research tariff paper apparently made up many of its numbers."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-form-function-and-the-giant-gulf-0d6191",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/form-function-and-the-giant-gulf",
    "title": "Form, function, and the giant gulf between drawing a picture and understanding the world",
    "date": "2022-09-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-form-function-and-the-giant-gulf-2bd72a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/form-function-and-the-giant-gulf",
    "title": "Form, function, and the giant gulf between drawing a picture and understanding the world",
    "date": "2022-09-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-form-function-and-the-giant-gulf-8eb44f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/form-function-and-the-giant-gulf",
    "title": "Form, function, and the giant gulf between drawing a picture and understanding the world",
    "date": "2022-09-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-form-function-and-the-giant-gulf-b4f3f4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:08:45Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/form-function-and-the-giant-gulf",
    "title": "Form, function, and the giant gulf between drawing a picture and understanding the world",
    "date": "2022-09-18"
   },
   "proposition": "From what Marcus can tell, Craiyon (formerly DALL-E Mini) is completely at sea on prompts that test understanding of parts, wholes and function."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-form-function-and-the-giant-gulf-eb5eae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/form-function-and-the-giant-gulf",
    "title": "Form, function, and the giant gulf between drawing a picture and understanding the world",
    "date": "2022-09-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai-0d585b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai",
    "title": "Four theories about the SpaceX - xAI merger",
    "date": "2026-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai-47877f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai",
    "title": "Four theories about the SpaceX - xAI merger",
    "date": "2026-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai-4d659e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai",
    "title": "Four theories about the SpaceX - xAI merger",
    "date": "2026-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai-8b2200",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:24Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai",
    "title": "Four theories about the SpaceX - xAI merger",
    "date": "2026-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": "For not that much more than xAI, SpaceX could have bought Anthropic, which has had far broader adoption and far less controversy attached to it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai-a8d1e8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:24Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai",
    "title": "Four theories about the SpaceX - xAI merger",
    "date": "2026-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Grok, xAI's main product, does not have the users that ChatGPT has, and does not have the prestige that Google's Gemini seems to be racking up."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai-ae8679",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:24Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai",
    "title": "Four theories about the SpaceX - xAI merger",
    "date": "2026-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": "xAI is burning money fast with no obvious business model or market niche and little to show for it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai-d52934",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:09:39Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/four-theories-about-the-spacex-xai",
    "title": "Four theories about the SpaceX - xAI merger",
    "date": "2026-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": "xAI is not doing well as a business."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-further-breaking-news-further-vindicating-4c6540",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:09:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/further-breaking-news-further-vindicating",
    "title": "Breaking: Yann LeCun, longtime critic of neurosymbolic approaches, changes teams",
    "date": "2026-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Silicon Valley is desperately looking for alternatives to pure LLMs and is now open to reorienting around neurosymbolic AI, reasoning, and world models."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-further-breaking-news-further-vindicating-b0a779",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:09:24Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/further-breaking-news-further-vindicating",
    "title": "Breaking: Yann LeCun, longtime critic of neurosymbolic approaches, changes teams",
    "date": "2026-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Yann LeCun has joined what appears to be a neurosymbolic AI company focused on reasoning and world models, seemingly built on a blueprint similar to Marcus's 2020 proposal."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-further-breaking-news-further-vindicating-f53cd2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/further-breaking-news-further-vindicating",
    "title": "Breaking: Yann LeCun, longtime critic of neurosymbolic approaches, changes teams",
    "date": "2026-01-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-further-trouble-in-hinton-city-0be6da",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:24:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: Its methods address questions whose answer options would otherwise become invalid when reordered..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/further-trouble-in-hinton-city",
    "title": "Further Trouble in Hinton City",
    "date": "2024-02-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-further-trouble-in-hinton-city-4f48d7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/further-trouble-in-hinton-city",
    "title": "Further Trouble in Hinton City",
    "date": "2024-02-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-further-trouble-in-hinton-city-663092",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/further-trouble-in-hinton-city",
    "title": "Further Trouble in Hinton City",
    "date": "2024-02-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-further-trouble-in-hinton-city-7f00e5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:49Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/further-trouble-in-hinton-city",
    "title": "Further Trouble in Hinton City",
    "date": "2024-02-08"
   },
   "proposition": "GenAI systems fail to understand simple concepts such as designing for one-handed use."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-further-trouble-in-hinton-city-b4adab",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/further-trouble-in-hinton-city",
    "title": "Further Trouble in Hinton City",
    "date": "2024-02-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-further-trouble-in-hinton-city-fb8aee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:04Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/further-trouble-in-hinton-city",
    "title": "Further Trouble in Hinton City",
    "date": "2024-02-08"
   },
   "proposition": "There are other ways to break free from the attractors ('let's think this through step by step' is rumored to have some success), but what GenAI systems produce by default often seems to be what has been highly trained."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-1b1b63",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing",
    "title": "Game over for pure LLMs. Even Turing Award Winner Rich Sutton has gotten off the bus.",
    "date": "2025-09-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-495c54",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 is dated 2025-09, which is not inside the period described (2025-01-01 to 2025-09-26); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing",
    "title": "Game over for pure LLMs. Even Turing Award Winner Rich Sutton has gotten off the bus.",
    "date": "2025-09-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Demis Hassabis now accepts the critique of LLMs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-4e7c15",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:24:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing",
    "title": "Game over for pure LLMs. Even Turing Award Winner Rich Sutton has gotten off the bus.",
    "date": "2025-09-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-e2f551",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025-09, which is not inside the period described (2019-01-01 to 2025-09-26); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2025-09, which is not inside the period described (2019-01-01 to 2025-09-26); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing",
    "title": "Game over for pure LLMs. Even Turing Award Winner Rich Sutton has gotten off the bus.",
    "date": "2025-09-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus and Sutton both heavily emphasize the need for world models and the limitations of pure prediction, but Sutton puts more weight on reinforcement learning than Marcus does, while Marcus puts more weight on neurosymbolic approaches and innate constraints."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-f0fac5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:24:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing",
    "title": "Game over for pure LLMs. Even Turing Award Winner Rich Sutton has gotten off the bus.",
    "date": "2025-09-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gary-marcus-vs-sam-altman-on-gpt-adacc7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gary-marcus-vs-sam-altman-on-gpt",
    "title": "Gary Marcus vs Sam Altman on GPT-o1 aka Strawberry",
    "date": "2024-09-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gary-marcus-vs-sam-altman-on-gpt-adee33",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:55Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gary-marcus-vs-sam-altman-on-gpt",
    "title": "Gary Marcus vs Sam Altman on GPT-o1 aka Strawberry",
    "date": "2024-09-12"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's o1 appears to depend heavily on synthetic data."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gaslighting-and-reality-in-ai-b662c7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:24:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gaslighting-and-reality-in-ai",
    "title": "Gaslighting and reality in AI",
    "date": "2023-02-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gaslighting-and-reality-in-ai-fa52f0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:24:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gaslighting-and-reality-in-ai",
    "title": "Gaslighting and reality in AI",
    "date": "2023-02-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-genai-in-two-words-success-theater-704680",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:10:03Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/genai-in-two-words-success-theater",
    "title": "GenAI in two words: ”Success Theater”",
    "date": "2025-02-20"
   },
   "proposition": "In many applications, generative AI success has been elusive despite roughly half a trillion dollars of investment."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have-0f2f01",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have",
    "title": "GenAI’s day of reckoning may have come",
    "date": "2025-03-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have-37ce6a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:16Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have",
    "title": "GenAI’s day of reckoning may have come",
    "date": "2025-03-27"
   },
   "proposition": "No LLM company appears to have a technological moat, and none has a solid solution to LLMs' longstanding problems."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have-d95d69",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:21Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have",
    "title": "GenAI’s day of reckoning may have come",
    "date": "2025-03-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have-ee3ef0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:50Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have",
    "title": "GenAI’s day of reckoning may have come",
    "date": "2025-03-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Microsoft appears to be withdrawing from more data center contracts."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have-f69110",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:00Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have",
    "title": "GenAI’s day of reckoning may have come",
    "date": "2025-03-27"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's revenue is up but so are its costs, it has not been able to deliver GPT-5, and some other companies have basically caught up with GPT-4.5, almost overnight."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ai-as-shakespearean-tragedy-0be214",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:12:19Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e6 is dated 2024-04, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-04-07); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ai-as-shakespearean-tragedy",
    "title": "Generative AI as Shakespearean tragedy",
    "date": "2024-04-07"
   },
   "proposition": "The problems Marcus warned about (hallucinations, reasoning failures, echo chamber, data guzzling, ecosphere pollution, etc.) are all occurring now."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ai-as-shakespearean-tragedy-b468de",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ai-as-shakespearean-tragedy",
    "title": "Generative AI as Shakespearean tragedy",
    "date": "2024-04-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ai-as-shakespearean-tragedy-d61fc1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:12:19Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e5 is dated 2024-04, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-04-07); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ai-as-shakespearean-tragedy",
    "title": "Generative AI as Shakespearean tragedy",
    "date": "2024-04-07"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI today suffers from brittleness (unreliability), greed for data, opacity, and shallow, never-complete generalization."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-continuing-copyright-1a3511",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:43Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024-12, which is not inside the period described (2024-12-01 to 2024-12-14); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2024-12, which is not inside the period described (2024-12-01 to 2024-12-14); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-continuing-copyright",
    "title": "Generative AI’s Continuing Copyright Problems, an Essay in Memory of Suchir Balaji, 1998 - 2024",
    "date": "2024-12-14"
   },
   "proposition": "As of December 2024, generative AI's apparent copyright-infringement problem has not gone away."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-continuing-copyright-8ed1ca",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:43Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024-12, which is not inside the period described (2024-12-09 to 2024-12-14); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-continuing-copyright",
    "title": "Generative AI’s Continuing Copyright Problems, an Essay in Memory of Suchir Balaji, 1998 - 2024",
    "date": "2024-12-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Like earlier systems, Sora appears to produce uncreative, near-plagiaristic outputs at least some of the time."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-continuing-copyright-ce7ba2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:23Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-continuing-copyright",
    "title": "Generative AI’s Continuing Copyright Problems, an Essay in Memory of Suchir Balaji, 1998 - 2024",
    "date": "2024-12-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Image generation systems produced near-copies of commercial characters, such as Mario from the prompt 'Italian plumber', even when the character was not named."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-continuing-copyright-ea2219",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:11:23Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-continuing-copyright",
    "title": "Generative AI’s Continuing Copyright Problems, an Essay in Memory of Suchir Balaji, 1998 - 2024",
    "date": "2024-12-14"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's Sora appears, like many earlier systems, to have been trained extensively on copyrighted material."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-0e033f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:12:42Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025, which is not inside the period described (… to 2025-06-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "In a test game, o3 attempted an illegal chess move."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-2e3047",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:25:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-3d27a5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:13:10Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Despite massive training data, LLMs fail to induce proper, reliable world models of chess."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-4b8e3a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:13:10Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Leaving our lives in the hands of LLMs that lack explicit models is literally putting our lives at risk."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-4bb5f4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:12:39Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs never induce proper world models of anything; everything they do is mimicry."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-54c7de",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:12:39Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs often get lost by the chess midgame, playing worse and making illegal moves."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-72a40d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-72d3d3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:25:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-aef52f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:12:49Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2025-06, which is not inside the period described (2025-06-01 to 2025-06-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT recently lost a chess game to an Atari 2600."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-c1a5d9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:13:20Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025, which is not inside the period described (… to 2025-06-27); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "In Anthropic's Project Vend, Claude had no world model: it did not understand its own non-corporeal nature or profits."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-c71158",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:25:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-ca71d4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:13:20Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs cannot build and maintain adequate, interpretable, dynamically updated world models, a shortcoming arguably more fundamental than their reasoning failures."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-cb47d7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-d23c04",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:25:03Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-d6ba15",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:14:20Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Proper world models do not emerge on their own in LLMs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-e03987",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:14:20Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai not_applicable/not_applicable/not_adjudicable.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "In a chatbot, hallucinations are always a risk."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-e8844f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:14:20Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT cannot reliably use factual information like Wikipedia's and has no explicit, stable internal world model."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread-eb4d81",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:25:03Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative-ais-crippling-and-widespread",
    "title": "Generative AI’s crippling and widespread failure to induce robust models of the world",
    "date": "2025-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-getting-gpt-to-work-with-external-5f020c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:23:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/getting-gpt-to-work-with-external",
    "title": "Getting GPT to work with external tools is harder than you think",
    "date": "2023-10-23"
   },
   "proposition": "In the tests, GPT-4 often made syntax errors calling Wolfram Alpha and sometimes could not correct them."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-getting-gpt-to-work-with-external-8575ae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:13:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/getting-gpt-to-work-with-external",
    "title": "Getting GPT to work with external tools is harder than you think",
    "date": "2023-10-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Even with plug-ins, GPT-4 cannot reliably solve word problems involving simple math or simple science and math."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-getting-gpt-to-work-with-external-f0df96",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:24:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: In its instructed human baseline, 39 of 50 participants produced valid plans [e1]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/getting-gpt-to-work-with-external",
    "title": "Getting GPT to work with external tools is harder than you think",
    "date": "2023-10-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-getting-gpt-to-work-with-external-f8363f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/getting-gpt-to-work-with-external",
    "title": "Getting GPT to work with external tools is harder than you think",
    "date": "2023-10-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-give-me-compromise-or-give-me-chaos-93c9d0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/give-me-compromise-or-give-me-chaos",
    "title": "Give me compromise, or give me chaos",
    "date": "2023-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-give-me-compromise-or-give-me-chaos-be08da",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/give-me-compromise-or-give-me-chaos",
    "title": "Give me compromise, or give me chaos",
    "date": "2023-11-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-google-2001-dont-be-evil-0f5109",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/google-2001-dont-be-evil",
    "title": "Google, 2001: Don’t Be Evil",
    "date": "2025-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-google-2001-dont-be-evil-b346c6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/google-2001-dont-be-evil",
    "title": "Google, 2001: Don’t Be Evil",
    "date": "2025-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-45-is-no-gpt-5-13c1cf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:24:46Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025-02, which is not inside the period described (2024-02-26 to 2025-02-26); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-45-is-no-gpt-5",
    "title": "GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-02-26"
   },
   "proposition": "None of what GPT-5 was supposed to do (blow everyone's minds, solve hallucinations, fix reasoning, maybe take over the world) has happened; instead, efforts to build GPT-5 were delayed, as Marcus predicted a year earlier."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-45-is-no-gpt-5-3e4ea6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:13:07Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025-02, which is not inside the period described (2025-01-01 to 2025-02-26); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2025-02, which is not inside the period described (2025-01-01 to 2025-02-26); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-45-is-no-gpt-5",
    "title": "GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-02-26"
   },
   "proposition": "The basic problems of AI remain unsolved."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-45-is-no-gpt-5-5e8b20",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-45-is-no-gpt-5",
    "title": "GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-02-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-45-is-no-gpt-5-746c82",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:43Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-45-is-no-gpt-5",
    "title": "GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-02-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-4s-successes-and-gpt-4s-failures-05acd8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-4s-successes-and-gpt-4s-failures",
    "title": "GPT-4’s successes, and GPT-4’s failures",
    "date": "2023-03-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-4s-successes-and-gpt-4s-failures-3d3262",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:12Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: OpenAI's March 14 launch page also identified Stripe as using GPT-4 [e3]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-4s-successes-and-gpt-4s-failures",
    "title": "GPT-4’s successes, and GPT-4’s failures",
    "date": "2023-03-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-4s-successes-and-gpt-4s-failures-3ed47b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:24:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-4s-successes-and-gpt-4s-failures",
    "title": "GPT-4’s successes, and GPT-4’s failures",
    "date": "2023-03-15"
   },
   "proposition": "When GPT-4 is integrated in Bing with current search results, hallucination remains rampant."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-4s-successes-and-gpt-4s-failures-caabeb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-4s-successes-and-gpt-4s-failures",
    "title": "GPT-4’s successes, and GPT-4’s failures",
    "date": "2023-03-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-4s-successes-and-gpt-4s-failures-ef6e9f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:12Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-4s-successes-and-gpt-4s-failures",
    "title": "GPT-4’s successes, and GPT-4’s failures",
    "date": "2023-03-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance-3c2796",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance",
    "title": "GPT-5 and irrational exuberance",
    "date": "2023-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance-763ec4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance",
    "title": "GPT-5 and irrational exuberance",
    "date": "2023-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT cannot be used as a reliable data processor, won't drive cars reliably, and is not going to be the right tool for tracking air forces in flight."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance-9da352",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:25:47Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. \"unlikely\" is hedged or probabilistic; one outcome does not score it; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance",
    "title": "GPT-5 and irrational exuberance",
    "date": "2023-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": "To Marcus, the idea that GPT-5 will fundamentally transform the world into some sort of new AGI regime sometime in Q4 2023, for China or the US, still seems like a fantasy."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance-a052cc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:25:47Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the horizon on 2026-10-28 is elapsed, not open_horizon",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance",
    "title": "GPT-5 and irrational exuberance",
    "date": "2023-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 will not be smart enough to revolutionize fusion or nanotech, and starships will not arrive in 2024."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance-bb3ad3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:25:47Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance",
    "title": "GPT-5 and irrational exuberance",
    "date": "2023-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT models regurgitate ideas rather than inventing them."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance-c12267",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance",
    "title": "GPT-5 and irrational exuberance",
    "date": "2023-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance-c7debd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:25:14Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance",
    "title": "GPT-5 and irrational exuberance",
    "date": "2023-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 will have some impact on defense and security."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance-e145fa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:26:18Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance",
    "title": "GPT-5 and irrational exuberance",
    "date": "2023-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT models on their own do not do scientific discovery."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance-ee7fd5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:26:18Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-and-irrational-exuberance",
    "title": "GPT-5 and irrational exuberance",
    "date": "2023-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": "It is a safe bet that GPT-5 will be a lot like GPT-4, doing the same kinds of things and having the same kinds of flaws, but being somewhat better."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-hot-take-6b72ff",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-hot-take",
    "title": "GPT-5 hot take",
    "date": "2025-08-07"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 represents good progress on many fronts."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-2b9e05",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: On August 7, 2025, Grok 4 scored 15.9% on ARC-AGI-2 against GPT-5's 9.9% [e1]. | e2 explanation: \"...and highlighted leading long-context reasoning.\".",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-440895",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:26:39Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI is not profitable."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-7768d1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:00Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Both parts hold for launch week in August 2025. | Either way, the gap is small, which fits 'barely better'..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-79bdf2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:28:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Within hours of release GPT-5 showed ridiculous errors and hallucinations, the same pattern as earlier models."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-7fefe8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:28:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-9062db",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:27:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": "The dominant reaction to the GPT-5 launch, apart from a few influencers, was major disappointment."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-ac34f5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct; overclaims: e2 explanation: \"Reported AIME and MMMU results also remain below perfect accuracy...\".",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-ace526",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:27:07Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Public skepticism about OpenAI and Sam Altman is increasing."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-b517e6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI is being forced to cut prices."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-b685c5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": "General purpose AI agents have turned out to suck so badly that people struggle to find real-world use cases for them."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-baf55b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:27:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e9 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Many of OpenAI's best people who have left did so to start competitors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-d8221e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-dcdbc6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming",
    "title": "GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.",
    "date": "2025-08-09"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 arrived late and was underwhelming."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-grok-3-beta-in-shambles-4d1a48",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles",
    "title": "Grok 3 Beta in Shambles",
    "date": "2025-02-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-grok-3-beta-in-shambles-59c4ad",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:27:59Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles",
    "title": "Grok 3 Beta in Shambles",
    "date": "2025-02-19"
   },
   "proposition": "In the author's own testing, Grok 3 Beta answered the first question correctly and then made many errors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-grok-3-beta-in-shambles-606bd4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:27:59Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles",
    "title": "Grok 3 Beta in Shambles",
    "date": "2025-02-19"
   },
   "proposition": "Grok 3's Deep Search makes amazing-seeming reports that seem, reasonably often, to contain very subtle and difficult-to-detect errors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-grok-3-beta-in-shambles-6259e6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:27:59Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 measures something else (company xAI is not Leading AI labs (e.g., OpenAI, xAI, Anthropic)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (company OpenAI is not Leading AI labs (e.g., OpenAI, xAI, Anthropic)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles",
    "title": "Grok 3 Beta in Shambles",
    "date": "2025-02-19"
   },
   "proposition": "AI valuations just keep rising regardless of the results, at least for now."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-grok-3-beta-in-shambles-8156e9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles",
    "title": "Grok 3 Beta in Shambles",
    "date": "2025-02-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-grok-3-beta-in-shambles-d638d2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:27:59Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025-02, which is not inside the period described (2022-11 to 2025-02-19); it can only be context; e3 is dated 2025-02, which is not inside the period described (2022-11 to 2025-02-19); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles",
    "title": "Grok 3 Beta in Shambles",
    "date": "2025-02-19"
   },
   "proposition": "As in the early ChatGPT days, LLM output often contains subtle errors most people would not catch, however good it looks, so users should beware."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-grok-3-beta-in-shambles-db247f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:26:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles",
    "title": "Grok 3 Beta in Shambles",
    "date": "2025-02-19"
   },
   "proposition": "Grok 3 required training on two new massive data centers operating full time for months and 15x the compute of Grok 2, yet all these kinds of errors feel awfully familiar to the author."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-grok-3-beta-in-shambles-f66fbf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:26:16Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025-02, which is not inside the period described (2024-12-01 to 2025-02-19); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles",
    "title": "Grok 3 Beta in Shambles",
    "date": "2025-02-19"
   },
   "proposition": "When the author asked, perhaps too tersely, 'what happened to Billings, Montana?', Grok (Deep Search) did not understand he meant the omission from its table and instead described a recent earthquake there, which from his fact-checking does not appear to have happened."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-grok-3-hot-take-31577b-3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-hot-take",
    "title": "Grok 3 Hot Take",
    "date": "2025-02-18"
   },
   "proposition": "With OpenAI's moat diminishing and price wars continuing, profits will continue to be elusive for everyone except Nvidia."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-grok-3-hot-take-a35a63",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-hot-take",
    "title": "Grok 3 Hot Take",
    "date": "2025-02-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-grok-3-hot-take-eee9ff",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-hot-take",
    "title": "Grok 3 Hot Take",
    "date": "2025-02-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-groupthink-versus-tulips-what-will-d6bcee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:39:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e1 public excerpt \"GPT-4 judge favoring GPT-4 outputs.\" drops the source's hedge \"can be due to\" and its subject, so a possible bias reads as an established fact..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/groupthink-versus-tulips-what-will",
    "title": "Groupthink versus Tulips. What will historians think of 2024?",
    "date": "2024-04-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-happy-1st-birthday-gpt-4-715ec4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:27:03Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2024-03, which is not inside the period described (2023-03-16 to 2024-03-16); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/happy-1st-birthday-gpt-4",
    "title": "Happy 1st Birthday, GPT-4",
    "date": "2024-03-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Bad actors appear to be using LLMs for cybercrime and disinformation."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-happy-1st-birthday-gpt-4-83bd8e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/happy-1st-birthday-gpt-4",
    "title": "Happy 1st Birthday, GPT-4",
    "date": "2024-03-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-happy-groundhog-day-the-ai-edition-b96215",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/happy-groundhog-day-the-ai-edition",
    "title": "Happy Groundhog Day, The AI Edition",
    "date": "2023-02-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-034b55",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs still have trouble with causality, physical, psychological and mathematical reasoning, even if they now pass the specific published examples."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-133d87",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:47Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs do not come close to delivering what was initially promised."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-1f990b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Excessive enthusiasm for LLMs has drawn attention and resources away from other parts of AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-4100fb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:47Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": "AGI will eventually arrive but not soon, and will require new ideas because the field's current hypothesis has basically been disproven."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-58c990",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: AI features in web search reached over a billion users a month in 2024..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-685f41",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-801f0e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:41Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": "An AI being stupid or overrated does not stop it being dangerous; such AI can be misused for propaganda and deepfakes."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-808ee9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:26Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-8d3517",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e4 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Recent statements from industry leaders like Andreessen, Nadella and Pichai confirm Marcus's earlier predictions about LLM limitations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-bc2c70",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:41Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-12-06); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Many students, perhaps most of OpenAI's users, use LLMs daily to write term papers, and coders use them heavily too."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-dc7614",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: conditions_shown, rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: OpenAI also says the campaigns gained little reach, but the claim is only that the use happened. | The evidence does not show how common or effective any of the three uses were..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-e5fb10-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted",
    "title": "Hard-forked! Casey Newton’s distorted portrait of Gary Marcus and AI skepticism",
    "date": "2024-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-has-google-gone-too-woke-why-even-262cdc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024-02, which is not inside the period described (2022-12-25 to 2024-02-21); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-google-gone-too-woke-why-even",
    "title": "Has Google gone too woke? Why even the biggest models still struggle with guardrails",
    "date": "2024-02-21"
   },
   "proposition": "Google's latest Gemini patch is perhaps notable for its clumsiness, but in many ways it is quite close to the patch OpenAI had in place a year earlier, when Marcus asked about Jewish presidents."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-has-google-gone-too-woke-why-even-510ab1-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:11Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-google-gone-too-woke-why-even",
    "title": "Has Google gone too woke? Why even the biggest models still struggle with guardrails",
    "date": "2024-02-21"
   },
   "proposition": "As of the day before the post, Gemini seemed wildly too restrictive on some other queries."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-has-google-gone-too-woke-why-even-e97e57",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-google-gone-too-woke-why-even",
    "title": "Has Google gone too woke? Why even the biggest models still struggle with guardrails",
    "date": "2024-02-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-has-sam-altman-gone-full-gary-marcus-18d1cc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-sam-altman-gone-full-gary-marcus",
    "title": "Has Sam Altman gone full Gary Marcus?",
    "date": "2023-11-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-has-sam-altman-gone-full-gary-marcus-208fb5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:24Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-sam-altman-gone-full-gary-marcus",
    "title": "Has Sam Altman gone full Gary Marcus?",
    "date": "2023-11-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Large language models will not get us to AGI; a new paradigm is needed."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-has-sam-altman-gone-full-gary-marcus-63afdb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e4 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-sam-altman-gone-full-gary-marcus",
    "title": "Has Sam Altman gone full Gary Marcus?",
    "date": "2023-11-16"
   },
   "proposition": "As of November 2023, little has fundamentally changed since March 2022: hallucinations remain rampant and LLMs still make many ridiculous errors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-has-the-bailout-of-generative-ai-39d826",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-the-bailout-of-generative-ai",
    "title": "Has the bailout of generative AI already begun?",
    "date": "2025-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-has-the-bailout-of-generative-ai-e9002b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-the-bailout-of-generative-ai",
    "title": "Has the bailout of generative AI already begun?",
    "date": "2025-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-has-the-chinese-government-figured-665d8f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:00Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-the-chinese-government-figured",
    "title": "Has the Chinese government figured out the fact that GPUs ≠ AGI?",
    "date": "2025-12-09"
   },
   "proposition": "China appears, to some degree, not to want the Nvidia H200s it is now licensed to buy."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-has-the-chinese-government-figured-6c6c23",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-the-chinese-government-figured",
    "title": "Has the Chinese government figured out the fact that GPUs ≠ AGI?",
    "date": "2025-12-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-have-llms-improved-patient-outcomes-c1f91e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:28:23Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved, openai forecast_outcome/conclusive_event/supported.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/have-llms-improved-patient-outcomes",
    "title": "Have LLMs improved patient outcomes?",
    "date": "2026-05-03"
   },
   "proposition": "AI will at some unspecified future point be a major boon for medicine."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hello-multimodal-hallucinations-ce95ba",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hello-multimodal-hallucinations",
    "title": "Hello, Multimodal Hallucinations",
    "date": "2023-10-21"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus offers to take Reid Hoffman's bet for $100,000, betting against Hoffman's claim that hallucinations can be brought down to the human-expert rate within months."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hinton-vs-lecun-vs-ng-vs-tegmark-030332",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hinton-vs-lecun-vs-ng-vs-tegmark",
    "title": "Hinton vs LeCun vs Ng vs Tegmark vs O",
    "date": "2023-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hinton-vs-lecun-vs-ng-vs-tegmark-f67dde",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hinton-vs-lecun-vs-ng-vs-tegmark",
    "title": "Hinton vs LeCun vs Ng vs Tegmark vs O",
    "date": "2023-11-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-historic-un-security-council-briefing-2ddee6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:59Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/historic-un-security-council-briefing",
    "title": "Historic UN Security Council Briefing on AI",
    "date": "2026-09-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Nearly all speakers at the UN Security Council AI briefing, including Altman and Amodei, agreed on the policy measures Marcus has long called for."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-historic-un-security-council-briefing-7b262f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/historic-un-security-council-briefing",
    "title": "Historic UN Security Council Briefing on AI",
    "date": "2026-09-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-historic-un-security-council-briefing-a3f21d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:29:59Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e4 is dated 2026-09-24, which is not inside the period described (2026-09-23 to 2026-09-23); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/historic-un-security-council-briefing",
    "title": "Historic UN Security Council Briefing on AI",
    "date": "2026-09-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Amodei overhyped an enzyme discovery announced earlier that day by prematurely trying to liken it to the gene-editing system CRISPR, which Marcus calls truly revolutionary."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-horse-rides-astronaut-20af65",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:30:34Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2022-05, which is not inside the period described (2022-05-01 to 2022-05-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/horse-rides-astronaut",
    "title": "Horse rides astronaut",
    "date": "2022-05-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Imagen fails to draw a horse riding an astronaut from that prompt."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-horse-rides-astronaut-249725",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:30:34Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a causal claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/horse-rides-astronaut",
    "title": "Horse rides astronaut",
    "date": "2022-05-28"
   },
   "proposition": "It remains to be seen whether Imagen can in general be coaxed into producing particular images by sufficiently fluent users, and the answer will help determine whether artists stick with these systems after the novelty wears off."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-horse-rides-astronaut-889e7b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:41:18Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/horse-rides-astronaut",
    "title": "Horse rides astronaut",
    "date": "2022-05-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-horse-rides-astronaut-redux-a405cb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/horse-rides-astronaut-redux",
    "title": "Horse rides Astronaut, redux",
    "date": "2024-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger-07827b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger",
    "title": "Hot take: GPT 4.5 is a nothing burger",
    "date": "2025-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger-41ce40",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger",
    "title": "Hot take: GPT 4.5 is a nothing burger",
    "date": "2025-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": "In Marcus's view, as any reasonable person with a scientific mind would say, scaling was a hypothesis, roughly twice the Apollo Project's inflation-adjusted cost was invested in it, and there is still not that much to show for it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger-47659e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger",
    "title": "Hot take: GPT 4.5 is a nothing burger",
    "date": "2025-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger-c98abc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger",
    "title": "Hot take: GPT 4.5 is a nothing burger",
    "date": "2025-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 still does not exist; it remains a fantasy."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger-ea651f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:31:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger",
    "title": "Hot take: GPT 4.5 is a nothing burger",
    "date": "2025-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": "On some measures, GPT-4.5 is only barely better than the latest Claude."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger-fe32a7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-gpt-45-is-a-nothing-burger",
    "title": "Hot take: GPT 4.5 is a nothing burger",
    "date": "2025-02-27"
   },
   "proposition": "After half a trillion dollars, there is still no viable business model in AI, profits are modest at best for everyone except Nvidia and some consulting firms, there is still basically no moat, and there is still no GPT-5."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-on-a-weak-white-house-accord-6f7114",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-on-a-weak-white-house-accord",
    "title": "Hot take on a weak White House Accord on “Super Intelligence”",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Dario, Sam, and Elon all chickened out, apparently on the pacing that people had been discussing two weeks earlier."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-on-a-weak-white-house-accord-8ee89c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-on-a-weak-white-house-accord",
    "title": "Hot take on a weak White House Accord on “Super Intelligence”",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-on-googles-gemini-3-10d740",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:32:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-on-googles-gemini-3",
    "title": "Hot take on Google’s Gemini 3",
    "date": "2025-11-19"
   },
   "proposition": "Gemini 3 is a great LLM that tops most benchmarks but is certainly not AGI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-on-googles-gemini-3-724a01",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:32:10Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-on-googles-gemini-3",
    "title": "Hot take on Google’s Gemini 3",
    "date": "2025-11-19"
   },
   "proposition": "The usual reports of silly errors and embarrassing results from Gemini 3 trickled out within hours of Google announcing it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-on-googles-gemini-3-c040fa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:32:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-on-googles-gemini-3",
    "title": "Hot take on Google’s Gemini 3",
    "date": "2025-11-19"
   },
   "proposition": "Gemini 3 still suffers from hallucinations and unreliability, like all earlier models."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-on-googles-gemini-3-d0a7cf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:41:31Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-on-googles-gemini-3",
    "title": "Hot take on Google’s Gemini 3",
    "date": "2025-11-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-on-googles-gemini-and-gpt-54d938",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:56:11Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-on-googles-gemini-and-gpt",
    "title": "Hot take on Google’s Gemini and GPT-4",
    "date": "2023-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Gemini appears by many measures to have matched or slightly exceeded GPT-4 but not to have blown it away."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-on-googles-gemini-and-gpt-9ab98a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:09:58Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-on-googles-gemini-and-gpt",
    "title": "Hot take on Google’s Gemini and GPT-4",
    "date": "2023-12-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-on-openais-new-gpt-4o-48cb2a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-on-openais-new-gpt-4o",
    "title": "Hot take on OpenAI’s new GPT-4o",
    "date": "2024-05-13"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-4o's speech synthesis is terrific and reminds him of Google Duplex, which never took off."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hot-take-on-openais-new-gpt-4o-b9d008",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:41:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: its evaluation prose also describes parity with Turbo in text, reasoning, and coding..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hot-take-on-openais-new-gpt-4o",
    "title": "Hot take on OpenAI’s new GPT-4o",
    "date": "2024-05-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-0fea27",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled",
    "title": "How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity",
    "date": "2026-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": "None of the qualitative concerns Marcus raises about LLMs had been solved, and expecting all of them to be solved within 24-36 months beggars belief."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-165b39",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:32:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled",
    "title": "How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity",
    "date": "2026-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-23d009",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:42:25Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: Company claim that an LLM assistant handled customer chats on its own at scale..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled",
    "title": "How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity",
    "date": "2026-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-4085ea",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled",
    "title": "How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity",
    "date": "2026-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-67ebe8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:32:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled",
    "title": "How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity",
    "date": "2026-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-7e1f6e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled",
    "title": "How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity",
    "date": "2026-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-8da174",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled",
    "title": "How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity",
    "date": "2026-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-a674ed",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:42:25Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: In a tournament of eight leading LLMs, most first-round matches had more games lost to illegal moves than to checkmate..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled",
    "title": "How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity",
    "date": "2026-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-aa5fa5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled",
    "title": "How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity",
    "date": "2026-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus finds it laughable that people think all of the listed LLM problems will be fully solved and put in production in the next three years."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-c9ea80",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled",
    "title": "How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity",
    "date": "2026-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-d869b2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled",
    "title": "How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity",
    "date": "2026-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-53b72f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-china-might-crush-the-west-in",
    "title": "How China might crush the West in the race to AGI if we don’t up our regulatory game",
    "date": "2023-04-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-595ea5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:41:40Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-china-might-crush-the-west-in",
    "title": "How China might crush the West in the race to AGI if we don’t up our regulatory game",
    "date": "2023-04-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-8ebd5b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-china-might-crush-the-west-in",
    "title": "How China might crush the West in the race to AGI if we don’t up our regulatory game",
    "date": "2023-04-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-df4765",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:31:50Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2023-04, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-04-25); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-china-might-crush-the-west-in",
    "title": "How China might crush the West in the race to AGI if we don’t up our regulatory game",
    "date": "2023-04-25"
   },
   "proposition": "Getting LLMs to consistently align with any set of ethical values is a major unsolved challenge."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-e2417a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-china-might-crush-the-west-in",
    "title": "How China might crush the West in the race to AGI if we don’t up our regulatory game",
    "date": "2023-04-25"
   },
   "proposition": "Under China's regulatory requirements, bots that don't toe the Communist Party line will be banned."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-e8ae9f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-china-might-crush-the-west-in",
    "title": "How China might crush the West in the race to AGI if we don’t up our regulatory game",
    "date": "2023-04-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-1a85ab",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:31:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant",
    "title": "How come GPT can seem so brilliant one minute and so breathtakingly dumb the next?",
    "date": "2022-12-01"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT does not know which entities properly go with which properties."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-ba6d55",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant",
    "title": "How come GPT can seem so brilliant one minute and so breathtakingly dumb the next?",
    "date": "2022-12-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-dff37d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:31:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant",
    "title": "How come GPT can seem so brilliant one minute and so breathtakingly dumb the next?",
    "date": "2022-12-01"
   },
   "proposition": "For now, a human is still needed to judge which of GPT's plausible fragments actually belong together."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-come-smart-assistants-have-virtually-74fed4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:32:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-come-smart-assistants-have-virtually",
    "title": "How come smart assistants have virtually no ability to converse, despite all the spectacular progress with large language models?",
    "date": "2022-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": "A sentence produced by an LLM cannot directly be used to control things unless another system is built to parse sentences into actions, and nobody knows how to build that reliably."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-generative-ai-is-destroying-society-aecb23",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-generative-ai-is-destroying-society",
    "title": "How Generative AI is destroying society",
    "date": "2026-01-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-much-should-openais-abandoned-804402",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:31:09Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review abstained.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-much-should-openais-abandoned",
    "title": "How much should OpenAI’s abandoned promises be worth?",
    "date": "2024-09-30"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI is seeking to renege on its nonprofit promises and become a for-profit company."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-much-should-openais-abandoned-c00cac-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:31:09Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review abstained.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-much-should-openais-abandoned",
    "title": "How much should OpenAI’s abandoned promises be worth?",
    "date": "2024-09-30"
   },
   "proposition": "If OpenAI-style nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions are allowed for free, people will exploit nonprofit rules without limit in future."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-new-are-yann-lecuns-new-ideas-5aa80f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-new-are-yann-lecuns-new-ideas",
    "title": "How New are Yann LeCun’s “New” Ideas?",
    "date": "2022-09-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-new-are-yann-lecuns-new-ideas-71c492",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:31:13Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-new-are-yann-lecuns-new-ideas",
    "title": "How New are Yann LeCun’s “New” Ideas?",
    "date": "2022-09-25"
   },
   "proposition": "AI cannot really be solved with large language models alone."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-not-to-test-gpt-3-07ba9a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:33:07Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023-02, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-02-17); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-not-to-test-gpt-3",
    "title": "How Not to Test GPT-3",
    "date": "2023-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "Apparently fixed LLM failures often reemerge with slight rephrasings or slightly different examples."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-not-to-test-gpt-3-38bf21",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-not-to-test-gpt-3",
    "title": "How Not to Test GPT-3",
    "date": "2023-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-not-to-test-gpt-3-4a0eb5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:43:04Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-not-to-test-gpt-3",
    "title": "How Not to Test GPT-3",
    "date": "2023-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-not-to-test-gpt-3-60f4e5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:33:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023-02, which is not inside the period described (2023-02-04 to 2023-02-17); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2023-02, which is not inside the period described (2023-02-04 to 2023-02-17); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-not-to-test-gpt-3",
    "title": "How Not to Test GPT-3",
    "date": "2023-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "Kosinski's study does not prove that GPT-3 has abstracted a generalized theory of mind, because its tests are well represented in training data."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-not-to-test-gpt-3-691a5d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:43:04Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-not-to-test-gpt-3",
    "title": "How Not to Test GPT-3",
    "date": "2023-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-not-to-test-gpt-3-96daed",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:33:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-not-to-test-gpt-3",
    "title": "How Not to Test GPT-3",
    "date": "2023-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-3's training data almost certainly included repeated descriptions of the classic false-belief experiments."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-not-to-test-gpt-3-daeb87",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:42:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-not-to-test-gpt-3",
    "title": "How Not to Test GPT-3",
    "date": "2023-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-not-to-test-gpt-3-edc1c2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:33:28Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2022-01-01 to 2023-02-17); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-not-to-test-gpt-3",
    "title": "How Not to Test GPT-3",
    "date": "2023-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs have many critical weaknesses in the basic domains of time, space, and human interactions."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-not-to-test-gpt-3-f4f449",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:33:28Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-not-to-test-gpt-3",
    "title": "How Not to Test GPT-3",
    "date": "2023-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "Large language models and other machine-learning-based AIs, such as machine translation systems, improve overall over time (since unimproved versions aren't released), but they don't improve across the board."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-5b05c1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated",
    "title": "How o3 and Grok 4 Accidentally Vindicated Neurosymbolic AI",
    "date": "2025-07-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-95a315",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:34:25Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated",
    "title": "How o3 and Grok 4 Accidentally Vindicated Neurosymbolic AI",
    "date": "2025-07-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Most modern models appear to rely heavily on training data generated by symbolic rule systems."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-a564b3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:34:32Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated",
    "title": "How o3 and Grok 4 Accidentally Vindicated Neurosymbolic AI",
    "date": "2025-07-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus says it is quite clear from the Grok 4 Humanity's Last Exam graph that pure scaling of training data and compute is reaching diminishing returns a long way from peak possible performance, and that increasing compute alone is not driving an exponential explosion into superintelligence."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-ae505a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:42:27Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: A minority view holds that grounding is partly solved..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated",
    "title": "How o3 and Grok 4 Accidentally Vindicated Neurosymbolic AI",
    "date": "2025-07-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-ae5cd0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:34:32Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated",
    "title": "How o3 and Grok 4 Accidentally Vindicated Neurosymbolic AI",
    "date": "2025-07-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Importing neurosymbolic ideas, including symbolic algorithms in the workflow, has worked to some degree."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-c58a66",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated",
    "title": "How o3 and Grok 4 Accidentally Vindicated Neurosymbolic AI",
    "date": "2025-07-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-ec4d5f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:34:43Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review abstained.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated",
    "title": "How o3 and Grok 4 Accidentally Vindicated Neurosymbolic AI",
    "date": "2025-07-13"
   },
   "proposition": "AI reasoning remains unreliable and spatial reasoning is far from solved."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-humanitys-oh-shit-ai-moment-174a11",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:34:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/humanitys-oh-shit-ai-moment",
    "title": "Humanity’s “Oh shit!” AI moment?",
    "date": "2024-12-12"
   },
   "proposition": "There will be a lot of GenAI-driven cybercrime in the coming years."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-humanitys-oh-shit-ai-moment-c982d8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:34:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/humanitys-oh-shit-ai-moment",
    "title": "Humanity’s “Oh shit!” AI moment?",
    "date": "2024-12-12"
   },
   "proposition": "Congress achieved little on AI regulation and anti-regulation AI advocates like Andreessen are succeeding."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-humans-versus-machines-the-hallucination-5d4b70",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:35:36Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/humans-versus-machines-the-hallucination",
    "title": "Humans versus Machines: The Hallucination Edition",
    "date": "2024-04-21"
   },
   "proposition": "LLM errors result from a different underlying process than human errors: because LLMs lack intentions, egos, and financial interests, they do not lie, and they also do not take drugs and do not have emotional states."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hype-anthropics-dario-amodei-the-b1e097",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:35:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/elapsed/supported, openai forecast_outcome/elapsed/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hype-anthropics-dario-amodei-the",
    "title": "Hype, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, the podcasters who love him — and how the New York Times’ commentary on AI has degenerated into industry cheerleading",
    "date": "2025-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": "AGI will not arrive in 2025."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hype-anthropics-dario-amodei-the-ba2817",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:43:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hype-anthropics-dario-amodei-the",
    "title": "Hype, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, the podcasters who love him — and how the New York Times’ commentary on AI has degenerated into industry cheerleading",
    "date": "2025-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hype-anthropics-dario-amodei-the-cf1493",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:35:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hype-anthropics-dario-amodei-the",
    "title": "Hype, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, the podcasters who love him — and how the New York Times’ commentary on AI has degenerated into industry cheerleading",
    "date": "2025-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Dario Amodei has quietly slipped his AGI predictions back, so that he now mostly talks about 2026-2027 rather than 2025-2026."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-hype-anthropics-dario-amodei-the-dd8418",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:43:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/hype-anthropics-dario-amodei-the",
    "title": "Hype, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, the podcasters who love him — and how the New York Times’ commentary on AI has degenerated into industry cheerleading",
    "date": "2025-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-i-am-not-afraid-of-robots-i-am-afraid-40e1b5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:34:32Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/i-am-not-afraid-of-robots-i-am-afraid",
    "title": "I am not afraid of robots. I am afraid of people.",
    "date": "2023-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI has effectively become a for-profit oriented around Microsoft's goals, de-emphasizing its humanitarian charter, a shift accelerated by the $10 billion Microsoft deal."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-i-am-not-afraid-of-robots-i-am-afraid-5780dc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/i-am-not-afraid-of-robots-i-am-afraid",
    "title": "I am not afraid of robots. I am afraid of people.",
    "date": "2023-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": "There are tons of examples of successful regulation, such as seatbelt laws, which have saved something like 300,000 lives."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-i-am-not-afraid-of-robots-i-am-afraid-8e9a24",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/i-am-not-afraid-of-robots-i-am-afraid",
    "title": "I am not afraid of robots. I am afraid of people.",
    "date": "2023-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-i-am-not-afraid-of-robots-i-am-afraid-ab7223",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/i-am-not-afraid-of-robots-i-am-afraid",
    "title": "I am not afraid of robots. I am afraid of people.",
    "date": "2023-04-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-i-think-the-answer-is-we-have-to-007574",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:43:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/i-think-the-answer-is-we-have-to",
    "title": "“I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang",
    "date": "2026-09-24"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-i-think-the-answer-is-we-have-to-24c74c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/i-think-the-answer-is-we-have-to",
    "title": "“I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang",
    "date": "2026-09-24"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-i-think-the-answer-is-we-have-to-86efbf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/i-think-the-answer-is-we-have-to",
    "title": "“I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang",
    "date": "2026-09-24"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-enough-other-companies-report-10aa77",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-enough-other-companies-report",
    "title": "If enough other companies report the same, the bubble pops. 🫧",
    "date": "2026-05-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-enough-other-companies-report-1c0cee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:35:08Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e2 measures something else (metric Consumption of annual AI coding-tool (Claude Code) budget is not Consumption of annual AI token / AI coding-tool budget); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 measures something else (metric Consumption of annual AI coding-tool budget is not Consumption of annual AI token / AI coding-tool budget); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-enough-other-companies-report",
    "title": "If enough other companies report the same, the bubble pops. 🫧",
    "date": "2026-05-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Uber used up its annual AI token budget within a few months and does not feel the spending is paying off as hoped."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-enough-other-companies-report-3a4c2d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:44:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-enough-other-companies-report",
    "title": "If enough other companies report the same, the bubble pops. 🫧",
    "date": "2026-05-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Starbucks just shut down an AI inventory experiment because it realized the system couldn't be trusted."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-enough-other-companies-report-71bf3a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:44:03Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-enough-other-companies-report",
    "title": "If enough other companies report the same, the bubble pops. 🫧",
    "date": "2026-05-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-enough-other-companies-report-9bc83a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:44:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: AI capital spending was still rising in October 2026, which suggests no collapse in AI investment had happened by then..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-enough-other-companies-report",
    "title": "If enough other companies report the same, the bubble pops. 🫧",
    "date": "2026-05-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-enough-other-companies-report-b0b032",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-enough-other-companies-report",
    "title": "If enough other companies report the same, the bubble pops. 🫧",
    "date": "2026-05-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Index funds, a staple of many people's retirement funds, are going to be more or less forced to rapidly absorb the three not-yet-profitable companies expected to IPO soon, which he calls exercises in fantastical thinking."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-enough-other-companies-report-c5b6f5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:34:12Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-enough-other-companies-report",
    "title": "If enough other companies report the same, the bubble pops. 🫧",
    "date": "2026-05-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-you-thought-the-2008-bank-bailout-0d7af7-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:36:06Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 measures something else (metric revenue is not spending (expenses, net loss, cash burn) relative to revenue); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (metric research and development expense is not spending (expenses, net loss, cash burn) relative to revenue); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 measures something else (metric net loss (implied from Microsoft equity-method share) is not spending (expenses, net loss, cash burn) relative to revenue); it can only be con",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-you-thought-the-2008-bank-bailout",
    "title": "OpenAI probably can’t make ends meet. That’s where you come in.",
    "date": "2025-11-05"
   },
   "proposition": "The AI companies that would be bailed out are overhyping, economically shaky, and spend far more than they earn."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-you-thought-the-2008-bank-bailout-485b9f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:36:06Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-you-thought-the-2008-bank-bailout",
    "title": "OpenAI probably can’t make ends meet. That’s where you come in.",
    "date": "2025-11-05"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI is taking on about $1.4 trillion in obligations against roughly $13 billion in revenue."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-you-thought-the-2008-bank-bailout-4c1834",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-you-thought-the-2008-bank-bailout",
    "title": "OpenAI probably can’t make ends meet. That’s where you come in.",
    "date": "2025-11-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-you-thought-the-2008-bank-bailout-ac4ba3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-you-thought-the-2008-bank-bailout",
    "title": "OpenAI probably can’t make ends meet. That’s where you come in.",
    "date": "2025-11-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Exactly the game described in Marcus's tweet from almost 10 months earlier is now on, which in context means seeking indirect taxpayer backing for AI borrowing."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-if-you-thought-the-2008-bank-bailout-c607e4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:36:06Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/if-you-thought-the-2008-bank-bailout",
    "title": "OpenAI probably can’t make ends meet. That’s where you come in.",
    "date": "2025-11-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Nvidia appears to be pursuing the same play of seeking government support as OpenAI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-image-generation-still-crazy-after-07b4ac",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:36:26Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/image-generation-still-crazy-after",
    "title": "Image generation: Still crazy after all these years",
    "date": "2025-06-25"
   },
   "proposition": "Imagen 4 is far better than the original in some ways, especially text rendering, but failed all four attempts to draw a horse riding an astronaut."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-image-generation-still-crazy-after-21c28b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/image-generation-still-crazy-after",
    "title": "Image generation: Still crazy after all these years",
    "date": "2025-06-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-image-generation-still-crazy-after-291502",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:36:26Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/image-generation-still-crazy-after",
    "title": "Image generation: Still crazy after all these years",
    "date": "2025-06-25"
   },
   "proposition": "o3 does better on some old examples but still cannot correctly generate the new woman-and-watch image."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-image-generation-still-crazy-after-aaf1c6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:37:36Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/image-generation-still-crazy-after",
    "title": "Image generation: Still crazy after all these years",
    "date": "2025-06-25"
   },
   "proposition": "Even three years later, you can't count on Imagen to correctly interpret any given prompt, because its language understanding is still far from perfect."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-image-generation-still-crazy-after-bcccc6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:37:36Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/image-generation-still-crazy-after",
    "title": "Image generation: Still crazy after all these years",
    "date": "2025-06-25"
   },
   "proposition": "Like Sora, Google's Veo failed to generate correct video of a person handwriting a phrase in a planner."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-image-generation-still-crazy-after-e72e7a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:37:36Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/image-generation-still-crazy-after",
    "title": "Image generation: Still crazy after all these years",
    "date": "2025-06-25"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT could not generate a tree on top of a monkey, even after acknowledging its own error."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-in-the-iran-war-it-looks-like-ai-c4a509",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:44:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e2 explanation: \"This substantial verified result qualifies the blanket claim...\" states Google's own 'verified' label as fact, which contradicts the limitation that the packet has no separate verification report..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/in-the-iran-war-it-looks-like-ai",
    "title": "In the Iran war, it looks like AI helped with operations, not strategy",
    "date": "2026-04-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-information-pollution-reaches-new-700dea",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/information-pollution-reaches-new",
    "title": "Information pollution reaches new heights",
    "date": "2024-04-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-information-pollution-reaches-new-f3b0bd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:36:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e4 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/information-pollution-reaches-new",
    "title": "Information pollution reaches new heights",
    "date": "2024-04-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Contrary to Yann LeCun's late-2022 claim, AI-generated misinformation has gained traction."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-inside-the-heart-of-chatgpts-darkness-387788",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/inside-the-heart-of-chatgpts-darkness",
    "title": "Inside the Heart of ChatGPT’s Darkness",
    "date": "2023-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT's guardrails do not come from a conceptual understanding that the system should not recommend violence, but from something far more superficial and more easily tricked."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-inside-the-heart-of-chatgpts-darkness-7d21ad",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/inside-the-heart-of-chatgpts-darkness",
    "title": "Inside the Heart of ChatGPT’s Darkness",
    "date": "2023-02-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-irony-irony-laced-with-karma-and-d2db92",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/irony-irony-laced-with-karma-and",
    "title": "Irony, Irony laced with Karma, and Terror",
    "date": "2026-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-irony-too-funny-for-words-85aaf4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/irony-too-funny-for-words",
    "title": "Irony too funny for words",
    "date": "2025-02-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-agi-the-right-goal-for-ai-953b20",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-agi-the-right-goal-for-ai",
    "title": "Is AGI the right goal for AI?",
    "date": "2025-10-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-ai-already-killing-people-by-accident-309b11",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-ai-already-killing-people-by-accident",
    "title": "Is AI already killing people by accident?",
    "date": "2026-03-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-ai-already-killing-people-by-accident-49fc9b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-ai-already-killing-people-by-accident",
    "title": "Is AI already killing people by accident?",
    "date": "2026-03-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-ai-already-killing-people-by-accident-653669",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:44:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: Shows that attributing even the original incident to AI was disputed and unresolved for months. | This makes later attributions hard to establish..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-ai-already-killing-people-by-accident",
    "title": "Is AI already killing people by accident?",
    "date": "2026-03-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-ai-already-killing-people-by-accident-bb1267",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:37:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e4 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-ai-already-killing-people-by-accident",
    "title": "Is AI already killing people by accident?",
    "date": "2026-03-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI still has serious problems with reasoning and visual cognition."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-ai-already-killing-people-by-accident-ca4247",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-ai-already-killing-people-by-accident",
    "title": "Is AI already killing people by accident?",
    "date": "2026-03-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for-5c1f61",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for",
    "title": "Is ChatGPT Really a “Code Red” for Google Search?",
    "date": "2022-12-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for-5f9b0b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for",
    "title": "Is ChatGPT Really a “Code Red” for Google Search?",
    "date": "2022-12-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for-80d635",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:44:49Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for",
    "title": "Is ChatGPT Really a “Code Red” for Google Search?",
    "date": "2022-12-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for-93dc82",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:36:48Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2022-12, which is not inside the period described (2022-11-01 to 2022-12-30); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for",
    "title": "Is ChatGPT Really a “Code Red” for Google Search?",
    "date": "2022-12-30"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs are text predictors, essentially turbocharged autocomplete, not databases."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for-b31faa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:36:48Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2022-12, which is not inside the period described (2022-12-01 to 2022-12-30); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for",
    "title": "Is ChatGPT Really a “Code Red” for Google Search?",
    "date": "2022-12-30"
   },
   "proposition": "Hybrid search/LLM systems are only at proof-of-concept stage and are nothing like systems that can be relied upon."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for-ea00b4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:36:32Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e10 is dated 2022-12, which is not inside the period described (2022-12-01 to 2022-12-30); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-chatgpt-really-a-code-red-for",
    "title": "Is ChatGPT Really a “Code Red” for Google Search?",
    "date": "2022-12-30"
   },
   "proposition": "Perplexity.ai and you.com are exploring an interesting idea in hybrids of classical search and LLMs, which may allow swifter updates."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-it-time-to-hit-the-pause-button-4288be",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:36:44Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-it-time-to-hit-the-pause-button",
    "title": "Is it time to hit the pause button on AI?",
    "date": "2023-02-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Microsoft, by releasing Bing chat likely knowing of prior disturbing incidents, ignored its own stated ethical principles."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-it-time-to-hit-the-pause-button-f71829",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-it-time-to-hit-the-pause-button",
    "title": "Is it time to hit the pause button on AI?",
    "date": "2023-02-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Chatbots are causing colleges to scramble because plagiarism has become newly easy, and the frequent plausible, authoritative but wrong answers chatbots give, which could be mistaken for fact, are also troubling."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal-0c09b1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:54:00Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal",
    "title": "Is Microsoft about to get the deal of the century? Or is Sam Altman unloading OpenAI at just the right time?",
    "date": "2023-01-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal-576a9d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:31Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal",
    "title": "Is Microsoft about to get the deal of the century? Or is Sam Altman unloading OpenAI at just the right time?",
    "date": "2023-01-11"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT is super expensive to operate (rumored at about $3 million/day), and OpenAI's revenue so far is modest (perhaps low tens of millions)."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal-7cc6a9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:39Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal",
    "title": "Is Microsoft about to get the deal of the century? Or is Sam Altman unloading OpenAI at just the right time?",
    "date": "2023-01-11"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus says he has argued that ChatGPT will not displace Google, but acknowledges that nobody knows."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal-c632ad",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal",
    "title": "Is Microsoft about to get the deal of the century? Or is Sam Altman unloading OpenAI at just the right time?",
    "date": "2023-01-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal-ea3b51",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:39Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal",
    "title": "Is Microsoft about to get the deal of the century? Or is Sam Altman unloading OpenAI at just the right time?",
    "date": "2023-01-11"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs are quickly becoming commodities, and it is unclear OpenAI has any unique, protectable IP."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal-eb2c3d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:39Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-microsoft-about-to-get-the-deal",
    "title": "Is Microsoft about to get the deal of the century? Or is Sam Altman unloading OpenAI at just the right time?",
    "date": "2023-01-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-openai-more-like-wework-or-theranos-1b1d05",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-openai-more-like-wework-or-theranos",
    "title": "Is OpenAI more like WeWork or Theranos?",
    "date": "2024-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-openai-more-like-wework-or-theranos-6dec7a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-openai-more-like-wework-or-theranos",
    "title": "Is OpenAI more like WeWork or Theranos?",
    "date": "2024-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-openai-more-like-wework-or-theranos-b0c761",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:55:35Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e8 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e9 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-openai-more-like-wework-or-theranos",
    "title": "Is OpenAI more like WeWork or Theranos?",
    "date": "2024-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's o1 is expensive to operate and far from a general solution."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-openai-more-like-wework-or-theranos-be0992",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:39:01Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-openai-more-like-wework-or-theranos",
    "title": "Is OpenAI more like WeWork or Theranos?",
    "date": "2024-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as he can tell, the capability-progress graph posted by an OpenAI employee does not plot real data and does not make clear that it is merely hypothetical."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-openai-more-like-wework-or-theranos-fdd3e7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:39:01Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-openai-more-like-wework-or-theranos",
    "title": "Is OpenAI more like WeWork or Theranos?",
    "date": "2024-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's valuation and press coverage rest largely on promise rather than delivered results."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-great-ai-meltdown-imminent-197875",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:56:22Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-great-ai-meltdown-imminent",
    "title": "Is the Great AI meltdown imminent? [NSFW]",
    "date": "2026-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Nvidia has apparently pulled back from its $100B OpenAI commitment and is hinting at about $20B instead."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-great-ai-meltdown-imminent-215aaf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:56:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-great-ai-meltdown-imminent",
    "title": "Is the Great AI meltdown imminent? [NSFW]",
    "date": "2026-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-great-ai-meltdown-imminent-c152b7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:56:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-great-ai-meltdown-imminent",
    "title": "Is the Great AI meltdown imminent? [NSFW]",
    "date": "2026-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": "The big economic news in AI in 2025 was circular financing, such as a deal in which Nvidia was supposedly going to put $100 billion into OpenAI, which would then buy a lot of Nvidia chips."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-great-ai-meltdown-imminent-ef92d5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:56:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-great-ai-meltdown-imminent",
    "title": "Is the Great AI meltdown imminent? [NSFW]",
    "date": "2026-02-05"
   },
   "proposition": "The circular financing arrangements in AI from 2025 are poised to collapse, which he calls the big economic news in AI in 2026."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-us-military-actually-afraid-270422",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-us-military-actually-afraid",
    "title": "Is the US military actually afraid of Claude? A new theory of why Anthropic was labeled a supply chain risk.",
    "date": "2026-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-us-military-actually-afraid-66fe71",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-us-military-actually-afraid",
    "title": "Is the US military actually afraid of Claude? A new theory of why Anthropic was labeled a supply chain risk.",
    "date": "2026-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-us-military-actually-afraid-693624",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-us-military-actually-afraid",
    "title": "Is the US military actually afraid of Claude? A new theory of why Anthropic was labeled a supply chain risk.",
    "date": "2026-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": "Putting hallucinating LLMs into war machines can be dangerous, and this danger is in no way specific to Anthropic."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-us-military-actually-afraid-d4c99b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-us-military-actually-afraid",
    "title": "Is the US military actually afraid of Claude? A new theory of why Anthropic was labeled a supply chain risk.",
    "date": "2026-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-us-military-actually-afraid-ea3f1c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-us-military-actually-afraid",
    "title": "Is the US military actually afraid of Claude? A new theory of why Anthropic was labeled a supply chain risk.",
    "date": "2026-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-white-houses-ai-policy-coherent-0f84e3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-white-houses-ai-policy-coherent",
    "title": "Is the White House’s AI Policy Coherent?",
    "date": "2025-12-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-white-houses-ai-policy-coherent-3a1410",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:54:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e1 public excerpt \"No federal legislation\" cuts off \"establishing broad regulatory authorities for the development or use of AI\" and reads as if no federal AI law exists at all. The same CRS summary says targeted AI provisions have been enacted. | e2 explanation \"It also identifies uncertainty and barriers to remedies\": the retrieved NTIA text supports uncertainty, but nothing in it mentions barriers to remedies..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-white-houses-ai-policy-coherent",
    "title": "Is the White House’s AI Policy Coherent?",
    "date": "2025-12-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-white-houses-ai-policy-coherent-8c42e8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e6 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-white-houses-ai-policy-coherent",
    "title": "Is the White House’s AI Policy Coherent?",
    "date": "2025-12-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Every poll Marcus has seen shows the vast majority of the public wanting AI regulation, and he doubts people will be fond of selling advanced chips to China."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-white-houses-ai-policy-coherent-ee784e-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-white-houses-ai-policy-coherent",
    "title": "Is the White House’s AI Policy Coherent?",
    "date": "2025-12-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-the-white-houses-ai-policy-coherent-fef772",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-the-white-houses-ai-policy-coherent",
    "title": "Is the White House’s AI Policy Coherent?",
    "date": "2025-12-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-this-the-moment-when-the-generative-8d3ad0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:39:34Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 is dated 2025-08, which is not inside the period described (2023-03 to 2025-08-20); it can only be context; e4 is dated 2025-08, which is not inside the period described (2023-03 to 2025-08-20); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-this-the-moment-when-the-generative",
    "title": "Is this the moment when the Generative AI bubble finally deflates?",
    "date": "2025-08-20"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 arrived long overdue and did not come close to delivering what Altman had promised for years."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-this-the-moment-when-the-generative-c2af0d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:39:34Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-this-the-moment-when-the-generative",
    "title": "Is this the moment when the Generative AI bubble finally deflates?",
    "date": "2025-08-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-this-the-moment-when-the-generative-d785c2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:54:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The early-resolution rule needs Nvidia data center revenue or combined hyperscaler AI capital spending to fall more than 30% year over year for two or more quarters in a row. | The packet has nothing on the period after that quarter..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-this-the-moment-when-the-generative",
    "title": "Is this the moment when the Generative AI bubble finally deflates?",
    "date": "2025-08-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-vibe-coding-dying-00a6cc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:41Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-vibe-coding-dying",
    "title": "Is vibe coding dying?",
    "date": "2025-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Vibe coding experiments often start out well but end badly."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-vibe-coding-dying-09de22",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:41Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-vibe-coding-dying",
    "title": "Is vibe coding dying?",
    "date": "2025-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Vibe coding customers are now realizing that the tools are unreliable and unsuited to complex real-world apps."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-vibe-coding-dying-3e2c01",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:41Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-vibe-coding-dying",
    "title": "Is vibe coding dying?",
    "date": "2025-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Code written by vibe coding tools is hard to maintain."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-vibe-coding-dying-c30b57",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:40Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-vibe-coding-dying",
    "title": "Is vibe coding dying?",
    "date": "2025-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-vibe-coding-dying-dec746",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:40Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-vibe-coding-dying",
    "title": "Is vibe coding dying?",
    "date": "2025-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Vibe coding can work for very familiar projects but is less reliable for unfamiliar ones."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-is-vibe-coding-dying-df74e0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:40Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-vibe-coding-dying",
    "title": "Is vibe coding dying?",
    "date": "2025-10-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Vibe coding usage has been declining for months after an initial steep rise."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-it-remains-very-difficult-to-find-16ece3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/it-remains-very-difficult-to-find",
    "title": "It remains “very difficult [to find] actual, materially measurable financial impacts” from spending on AI, per new study",
    "date": "2026-10-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Documentable ROI from AI remains minimal relative to the trillions of dollars invested in it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-it-remains-very-difficult-to-find-8cedde-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:05Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 measures something else (period 2026-10-13..2026-10-13 is not 2026-10-13..2026-10-14); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (period 2026-10-13..2026-10-13 is not 2026-10-13..2026-10-14); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/it-remains-very-difficult-to-find",
    "title": "It remains “very difficult [to find] actual, materially measurable financial impacts” from spending on AI, per new study",
    "date": "2026-10-14"
   },
   "proposition": "CoreWeave bonds have reached 15%, which suggests that credit markets have had enough."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-it-remains-very-difficult-to-find-df0989",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/it-remains-very-difficult-to-find",
    "title": "It remains “very difficult [to find] actual, materially measurable financial impacts” from spending on AI, per new study",
    "date": "2026-10-14"
   },
   "proposition": "So far there is zero evidence that ChatGPT/generative AI has 10x'd employee productivity or radically boosted national GDPs at scale."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-italian-ban-on-chatgpt-5fc817",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/italian-ban-on-chatgpt",
    "title": "Italian ban on ChatGPT",
    "date": "2023-03-31"
   },
   "proposition": "Italy's privacy regulator banned ChatGPT until OpenAI complies with GDPR, following data leaks and mass collection of consumer data, including from minors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-jumpstarting-ai-governance-58f50b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/jumpstarting-ai-governance",
    "title": "Jumpstarting AI Governance",
    "date": "2023-07-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-kara-swisher-sam-altman-and-the-openai-ce3379",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:06Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/kara-swisher-sam-altman-and-the-openai",
    "title": "Kara Swisher, Sam Altman, and the OpenAI Board",
    "date": "2024-05-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Altman lied by omission in Senate testimony by saying he had no equity in OpenAI while holding indirect stakes through YCombinator and owning the OpenAI Startup investment firm."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-kara-swisher-sam-altman-and-the-openai-de18e0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:38:06Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/kara-swisher-sam-altman-and-the-openai",
    "title": "Kara Swisher, Sam Altman, and the OpenAI Board",
    "date": "2024-05-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-large-language-models-like-chatgpt-00eb05",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:09:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/large-language-models-like-chatgpt",
    "title": "Large Language Models like ChatGPT say The Darnedest Things",
    "date": "2023-01-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-large-language-models-like-chatgpt-49ee95",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:39:44Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/large-language-models-like-chatgpt",
    "title": "Large Language Models like ChatGPT say The Darnedest Things",
    "date": "2023-01-09"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT's bias guardrails are imperfect, both too strict and too loose, and can be circumvented."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-large-language-models-like-chatgpt-cbb2db",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/large-language-models-like-chatgpt",
    "title": "Large Language Models like ChatGPT say The Darnedest Things",
    "date": "2023-01-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-learning-language-is-harder-than-325d22",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/learning-language-is-harder-than",
    "title": "Learning Language is Harder Than You Think",
    "date": "2022-07-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-amplify-existing-security-risks-9d3c4e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-amplify-existing-security-risks",
    "title": "“LLMs amplify existing security risks and introduce new ones”",
    "date": "2025-01-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-amplify-existing-security-risks-a21771",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-amplify-existing-security-risks",
    "title": "“LLMs amplify existing security risks and introduce new ones”",
    "date": "2025-01-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Easily jailbroken AI agents that mimic but cannot evaluate the consequences of their actions will cause massive harm."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-amplify-existing-security-risks-a21771-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-amplify-existing-security-risks",
    "title": "“LLMs amplify existing security risks and introduce new ones”",
    "date": "2025-01-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Current AI agents are easily jailbroken, excel at mimicry, and lack the capacity to evaluate the consequences of their actions."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never-031167",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:54:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The evidence search found no source on reasoning about inflation or changing prices..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never",
    "title": "LLMs are not like you and me—and never will be.",
    "date": "2025-08-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never-356cd4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:41:36Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never",
    "title": "LLMs are not like you and me—and never will be.",
    "date": "2025-08-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never-5f0c70",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:41:36Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never",
    "title": "LLMs are not like you and me—and never will be.",
    "date": "2025-08-12"
   },
   "proposition": "An AI system that cannot induce a robust model of chess rules will not induce what it needs to know about time, finance, and the changing world from statistical analysis of big data."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never-60473d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:09:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never",
    "title": "LLMs are not like you and me—and never will be.",
    "date": "2025-08-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never-81cbbd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never",
    "title": "LLMs are not like you and me—and never will be.",
    "date": "2025-08-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never-8d5e2c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:41:36Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never",
    "title": "LLMs are not like you and me—and never will be.",
    "date": "2025-08-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never-a05902",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never",
    "title": "LLMs are not like you and me—and never will be.",
    "date": "2025-08-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never-d11e59",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:55:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic not_applicable/not_applicable/not_adjudicable, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never",
    "title": "LLMs are not like you and me—and never will be.",
    "date": "2025-08-12"
   },
   "proposition": "Any system that could properly leverage widely available data into a proper world model could fact-check itself and would not make this error (showing two presidents in office at once), whereas LLMs leave everything to statistical chance."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never-e8167d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:55:09Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-are-not-like-you-and-meand-never",
    "title": "LLMs are not like you and me—and never will be.",
    "date": "2025-08-12"
   },
   "proposition": "Autocomplete, which LLMs essentially are, works well for some purposes but is not good enough for world model induction."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-arent-very-bright-why-are-so-ba092d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:54:49Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Only two sources were consulted, as context..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-arent-very-bright-why-are-so",
    "title": "LLMs aren’t very bright. Why are so many people fooled?",
    "date": "2024-04-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare-216e97",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare",
    "title": "LLMs + Coding Agents = Security Nightmare",
    "date": "2025-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": "Two new technologies, LLMs and coding agents, are radically increasing the attack surface, meaning the space for potential vulnerabilities."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare-2e4856",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:46:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare",
    "title": "LLMs + Coding Agents = Security Nightmare",
    "date": "2025-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare-6e07c6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare",
    "title": "LLMs + Coding Agents = Security Nightmare",
    "date": "2025-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare-713905",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:46:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare",
    "title": "LLMs + Coding Agents = Security Nightmare",
    "date": "2025-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare-7e89a4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:46:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare",
    "title": "LLMs + Coding Agents = Security Nightmare",
    "date": "2025-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare-8110e5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare",
    "title": "LLMs + Coding Agents = Security Nightmare",
    "date": "2025-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare-bdb56f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:55:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e6 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-coding-agents-security-nightmare",
    "title": "LLMs + Coding Agents = Security Nightmare",
    "date": "2025-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": "Many developers will find it hard to resist giving AI tools far more access and permissions than they should, drawn by hopes of convenience and productivity."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and-074870",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and",
    "title": "LLMs: Dishonest, unpredictable and potentially dangerous.",
    "date": "2025-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and-25eff9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:55:24Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and",
    "title": "LLMs: Dishonest, unpredictable and potentially dangerous.",
    "date": "2025-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Anthropic's new test shows that under the right circumstances an LLM might be prepared to kill a human."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and-5fbdfc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and",
    "title": "LLMs: Dishonest, unpredictable and potentially dangerous.",
    "date": "2025-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and-9227c4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:46:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and",
    "title": "LLMs: Dishonest, unpredictable and potentially dangerous.",
    "date": "2025-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and-b1513a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:55:24Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025, which is not inside the period described (… to 2025-06-22); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2025, which is not inside the period described (… to 2025-06-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and",
    "title": "LLMs: Dishonest, unpredictable and potentially dangerous.",
    "date": "2025-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "In Amanda Guinzburg's conversation, ChatGPT repeatedly produced falsehoods, pretending to know much more about her than it did."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and-c337d3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:54:53Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and",
    "title": "LLMs: Dishonest, unpredictable and potentially dangerous.",
    "date": "2025-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "No LLM actually wants to kill people, but an LLM can still issue instructions that, if carried out, could be deadly."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-dont-do-formal-reasoning-and-27cfda",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:40:09Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2024-09, which is not inside the period described (2024-09-12 to 2024-10-11); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-dont-do-formal-reasoning-and",
    "title": "LLMs don’t do formal reasoning - and that is a HUGE problem",
    "date": "2024-10-11"
   },
   "proposition": "o1's accuracy also drops as multiplication problems get larger."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-dont-do-formal-reasoning-and-6ca54e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-dont-do-formal-reasoning-and",
    "title": "LLMs don’t do formal reasoning - and that is a HUGE problem",
    "date": "2024-10-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-dont-do-formal-reasoning-and-bf668b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-dont-do-formal-reasoning-and",
    "title": "LLMs don’t do formal reasoning - and that is a HUGE problem",
    "date": "2024-10-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-llms-dont-do-formal-reasoning-and-d37e55",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-dont-do-formal-reasoning-and",
    "title": "LLMs don’t do formal reasoning - and that is a HUGE problem",
    "date": "2024-10-11"
   },
   "proposition": "LLM performance often falls apart as problems are made bigger, which is another manifestation of their lack of sufficiently abstract, formal reasoning."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-marcus-goes-gaga-over-gates-clip-298f30-3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/marcus-goes-gaga-over-gates-clip",
    "title": "Marcus goes gaga over Gates clip",
    "date": "2024-06-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-marcus-goes-gaga-over-gates-clip-4bb9b2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:54:24Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/marcus-goes-gaga-over-gates-clip",
    "title": "Marcus goes gaga over Gates clip",
    "date": "2024-06-30"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus does not think metacognition can work without bringing explicit symbols back into the mix, and does not see how high-level metacognition could be done over uninterpretable black boxes."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-marcus-goes-gaga-over-gates-clip-d12b72",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/marcus-goes-gaga-over-gates-clip",
    "title": "Marcus goes gaga over Gates clip",
    "date": "2024-06-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-math-is-hard-if-you-are-an-llm-and-62160b-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:55:53Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-19); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/math-is-hard-if-you-are-an-llm-and",
    "title": "“Math is hard” — if you are an LLM – and why that matters",
    "date": "2023-10-19"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs on their own remain stuck, unable to reliably learn abstractions like multiplication."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-math-is-hard-if-you-are-an-llm-and-f68a3d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:55:53Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-19); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/math-is-hard-if-you-are-an-llm-and",
    "title": "“Math is hard” — if you are an LLM – and why that matters",
    "date": "2023-10-19"
   },
   "proposition": "The weakness of neural networks in learning abstract, similarity-independent rules, identified in the early 1990s, still persists in current deep learning."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-maybe-section-230-doesnt-shield-ai-03faf7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:57:57Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/maybe-section-230-doesnt-shield-ai",
    "title": "Maybe Section 230 doesn’t shield AI companies from liability, after all",
    "date": "2026-06-11"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as Marcus knows, Altman did nothing with Senator Durbin to find an alternative to Section 230 after promising to collaborate."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-maybe-section-230-doesnt-shield-ai-1cfe31",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:57:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/maybe-section-230-doesnt-shield-ai",
    "title": "Maybe Section 230 doesn’t shield AI companies from liability, after all",
    "date": "2026-06-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-maybe-section-230-doesnt-shield-ai-a8b95d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/maybe-section-230-doesnt-shield-ai",
    "title": "Maybe Section 230 doesn’t shield AI companies from liability, after all",
    "date": "2026-06-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-maybe-section-230-doesnt-shield-ai-dab281",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:10:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/maybe-section-230-doesnt-shield-ai",
    "title": "Maybe Section 230 doesn’t shield AI companies from liability, after all",
    "date": "2026-06-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-mayday-the-white-house-is-attempting-12582c-3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:57:28Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/mayday-the-white-house-is-attempting",
    "title": "Mayday: The White House is attempting to circumvent Congress and crush the rights of individual states to regulate AI.",
    "date": "2025-11-19"
   },
   "proposition": "In a world in which there is no coherent federal response to AI, children in particular are left incredibly vulnerable to harmful AI content (\"garbage like this\")."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-mayday-the-white-house-is-attempting-35fd01",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:10:27Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/mayday-the-white-house-is-attempting",
    "title": "Mayday: The White House is attempting to circumvent Congress and crush the rights of individual states to regulate AI.",
    "date": "2025-11-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-mayday-the-white-house-is-attempting-816116-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:57:28Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/mayday-the-white-house-is-attempting",
    "title": "Mayday: The White House is attempting to circumvent Congress and crush the rights of individual states to regulate AI.",
    "date": "2025-11-19"
   },
   "proposition": "As of November 2025 Congress has not put any serious federal AI standards forward to a vote."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-mayday-the-white-house-is-attempting-e7bef3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:57:28Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai review doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/mayday-the-white-house-is-attempting",
    "title": "Mayday: The White House is attempting to circumvent Congress and crush the rights of individual states to regulate AI.",
    "date": "2025-11-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-meta-pirated-at-least-101-of-my-books-450123",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/meta-pirated-at-least-101-of-my-books",
    "title": "Meta pirated at least 101 of my books and articles, and tens of millions of others",
    "date": "2025-03-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-meta-pirated-at-least-101-of-my-books-81fa5c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:57:09Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/meta-pirated-at-least-101-of-my-books",
    "title": "Meta pirated at least 101 of my books and articles, and tens of millions of others",
    "date": "2025-03-20"
   },
   "proposition": "It appears Meta knew it was using pirated material and chose to proceed anyway."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-meta-pirated-at-least-101-of-my-books-c131ff",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:57:09Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/meta-pirated-at-least-101-of-my-books",
    "title": "Meta pirated at least 101 of my books and articles, and tens of millions of others",
    "date": "2025-03-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Meta used the Libgen database, apparently knowing it contained pirated material, to train Llama 3."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-meta-pirated-at-least-101-of-my-books-f5e7d6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:55:54Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/meta-pirated-at-least-101-of-my-books",
    "title": "Meta pirated at least 101 of my books and articles, and tens of millions of others",
    "date": "2025-03-20"
   },
   "proposition": "It appears Mark Zuckerberg personally approved Meta's use of pirated books and articles for AI training."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-metas-chief-ai-officer-is-lying-about-3c6550",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:10:56Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: This corroborates the express treatment of general-purpose AI in the Council’s 29 November 2021 compromise [e1, e2]. | e1 explanation: \"Section II.6 expressly identifies new general-purpose AI provisions, including Article 52a, demonstrating treatment of the subject before the French intervention.\".",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/metas-chief-ai-officer-is-lying-about",
    "title": "Meta’s Chief AI Officer is lying about the EU AI Act",
    "date": "2023-12-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-misplaced-panic-over-ai-progress-aadf56-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:46:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/misplaced-panic-over-ai-progress",
    "title": "Misplaced panic over AI progress",
    "date": "2026-05-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-most-people-dont-think-genai-has-ab0049",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:57:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/most-people-dont-think-genai-has",
    "title": "Most people don’t think GenAI has improved their productivity",
    "date": "2024-07-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Outside coders and tech fans, many workers do not view ChatGPT favourably as a work tool."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-muddles-about-models-0d2dd7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/muddles-about-models",
    "title": "Muddles about Models",
    "date": "2023-10-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-muddles-about-models-1d532e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/muddles-about-models",
    "title": "Muddles about Models",
    "date": "2023-10-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-muddles-about-models-44de94",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/muddles-about-models",
    "title": "Muddles about Models",
    "date": "2023-10-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-muddles-about-models-45a553",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:57:13Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a causal claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/muddles-about-models",
    "title": "Muddles about Models",
    "date": "2023-10-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Any military application one might imagine of the correlational approach would fail ('be toast') precisely because that approach does not yield flexible models that can reliably support inferences on novel questions."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-muddles-about-models-e9c668",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/muddles-about-models",
    "title": "Muddles about Models",
    "date": "2023-10-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-musk-grok-and-rigorous-adherence-1d47c3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/musk-grok-and-rigorous-adherence",
    "title": "Musk, Grok, and “rigorous adherence to truth“",
    "date": "2025-03-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-my-conversation-with-chinas-victor-652d2e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/my-conversation-with-chinas-victor",
    "title": "𝗔𝗜 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗲! My conversation with China’s Victor Gao plus a hot take on new essay by Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-my-conversation-with-chinas-victor-74dccc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:10:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/my-conversation-with-chinas-victor",
    "title": "𝗔𝗜 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗲! My conversation with China’s Victor Gao plus a hot take on new essay by Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-my-conversation-with-chinas-victor-87e7c5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/my-conversation-with-chinas-victor",
    "title": "𝗔𝗜 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗲! My conversation with China’s Victor Gao plus a hot take on new essay by Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-my-conversation-with-chinas-victor-a475df",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:58:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/my-conversation-with-chinas-victor",
    "title": "𝗔𝗜 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗲! My conversation with China’s Victor Gao plus a hot take on new essay by Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": "China largely caught up in AI despite export controls, and the controls may have pushed it toward important efficiency gains."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-my-conversation-with-chinas-victor-dba2bb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:58:11Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/my-conversation-with-chinas-victor",
    "title": "𝗔𝗜 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗲! My conversation with China’s Victor Gao plus a hot take on new essay by Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": "It is not known that building AI smarter than almost all humans requires millions of chips and tens of billions of dollars."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-my-conversation-with-chinas-victor-de2c29",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:58:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/my-conversation-with-chinas-victor",
    "title": "𝗔𝗜 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗲! My conversation with China’s Victor Gao plus a hot take on new essay by Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": "US chip export controls on China have so far not been very successful and may have had paradoxical effects; the controls Amodei urges would help Anthropic."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-new-adventures-in-ai-hype-our-language-52d256",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:57:49Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/new-adventures-in-ai-hype-our-language",
    "title": "New adventures in AI hype: “Our language models are so ‘conscious’ we need to give them rights”",
    "date": "2025-04-25"
   },
   "proposition": "Language models like LaMDA do not connect their representations to the world; they are just autocomplete that predicts which words fit a context."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-new-ways-to-corrupt-llms-026817",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/new-ways-to-corrupt-llms",
    "title": "“New Ways to Corrupt LLMs”",
    "date": "2025-12-14"
   },
   "proposition": "If you extract weird correlations from one machine, you can feed them into another and bend it to your will."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-anthropic-did-not-call-for-a-pause-8b926e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-anthropic-did-not-call-for-a-pause",
    "title": "No, Anthropic did not call for a pause on AI development",
    "date": "2026-06-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-dario-amodei-we-will-not-be-curing-3015c8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:57:48Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-dario-amodei-we-will-not-be-curing",
    "title": "No, Dario Amodei, we will not be curing cancer and “most human disease” in five to ten years",
    "date": "2026-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as Marcus knows, no AI company has presented a real plan for curing even one disease in 5-10 years."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-dario-amodei-we-will-not-be-curing-9c5a21",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-dario-amodei-we-will-not-be-curing",
    "title": "No, Dario Amodei, we will not be curing cancer and “most human disease” in five to ten years",
    "date": "2026-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-dario-amodei-we-will-not-be-curing-aacab9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-dario-amodei-we-will-not-be-curing",
    "title": "No, Dario Amodei, we will not be curing cancer and “most human disease” in five to ten years",
    "date": "2026-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-dario-amodei-we-will-not-be-curing-ebd3ce",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-dario-amodei-we-will-not-be-curing",
    "title": "No, Dario Amodei, we will not be curing cancer and “most human disease” in five to ten years",
    "date": "2026-08-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-multimodal-chatgpt-is-not-going-63ace3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:59:38Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-multimodal-chatgpt-is-not-going",
    "title": "No, multimodal ChatGPT is not going to “trivially” solve Generative AI's copyright problems",
    "date": "2024-01-24"
   },
   "proposition": "It has not been shown that ChatGPT or reverse image search can reliably identify sources of generated images, especially for recent and less-known materials."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-multimodal-chatgpt-is-not-going-8bc786",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:59:38Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review abstained.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-multimodal-chatgpt-is-not-going",
    "title": "No, multimodal ChatGPT is not going to “trivially” solve Generative AI's copyright problems",
    "date": "2024-01-24"
   },
   "proposition": "Identifying sources of generated images is not solved, and building a classifier to detect and suppress images containing copyrighted characters is not trivial."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-multimodal-chatgpt-is-not-going-c7862e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:58:49Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. \"likely\" is hedged or probabilistic; one outcome does not score it; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-multimodal-chatgpt-is-not-going",
    "title": "No, multimodal ChatGPT is not going to “trivially” solve Generative AI's copyright problems",
    "date": "2024-01-24"
   },
   "proposition": "2024 is on track to be the year of generative AI litigation."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-multimodal-chatgpt-is-not-going-e04f38",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:58:49Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-multimodal-chatgpt-is-not-going",
    "title": "No, multimodal ChatGPT is not going to “trivially” solve Generative AI's copyright problems",
    "date": "2024-01-24"
   },
   "proposition": "Some popular GenAI systems have trained on copyrighted images."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-need-to-panic-about-anthropics-cece9a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:11:23Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-need-to-panic-about-anthropics",
    "title": "No need to panic about Anthropic’s new blog, and some more good news",
    "date": "2026-06-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-need-to-panic-about-anthropics-d9b71e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:11:23Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: The report retains human responsibility for choosing research goals..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-need-to-panic-about-anthropics",
    "title": "No need to panic about Anthropic’s new blog, and some more good news",
    "date": "2026-06-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-one-person-should-be-trusted-here-49c08d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-one-person-should-be-trusted-here",
    "title": "“No one person should be trusted here.”",
    "date": "2023-11-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-rag-is-probably-not-going-to-rescue-f16f8e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-rag-is-probably-not-going-to-rescue",
    "title": "No, RAG is probably not going to rescue the current situation",
    "date": "2024-02-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-sora-has-not-learned-physics-404d76",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-sora-has-not-learned-physics",
    "title": "No, Sora has not “learned physics”",
    "date": "2024-03-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-virginia-agi-is-not-imminent-09b64e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-virginia-agi-is-not-imminent",
    "title": "No, Virginia, AGI is not imminent",
    "date": "2023-08-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-virginia-agi-is-not-imminent-6f7105",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:00:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-virginia-agi-is-not-imminent",
    "title": "No, Virginia, AGI is not imminent",
    "date": "2023-08-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-no-virginia-agi-is-not-imminent-aa764b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:12:13Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-virginia-agi-is-not-imminent",
    "title": "No, Virginia, AGI is not imminent",
    "date": "2023-08-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-noam-chomsky-and-gpt-3-75df3d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:12:00Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: e2 studies GPT-2 and smaller models, not GPT-3..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/noam-chomsky-and-gpt-3",
    "title": "Noam Chomsky and GPT-3",
    "date": "2022-05-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-noam-chomsky-and-gpt-3-faccda",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:01:38Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/noam-chomsky-and-gpt-3",
    "title": "Noam Chomsky and GPT-3",
    "date": "2022-05-21"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-3's prediction is basically regurgitation of training patterns and does not mean it knows what the words it uses mean."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall-08b51c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:59:58Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall",
    "title": "Nobel Prizes and The AI Hype Hall of Fame",
    "date": "2025-03-09"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as Marcus knows, in the nine years since Hinton's 2016 prediction, AI has not replaced a single radiologist."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall-0ac7a1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:12:03Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the conclusive event's date differs from its evidence",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall",
    "title": "Nobel Prizes and The AI Hype Hall of Fame",
    "date": "2025-03-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Human scientists will get a lot of leverage from AI, as they did from databases and calculators."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall-137618",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T07:59:58Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall",
    "title": "Nobel Prizes and The AI Hype Hall of Fame",
    "date": "2025-03-09"
   },
   "proposition": "It is highly unlikely that AI systems will conceive of and carry out Nobel-caliber work on their own in the next few years."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall-8558de",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall",
    "title": "Nobel Prizes and The AI Hype Hall of Fame",
    "date": "2025-03-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall-9dfc90",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall",
    "title": "Nobel Prizes and The AI Hype Hall of Fame",
    "date": "2025-03-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall-c3ca51",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:00:09Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall",
    "title": "Nobel Prizes and The AI Hype Hall of Fame",
    "date": "2025-03-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus thinks DOGE and its allies will use predictions of AI surpassing Nobel laureates to justify cuts to scientific institutions."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall-c80802",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:00:09Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the horizon on 2026-10-28 is not_due, not open_horizon",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/nobel-prizes-and-the-ai-hype-hall",
    "title": "Nobel Prizes and The AI Hype Hall of Fame",
    "date": "2025-03-09"
   },
   "proposition": "AI built in 2026 or 2027 will be valuable to future Nobel laureates."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-nonsense-on-stilts-d3b80d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/nonsense-on-stilts",
    "title": "Nonsense on Stilts",
    "date": "2022-06-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-nvidia-could-soon-take-a-serious-90b3b7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/nvidia-could-soon-take-a-serious",
    "title": "“Nvidia could soon take a serious hit, too”",
    "date": "2025-01-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-o3-agi-the-art-of-the-demo-and-what-11221b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/o3-agi-the-art-of-the-demo-and-what",
    "title": "o3, AGI, the art of the demo, and what you can expect in 2025",
    "date": "2024-12-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-o3-agi-the-art-of-the-demo-and-what-612921",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:01:21Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. \"likely\" is hedged or probabilistic; one outcome does not score it; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/o3-agi-the-art-of-the-demo-and-what",
    "title": "o3, AGI, the art of the demo, and what you can expect in 2025",
    "date": "2024-12-21"
   },
   "proposition": "At best, o3 will likely prove reliable for some kinds of problems but not others."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-o3-agi-the-art-of-the-demo-and-what-6ddd11",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:01:21Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2024-12, which is not inside the period described (… to 2024-12-20); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/o3-agi-the-art-of-the-demo-and-what",
    "title": "o3, AGI, the art of the demo, and what you can expect in 2025",
    "date": "2024-12-21"
   },
   "proposition": "Neural networks tend to generalize better within their training distribution than outside it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-o3-agi-the-art-of-the-demo-and-what-cdebf1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:00:26Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e9 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/o3-agi-the-art-of-the-demo-and-what",
    "title": "o3, AGI, the art of the demo, and what you can expect in 2025",
    "date": "2024-12-21"
   },
   "proposition": "In 2025, almost nobody claiming AGI has been reached will provide their definition of AGI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-one-genai-image-ten-errors-c5349e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:00:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/one-genai-image-ten-errors",
    "title": "One GenAI image; Ten Errors",
    "date": "2024-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-oops-how-google-bombed-while-doing-6726ff",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:02:30Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e4 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/oops-how-google-bombed-while-doing",
    "title": "Oops! How Google bombed, while doing pretty much exactly the same thing as Microsoft did, with similar results",
    "date": "2023-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Hallucinations are inherent to neural network language models, a byproduct of how they compress inputs and lose track of factual relations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-oops-how-google-bombed-while-doing-bb9161",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:02:30Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/oops-how-google-bombed-while-doing",
    "title": "Oops! How Google bombed, while doing pretty much exactly the same thing as Microsoft did, with similar results",
    "date": "2023-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Despite seven years and roughly $100 billion of investment since 2016, driverless cars' errors have not gone away."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-oops-how-google-bombed-while-doing-e303fd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:49:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/oops-how-google-bombed-while-doing",
    "title": "Oops! How Google bombed, while doing pretty much exactly the same thing as Microsoft did, with similar results",
    "date": "2023-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-open-letter-responding-to-yann-lecun-81296b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:02:02Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-06-04); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/open-letter-responding-to-yann-lecun",
    "title": "Open letter responding to Yann LeCun",
    "date": "2024-06-04"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs do not provide commonsense reasoning, physical reasoning or world models for free."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-open-letter-responding-to-yann-lecun-b3f296",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:49:26Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e2 excerpt \"outperforms all baselines\" (truncated from \"outperforms all baselines on data efficiency\").",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/open-letter-responding-to-yann-lecun",
    "title": "Open letter responding to Yann LeCun",
    "date": "2024-06-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-open-source-is-not-the-same-as-open-2451f8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/open-source-is-not-the-same-as-open",
    "title": "Open-source is NOT the same as open-weight",
    "date": "2026-08-10"
   },
   "proposition": "Zuckerberg released a model that is not open-source, hoping people wouldn't notice the difference between open-weight and open-source, and the New York Times didn't notice it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openai-cries-foul-82b9ec",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openai-cries-foul",
    "title": "OpenAI Cries Foul",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-663d82",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:49:33Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e4 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openai-in-deep-trouble",
    "title": "OpenAI, in deep trouble",
    "date": "2025-03-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Early reviews of GPT-4.5 have been very negative."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-735095",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openai-in-deep-trouble",
    "title": "OpenAI, in deep trouble",
    "date": "2025-03-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-a9e42a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:49:33Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e2 explanation: \"The reviewers identified practical writing strengths, cautioning against treating coding results as the whole product.\".",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openai-in-deep-trouble",
    "title": "OpenAI, in deep trouble",
    "date": "2025-03-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance-43029f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:02:36Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance",
    "title": "OpenAI is becoming a surveillance company",
    "date": "2026-08-20"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI used evasive legal language to avoid ruling out surveillance of US citizens for the US government."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance-4b588f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:49:11Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: excerpt_matches, conditions_shown, rationale_supported_by_evidence.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance",
    "title": "OpenAI is becoming a surveillance company",
    "date": "2026-08-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance-94a209",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:02:36Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance",
    "title": "OpenAI is becoming a surveillance company",
    "date": "2026-08-20"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI is reportedly building devices for 24x7 monitoring, and Marcus asserts, in his own voice and with 'no doubt', that these devices upload everything users say to the cloud for AI analysis."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openai-on-a-path-to-becoming-the-cdfc48",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:48:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openai-on-a-path-to-becoming-the",
    "title": "OpenAI: On a Path to Becoming The World’s Most Frightening Surveillance Company?",
    "date": "2024-08-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-8bc3e0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold",
    "title": "OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra",
    "date": "2026-08-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-90ceaa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold",
    "title": "OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra",
    "date": "2026-08-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-code-red-24da7e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:49:39Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: OpenAI did not fall..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-code-red",
    "title": "OpenAI’s “Code Red”",
    "date": "2025-12-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-code-red-339082",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:02:58Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-code-red",
    "title": "OpenAI’s “Code Red”",
    "date": "2025-12-03"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI has lost its lead and massively overextended itself."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-code-red-6ad305",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:02:58Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-code-red",
    "title": "OpenAI’s “Code Red”",
    "date": "2025-12-03"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI is troubled, with modest revenue far short of its trillion-dollar commitments, as shown by Altman's non-answer."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-code-red-97a216",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:03:34Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 measures something else (metric net income (loss), implied from Microsoft's equity-method share is not net income (loss)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (metric net income (loss), projected is not net income (loss)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e4 measures something else (metric net loss excluding one-time charges is not net income (loss)); it can only be context unless it is derived with",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-code-red",
    "title": "OpenAI’s “Code Red”",
    "date": "2025-12-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Because OpenAI is losing money and can't stand on its own for long, it is at the mercy of investors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-code-red-c3bc65",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:03:34Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-code-red",
    "title": "OpenAI’s “Code Red”",
    "date": "2025-12-03"
   },
   "proposition": "If things continue to deteriorate, OpenAI's next funding round will be much harder to raise than the last."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-code-red-e0029e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:03:34Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-code-red",
    "title": "OpenAI’s “Code Red”",
    "date": "2025-12-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Pension funds like CalPERS invested in OpenAI stand to take sizable losses if OpenAI cannot maintain its trajectory."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-3bd254",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt",
    "title": "OpenAI’s dirty December o3 demo doesn’t readily replicate",
    "date": "2025-04-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-4a8019",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:49:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: The report documents timeouts and only 37 returned answers across 100 ARC-AGI-1 tasks for o3-high..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt",
    "title": "OpenAI’s dirty December o3 demo doesn’t readily replicate",
    "date": "2025-04-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-4d827e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt",
    "title": "OpenAI’s dirty December o3 demo doesn’t readily replicate",
    "date": "2025-04-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-5de705",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:03:29Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt",
    "title": "OpenAI’s dirty December o3 demo doesn’t readily replicate",
    "date": "2025-04-23"
   },
   "proposition": "The best stable ARC result the ARC team could get from the latest batch of publicly-testable OpenAI models was 56%, with a different model called o3-medium; this is still impressive and useful but a long way from the 75% OpenAI advertised."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-aa698d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:03:29Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt",
    "title": "OpenAI’s dirty December o3 demo doesn’t readily replicate",
    "date": "2025-04-23"
   },
   "proposition": "o3 sometimes apparently cheats by reporting answers found online rather than computing them."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-ae5158",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:03:29Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt",
    "title": "OpenAI’s dirty December o3 demo doesn’t readily replicate",
    "date": "2025-04-23"
   },
   "proposition": "None of OpenAI's released o3-named models can reliably do what was shown in the December livestream."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-10465f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:04:15Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface",
    "title": "OpenAI’s disconcerting hack of HuggingFace",
    "date": "2026-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": "What OpenAI reported is kind of an upper bound or proof of concept that stacked the deck to show how bad things could be."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-53668a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:04:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface",
    "title": "OpenAI’s disconcerting hack of HuggingFace",
    "date": "2026-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": "The current incident was not an attempt in which the system built a goal for itself or developed a motive; the system was following instructions but was not setting high-level goals."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-e05b65",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:04:15Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface",
    "title": "OpenAI’s disconcerting hack of HuggingFace",
    "date": "2026-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Open-weight systems from China helped HuggingFace defensively in mitigating the attack, while attackers could use similar open-weight models and strip out some of the production-classifier guardrails designed to minimize such incidents."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-fc03cb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:49:55Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: On 2026-04-07, The Register reported Anthropic's statement that Mythos Preview could identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system and browser when directed to (e3)..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface",
    "title": "OpenAI’s disconcerting hack of HuggingFace",
    "date": "2026-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-future-foretold-8c2779",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:50:20Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: Bloomberg linked the discrepancy with earlier estimates to different treatment of cloud-provider sales; that revision does not establish a revenue stall [e2]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-future-foretold",
    "title": "OpenAI’s future, foretold?",
    "date": "2025-09-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-future-foretold-99155a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-future-foretold",
    "title": "OpenAI’s future, foretold?",
    "date": "2025-09-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-future-foretold-9afaee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:04:24Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-future-foretold",
    "title": "OpenAI’s future, foretold?",
    "date": "2025-09-07"
   },
   "proposition": "New Census Bureau data suggests enterprise AI adoption is not continuing to rise as OpenAI's projections assume."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-future-foretold-dbfb57",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:50:20Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: conditions_shown, citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-future-foretold",
    "title": "OpenAI’s future, foretold?",
    "date": "2025-09-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-3afee6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:03:56Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Got 9.9 Problems, and Twitch Ain’t One",
    "date": "2024-01-27"
   },
   "proposition": "There is no immediate fix for LLM hallucinations, and one may not arrive soon."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-9af2fc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Got 9.9 Problems, and Twitch Ain’t One",
    "date": "2024-01-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Many of the major companies that looked into ChatGPT in 2023 have been held back to a greater or lesser degree by its hallucination errors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-de64ed",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:50:14Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: OpenAI's answer explicitly includes licensed information among its training sources and acknowledges its AP partnership and further negotiations, contradicting the claimed omission of licensing..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Got 9.9 Problems, and Twitch Ain’t One",
    "date": "2024-01-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-e59077",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:03:56Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e7 is dated 2024-01, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2024-01-27); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Got 9.9 Problems, and Twitch Ain’t One",
    "date": "2024-01-27"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT and related systems have a truthiness problem: some of what they say is true and some is not, and it is very difficult for the end user to anticipate which will be true."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-ec185a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:02:27Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Got 9.9 Problems, and Twitch Ain’t One",
    "date": "2024-01-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Lawsuit and licensing payouts will cut heavily into OpenAI's potential future profits."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-2deb22",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:04:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast",
    "title": "OpenAI’s lead is dwindling fast",
    "date": "2026-06-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Microsoft, long OpenAI's biggest backer, has been increasingly backing away from OpenAI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-2f7af6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:04:52Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai review doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast",
    "title": "OpenAI’s lead is dwindling fast",
    "date": "2026-06-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-786cce",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:04:52Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast",
    "title": "OpenAI’s lead is dwindling fast",
    "date": "2026-06-16"
   },
   "proposition": "The lack of a moat, with everybody building the same thing, as Marcus predicted in January 2024, has been catching up to OpenAI ever since, and the market share numbers show it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-9ed742",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:03:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e3 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast",
    "title": "OpenAI’s lead is dwindling fast",
    "date": "2026-06-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Because everybody is building the same thing, LLM companies can have no moat."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-d52790",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast",
    "title": "OpenAI’s lead is dwindling fast",
    "date": "2026-06-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-519ac2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-lies-and-half-truths",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Lies and Half-Truths",
    "date": "2024-03-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-97fd17",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:04:21Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-lies-and-half-truths",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Lies and Half-Truths",
    "date": "2024-03-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-o3-and-tyler-cowens-misguided-0589ab",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-o3-and-tyler-cowens-misguided",
    "title": "OpenAI’s o3 and Tyler Cowen’s Misguided AGI Fantasy",
    "date": "2025-04-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-o3-and-tyler-cowens-misguided-31bb96",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-o3-and-tyler-cowens-misguided",
    "title": "OpenAI’s o3 and Tyler Cowen’s Misguided AGI Fantasy",
    "date": "2025-04-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-own-goal-11234a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:05:11Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-own-goal",
    "title": "OpenAI’s “Own Goal”",
    "date": "2024-03-06"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI has almost entirely abandoned open source and is among the least open AI companies."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-own-goal-28e78a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-own-goal",
    "title": "OpenAI’s “Own Goal”",
    "date": "2024-03-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-own-goal-4cdfa1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-own-goal",
    "title": "OpenAI’s “Own Goal”",
    "date": "2024-03-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-own-goal-644a39",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:03:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-own-goal",
    "title": "OpenAI’s “Own Goal”",
    "date": "2024-03-06"
   },
   "proposition": "The released email shows OpenAI knew for years it did not intend to be as open as its name and statements suggested."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-slow-motion-train-wreck-ca18c7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-slow-motion-train-wreck",
    "title": "OpenAI’s slow-motion train wreck",
    "date": "2024-09-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-waterloo-13ac30",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-waterloo",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Waterloo? [with corrections]",
    "date": "2025-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-waterloo-3908e7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:05:50Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-waterloo",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Waterloo? [with corrections]",
    "date": "2025-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Science is self-correcting, and new approaches will rise again from the ashes."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-waterloo-8dacbd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-waterloo",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Waterloo? [with corrections]",
    "date": "2025-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-waterloo-9c03a7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:05:50Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-waterloo",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Waterloo? [with corrections]",
    "date": "2025-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Altman failed to deliver what he promised with GPT-5, and GPT-5 is in no way AGI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-waterloo-aeede7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:05:02Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the horizon on 2026-10-28 is not_due, not open_horizon; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-waterloo",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Waterloo? [with corrections]",
    "date": "2025-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": "AGI will eventually come, possibly within the next decade."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-waterloo-d3e7ef",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:05:02Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-waterloo",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Waterloo? [with corrections]",
    "date": "2025-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": "No lab has yet delivered AGI, and models like Grok-4 and Llama-4 have also underwhelmed."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-waterloo-ea67a1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:51:00Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-waterloo",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Waterloo? [with corrections]",
    "date": "2025-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openais-waterloo-fc7a90",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:04:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-waterloo",
    "title": "OpenAI’s Waterloo? [with corrections]",
    "date": "2025-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT has not, so far, ushered in a new era in science and medicine or radically increased GDP and productivity."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-2199be",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:05:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere",
    "title": "OpenClaw (a.k.a. Moltbot) is everywhere all at once, and a disaster waiting to happen",
    "date": "2026-02-01"
   },
   "proposition": "AutoGPT was super popular in certain circles for a few weeks, but it did not work remotely reliably, and people lost patience with it quickly."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-b60f63",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:05:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere",
    "title": "OpenClaw (a.k.a. Moltbot) is everywhere all at once, and a disaster waiting to happen",
    "date": "2026-02-01"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenClaw is poised to have slightly more staying power than AutoGPT, in part because more people found out about it more quickly."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-bf4799",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:05:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere",
    "title": "OpenClaw (a.k.a. Moltbot) is everywhere all at once, and a disaster waiting to happen",
    "date": "2026-02-01"
   },
   "proposition": "At their best, agent systems like OpenClaw can do basically anything a human personal assistant or intern might do."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-paris-ai-summit-train-wreck-5bb924",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:04:13Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/paris-ai-summit-train-wreck",
    "title": "Paris AI Summit Train Wreck",
    "date": "2025-02-10"
   },
   "proposition": "From what Marcus can tell from afar, the Paris AI Summit has become a train wreck that displeases almost everyone, for different and somewhat conflicting reasons."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-052511",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/peak-absurdity-part-ii",
    "title": "Peak absurdity, Part II",
    "date": "2026-04-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-29d8f0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:51:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/peak-absurdity-part-ii",
    "title": "Peak absurdity, Part II",
    "date": "2026-04-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-5b4bb1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:51:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct; overclaims: OpenAI does not have the $300 billion needed for its Oracle deal..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/peak-absurdity-part-ii",
    "title": "Peak absurdity, Part II",
    "date": "2026-04-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-9a2c00",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:51:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/peak-absurdity-part-ii",
    "title": "Peak absurdity, Part II",
    "date": "2026-04-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-f5a78c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/peak-absurdity-part-ii",
    "title": "Peak absurdity, Part II",
    "date": "2026-04-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-peak-bubble-052511",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/peak-bubble",
    "title": "Peak bubble",
    "date": "2025-09-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-peak-bubble-29d8f0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/peak-bubble",
    "title": "Peak bubble",
    "date": "2025-09-11"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI does not have anywhere near $300 billion."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-peak-bubble-5b4bb1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/peak-bubble",
    "title": "Peak bubble",
    "date": "2025-09-11"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI does not have the $300 billion committed in its Oracle cloud deal."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-peak-bubble-7c952e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/peak-bubble",
    "title": "Peak bubble",
    "date": "2025-09-11"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's own projection, which is presumably optimistic, shows it will not turn a profit until 2030."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for-2e779a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:06:52Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2026-04, which is not inside the period described (2026-01-01 to 2026-04-21); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for",
    "title": "Please don’t trust your chatbot for medical advice",
    "date": "2026-04-21"
   },
   "proposition": "Converging evidence from four studies shows chatbots, especially used by amateurs, cannot be trusted for medical advice."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for-352372",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:06:52Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for",
    "title": "Please don’t trust your chatbot for medical advice",
    "date": "2026-04-21"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs don't know what they don't know: they work decently well with the information they've got but don't know how to conduct clinical interviews, and in the hands of the lay public they can easily give bad advice because the proper questions never get asked, either by the patient or the LLM."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for-3dcde7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for",
    "title": "Please don’t trust your chatbot for medical advice",
    "date": "2026-04-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-poetry-for-our-agi-times-30115c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/poetry-for-our-agi-times",
    "title": "Poetry for Our AGI Times",
    "date": "2022-06-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-promises-are-cheap-45e99b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:07:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/promises-are-cheap",
    "title": "Promises are cheap",
    "date": "2026-02-12"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as he knows, a lot of lawyers who use LLMs are having problems with hallucinations, and documented cases of lawyers called out in Damien Charlotin's database rose from 112 less than a year ago to 914, which he calls 8x growth in less than 12 months."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-promises-are-cheap-4be39e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:07:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/promises-are-cheap",
    "title": "Promises are cheap",
    "date": "2026-02-12"
   },
   "proposition": "The number of radiologists keeps growing, and in some communities there is a shortage of radiologists."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-promises-are-cheap-4fc9e1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:07:10Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/promises-are-cheap",
    "title": "Promises are cheap",
    "date": "2026-02-12"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as he knows, LLM hallucinations are still a serious problem."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-promises-are-cheap-52a602",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:51:29Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: That points to large benchmark gains, but the figure is reported by OpenAI itself. | These point toward large gains, but they are company-reported and do not settle a subjective comparison..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/promises-are-cheap",
    "title": "Promises are cheap",
    "date": "2026-02-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-promises-are-cheap-77b3e7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:07:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/promises-are-cheap",
    "title": "Promises are cheap",
    "date": "2026-02-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-race-statistics-and-the-persistent-2ca679",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:51:30Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/race-statistics-and-the-persistent",
    "title": "Race, statistics, and the persistent cognitive limitations of DALL-E",
    "date": "2023-10-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-race-statistics-and-the-persistent-765f6b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/race-statistics-and-the-persistent",
    "title": "Race, statistics, and the persistent cognitive limitations of DALL-E",
    "date": "2023-10-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-race-statistics-and-the-persistent-c38cb0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:51:30Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/race-statistics-and-the-persistent",
    "title": "Race, statistics, and the persistent cognitive limitations of DALL-E",
    "date": "2023-10-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-reports-of-llms-mastering-math-have-a0ac22",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:05:59Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-llms-mastering-math-have",
    "title": "Reports of LLMs mastering math have been greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2025-04-05"
   },
   "proposition": "The authors have yet to see any evidence that any kind of prompt helps get AIs to say 'I give up' when they cannot solve a problem."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-09e2b6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:22:20Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-18); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly",
    "title": "Reports of the birth of AGI are greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2023-10-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Current AI systems lack intelligence that is flexible and general with resourcefulness and reliability comparable to humans, especially reliability."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-0d5048",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:22:20Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly",
    "title": "Reports of the birth of AGI are greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2023-10-18"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs are weak at planning and at maintaining world models, which strongly suggests key ingredients of AGI have not yet been invented."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-19efa3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:22:20Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly",
    "title": "Reports of the birth of AGI are greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2023-10-18"
   },
   "proposition": "By the classical criteria for AGI, current LLMs hardly qualify as AGI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-919692",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:22:25Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-18); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly",
    "title": "Reports of the birth of AGI are greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2023-10-18"
   },
   "proposition": "As of 2023, computer vision is still far from a solved problem."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-965273",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:37:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful; overclaims: e2 explanation: \"the factuality comparison also favored GPT-4\" — the quoted abstract only says LLM-generated summaries; GPT-4 is not named in the evidence shown..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly",
    "title": "Reports of the birth of AGI are greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2023-10-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-98f0a0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly",
    "title": "Reports of the birth of AGI are greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2023-10-18"
   },
   "proposition": "In many practical problems, working practitioners don't use transformer-based LLMs; they use a wide range of other methods that are often far more tractable, far more reliable, and far more efficient."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-b46388",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:22:55Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-18); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-18); it can only be context; e3 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-18); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly",
    "title": "Reports of the birth of AGI are greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2023-10-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Current machines can't count or do five-digit multiplication, can't reliably generalize kinship relations or reliably follow the rules of chess, can't obey the dictum 'don't make stuff up' when writing a biography or a new story, and the authors have yet to see them drive cars as well as the average human adult."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-f9550e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:37:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Rationale: \"the April 2023 DINOv2 paper ... reports leading general-purpose visual-feature performance [e2]\" — the quoted e2 text only shows a ViT-g backbone used for distillation, not benchmark leadership. | e2 explanation: \"reports leading general-purpose feature performance across image and pixel benchmarks\" — not shown in the quoted evidence..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly",
    "title": "Reports of the birth of AGI are greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2023-10-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-50162b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:06:47Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/rethinking-driverless-cars",
    "title": "Rethinking “driverless cars”",
    "date": "2023-11-05"
   },
   "proposition": "It appears that most or all self-driving work at present is much closer to driver-assist or remotely-assisted driving, and that all published numbers are really about those two, with no disclosure of how much remote centers contribute to the results."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-683b11",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:51:33Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: Some requests resolved automatically, and Cruise said human advisors generally supplied wayfinding guidance rather than driving remotely (e1). | The reported assistance figure of “2–4% of the time on average” has no defined denominator..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/rethinking-driverless-cars",
    "title": "Rethinking “driverless cars”",
    "date": "2023-11-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-6a5895",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:06:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/rethinking-driverless-cars",
    "title": "Rethinking “driverless cars”",
    "date": "2023-11-05"
   },
   "proposition": "If all the self-driving efforts are leaning heavily (e.g., hourly) on call centers, true self-driving is a long way away, and anyone who thinks true Level 5 self-driving is close has probably been deceived."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-richard-dawkins-and-the-claude-delusion-b7b0d5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:51:35Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/richard-dawkins-and-the-claude-delusion",
    "title": "Richard Dawkins and The Claude Delusion",
    "date": "2026-05-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been-0779c8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T11:52:32Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: On the most-cited leaderboard, rank gains partly reflected benchmark-specific overfitting, not general quality..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been",
    "title": "Rumors of AGI’s arrival have been greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2026-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been-4dd675",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been",
    "title": "Rumors of AGI’s arrival have been greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2026-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "On the dimensions of reliability under uncertainty, resistance to systematic failure, and cross-domain transfer, current AI systems remain brittle, sensitive to prompt framing, and inconsistent outside curated evaluation settings."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been-7479db",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:22:37Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been",
    "title": "Rumors of AGI’s arrival have been greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2026-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "Real-world evidence suggests flexibility, generality, and reliability remain elusive for current AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been-989eab",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:09:08Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been",
    "title": "Rumors of AGI’s arrival have been greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2026-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "Current AI systems fall short on robustness, dependable generalization, and resistance to systematic failure, which are essential AGI criteria."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been-b7f930",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:09:08Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been",
    "title": "Rumors of AGI’s arrival have been greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2026-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "In recent years some have tried to redefine AGI in a way that weakens the term, and the authors see no evidence that the original standards for AGI have been met."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been-f61a0b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:09:08Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/rumors-of-agis-arrival-have-been",
    "title": "Rumors of AGI’s arrival have been greatly exaggerated",
    "date": "2026-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": "Today's LLMs lack persistent goals, struggle with long-horizon reasoning, and depend heavily on human scaffolding."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-and-copyright-then-and-c378c1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-and-copyright-then-and",
    "title": "Sam Altman and copyright, then and now: A Tolkiensesque journey",
    "date": "2025-09-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric-159d0e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric",
    "title": "Sam Altman and the day Nvidia’s meteoric rise came to an end",
    "date": "2026-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric-224614",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric",
    "title": "Sam Altman and the day Nvidia’s meteoric rise came to an end",
    "date": "2026-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric-8b0136",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:21:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric",
    "title": "Sam Altman and the day Nvidia’s meteoric rise came to an end",
    "date": "2026-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs are great, but they are not AGI and they are not reliable."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric-91e28b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric",
    "title": "Sam Altman and the day Nvidia’s meteoric rise came to an end",
    "date": "2026-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric-a536b5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:08:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e5 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric",
    "title": "Sam Altman and the day Nvidia’s meteoric rise came to an end",
    "date": "2026-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": "Wall Street lost confidence, particularly after the September Oracle deal, which Marcus called 'peak bubble' at the time."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric-a99089-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric",
    "title": "Sam Altman and the day Nvidia’s meteoric rise came to an end",
    "date": "2026-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric-e6b92c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:36:27Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric",
    "title": "Sam Altman and the day Nvidia’s meteoric rise came to an end",
    "date": "2026-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric-eb35c6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:21:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-and-the-day-nvidias-meteoric",
    "title": "Sam Altman and the day Nvidia’s meteoric rise came to an end",
    "date": "2026-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-then-and-now-dda869",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-then-and-now",
    "title": "Sam Altman, then and now",
    "date": "2024-05-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-thinks-that-agi-is-basically-199106-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:08:16Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-thinks-that-agi-is-basically",
    "title": "Why I don’t share Sam Altman’s confidence that AGI is basically a solved problem",
    "date": "2025-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": "If test-time scaling proves unreliable outside domains where augmentation is adequate, it will get comparatively little commercial traction."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-thinks-that-agi-is-basically-784185-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-thinks-that-agi-is-basically",
    "title": "Why I don’t share Sam Altman’s confidence that AGI is basically a solved problem",
    "date": "2025-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-thinks-that-agi-is-basically-b66b53",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:21:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e5 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-thinks-that-agi-is-basically",
    "title": "Why I don’t share Sam Altman’s confidence that AGI is basically a solved problem",
    "date": "2025-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Despite many promises to the contrary, the lack of reliable database-style records and the hallucinations it causes still routinely lead to inaccurate news summaries, defamation, fictional sources, incorrect advice, and unreliability."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altman-unconstrained-by-the-truth-674386",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T00:58:10Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman-unconstrained-by-the-truth",
    "title": "Sam Altman, unconstrained by the truth",
    "date": "2026-04-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altmans-attitude-problem-d67204",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:21:29Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altmans-attitude-problem",
    "title": "Sam Altman’s attitude problem",
    "date": "2025-04-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altmans-attitude-problem-f8e4c9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:21:29Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altmans-attitude-problem",
    "title": "Sam Altman’s attitude problem",
    "date": "2025-04-15"
   },
   "proposition": "An OpenAI system generated what appeared to be a presumably unlicensed Peanuts cartoon."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altmans-pants-are-totally-on-6fc4ca",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:21:30Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altmans-pants-are-totally-on",
    "title": "Sam Altman’s pants are totally on fire",
    "date": "2025-11-07"
   },
   "proposition": "Altman was, once again, lying when he said \"we do not have or want government guarantees for OpenAI data centers,\" because OpenAI had explicitly asked the White House OSTP to consider federal loan guarantees just a week earlier."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sam-altmans-pants-are-totally-on-7d9bf2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:07:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altmans-pants-are-totally-on",
    "title": "Sam Altman’s pants are totally on fire",
    "date": "2025-11-07"
   },
   "proposition": "Altman lied to the world about OpenAI seeking government loan guarantees."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-satya-nadella-and-the-three-stages-33c6c1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:10:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/satya-nadella-and-the-three-stages",
    "title": "Satya Nadella and the three stages of scientific truth",
    "date": "2024-11-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scaling-hasnt-gotten-us-to-agi-or-bb88a3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:20:39Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scaling-hasnt-gotten-us-to-agi-or",
    "title": "Scaling hasn’t gotten us to AGI, or ‘superintelligence’, let alone AI we could trust. What do we do next?",
    "date": "2025-09-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Scaling has not produced AGI, superintelligence, or trustworthy AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scaling-is-over-the-bubble-may-be-55e09f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:22:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scaling-is-over-the-bubble-may-be",
    "title": "Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam",
    "date": "2025-04-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Trump's crew devastated the global economy with a tariff plan based in part on what they got from an LLM, and they did not even do the math correctly."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scaling-is-over-the-bubble-may-be-eb414d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:36:55Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scaling-is-over-the-bubble-may-be",
    "title": "Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam",
    "date": "2025-04-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scientists-please-dont-let-your-chatbots-0dd133",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scientists-please-dont-let-your-chatbots",
    "title": "Scientists, please don’t let your chatbots grow up to be co-authors",
    "date": "2023-01-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scoop-what-former-employees-of-openai-1e9885",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scoop-what-former-employees-of-openai",
    "title": "Scoop: What former employees of OpenAI are worried about",
    "date": "2024-08-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scoop-what-former-employees-of-openai-5da98c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scoop-what-former-employees-of-openai",
    "title": "Scoop: What former employees of OpenAI are worried about",
    "date": "2024-08-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scoop-what-former-employees-of-openai-6498a7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:38:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed; overclaims: criteria.from_speaker lists \"they could have proposed amendments months ago\" and \"including sun-setting the California law once sufficiently similar federal law existed\" as the speaker's words. These are Saunders's draft-blog words that Marcus quotes. The drafter's own revision note says so..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scoop-what-former-employees-of-openai",
    "title": "Scoop: What former employees of OpenAI are worried about",
    "date": "2024-08-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scoop-what-former-employees-of-openai-85114f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:23:27Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scoop-what-former-employees-of-openai",
    "title": "Scoop: What former employees of OpenAI are worried about",
    "date": "2024-08-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus does not think it even somewhat plausible that AGI will arrive within a few years of August 2024."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scoop-what-former-employees-of-openai-f93cf1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scoop-what-former-employees-of-openai",
    "title": "Scoop: What former employees of OpenAI are worried about",
    "date": "2024-08-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scott-alexanders-misleading-victory-4df734",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:23:18Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scott-alexanders-misleading-victory",
    "title": "Scott Alexander’s Misleading Victory Lap",
    "date": "2025-07-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scott-alexanders-misleading-victory-6b05c6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:23:18Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scott-alexanders-misleading-victory",
    "title": "Scott Alexander’s Misleading Victory Lap",
    "date": "2025-07-09"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-4o succeeds on previously discussed prompts but does worse on new ones, suggesting its compositional ability is far from robust."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-scott-alexanders-misleading-victory-a5c2d6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/scott-alexanders-misleading-victory",
    "title": "Scott Alexander’s Misleading Victory Lap",
    "date": "2025-07-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-self-modern-post-parody-29759e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:08:55Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/self-modern-post-parody",
    "title": "Self-modern, post-parody",
    "date": "2025-05-17"
   },
   "proposition": "The massive Behemoth model has so far not been working."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-self-modern-post-parody-309dea",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T08:08:55Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 measures something else (metric net loss is not net profit (net income)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (metric net loss is not net profit (net income)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 measures something else (metric net loss is not net profit (net income)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/self-modern-post-parody",
    "title": "Self-modern, post-parody",
    "date": "2025-05-17"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI has never turned a profit."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-self-modern-post-parody-64906a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/self-modern-post-parody",
    "title": "Self-modern, post-parody",
    "date": "2025-05-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sentient-ai-for-the-love-of-darwin-f933bc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sentient-ai-for-the-love-of-darwin",
    "title": "Sentient AI: For the love of Darwin, let’s Stop to Think if We Should",
    "date": "2023-08-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-seven-lies-in-four-sentences-55debe",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:37:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/seven-lies-in-four-sentences",
    "title": "Seven lies in four sentences",
    "date": "2023-10-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-seven-reasons-i-wouldnt-count-google-37a933",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/seven-reasons-i-wouldnt-count-google",
    "title": "Seven reasons I wouldn’t count Google out",
    "date": "2026-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Google is going to the bond market yet again, which is worrisome."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-seven-reasons-i-wouldnt-count-google-8bc68d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/seven-reasons-i-wouldnt-count-google",
    "title": "Seven reasons I wouldn’t count Google out",
    "date": "2026-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-seven-reasons-i-wouldnt-count-google-ea7188",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/seven-reasons-i-wouldnt-count-google",
    "title": "Seven reasons I wouldn’t count Google out",
    "date": "2026-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-seven-reasons-why-the-world-should-215ca9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/seven-reasons-why-the-world-should",
    "title": "Seven reasons why the world should say No to Sam Altman",
    "date": "2024-02-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-seven-reasons-why-the-world-should-352f92",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:24:19Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/seven-reasons-why-the-world-should",
    "title": "Seven reasons why the world should say No to Sam Altman",
    "date": "2024-02-10"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI has argued that it literally cannot build what it is building without an exemption from copyright, an exemption that would crush artists, musicians, writers, and other creators."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-seven-replies-to-the-viral-apple-8c90aa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/seven-replies-to-the-viral-apple",
    "title": "Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper – and why they fall short",
    "date": "2025-06-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-seven-replies-to-the-viral-apple-b58cc0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/seven-replies-to-the-viral-apple",
    "title": "Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper – and why they fall short",
    "date": "2025-06-12"
   },
   "proposition": "In many cases LLMs are a step backwards compared with existing systems that run such algorithms without errors, whereas AGI should be a step forward."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sex-violence-and-ethics-trying-to-0aadea",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:37:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sex-violence-and-ethics-trying-to",
    "title": "Sex, Violence, and Ethics: Trying to Teach Grok a Lesson",
    "date": "2025-07-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-shame-on-google-twice-686a00",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/shame-on-google-twice",
    "title": "Shame on Google, twice",
    "date": "2025-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": "In February 2025 Google again showcased an LLM output that contained a hallucinated error, repeating its February 2023 mistake."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-should-we-worry-more-about-short-54ba15",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/should-we-worry-more-about-short",
    "title": "Should we worry more about short-term AI risk or long-term AI risk?",
    "date": "2023-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-should-we-worry-more-about-short-e246ea",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/should-we-worry-more-about-short",
    "title": "Should we worry more about short-term AI risk or long-term AI risk?",
    "date": "2023-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-should-we-worry-more-about-short-ec324a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/should-we-worry-more-about-short",
    "title": "Should we worry more about short-term AI risk or long-term AI risk?",
    "date": "2023-03-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-months-after-the-pause-letter-168ffe",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:23:59Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-months-after-the-pause-letter",
    "title": "Six months after the Pause letter, AI is still erratic — and still something we should still be deeply concerned about",
    "date": "2023-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5, essentially the only thing the pause letter proposed to pause, seems to be on pause, if Sam Altman's May 2023 Senate testimony meant what Marcus thinks it did."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-months-after-the-pause-letter-68a174",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:36:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-months-after-the-pause-letter",
    "title": "Six months after the Pause letter, AI is still erratic — and still something we should still be deeply concerned about",
    "date": "2023-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-months-after-the-pause-letter-c27fc4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:24:01Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-months-after-the-pause-letter",
    "title": "Six months after the Pause letter, AI is still erratic — and still something we should still be deeply concerned about",
    "date": "2023-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": "Society has no real plan to mitigate long-term AI risks."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-months-after-the-pause-letter-c607b1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:24:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-months-after-the-pause-letter",
    "title": "Six months after the Pause letter, AI is still erratic — and still something we should still be deeply concerned about",
    "date": "2023-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs remain unreliable and none of the basic issues Marcus has highlighted for 20 years has been solved."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-months-after-the-pause-letter-d31de2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-months-after-the-pause-letter",
    "title": "Six months after the Pause letter, AI is still erratic — and still something we should still be deeply concerned about",
    "date": "2023-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-months-after-the-pause-letter-daac24",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-months-after-the-pause-letter",
    "title": "Six months after the Pause letter, AI is still erratic — and still something we should still be deeply concerned about",
    "date": "2023-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-months-after-the-pause-letter-dd5dcf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-months-after-the-pause-letter",
    "title": "Six months after the Pause letter, AI is still erratic — and still something we should still be deeply concerned about",
    "date": "2023-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-months-after-the-pause-letter-e5537c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:24:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-months-after-the-pause-letter",
    "title": "Six months after the Pause letter, AI is still erratic — and still something we should still be deeply concerned about",
    "date": "2023-09-21"
   },
   "proposition": "None of the big AI companies discloses what is in their training data sets despite pledging transparency."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026-04a549",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:25:35Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review abstained.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026",
    "title": "Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist",
    "date": "2025-12-20"
   },
   "proposition": "In 2026, public backlash against generative AI and radical AI deregulation will escalate."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026-110fa7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:25:35Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/not_adjudicable.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026",
    "title": "Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist",
    "date": "2025-12-20"
   },
   "proposition": "In 2025 AGI did not materialize, and GPT-5 was underwhelming and did not solve hallucinations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026-1632dd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:25:35Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/not_adjudicable.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026",
    "title": "Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist",
    "date": "2025-12-20"
   },
   "proposition": "As of December 2025, LLMs are still not reliable and their economics look dubious."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026-763cad",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:38:46Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026",
    "title": "Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist",
    "date": "2025-12-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026-db962b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:38:46Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026",
    "title": "Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist",
    "date": "2025-12-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026-e53987",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:24:08Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026",
    "title": "Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist",
    "date": "2025-12-20"
   },
   "proposition": "AI will be an election issue for the first time in the 2026 US midterm elections."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter-5600ee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:38:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter",
    "title": "Smells a little bit like AI winter?",
    "date": "2023-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter-64336e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter",
    "title": "Smells a little bit like AI winter?",
    "date": "2023-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-some-disconcerting-facts-about-ai-92546b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:26:13Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/some-disconcerting-facts-about-ai",
    "title": "Some disconcerting facts about AI and banking that may have profound consequences",
    "date": "2026-02-10"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus has a hard time seeing how the debt-financed AI data center buildout does not end badly, in a recession, maybe worse."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sora-cant-handle-the-truth-3a6dd1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sora-cant-handle-the-truth",
    "title": "Sora Can’t Handle the Truth",
    "date": "2024-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sora-cant-handle-the-truth-65d869",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sora-cant-handle-the-truth",
    "title": "Sora Can’t Handle the Truth",
    "date": "2024-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sora-cant-handle-the-truth-d0cf91",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sora-cant-handle-the-truth",
    "title": "Sora Can’t Handle the Truth",
    "date": "2024-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sora-cant-handle-the-truth-ffbb46",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sora-cant-handle-the-truth",
    "title": "Sora Can’t Handle the Truth",
    "date": "2024-02-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-soras-surreal-physics-0677aa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/soras-surreal-physics",
    "title": "Sora’s Surreal Physics",
    "date": "2024-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-soras-surreal-physics-12448e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:25:48Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/soras-surreal-physics",
    "title": "Sora’s Surreal Physics",
    "date": "2024-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Sora, like other generative AI systems, has no way to encode and guarantee constraints such as truthfulness or obeying physics."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-soras-surreal-physics-5e107a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/soras-surreal-physics",
    "title": "Sora’s Surreal Physics",
    "date": "2024-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-soras-surreal-physics-77a2b8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/soras-surreal-physics",
    "title": "Sora’s Surreal Physics",
    "date": "2024-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-soras-surreal-physics-da5e54",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/soras-surreal-physics",
    "title": "Sora’s Surreal Physics",
    "date": "2024-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sorry-but-funsearch-probably-isnt-84c5e6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sorry-but-funsearch-probably-isnt",
    "title": "Sorry, but FunSearch probably isn’t a milestone in scientific discovery",
    "date": "2023-12-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached-106fee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:26:24Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2026-07, which is not inside the period described (… to 2026-07-28); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached",
    "title": "Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity",
    "date": "2026-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Poorly controlled AI exists, but this is not a new development."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached-19360e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:26:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached",
    "title": "Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity",
    "date": "2026-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Musk's prediction that AGI would be achieved by 2025 turned out to be false."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached-5c58ab",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached",
    "title": "Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity",
    "date": "2026-07-28"
   },
   "proposition": "The much-discussed OpenAI hack of HuggingFace was launched by a human at OpenAI and was a drill, not spontaneous combustion, and with a physical firewall it would not have happened."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-spinal-tap-meets-john-malkovich-486745",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:28:31Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/spinal-tap-meets-john-malkovich",
    "title": "Spinal Tap meets John Malkovich",
    "date": "2025-08-31"
   },
   "proposition": "When the image-generating AI systems under discussion are run many times, they are sometimes right and sometimes wrong, and you never know which result you will get."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-spinal-tap-meets-john-malkovich-49e2f3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:28:31Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/spinal-tap-meets-john-malkovich",
    "title": "Spinal Tap meets John Malkovich",
    "date": "2025-08-31"
   },
   "proposition": "The model that produced the rebuttal image (ChatGPT-5 Thinking) was clearly better than the model whose unicycle image Marcus had ridiculed."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-spinal-tap-meets-john-malkovich-a8e949",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/spinal-tap-meets-john-malkovich",
    "title": "Spinal Tap meets John Malkovich",
    "date": "2025-08-31"
   },
   "proposition": "Better graphics in the image-generating AI systems under discussion do not necessarily mean a better understanding of the world."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-statistics-versus-understanding-the-1787b1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/statistics-versus-understanding-the",
    "title": "Statistics versus Understanding: The Essence of What Ails Generative AI",
    "date": "2024-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-statistics-versus-understanding-the-325195",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:04Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/statistics-versus-understanding-the",
    "title": "Statistics versus Understanding: The Essence of What Ails Generative AI",
    "date": "2024-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-statistics-versus-understanding-the-9b6676",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:27:20Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/statistics-versus-understanding-the",
    "title": "Statistics versus Understanding: The Essence of What Ails Generative AI",
    "date": "2024-02-13"
   },
   "proposition": "The critic's objection that the system had not been taught relevant information about left-handed drawing is nonsense, because a few seconds on Google Images turns up lots of people drawing with their left hand."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-stop-treating-ai-models-like-people-40ed31",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/stop-treating-ai-models-like-people",
    "title": "Stop Treating AI Models Like People",
    "date": "2023-04-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sub-optimal-2501dc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sub-optimal",
    "title": "Sub-Optimal",
    "date": "2022-10-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sub-optimal-8375e8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:27:16Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sub-optimal",
    "title": "Sub-Optimal",
    "date": "2022-10-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Mass purchase of Tesla's $20k robot generating lots of data is speculative at best and years away even optimistically."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sub-optimal-b97db5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sub-optimal",
    "title": "Sub-Optimal",
    "date": "2022-10-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sub-optimal-d58e88",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:27:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sub-optimal",
    "title": "Sub-Optimal",
    "date": "2022-10-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Tesla's Optimus presentation outlined no clear vision for what Optimus would do and little justification for its design."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sub-optimal-f89b27",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:18Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sub-optimal",
    "title": "Sub-Optimal",
    "date": "2022-10-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sub-optimal-fa1170",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sub-optimal",
    "title": "Sub-Optimal",
    "date": "2022-10-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-sub-optimal-fc985f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:26:48Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sub-optimal",
    "title": "Sub-Optimal",
    "date": "2022-10-01"
   },
   "proposition": "Boston Dynamics' robots appear to be far ahead of what Tesla showed in the Optimus demo."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh-9e0473",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh",
    "title": "Superhuman AGI is not nigh",
    "date": "2024-04-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh-f76683",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:26:50Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh",
    "title": "Superhuman AGI is not nigh",
    "date": "2024-04-12"
   },
   "proposition": "As of April 2024, all listed tasks (including Pulitzer-caliber books, Oscar-caliber screenplays, Nobel-caliber discoveries) appear outside the bounds of current AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-technology-review-jumps-the-shark-927767",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/technology-review-jumps-the-shark",
    "title": "Technology Review jumps the shark",
    "date": "2025-05-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-technoptimism-ted-and-the-road-to-cc3117",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/technoptimism-ted-and-the-road-to",
    "title": "Technoptimism, TED, and The Road to the Future",
    "date": "2024-04-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-1695a1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time",
    "title": "TED, AI, and the test of time",
    "date": "2024-04-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-2023-white-house-executive-order-2e2807",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-2023-white-house-executive-order",
    "title": "The 2023 White House Executive Order on AI has Been Rescinded",
    "date": "2025-01-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-53bab5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic",
    "title": "The “AI 2027” Scenario: How realistic is it?",
    "date": "2025-05-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-681ef7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic",
    "title": "The “AI 2027” Scenario: How realistic is it?",
    "date": "2025-05-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-68587f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic",
    "title": "The “AI 2027” Scenario: How realistic is it?",
    "date": "2025-05-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-d37be4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic",
    "title": "The “AI 2027” Scenario: How realistic is it?",
    "date": "2025-05-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Companies churning out synthetic math problems, especially since last fall, have produced considerable improvements on math and coding, but those gains have been far from universal."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby-09ece4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby",
    "title": "The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue",
    "date": "2025-12-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby-1d80ca",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby",
    "title": "The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue",
    "date": "2025-12-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby-8d919c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:26Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby",
    "title": "The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue",
    "date": "2025-12-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby-8f37ef",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:26Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby",
    "title": "The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue",
    "date": "2025-12-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-ai-trial-of-the-century-ends-cb91d2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-trial-of-the-century-ends",
    "title": "The AI trial of the century ends with a whimper",
    "date": "2026-05-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-back-story-behind-the-first-18-47c0ce",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-back-story-behind-the-first-18",
    "title": "The back story behind the first “$1.8 Billion” dollar “AI Company”",
    "date": "2026-04-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-bad-news-ai-is-going-pretty-much-13b7a2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-bad-news-ai-is-going-pretty-much",
    "title": "The bad news: AI is going pretty much as I expected",
    "date": "2025-09-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-biggest-advance-in-ai-since-the-559e72",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-biggest-advance-in-ai-since-the",
    "title": "The biggest advance in AI since the LLM",
    "date": "2026-04-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-biggest-advance-in-ai-since-the-e24265",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-biggest-advance-in-ai-since-the",
    "title": "The biggest advance in AI since the LLM",
    "date": "2026-04-11"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-desperate-race-to-save-generative-4a34be",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-desperate-race-to-save-generative",
    "title": "The desperate race to save Generative AI",
    "date": "2024-01-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-desperate-race-to-save-generative-830233",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:29:34Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-desperate-race-to-save-generative",
    "title": "The desperate race to save Generative AI",
    "date": "2024-01-08"
   },
   "proposition": "It is not clear that retrieval augmented generation played a key role in the NYT regurgitation examples."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-desperate-race-to-save-generative-835d9e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:29:34Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-desperate-race-to-save-generative",
    "title": "The desperate race to save Generative AI",
    "date": "2024-01-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Image generation programs have not been using RAG so far, and it would be much harder to do with images."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-desperate-race-to-save-generative-b17ec6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-desperate-race-to-save-generative",
    "title": "The desperate race to save Generative AI",
    "date": "2024-01-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-desperate-race-to-save-generative-b2d8bc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:28:58Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-desperate-race-to-save-generative",
    "title": "The desperate race to save Generative AI",
    "date": "2024-01-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Current AI cannot learn without internet-scale data, a flaw of current methods rather than a necessity for AI in general."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-dirty-underbelly-of-ai-e116c2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:28:12Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-dirty-underbelly-of-ai",
    "title": "The dirty underbelly of AI",
    "date": "2023-09-07"
   },
   "proposition": "The current AI paradigm needs so much data that the entire public internet does not seem to be enough."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-dirty-underbelly-of-ai-f975c5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:28:12Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-dirty-underbelly-of-ai",
    "title": "The dirty underbelly of AI",
    "date": "2023-09-07"
   },
   "proposition": "An AI paradigm that could learn much of what it needed to be effective in the world without going through all of a person's personal data is imaginable but does not yet exist."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-false-glorification-of-yann-lecun-3902fc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:29:04Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-false-glorification-of-yann-lecun",
    "title": "The False Glorification of Yann LeCun",
    "date": "2025-11-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-false-glorification-of-yann-lecun-84b637",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-false-glorification-of-yann-lecun",
    "title": "The False Glorification of Yann LeCun",
    "date": "2025-11-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-first-known-chatbot-associated-13bf3c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-first-known-chatbot-associated",
    "title": "The first known chatbot associated death",
    "date": "2023-04-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-first-known-chatbot-associated-8b0d6b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-first-known-chatbot-associated",
    "title": "The first known chatbot associated death",
    "date": "2023-04-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-first-known-chatbot-associated-b95c6d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:45Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: Alongside the much smaller March total in the first claim's evidence, this supports growth in chat-based search after the forecast..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-first-known-chatbot-associated",
    "title": "The first known chatbot associated death",
    "date": "2023-04-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-first-known-chatbot-associated-f3ead0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:45Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-first-known-chatbot-associated",
    "title": "The first known chatbot associated death",
    "date": "2023-04-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-first-known-chatbot-associated-fd7ec3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-first-known-chatbot-associated",
    "title": "The first known chatbot associated death",
    "date": "2023-04-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-five-stages-of-agi-grief-02b063",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-five-stages-of-agi-grief",
    "title": "The Five Stages of AGI Grief",
    "date": "2025-01-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-five-stages-of-agi-grief-8eb1f4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-five-stages-of-agi-grief",
    "title": "The Five Stages of AGI Grief",
    "date": "2025-01-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-generative-ai-fizzle-87bf41",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-generative-ai-fizzle",
    "title": "The Generative AI Fizzle™",
    "date": "2026-06-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-generative-ai-fizzle-dec7b6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The report put the loss excluding a nonrecurring accounting charge at approximately $8 billion [e1]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-generative-ai-fizzle",
    "title": "The Generative AI Fizzle™",
    "date": "2026-06-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-great-ai-retrenchment-has-begun-b40d0d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:32:08Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-great-ai-retrenchment-has-begun",
    "title": "The Great AI Retrenchment has begun",
    "date": "2024-06-15"
   },
   "proposition": "There will be more revisionism and downsized expectations about AI throughout 2024 and 2025."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-great-ai-retrenchment-has-begun-b90353",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:56Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-great-ai-retrenchment-has-begun",
    "title": "The Great AI Retrenchment has begun",
    "date": "2024-06-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-greatest-capital-misallocation-77294d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:30:13Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-greatest-capital-misallocation",
    "title": "The greatest capital misallocation in history?",
    "date": "2026-04-30"
   },
   "proposition": "The fact that Marcus's technical and economic warnings about AI are at last starting to break through in mainstream outlets (such as Last Week Tonight and MarketWatch) is a strong sign that times are changing and that skepticism is rising."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-growing-ai-backlash-606d2d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-growing-ai-backlash",
    "title": "The growing AI backlash",
    "date": "2026-05-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-growing-ai-backlash-f9e9dc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-growing-ai-backlash",
    "title": "The growing AI backlash",
    "date": "2026-05-04"
   },
   "proposition": "Most of generative AI's downsides were predictable."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-hottest-new-programming-language-644f1f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-hottest-new-programming-language",
    "title": "The hottest new programming language is English! Or maybe not.",
    "date": "2024-02-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-hottest-new-programming-language-75207b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-hottest-new-programming-language",
    "title": "The hottest new programming language is English! Or maybe not.",
    "date": "2024-02-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-illusion-of-generative-ai-the-25ac95",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-illusion-of-generative-ai-the",
    "title": "The illusion of Generative AI, the insanity of massive bets on hyperscaling, and the case for world models and neurosymbolic AI",
    "date": "2026-05-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-imminent-enshittification-of-0210b5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-imminent-enshittification-of",
    "title": "The Imminent Enshittification of the Internet",
    "date": "2023-08-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-imminent-enshittification-of-35f153",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:31:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/conclusive_event/supported, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-imminent-enshittification-of",
    "title": "The Imminent Enshittification of the Internet",
    "date": "2023-08-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Once LLMs make stuff up like that, that garbage will circulate from one LLM (stochastic parrot) to the next."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-imminent-enshittification-of-454594",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:31:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-imminent-enshittification-of",
    "title": "The Imminent Enshittification of the Internet",
    "date": "2023-08-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Not just the internet but Amazon too has been infested, as people are using GPT to create low-quality books."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-imminent-enshittification-of-f1d5eb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:30:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-imminent-enshittification-of",
    "title": "The Imminent Enshittification of the Internet",
    "date": "2023-08-16"
   },
   "proposition": "AI-powered search engines are taking in each other's errors (an echo chamber effect), as when Bard repeated a blunder copied from ChatGPT."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-irony-and-the-agony-of-elon-musks-9c5480",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:31:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-irony-and-the-agony-of-elon-musks",
    "title": "The Irony and the Agony of Elon Musk's Lawsuit against OpenAI",
    "date": "2024-03-03"
   },
   "proposition": "The changes to OpenAI's mission statement reflect changes to the mission that were not originally envisioned."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-last-few-months-have-been-devastating-029f5e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:31:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025-10, which is not inside the period described (2025-10-01 to 2025-10-18); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-last-few-months-have-been-devastating",
    "title": "Game over. AGI is not imminent, and LLMs are not the royal road to getting there.",
    "date": "2025-10-18"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's Sebastien Bubeck made wildly overhyped claims about AI math achievements, and Demis Hassabis debunked them in October 2025."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-last-few-months-have-been-devastating-208a66",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-last-few-months-have-been-devastating",
    "title": "Game over. AGI is not imminent, and LLMs are not the royal road to getting there.",
    "date": "2025-10-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-last-few-months-have-been-devastating-80f768",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:31:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-last-few-months-have-been-devastating",
    "title": "Game over. AGI is not imminent, and LLMs are not the royal road to getting there.",
    "date": "2025-10-18"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5, released in August 2025, arrived late and did not meet expectations."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-last-two-weeks-at-openai-142931",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:33:12Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-last-two-weeks-at-openai",
    "title": "The last two weeks at OpenAI",
    "date": "2024-02-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-last-two-weeks-at-openai-3bdfc7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:33:12Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-last-two-weeks-at-openai",
    "title": "The last two weeks at OpenAI",
    "date": "2024-02-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Andrej Karpathy, co-lead on OpenAI's agent project, left OpenAI in February 2024."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-last-two-weeks-at-openai-59b61b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:33:12Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-last-two-weeks-at-openai",
    "title": "The last two weeks at OpenAI",
    "date": "2024-02-29"
   },
   "proposition": "In the two weeks before 29 February 2024, ChatGPT had a mostly unexplained meltdown, which Marcus tentatively put at six hours while flagging that figure as uncertain."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-last-two-weeks-at-openai-d315bf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:33:12Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-last-two-weeks-at-openai",
    "title": "The last two weeks at OpenAI",
    "date": "2024-02-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-last-two-weeks-at-openai-da8ecf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:41:06Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-last-two-weeks-at-openai",
    "title": "The last two weeks at OpenAI",
    "date": "2024-02-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why-148b02",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why",
    "title": "The latest AI scaling graph - and why it hardly makes sense",
    "date": "2025-05-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why-2a2a2b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why",
    "title": "The latest AI scaling graph - and why it hardly makes sense",
    "date": "2025-05-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why-5bb71c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:41:25Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why",
    "title": "The latest AI scaling graph - and why it hardly makes sense",
    "date": "2025-05-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why-9cf4ba",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why",
    "title": "The latest AI scaling graph - and why it hardly makes sense",
    "date": "2025-05-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why-c06f05",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why",
    "title": "The latest AI scaling graph - and why it hardly makes sense",
    "date": "2025-05-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why-cf0b29",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:32:03Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why",
    "title": "The latest AI scaling graph - and why it hardly makes sense",
    "date": "2025-05-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why-d6e571",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why",
    "title": "The latest AI scaling graph - and why it hardly makes sense",
    "date": "2025-05-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why-eb18e0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why",
    "title": "The latest AI scaling graph - and why it hardly makes sense",
    "date": "2025-05-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why-f55aad",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-latest-ai-scaling-graph-and-why",
    "title": "The latest AI scaling graph - and why it hardly makes sense",
    "date": "2025-05-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-long-shadow-of-gpt-895f95",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:32:46Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-long-shadow-of-gpt",
    "title": "The long shadow of GPT",
    "date": "2023-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": "Large language models are almost certain to cause harm."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-long-shadow-of-gpt-ebd2a9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-long-shadow-of-gpt",
    "title": "The long shadow of GPT",
    "date": "2023-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-mirage-of-visual-understanding-c23eda",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-mirage-of-visual-understanding",
    "title": "The mirage of visual understanding in current frontier models",
    "date": "2026-03-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-mirage-of-visual-understanding-ef5048",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-mirage-of-visual-understanding",
    "title": "The mirage of visual understanding in current frontier models",
    "date": "2026-03-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-misguided-backlash-against-californias-37b0c4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:32:48Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-misguided-backlash-against-californias",
    "title": "The misguided backlash against California’s SB-1047",
    "date": "2024-06-07"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as Marcus knows, none of the AI companies that said they support AI regulation is supporting SB-1047 or offering a substantive alternative."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-misguided-backlash-against-californias-5258e6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-misguided-backlash-against-californias",
    "title": "The misguided backlash against California’s SB-1047",
    "date": "2024-06-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-misguided-backlash-against-californias-6ebe32",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-misguided-backlash-against-californias",
    "title": "The misguided backlash against California’s SB-1047",
    "date": "2024-06-07"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus says he does not see any provision in SB-1047 that would subject new model developers to regulatory challenges the dominant AI players are exempt from, and that the industry group quoted by The Information names no such specific challenges."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-misguided-backlash-against-californias-c3bf59",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:04Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: These findings support the observation about the early Recall index [e1, e2]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-misguided-backlash-against-californias",
    "title": "The misguided backlash against California’s SB-1047",
    "date": "2024-06-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-misguided-backlash-against-californias-c41ab9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-misguided-backlash-against-californias",
    "title": "The misguided backlash against California’s SB-1047",
    "date": "2024-06-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-misguided-backlash-against-californias-e7b379",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-misguided-backlash-against-californias",
    "title": "The misguided backlash against California’s SB-1047",
    "date": "2024-06-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-month-generative-ai-lost-its-303234",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-month-generative-ai-lost-its",
    "title": "The month Generative AI lost its mojo",
    "date": "2026-06-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-month-generative-ai-lost-its-362eef",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:33:43Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e5 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-month-generative-ai-lost-its",
    "title": "The month Generative AI lost its mojo",
    "date": "2026-06-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Over the last month, Nvidia is down over 8%, Oracle about 22%, CoreWeave a bit over 4%, Microsoft 10%, and Cerebras 32%, and SoftBank is down about 12%."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-month-generative-ai-lost-its-3e7c82",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:33:43Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-month-generative-ai-lost-its",
    "title": "The month Generative AI lost its mojo",
    "date": "2026-06-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Smith's conclusion that there is no bubble doesn't follow, because the chart Smith shared shows that revenue is up but not that profitability is up or that it can be sustained."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-month-generative-ai-lost-its-a2520b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:36Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-month-generative-ai-lost-its",
    "title": "The month Generative AI lost its mojo",
    "date": "2026-06-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-month-generative-ai-lost-its-a948c0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-month-generative-ai-lost-its",
    "title": "The month Generative AI lost its mojo",
    "date": "2026-06-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-month-generative-ai-lost-its-af0cf3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:36Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-month-generative-ai-lost-its",
    "title": "The month Generative AI lost its mojo",
    "date": "2026-06-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-month-generative-ai-lost-its-b392c0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:34:16Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai review doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-month-generative-ai-lost-its",
    "title": "The month Generative AI lost its mojo",
    "date": "2026-06-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-month-generative-ai-lost-its-e7a329",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-month-generative-ai-lost-its",
    "title": "The month Generative AI lost its mojo",
    "date": "2026-06-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-need-for-a-president-that-speaks-5a48ca",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-need-for-a-president-that-speaks",
    "title": "The need for a President that speaks AI natively",
    "date": "2024-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Altman offhandedly told the Aspen audience that AI could double the world's GDP, without offering a shred of evidence."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-need-for-a-president-that-speaks-7c5364",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-need-for-a-president-that-speaks",
    "title": "The need for a President that speaks AI natively",
    "date": "2024-06-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-1705d9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence",
    "title": "The New Science of Alt Intelligence",
    "date": "2022-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-8cd6fd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence",
    "title": "The New Science of Alt Intelligence",
    "date": "2022-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-f70bf0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence",
    "title": "The New Science of Alt Intelligence",
    "date": "2022-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-new-sport-of-misrepresenting-582f3a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:26Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Failures to generalize do not establish that no genuine improvement occurred; some gains transferred to independent tests [e2, e3]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-new-sport-of-misrepresenting",
    "title": "The New Sport of Misrepresenting AI Criticism",
    "date": "2022-09-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-new-sport-of-misrepresenting-9b3407",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-new-sport-of-misrepresenting",
    "title": "The New Sport of Misrepresenting AI Criticism",
    "date": "2022-09-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-new-sport-of-misrepresenting-d37f85",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-new-sport-of-misrepresenting",
    "title": "The New Sport of Misrepresenting AI Criticism",
    "date": "2022-09-23"
   },
   "proposition": "A recent article by Guy van den Broeck's lab shows that apparently successful performance on logic by neural networks is often driven by unstable statistical contingency."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-open-letter-controversy-b386ab-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:33:53Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-open-letter-controversy",
    "title": "The Open Letter Controversy",
    "date": "2023-03-30"
   },
   "proposition": "AI governance basically does not exist yet."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-open-letter-controversy-b386ab-3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e1 explanation: \"The launch documentation describes refusal training, expert adversarial testing feeding into mitigations, and monitoring and enforcement for the deployed model.\" The e1 text never mentions enforcement. It also presents monitoring for abuse only as something it is 'important' to add, not as a control that is in place..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-open-letter-controversy",
    "title": "The Open Letter Controversy",
    "date": "2023-03-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-open-letter-controversy-dcb6c2-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:33:27Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023-03, which is not inside the period described (2023-03-01 to 2023-03-30); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-open-letter-controversy",
    "title": "The Open Letter Controversy",
    "date": "2023-03-30"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs are a very poor basis for factuality."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-openai-board-was-right-8c26b1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:32:38Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-openai-board-was-right",
    "title": "The OpenAI board was right",
    "date": "2024-05-21"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's voice assistant demo will never work robustly as advertised."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-openai-plot-thickens-3977e6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-openai-plot-thickens",
    "title": "The OpenAI Plot Thickens",
    "date": "2024-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-openai-plot-thickens-627fad",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-openai-plot-thickens",
    "title": "The OpenAI Plot Thickens",
    "date": "2024-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-openai-plot-thickens-848571",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:34:58Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e3 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e4 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e5 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e6 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-openai-plot-thickens",
    "title": "The OpenAI Plot Thickens",
    "date": "2024-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI has huge operating losses, big staff costs, an apparent morale problem, no GPT-5, competitors catching up, Meta giving away similar tech free, and Microsoft dealing with competitors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-openai-plot-thickens-8c6c7e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:51Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: The report dates Saunders's departure to February and Kokotajlo's to April, when both were gone. It identifies their superalignment and governance work, establishing two additional safety-related resignations..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-openai-plot-thickens",
    "title": "The OpenAI Plot Thickens",
    "date": "2024-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-pope-gets-it-1a9134",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-pope-gets-it",
    "title": "The Pope gets it",
    "date": "2025-05-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-possibly-coming-ai-backlash-and-8a2b19",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-possibly-coming-ai-backlash-and",
    "title": "The (possibly) coming AI backlash and information warfare",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-possibly-coming-ai-backlash-and-9280d1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-possibly-coming-ai-backlash-and",
    "title": "The (possibly) coming AI backlash and information warfare",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-possibly-coming-ai-backlash-and-a4b88f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-possibly-coming-ai-backlash-and",
    "title": "The (possibly) coming AI backlash and information warfare",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-possibly-coming-ai-backlash-and-dbd652",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-possibly-coming-ai-backlash-and",
    "title": "The (possibly) coming AI backlash and information warfare",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-possibly-coming-ai-backlash-and-e6fde1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-possibly-coming-ai-backlash-and",
    "title": "The (possibly) coming AI backlash and information warfare",
    "date": "2026-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-potential-genai-copyright-infringement-f37d93",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:46Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: The January 6, 2024 Marcus–Southen article identifies recognizable copyrighted material in Midjourney outputs as its subject [e2]. | he also discloses prior communication with the authors.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-potential-genai-copyright-infringement",
    "title": "The potential GenAI copyright infringement plot thickens",
    "date": "2024-01-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-between-positive-and-negative-230c51",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-between-positive-and-negative",
    "title": "The race between positive and negative applications of Generative AI is on – and not looking pretty",
    "date": "2024-03-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-between-positive-and-negative-6251b9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:35:35Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-between-positive-and-negative",
    "title": "The race between positive and negative applications of Generative AI is on – and not looking pretty",
    "date": "2024-03-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Artists, creators, and now influencers are having their careers wrecked by software that trades on their work, and in many cases the companies training models on these works are not paying for that work."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-between-positive-and-negative-a17ab6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-between-positive-and-negative",
    "title": "The race between positive and negative applications of Generative AI is on – and not looking pretty",
    "date": "2024-03-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-between-positive-and-negative-ecb86d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:33:26Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-between-positive-and-negative",
    "title": "The race between positive and negative applications of Generative AI is on – and not looking pretty",
    "date": "2024-03-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI companies are not being held legally responsible for societal damage caused by generative AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-03100c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:35:10Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2025-01, which is not inside the period described (2025-01-01 to 2025-01-26); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI no longer clearly leads technically; competitors have largely caught up and often undercut it on price."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-15fb68",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:35:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e4 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs are about to get a lot cheaper, possibly making consumers the big winners, despite reliability problems."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-1e522d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-2b5d63",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:35:18Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025-01, which is not inside the period described (2024-12-01 to 2025-01-26); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "The US and China are quickly converging on a tie in AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-44f477",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:35:18Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "DeepSeek's results suggest competitive AI is possible without Nvidia's top-of-the-line chips."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-58e915",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:35:18Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's relationship with Microsoft has soured and Altman's credibility has diminished."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-603fda",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus bets that, other things being equal, in three years models will have continued to get more efficient and less expensive, but hallucinations and reliability problems will persist."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-7917c2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e4 explanation: \"METR found substantially weaker performance than leading US models on some autonomous and AI research tasks.\" METR says R1 was slightly better than o1-preview and roughly at the September 2024 frontier on autonomy tasks. On RE-Bench it was only 'worse' than frontier models other than GPT-4o. 'Substantially' and the autonomy part are not supported..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-79a527",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus bets that, other things being equal and contrary to Silicon Valley scuttlebutt, neither the US nor China will achieve AGI by the end of 2027."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-7f6392",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-931d40",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus bets that, other things being equal, in three years AI advances will be more incremental than before and quickly matched."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-951c0a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-9692db",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:35:28Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "There is almost no moat in LLMs; technical leads last months or weeks, not years."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-98d5c3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-a388d9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-a8b1fb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-b453dc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:35:28Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2025-01, which is not inside the period described (2025-01-01 to 2025-01-26); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "DeepSeek's r1 is a competitive, though not fully adequate, alternative to OpenAI's o1."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-b4f443",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-b58d0f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-bc6d6d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-ccdc53",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:35:28Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2025-01, which is not inside the period described (2024-12-01 to 2025-01-26); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Recent Chinese AI papers showed that the US is not decisively ahead in AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-d76705",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-f854ee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus bets that, other things being equal, GPT-5 or a similarly impressive model will come eventually, perhaps from OpenAI, a Chinese company or a competitor like Google, and whoever gets there first will have only a short-lived advantage."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-fc1bf5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:34:35Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over",
    "title": "The race for \"AI Supremacy\" is over — at least for now.",
    "date": "2025-01-26"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 has not been released as of January 2025."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-rapid-rise-and-slow-decline-of-0af5f0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-rapid-rise-and-slow-decline-of",
    "title": "The rapid rise and slow decline of Sam Altman",
    "date": "2026-01-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-rapid-rise-and-slow-decline-of-3da027",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-rapid-rise-and-slow-decline-of",
    "title": "The rapid rise and slow decline of Sam Altman",
    "date": "2026-01-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-rapid-rise-and-slow-decline-of-693d07",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-rapid-rise-and-slow-decline-of",
    "title": "The rapid rise and slow decline of Sam Altman",
    "date": "2026-01-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-rapid-rise-and-slow-decline-of-d521cc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-rapid-rise-and-slow-decline-of",
    "title": "The rapid rise and slow decline of Sam Altman",
    "date": "2026-01-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-revenge-of-claude-mythos-33e1f9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:52:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-revenge-of-claude-mythos",
    "title": "The revenge of Claude Mythos",
    "date": "2026-06-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-revenge-of-claude-mythos-33e1f9-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-revenge-of-claude-mythos",
    "title": "The revenge of Claude Mythos",
    "date": "2026-06-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Anthropic, which Marcus says once said it would not work on frontier models because they were dangerous, has just introduced a new frontier model that is hellbent on racing everyone on all the benchmarks."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-revenge-of-claude-mythos-7b735d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:35:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-revenge-of-claude-mythos",
    "title": "The revenge of Claude Mythos",
    "date": "2026-06-09"
   },
   "proposition": "The 'tokenmaxxing' phase has ended and companies have started limiting their AI token budgets."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-revenge-of-claude-mythos-a2d516",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:35:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-revenge-of-claude-mythos",
    "title": "The revenge of Claude Mythos",
    "date": "2026-06-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Two months later, Mythos is no longer treated as too dangerous to release, just as tokenmaxxing has ended and companies have begun to limit their AI token budgets."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-revenge-of-claude-mythos-b12fa3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: Specified harmful requests were routed to Opus 4.8, while Mythos 5 without those limits remained restricted to vetted customers [e1]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-revenge-of-claude-mythos",
    "title": "The revenge of Claude Mythos",
    "date": "2026-06-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-rise-and-fall-of-chatgpt-92c972",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-chatgpt",
    "title": "The Rise and Fall of ChatGPT?",
    "date": "2023-08-24"
   },
   "proposition": "Many companies are struggling to deploy generative AI because of high costs and confusion, and without deployment there is no revenue."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-rise-and-fall-of-microsofts-new-8b2fae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-microsofts-new",
    "title": "The rise and fall of Microsoft’s new Bing",
    "date": "2023-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-roi-on-genai-might-not-be-so-d2b2e8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-roi-on-genai-might-not-be-so",
    "title": "The ROI on GenAI might not be so great, after all",
    "date": "2024-03-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-sam-altman-playbook-1a8ea4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-sam-altman-playbook",
    "title": "The Sam Altman Playbook",
    "date": "2024-05-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-sam-altman-playbook-2e999d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-sam-altman-playbook",
    "title": "The Sam Altman Playbook",
    "date": "2024-05-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-sam-altman-playbook-56b19c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-sam-altman-playbook",
    "title": "The Sam Altman Playbook",
    "date": "2024-05-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-sam-altman-playbook-b071a1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-sam-altman-playbook",
    "title": "The Sam Altman Playbook",
    "date": "2024-05-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Roughly half of OpenAI's first couple hundred billion dollars in profits, if they materialize at all, will go to Microsoft, and artists, writers, publishers and others are being screwed day after day, their work used without compensation or consent."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-second-worst-100b-investment-1d1af7-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-second-worst-100b-investment",
    "title": "The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?",
    "date": "2024-03-30"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-secret-behind-metas-muse-0ca3ae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-secret-behind-metas-muse",
    "title": "The secret behind Meta’s Muse",
    "date": "2026-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-secret-behind-metas-muse-21a178",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-secret-behind-metas-muse",
    "title": "The secret behind Meta’s Muse",
    "date": "2026-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-secret-behind-metas-muse-4b48c6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-secret-behind-metas-muse",
    "title": "The secret behind Meta’s Muse",
    "date": "2026-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-secret-to-agi-in-4-pages-6c6b92",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-secret-to-agi-in-4-pages",
    "title": "The secret to AGI, in 4 pages",
    "date": "2025-05-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-seven-most-shambolic-things-that-2fd8db",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:36:21Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 measures something else (metric Financial distress and forced disposal of public-equity holdings is not Financial distress and forced disposal of a heavily leveraged public-equity portfolio); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (metric Public-equity portfolio leverage before forced disposal is not Financial distress and forced disposal of a heavily leveraged public-equity portfolio); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-seven-most-shambolic-things-that",
    "title": "The seven most shambolic things that happened in AI today.",
    "date": "2026-07-31"
   },
   "proposition": "Leopold Aschenbrenner's high-flying hedge fund Situational Awareness suffered a dramatic downfall, which Marcus describes as hubris-fueled and hyper-leveraged."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-seven-most-shambolic-things-that-94e034",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-seven-most-shambolic-things-that",
    "title": "The seven most shambolic things that happened in AI today.",
    "date": "2026-07-31"
   },
   "proposition": "AI scientist systems still aren't adequate, especially at open-ended research, as reported by Narayanan and colleagues."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-seven-most-shambolic-things-that-dbea3a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-seven-most-shambolic-things-that",
    "title": "The seven most shambolic things that happened in AI today.",
    "date": "2026-07-31"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-seven-most-shambolic-things-that-ddbaf8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-seven-most-shambolic-things-that",
    "title": "The seven most shambolic things that happened in AI today.",
    "date": "2026-07-31"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-sparks-of-agi-or-the-end-of-science-76c58f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:36:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-sparks-of-agi-or-the-end-of-science",
    "title": "The Sparks of AGI? Or the End of Science?",
    "date": "2023-03-24"
   },
   "proposition": "The two giant OpenAI and Microsoft papers have been about a model about which absolutely nothing has been revealed, neither the architecture nor the training set."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-sparks-of-agi-or-the-end-of-science-81fda6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:52:21Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-sparks-of-agi-or-the-end-of-science",
    "title": "The Sparks of AGI? Or the End of Science?",
    "date": "2023-03-24"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-sparks-of-agi-or-the-end-of-science-868b0c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:37:14Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e4 is dated 2023-03, which is not inside the period described (2023-03-01 to 2023-03-24); it can only be context; e5 is dated 2023-03, which is not inside the period described (2023-03-01 to 2023-03-24); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-sparks-of-agi-or-the-end-of-science",
    "title": "The Sparks of AGI? Or the End of Science?",
    "date": "2023-03-24"
   },
   "proposition": "Microsoft and OpenAI are rolling out extraordinarily powerful yet unreliable systems with multiple disclosed risks and no clear measure either of their safety or of how to constrain them."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-sparks-of-agi-or-the-end-of-science-b5bd34",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:37:14Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review abstained.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-sparks-of-agi-or-the-end-of-science",
    "title": "The Sparks of AGI? Or the End of Science?",
    "date": "2023-03-24"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's incorporation of user experiments into its training corpus destroys the scientific community's ability to test whether its models generalize to new cases."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-threat-of-automated-misinformation-854758",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:36:37Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-threat-of-automated-misinformation",
    "title": "The threat of automated misinformation is only getting worse",
    "date": "2023-02-28"
   },
   "proposition": "With the right invocations, a bad actor could easily get around Bing's guardrails, using what Oakley describes as \"standard techniques\"."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-truth-about-googles-amazing-new-67ab22",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:37:18Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-truth-about-googles-amazing-new",
    "title": "The truth about Google’s amazing new demo",
    "date": "2023-12-07"
   },
   "proposition": "Gemini will turn out to be roughly in the same ballpark as GPT-4: useful for some things but not grounded in reality."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-truth-about-googles-amazing-new-8a82a4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-truth-about-googles-amazing-new",
    "title": "The truth about Google’s amazing new demo",
    "date": "2023-12-07"
   },
   "proposition": "Google's Gemini demo video was dubbed and edited to look like real-time interaction built from stills, misrepresenting the system."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-two-wildest-stories-today-in-0e1277-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-two-wildest-stories-today-in",
    "title": "The two wildest stories today in tech",
    "date": "2026-04-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-two-wildest-stories-today-in-70bcfe",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:52:25Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: His November 7, 2025 essay described superintelligence as going far beyond human-level performance, providing context for the narrower April framing [e2]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-two-wildest-stories-today-in",
    "title": "The two wildest stories today in tech",
    "date": "2026-04-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-two-wildest-stories-today-in-8f7123-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:36:41Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-two-wildest-stories-today-in",
    "title": "The two wildest stories today in tech",
    "date": "2026-04-03"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI is losing roughly a billion dollars each month in 2026."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-uk-ai-summit-3d3953",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-uk-ai-summit",
    "title": "The UK AI Summit",
    "date": "2023-11-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-uk-ai-summit-41b96d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-uk-ai-summit",
    "title": "The UK AI Summit",
    "date": "2023-11-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-us-and-china-want-different-things-5f01d1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-us-and-china-want-different-things",
    "title": "The US and China want different things, right?",
    "date": "2023-08-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-us-and-china-want-different-things-c2ccf4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:52:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-us-and-china-want-different-things",
    "title": "The US and China want different things, right?",
    "date": "2023-08-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-us-and-china-want-different-things-cb6884-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:36:57Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-us-and-china-want-different-things",
    "title": "The US and China want different things, right?",
    "date": "2023-08-25"
   },
   "proposition": "The AI tools the US is apparently using to surveil its citizens are almost certainly regularly reporting false alarms."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy-1ce7f1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:37:58Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy",
    "title": "The White House’s shambolic AI policy",
    "date": "2026-06-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Until the federal government takes a more comprehensive approach to AI risks, states will have little choice but to file after-the-fact lawsuits against AI companies."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy-792fff",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:37:58Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy",
    "title": "The White House’s shambolic AI policy",
    "date": "2026-06-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy-8510a4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:37:58Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy",
    "title": "The White House’s shambolic AI policy",
    "date": "2026-06-13"
   },
   "proposition": "No industry can thrive if the government appears arbitrary and capricious, as it did last night when it (effectively) abruptly shut down an entire thriving industry and appeared very selective and reactive in its choices."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy-86e558",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy",
    "title": "The White House’s shambolic AI policy",
    "date": "2026-06-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy-f562db",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy",
    "title": "The White House’s shambolic AI policy",
    "date": "2026-06-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy-f638b0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:38:18Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy",
    "title": "The White House’s shambolic AI policy",
    "date": "2026-06-13"
   },
   "proposition": "The government appears to have panicked when Amazon showed it that Anthropic's Fable could be jailbroken, which is naive because essentially every LLM-based system can be jailbroken, and this is not a new problem."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy-fe8f17",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:38:18Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-white-houses-shambolic-ai-policy",
    "title": "The White House’s shambolic AI policy",
    "date": "2026-06-13"
   },
   "proposition": "The vulnerability identified in Anthropic's Fable was not new and likely not specific to Mythos or Fable."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-whole-thing-was-scam-5a6159",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-whole-thing-was-scam",
    "title": "The whole thing was a scam",
    "date": "2026-02-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-whole-thing-was-scam-5ea829",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:53:25Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-whole-thing-was-scam",
    "title": "The whole thing was a scam",
    "date": "2026-02-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-the-whole-thing-was-scam-808a57",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:38:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-whole-thing-was-scam",
    "title": "The whole thing was a scam",
    "date": "2026-02-28"
   },
   "proposition": "On the same day Altman publicly supported Amodei, he signed a government deal on terms not much different from Anthropic's, taking away Anthropic's business."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial-0c0168",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:02Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial",
    "title": "There are no heroes in commercial AI",
    "date": "2026-03-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial-1299d0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:16:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial",
    "title": "There are no heroes in commercial AI",
    "date": "2026-03-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial-23ef2c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial",
    "title": "There are no heroes in commercial AI",
    "date": "2026-03-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial-2e5c34",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial",
    "title": "There are no heroes in commercial AI",
    "date": "2026-03-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial-3e166b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:08Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial",
    "title": "There are no heroes in commercial AI",
    "date": "2026-03-08"
   },
   "proposition": "It is not remotely plausible that AGI, under its original definitions, arrives within the 2-3 years from August 2023 that Amodei predicted."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial-63a87b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:08Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial",
    "title": "There are no heroes in commercial AI",
    "date": "2026-03-08"
   },
   "proposition": "The US defense department was actively using Claude for targeting before and after Amodei's dispute with it, presumably with Anthropic's consent and likely its assistance."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial-7bb04c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:02Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: The September 24, 2026 account describes compressed review and expectations that Maven would detect intelligence problems in the February 28 Minab strike.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial",
    "title": "There are no heroes in commercial AI",
    "date": "2026-03-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial-865247",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:38:51Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e4 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial",
    "title": "There are no heroes in commercial AI",
    "date": "2026-03-08"
   },
   "proposition": "LLM-based agents, which Anthropic profits from, are expensive to run, unreliable and extremely difficult to secure."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial-f89798",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:38:15Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the horizon on 2026-10-28 is open_horizon, not not_due",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/there-are-no-heroes-in-commercial",
    "title": "There are no heroes in commercial AI",
    "date": "2026-03-08"
   },
   "proposition": "AI will not become smarter than Nobel Prize winners across most science and engineering fields as Amodei claimed."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-things-are-about-to-get-a-lot-worse-838708",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/things-are-about-to-get-a-lot-worse",
    "title": "Things are about to get a lot worse for Generative AI",
    "date": "2023-12-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-things-are-about-to-get-a-lot-worse-fab65d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:52:53Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/things-are-about-to-get-a-lot-worse",
    "title": "Things are about to get a lot worse for Generative AI",
    "date": "2023-12-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-things-are-so-desperate-at-openai-0770fc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/things-are-so-desperate-at-openai",
    "title": "Things are so desperate at OpenAI that Sam Altman is starting to sound like Gary Marcus",
    "date": "2025-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-things-are-so-desperate-at-openai-14c5bc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/things-are-so-desperate-at-openai",
    "title": "Things are so desperate at OpenAI that Sam Altman is starting to sound like Gary Marcus",
    "date": "2025-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-things-are-so-desperate-at-openai-6ece11",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/things-are-so-desperate-at-openai",
    "title": "Things are so desperate at OpenAI that Sam Altman is starting to sound like Gary Marcus",
    "date": "2025-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-things-are-so-desperate-at-openai-bf9d3b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/things-are-so-desperate-at-openai",
    "title": "Things are so desperate at OpenAI that Sam Altman is starting to sound like Gary Marcus",
    "date": "2025-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 was finally released, and it was an immense disappointment."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-7cfe28",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:38:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e3 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/this-one-important-fact-about-current",
    "title": "This one important fact about current AI explains almost everything",
    "date": "2024-08-01"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs often get large multiplication problems wrong because those problems are effectively outliers relative to their training data."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-d4d5f8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:38:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: On reflection, this forecast lacks a stable outcome to check..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/this-one-important-fact-about-current",
    "title": "This one important fact about current AI explains almost everything",
    "date": "2024-08-01"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-this-one-weird-trick-might-cost-your-c5c989-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/this-one-weird-trick-might-cost-your",
    "title": "This one weird trick might cost your retirement fund billions",
    "date": "2026-05-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-this-week-in-ai-doublespeak-01cf93",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/this-week-in-ai-doublespeak",
    "title": "This Week in AI Doublespeak",
    "date": "2023-03-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-this-week-in-ai-doublespeak-7f68c2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:52:54Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/this-week-in-ai-doublespeak",
    "title": "This Week in AI Doublespeak",
    "date": "2023-03-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-0344c3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:13Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "DALL-E Mini does not seem to grasp ellipsis, comparatives or pronouns, which children learn easily."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-03f57e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:13Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e7 is dated 2022-06, which is not inside the period described (2022-01-01 to 2022-06-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Systems like DALL-E clearly struggle with compositionality."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-061bee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:13Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "The authors see no reason to think that current large language models encode stable representations of the world at all, and say that all these models are literally doing is predicting the next words in sentences."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-06d412",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:13Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-36fd64",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:35Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Large language models do not produce cognitive models of the world, at least none that anyone has been able to use reliably."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-39b53d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:35Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "The authors suggest that all the attention placed on predicting sequences of words has come at the expense of developing a theory of how such processes might culminate in cognitive models of the world."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-612dd3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:09Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Asked for a blue cube on a red cube, DALL-E puts the red cube on top about as often as not, losing the relation between the parts."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-638e77",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:09Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Because GPT-3's words do not refer to the world or an updatable cognitive model, it tends to fabricate misinformation, and this is hard to fix."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-83e6ae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:51Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "The large language model approach ignores the linguistics and cognitive psychology research on models of meaning."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-9a6cc3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:51Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Current AI systems do not really build cognitive models of the kind humans use to understand stories and the world."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-bdbfbb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:14Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": "The internal states visited by current neural network systems that cluster similar sentences, as in Piantadosi's argument, are pretty but lack reference and lack ties to dynamically updated cognitive models."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-ideas-from-linguistics-that-f9030d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:39:34Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-ideas-from-linguistics-that",
    "title": "Three ideas from linguistics that everyone in AI should know",
    "date": "2022-06-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-reactions-to-anthropicss-latest-e688b2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-reactions-to-anthropicss-latest",
    "title": "Three reactions to Anthropics’s latest apologia",
    "date": "2026-07-31"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-reasons-to-think-that-the-claude-7227c2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-reasons-to-think-that-the-claude",
    "title": "Three reasons to think that the Claude Mythos announcement from Anthropic was overblown",
    "date": "2026-04-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-reasons-to-think-that-the-claude-9d4ba5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-reasons-to-think-that-the-claude",
    "title": "Three reasons to think that the Claude Mythos announcement from Anthropic was overblown",
    "date": "2026-04-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-reasons-to-think-that-the-claude-cd7207",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:01Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-reasons-to-think-that-the-claude",
    "title": "Three reasons to think that the Claude Mythos announcement from Anthropic was overblown",
    "date": "2026-04-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-thoughts-on-the-musk-openai-537268",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:16Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-thoughts-on-the-musk-openai",
    "title": "Three thoughts on the Musk-OpenAI lawsuit",
    "date": "2026-04-29"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI benefited from its nonprofit claim in recruiting, fundraising and reputation from Musk, tax-exempt status, and other ways."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-thoughts-on-the-musk-openai-82df88",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:16Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-thoughts-on-the-musk-openai",
    "title": "Three thoughts on the Musk-OpenAI lawsuit",
    "date": "2026-04-29"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI repeatedly promised in legal documents and public statements to be a nonprofit for the benefit of humanity and then broke that promise."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-1194ef",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-38a416",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:41:14Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 is dated 2025, which is not inside the period described (2022-11-29 to 2025-11-29); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 has not solved the core LLM problems, as many people imagined it would; had it done so, it would be of enormous economic value."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-38c2bf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:41:14Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Census Bureau data already shows signs of generative AI demand tapering off, which is not consistent with a genuine exponential."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-3e24b5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:55:07Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-441a3d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-47a4e7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:18Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Google, with Gemini 3, appears to have overtaken OpenAI in the last month, beating GPT-5 on many benchmarks."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-5290a9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-61dcb2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:41:35Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs have become a commodity, profits outside Nvidia are scarce, and OpenAI is losing billions of dollars a month."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-642605",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-9711be",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:41:01Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": "So far as Marcus knows, even the latest language models are still powerful but hard to control, still can't reason reliably, still don't work reliably with external tools, continue to hallucinate, still can't match domain-specific models, and continue to struggle with alignment."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-9c214a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:41:01Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025, which is not inside the period described (2022-11-29 to 2025-11-29); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Across hundreds of LLMs, the same failure modes always appear, a pattern Marcus calls astonishingly clear."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-9d75bb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT obviously lacks the reliability of calculators, and its hallucinations and occasional bizarre errors should be shocking given that, unlike seven-year-olds, LLMs have swallowed the entire internet."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-b9adbc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:41:56Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025, which is not inside the period described (2022-11-30 to 2025-11-29); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 is more impressive than the original ChatGPT (GPT-3.5), the latest models have more utility, and LLMs have certainly come a long way."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-bbd8e9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:41:56Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Amateurs can build prototypes with AI coding, but the generated code tends to be shaky and few can make it robust."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-e8c19e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Because you never know what ChatGPT will produce, you can never really trust it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-f4034a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:40:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt",
    "title": "Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be",
    "date": "2025-11-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Scaling has not come close to solving the reliability, world-understanding and hallucination problems of ChatGPT."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-openai-is-probably-14e39b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-openai-is-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons OpenAI is probably not worth 90 billion dollars",
    "date": "2023-09-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-openai-is-probably-6b9946",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-09-27); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-openai-is-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons OpenAI is probably not worth 90 billion dollars",
    "date": "2023-09-27"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT cannot be trusted to follow the rules of chess despite those rules being in its training data."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-openai-is-probably-95dd08",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-09-27); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-openai-is-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons OpenAI is probably not worth 90 billion dollars",
    "date": "2023-09-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Big customers are still skittish about LLMs: JP Morgan, Apple, and others ban their use at least partly over concerns about data leaks, and reliability is also a problem."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement-326978",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:57Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e6 is dated 2022-09, which is not inside the period described (2014-01-01 to 2022-09-29); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons Tesla’s Optimus announcement may turn out be a dud",
    "date": "2022-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Tesla's driverless car project, promised nearly yearly since 2014, is still in beta and is not really a driverless car, as it requires constant driver attention."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement-381b5b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons Tesla’s Optimus announcement may turn out be a dud",
    "date": "2022-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement-6bbaee",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons Tesla’s Optimus announcement may turn out be a dud",
    "date": "2022-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement-c0443c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:57Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons Tesla’s Optimus announcement may turn out be a dud",
    "date": "2022-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI apparently shut down its Rubik's cube robotics effort in 2021 without ever shipping anything resembling a product."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement-f0f352-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-teslas-optimus-announcement",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons Tesla’s Optimus announcement may turn out be a dud",
    "date": "2022-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably-40f25c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons why OpenAI was probably never really worth $86 billion",
    "date": "2023-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably-6af3d9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons why OpenAI was probably never really worth $86 billion",
    "date": "2023-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably-703bc7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:47Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons why OpenAI was probably never really worth $86 billion",
    "date": "2023-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's 2023 revenue of $1-2B has unclear profit, and few companies testing LLMs were using them in production."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably-82586a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:43Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons why OpenAI was probably never really worth $86 billion",
    "date": "2023-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably-8bac5b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons why OpenAI was probably never really worth $86 billion",
    "date": "2023-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably-aeaddb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons why OpenAI was probably never really worth $86 billion",
    "date": "2023-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI is a company with no obvious moat, modest revenue relative to its valuation, and a sky-high valuation above more established companies like FedEx, Airbnb and Colgate-Palmolive, all built on a promise that always seemed to Marcus not to be realistic."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably-b25589",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:43Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 is dated 2023-11, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-11-22); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons why OpenAI was probably never really worth $86 billion",
    "date": "2023-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Elon Musk's Grok replicated much, though not all, of what OpenAI had done in a few months, and Kai-Fu Lee's new company replicated a lot of it in less than a year."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably-be4c65",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:42:43Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons why OpenAI was probably never really worth $86 billion",
    "date": "2023-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI still has no clear business model and systems like GPT-4 remain expensive to run."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably-fc511a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:57Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/top-5-reasons-why-openai-was-probably",
    "title": "Top 5 reasons why OpenAI was probably never really worth $86 billion",
    "date": "2023-11-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam-42f7e4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:03Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam",
    "title": "Turns out Generative AI was a scam",
    "date": "2026-02-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI is ripping apart the educational system and the information ecosphere and is flooding the zone with nonconsensual deepfake porn."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam-446f8c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:41Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e2 is dated 2026-02, which is not inside the period described (2021-02-23 to 2026-02-23); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam",
    "title": "Turns out Generative AI was a scam",
    "date": "2026-02-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI has been inherently unreliable from the start and none of the problems Marcus warned about in the last five years has been properly solved."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam-758d9f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam",
    "title": "Turns out Generative AI was a scam",
    "date": "2026-02-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam-7e44f0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam",
    "title": "Turns out Generative AI was a scam",
    "date": "2026-02-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam-955997",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:11Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam",
    "title": "Turns out Generative AI was a scam",
    "date": "2026-02-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI is threatening the environment through data centers built on too much speculation."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam-dde00e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:11Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam",
    "title": "Turns out Generative AI was a scam",
    "date": "2026-02-23"
   },
   "proposition": "A recent survey, the Remote Labor Index, found that large language models could do only 2.5% of human tasks, and Marcus says that figure is a massive overestimate because everything requiring physical labor was excluded."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam-eb2a3c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2026-02, which is not inside the period described (2026-02-01 to 2026-02-23); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2026-02, which is not inside the period described (2026-02-01 to 2026-02-23); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam",
    "title": "Turns out Generative AI was a scam",
    "date": "2026-02-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Large language models still hallucinate, make boneheaded errors, and lack a proper concept of reality."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam-fdf6b2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scam",
    "title": "Turns out Generative AI was a scam",
    "date": "2026-02-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-critical-updates-re-astra-and-00a6ae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-critical-updates-re-astra-and",
    "title": "Two critical updates re: Astra and mathematics",
    "date": "2026-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": "One Anthropic researcher was able to \"replicate\" (in scare quotes, as best he could given OpenAI's very sparse report of what it did) half of OpenAI's Astra results within 24 hours, using the already publicly released Fable rather than Astra or another new model."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-critical-updates-re-astra-and-14ba8c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:22Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-critical-updates-re-astra-and",
    "title": "Two critical updates re: Astra and mathematics",
    "date": "2026-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Astra seems strong at solving open problems, perhaps with some important limits, but there is no evidence thus far that Astra can build mathematical theory."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-critical-updates-re-astra-and-2cf9eb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-critical-updates-re-astra-and",
    "title": "Two critical updates re: Astra and mathematics",
    "date": "2026-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-critical-updates-re-astra-and-4d4025",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-critical-updates-re-astra-and",
    "title": "Two critical updates re: Astra and mathematics",
    "date": "2026-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-critical-updates-re-astra-and-d92610",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-critical-updates-re-astra-and",
    "title": "Two critical updates re: Astra and mathematics",
    "date": "2026-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-critical-updates-re-astra-and-f1f1cc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-critical-updates-re-astra-and",
    "title": "Two critical updates re: Astra and mathematics",
    "date": "2026-08-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-frightening-things-before-breakfast-0e23b0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:49Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-frightening-things-before-breakfast",
    "title": "Two frightening things before breakfast",
    "date": "2023-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-frightening-things-before-breakfast-2e0b22",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-frightening-things-before-breakfast",
    "title": "Two frightening things before breakfast",
    "date": "2023-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-frightening-things-before-breakfast-569c6c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:43:49Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-frightening-things-before-breakfast",
    "title": "Two frightening things before breakfast",
    "date": "2023-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT's political outputs are a stochastic function of the training corpus it parrots."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-frightening-things-before-breakfast-590416",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-frightening-things-before-breakfast",
    "title": "Two frightening things before breakfast",
    "date": "2023-02-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-models-of-ai-oversight-and-how-1e2674",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:44:16Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023-01, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-23 to 2023-06-08); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-models-of-ai-oversight-and-how",
    "title": "Two models of AI oversight - and how things could go deeply wrong",
    "date": "2023-06-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Microsoft reportedly has access to all OpenAI models and can race forward with them regardless of Altman's concerns."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-models-of-ai-oversight-and-how-ced689",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-models-of-ai-oversight-and-how",
    "title": "Two models of AI oversight - and how things could go deeply wrong",
    "date": "2023-06-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-nobel-prizes-for-ai-and-two-paths-0f5180",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:44:12Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-nobel-prizes-for-ai-and-two-paths",
    "title": "Two Nobel Prizes for AI, and Two Paths Forward",
    "date": "2024-10-09"
   },
   "proposition": "Hinton did not invent back-propagation, even though the Nobel citation seems to say he won for it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-nobel-prizes-for-ai-and-two-paths-27d412",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-nobel-prizes-for-ai-and-two-paths",
    "title": "Two Nobel Prizes for AI, and Two Paths Forward",
    "date": "2024-10-09"
   },
   "proposition": "AlphaFold2 does not go directly from sequence to 3D structure with a single massive neural network, as the end-to-end tradition might attempt. It is considerably more structured, with a custom-built neural network embedded in quite a lot of classical symbolic machinery for information integration and search tools."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-nobel-prizes-for-ai-and-two-paths-579505",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:44:12Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-nobel-prizes-for-ai-and-two-paths",
    "title": "Two Nobel Prizes for AI, and Two Paths Forward",
    "date": "2024-10-09"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as Marcus can tell, the AlphaFold chemistry Nobel is the first Nobel Prize for neurosymbolic AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-nobel-prizes-for-ai-and-two-paths-5c4b69",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:44:12Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e4 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-10-09); it can only be context; e5 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-10-09); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-nobel-prizes-for-ai-and-two-paths",
    "title": "Two Nobel Prizes for AI, and Two Paths Forward",
    "date": "2024-10-09"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs remain opaque, plagued by hallucinations and bone-headed errors, and extremely greedy for electricity, water, and data."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-nobel-prizes-for-ai-and-two-paths-b73323",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:44:12Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-nobel-prizes-for-ai-and-two-paths",
    "title": "Two Nobel Prizes for AI, and Two Paths Forward",
    "date": "2024-10-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-takes-on-ai-and-the-future-of-6e7e4f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:45:01Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025-12, which is not inside the period described (2025-10-01 to 2025-12-23); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-takes-on-ai-and-the-future-of",
    "title": "Two takes on AI and the future of America",
    "date": "2025-12-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Salesforce is retreating from its enthusiasm for LLMs, warning they are not trustworthy."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-takes-on-ai-and-the-future-of-b3281a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:45:01Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-takes-on-ai-and-the-future-of",
    "title": "Two takes on AI and the future of America",
    "date": "2025-12-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Silicon Valley and the White House appear to be betting heavily on LLMs leading to AGI and a redefined economy."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-visions-of-ais-future-7f3ec8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-visions-of-ais-future",
    "title": "Two visions of AI’s future",
    "date": "2024-12-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history-0c1c79",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:44:56Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history",
    "title": "Two Years Ago Today in AI History: The Tale of An About-face in AI Regulation",
    "date": "2025-05-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Republicans as a whole are far more resistant to AI regulation in 2025 than they were in 2023, and voices like Josh Hawley, who seemed sincerely interested in how to regulate AI, are now drowned out by the administration's across-the-board anti-regulatory turn."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history-384068",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:45:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history",
    "title": "Two Years Ago Today in AI History: The Tale of An About-face in AI Regulation",
    "date": "2025-05-16"
   },
   "proposition": "When Sam Altman returned to the Senate the week before this May 16, 2025 post, he sang an entirely different tune from 2023, effectively trying to block AI regulation at every turn, and he is no longer talking about AI regulation but actively resisting it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history-3f2e45",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history",
    "title": "Two Years Ago Today in AI History: The Tale of An About-face in AI Regulation",
    "date": "2025-05-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history-4f68cb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:04Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history",
    "title": "Two Years Ago Today in AI History: The Tale of An About-face in AI Regulation",
    "date": "2025-05-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history-76829e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history",
    "title": "Two Years Ago Today in AI History: The Tale of An About-face in AI Regulation",
    "date": "2025-05-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history-8f961d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-ago-today-in-ai-history",
    "title": "Two Years Ago Today in AI History: The Tale of An About-face in AI Regulation",
    "date": "2025-05-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-031f1b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-later-deep-learning-is",
    "title": "Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges",
    "date": "2024-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": "Although it is still early days, domestic humanoid robots are certainly not expected to be a big business for anyone in the near term."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-adbcc9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-later-deep-learning-is",
    "title": "Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges",
    "date": "2024-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-bb65d6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-later-deep-learning-is",
    "title": "Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges",
    "date": "2024-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-bd0437",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-later-deep-learning-is",
    "title": "Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges",
    "date": "2024-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-two-years-later-deep-learning-is-e3ce3f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-later-deep-learning-is",
    "title": "Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges",
    "date": "2024-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-unwoven-f9a60a-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/unwoven",
    "title": "Unwoven",
    "date": "2025-03-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-urgent-warning-black-mirror-has-entered-0ed891",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:55:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-black-mirror-has-entered",
    "title": "Urgent warning: Black Mirror has entered the United States, with AI as its handmaiden",
    "date": "2025-03-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-we-interrupt-this-programming-2bdec0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/we-interrupt-this-programming",
    "title": "We interrupt this programming",
    "date": "2023-12-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-we-must-recall-open-ended-ai-agents-b085f0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/we-must-recall-open-ended-ai-agents",
    "title": "We must recall open-ended AI agents with internet access from the market, now",
    "date": "2026-10-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-we-urgently-need-a-federal-law-forbidding-c772df",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:45:09Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/we-urgently-need-a-federal-law-forbidding",
    "title": "We URGENTLY need a federal law forbidding AI from impersonating humans",
    "date": "2026-02-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Because counterfeiting tools have become so good, 2026 will almost certainly see more deepfaked scams like the deepfaked-video impersonation scam he described than the rest of history combined."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-could-possibly-go-wrong-with-204c35",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:45:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-with",
    "title": "What Could Possibly Go Wrong with Sam Altman’s New Ambitions?",
    "date": "2024-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-could-possibly-go-wrong-with-5f85bb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-with",
    "title": "What Could Possibly Go Wrong with Sam Altman’s New Ambitions?",
    "date": "2024-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-could-possibly-go-wrong-with-637899",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:55:46Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-with",
    "title": "What Could Possibly Go Wrong with Sam Altman’s New Ambitions?",
    "date": "2024-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-could-possibly-go-wrong-with-6b4c1c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:45:36Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-with",
    "title": "What Could Possibly Go Wrong with Sam Altman’s New Ambitions?",
    "date": "2024-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-could-possibly-go-wrong-with-796e20",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:45:36Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-with",
    "title": "What Could Possibly Go Wrong with Sam Altman’s New Ambitions?",
    "date": "2024-02-09"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-did-they-know-and-when-did-they-09a79b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:45:36Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023-02, which is not inside the period described (2023-02-01 to 2023-02-21); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-did-they-know-and-when-did-they",
    "title": "What did they know, and when did they know it? The Microsoft Bing edition.",
    "date": "2023-02-21"
   },
   "proposition": "Microsoft's Bing chatbot can behave in badly unhinged, off-the-rails ways."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-did-they-know-and-when-did-they-bf906c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-did-they-know-and-when-did-they",
    "title": "What did they know, and when did they know it? The Microsoft Bing edition.",
    "date": "2023-02-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-did-they-know-and-when-did-they-d0b3c5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-did-they-know-and-when-did-they",
    "title": "What did they know, and when did they know it? The Microsoft Bing edition.",
    "date": "2023-02-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-did-they-know-and-when-did-they-f05abb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:45:36Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 is dated 2023-02, which is not inside the period described (2022-12-05 to 2023-02-21); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-did-they-know-and-when-did-they",
    "title": "What did they know, and when did they know it? The Microsoft Bing edition.",
    "date": "2023-02-21"
   },
   "proposition": "User reports on Microsoft's site from December 2022 already showed Bing chat gaslighting and using passive-aggressive emoticons, the same behavior widely reported in February 2023."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-does-it-mean-when-an-ai-fails-204104",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-does-it-mean-when-an-ai-fails",
    "title": "What does it mean when an AI fails? A Reply to SlateStarCodex’s riff on Gary Marcus",
    "date": "2022-06-07"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-does-it-mean-when-an-ai-fails-6f4194",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-does-it-mean-when-an-ai-fails",
    "title": "What does it mean when an AI fails? A Reply to SlateStarCodex’s riff on Gary Marcus",
    "date": "2022-06-07"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus says that he and Davis have been able to analyze these AI systems at all only because of the kindness of strangers, in an era when, he says, big corporations pretend to do public science but refuse to share their work."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning-03d397",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning",
    "title": "What does Meta AI’s Diplomacy-winning Cicero Mean for AI?",
    "date": "2022-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning-28afe3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning",
    "title": "What does Meta AI’s Diplomacy-winning Cicero Mean for AI?",
    "date": "2022-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning-4362a5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning",
    "title": "What does Meta AI’s Diplomacy-winning Cicero Mean for AI?",
    "date": "2022-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning-8cdffa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:00Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning",
    "title": "What does Meta AI’s Diplomacy-winning Cicero Mean for AI?",
    "date": "2022-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning-aa6ed7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:46:23Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning",
    "title": "What does Meta AI’s Diplomacy-winning Cicero Mean for AI?",
    "date": "2022-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning-d9349d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:46:23Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-does-meta-ais-diplomacy-winning",
    "title": "What does Meta AI’s Diplomacy-winning Cicero Mean for AI?",
    "date": "2022-11-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-exactly-are-the-economics-of-017c1b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:47:27Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-exactly-are-the-economics-of",
    "title": "What exactly are the economics of AI?",
    "date": "2023-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Most of the basic generative AI technology is well understood and to a large degree readily copyable, and it is not clear that any commercial company, such as OpenAI, has a durable moat to keep competitors out."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-exactly-are-the-economics-of-1a6ff1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:47:27Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-08-14); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-08-14); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-exactly-are-the-economics-of",
    "title": "What exactly are the economics of AI?",
    "date": "2023-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": "AI works well for some uses like ads and coding but is not reliable enough for many others such as autonomous driving, medical diagnosis, and chat-style search."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-exactly-are-the-economics-of-46a432",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:47:27Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-exactly-are-the-economics-of",
    "title": "What exactly are the economics of AI?",
    "date": "2023-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Current revenue for OpenAI and generative AI appears modest, perhaps roughly in the ballpark of operating costs but not far beyond them; apart from chat-style search, which doesn't (yet?) work well, no killer app has yet emerged; and investors will not be infinitely patient."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-exactly-are-the-economics-of-474ddd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-exactly-are-the-economics-of",
    "title": "What exactly are the economics of AI?",
    "date": "2023-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-exactly-are-the-economics-of-843ad8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:46:04Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-exactly-are-the-economics-of",
    "title": "What exactly are the economics of AI?",
    "date": "2023-08-14"
   },
   "proposition": "As of August 2023, generative AI has made perhaps hundreds of millions of dollars, probably not billions, and certainly not hundreds of billions."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-game-over-for-the-latest-paradigm-693075",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:46:46Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-game-over-for-the-latest-paradigm",
    "title": "What “game over” for the latest paradigm in AI might look like",
    "date": "2022-10-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Gains on some measures over months or years do not show that scale is all AI needs."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-google-should-really-be-worried-2777b1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-google-should-really-be-worried",
    "title": "What Google Should Really Be Worried About",
    "date": "2023-02-12"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs aren't very good at writing error-free prose, but the people who run content farms won't care about the errors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-google-should-really-be-worried-6eb7c7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:46:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-google-should-really-be-worried",
    "title": "What Google Should Really Be Worried About",
    "date": "2023-02-12"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs make content-farm text that used to be laboriously human-written cheap and therefore more widespread."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-if-generative-ai-turned-out-25f062",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-if-generative-ai-turned-out",
    "title": "What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud?",
    "date": "2023-08-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-if-generative-ai-turned-out-26c457",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:47:55Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-if-generative-ai-turned-out",
    "title": "What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud?",
    "date": "2023-08-13"
   },
   "proposition": "AGI is unlikely to arrive in the near term, e.g. within 2-3 years as Dario Amodei projected."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-if-generative-ai-turned-out-5e1337",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:47:51Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-if-generative-ai-turned-out",
    "title": "What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud?",
    "date": "2023-08-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI valuations assume trillion-dollar markets while current revenues are reportedly only in the hundreds of millions."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-if-generative-ai-turned-out-6882fa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:47:51Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-if-generative-ai-turned-out",
    "title": "What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud?",
    "date": "2023-08-13"
   },
   "proposition": "Undergraduates will continue to use generative AI, but their pockets aren't deep and they will most likely turn to open-source competitors."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-if-generative-ai-turned-out-8a711e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:37Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-if-generative-ai-turned-out",
    "title": "What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud?",
    "date": "2023-08-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-if-generative-ai-turned-out-cc9d57",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:48:00Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-if-generative-ai-turned-out",
    "title": "What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud?",
    "date": "2023-08-13"
   },
   "proposition": "In Marcus's view, almost everyone is making the fundamental error of believing that generative AI is tantamount to AGI (general-purpose AI as smart and resourceful as humans, if not more so)."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-if-gpt-5-didnt-meet-expectations-5e36b2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-if-gpt-5-didnt-meet-expectations",
    "title": "What if GPT-5 didn’t meet expectations?",
    "date": "2023-10-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-matters-or-should-matter-at-69f008",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-matters-or-should-matter-at",
    "title": "What matters (or should matter), at the Musk-OpenAI trial",
    "date": "2026-05-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-matters-or-should-matter-at-bdcf36",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:47:38Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the conclusive event e6 is not outcome evidence in the packet",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-matters-or-should-matter-at",
    "title": "What matters (or should matter), at the Musk-OpenAI trial",
    "date": "2026-05-05"
   },
   "proposition": "As the trial goes on, neither OpenAI nor Musk will come off well, with each side's lawyers continuing to stress the other's flaws or deceit."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-matters-or-should-matter-at-fa47fe",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:47:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-matters-or-should-matter-at",
    "title": "What matters (or should matter), at the Musk-OpenAI trial",
    "date": "2026-05-05"
   },
   "proposition": "In Marcus's view, by vividly explaining, without a trace of remorse, how he deceived Musk about his commitment to the nonprofit, Brockman has done Musk's counsel a huge favor."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy-27c6ae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy",
    "title": "What scaling does and doesn’t buy you: peeling back the hype surrounding Google‘s trendy Nano Banana",
    "date": "2025-08-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy-6e9cb7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy",
    "title": "What scaling does and doesn’t buy you: peeling back the hype surrounding Google‘s trendy Nano Banana",
    "date": "2025-08-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy-7092b4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy",
    "title": "What scaling does and doesn’t buy you: peeling back the hype surrounding Google‘s trendy Nano Banana",
    "date": "2025-08-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy-80b302",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy",
    "title": "What scaling does and doesn’t buy you: peeling back the hype surrounding Google‘s trendy Nano Banana",
    "date": "2025-08-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy-fc009e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy",
    "title": "What scaling does and doesn’t buy you: peeling back the hype surrounding Google‘s trendy Nano Banana",
    "date": "2025-08-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-should-we-learn-from-openais-8db22b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-should-we-learn-from-openais",
    "title": "What should we learn from OpenAI’s mistakes and broken promises?",
    "date": "2024-05-26"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-should-we-take-from-anthropics-cb332c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:55Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: The investigation attributes the fatal Mountain View crash partly to Autopilot steering outside the travel lane because of vision-processing limitations, alongside driver distraction and ineffective engagement monitoring..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-should-we-take-from-anthropics",
    "title": "What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?",
    "date": "2026-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-should-we-take-from-anthropics-cc054d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:48:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e9 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-should-we-take-from-anthropics",
    "title": "What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?",
    "date": "2026-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Competing systems similar to Mythos will follow."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-119f96",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:48:46Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4",
    "date": "2022-12-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-171d30",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the conclusive event's date differs from its evidence",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4",
    "date": "2022-12-25"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-4's reasoning about physical, psychological and mathematical worlds will remain unreliable."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-3868af",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the conclusive event's date differs from its evidence",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4",
    "date": "2022-12-25"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-4 will still commonly and easily hallucinate, escalating the risk of LLM-generated misinformation."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-4d83b4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:48:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4",
    "date": "2022-12-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-1335b1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: METR's July 2025 evaluation, published August 7, found more bugs and fewer completed features on a small set of naturally specified product tasks; it did not separate misunderstood intent from execution failures [e2]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-173b9e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:49:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/conclusive_event/supported, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 will be a lot better than GPT-4 and will totally eclipse it, blowing minds."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-2b6f70",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:17Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-3868af",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:49:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The openai review does not accept e2 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5's fluent hallucinations will remain common and easily induced, escalating the risk of LLMs being used for misinformation."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-3a4fdc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:21Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-488add",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:23Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. \"likely\" is hedged or probabilistic; one outcome does not score it; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus thinks that this time GPT-5 really is about to be released."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-6a17e4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:23Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 will make a significant number of stupid errors in hard-to-predict ways."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-6fc5cf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:22Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/conclusive_event/supported, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5's reasoning about physical, psychological and mathematical worlds will remain unreliable; it will solve many prior benchmark items but still get tripped up, especially in longer, complex scenarios."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-b2e16c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-c9e809",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:12Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/conclusive_event/supported, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Some of GPT-5's advice will be very bad."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-eff808",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:12Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e4 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5",
    "date": "2025-07-27"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-5 will remain a pastiche generator useful for brainstorming and first drafts but not trustworthy general intelligence."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-797225",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4",
    "date": "2022-12-25"
   },
   "proposition": "ChatGPT has guardrails in place now, but sometimes those guardrails are poor."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-79c713",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:22Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the conclusive event's date differs from its evidence",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4",
    "date": "2022-12-25"
   },
   "proposition": "GPT-4 will not be trustworthy and complete enough to give reliable medical advice, despite having absorbed a large fraction of the Internet."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-a70743",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:48:44Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/elapsed/supported, openai forecast_outcome/conclusive_event/supported.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4",
    "date": "2022-12-25"
   },
   "proposition": "Examples of concealed bias in GPT-4 will be discovered within days or months of release."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-c4ae6c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:02Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4",
    "date": "2022-12-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-d47c7c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:02Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting",
    "title": "What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4",
    "date": "2022-12-25"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that-3942bb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:21Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that",
    "title": "What was 60 Minutes thinking, in that interview with Geoff Hinton?",
    "date": "2023-10-10"
   },
   "proposition": "AI does not grasp the big picture as human radiologists do; it is better at vision than at understanding case files."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that-4f7956",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:47:39Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that",
    "title": "What was 60 Minutes thinking, in that interview with Geoff Hinton?",
    "date": "2023-10-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that-565dc4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that",
    "title": "What was 60 Minutes thinking, in that interview with Geoff Hinton?",
    "date": "2023-10-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that-624b13",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:48Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/not_applicable/mixed, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/supported.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that",
    "title": "What was 60 Minutes thinking, in that interview with Geoff Hinton?",
    "date": "2023-10-10"
   },
   "proposition": "The unpredictability of current AI makes engineering with it exceptionally hard and is one reason some companies are cautious about using it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that-6442a3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:48Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that",
    "title": "What was 60 Minutes thinking, in that interview with Geoff Hinton?",
    "date": "2023-10-10"
   },
   "proposition": "The AI systems Hinton says 'work well' still cannot be trusted, make random mistakes, and have no basis in factuality, so calling them 'working well' is tendentious."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that-8993da",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:50Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that",
    "title": "What was 60 Minutes thinking, in that interview with Geoff Hinton?",
    "date": "2023-10-10"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that-94d972",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:50Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (… to 2023-10-10); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (… to 2023-10-10); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that",
    "title": "What was 60 Minutes thinking, in that interview with Geoff Hinton?",
    "date": "2023-10-10"
   },
   "proposition": "In medical imaging, the best results still come from combining machine vision with human understanding."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that-b5c245",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:52Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that",
    "title": "What was 60 Minutes thinking, in that interview with Geoff Hinton?",
    "date": "2023-10-10"
   },
   "proposition": "Current generative AI systems do not really understand what they say and cannot reliably reason flexibly about novel things."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that-c9e0ae",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:50:52Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (… to 2023-10-10); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (… to 2023-10-10); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-was-60-minutes-thinking-in-that",
    "title": "What was 60 Minutes thinking, in that interview with Geoff Hinton?",
    "date": "2023-10-10"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as Marcus knows, AI has so far produced only candidate drugs, none yet proven to work."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-washington-must-do-0789ba",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:51:43Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-washington-must-do",
    "title": "What Washington must do",
    "date": "2026-06-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Anthropic certainly played a role in the situation, both by overhyping Mythos and by alienating the White House."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-washington-must-do-ea664a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-washington-must-do",
    "title": "What Washington must do",
    "date": "2026-06-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-what-washington-must-do-f9db3f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:51:43Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-washington-must-do",
    "title": "What Washington must do",
    "date": "2026-06-14"
   },
   "proposition": "The White House's Friday decision benefited OpenAI, whose president Greg Brockman is a major Trump donor."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-whats-wrong-with-googles-new-robot-202282",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:51:21Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/whats-wrong-with-googles-new-robot",
    "title": "What’s wrong with Google’s new robot project",
    "date": "2022-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": "No one, including Elon Musk, should hold their breath expecting systems like PaLM-SayCan's vision, robots we can talk to that help with everyday chores, to appear in reliable form in the next several years."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-whats-wrong-with-googles-new-robot-55d126",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:47:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/whats-wrong-with-googles-new-robot",
    "title": "What’s wrong with Google’s new robot project",
    "date": "2022-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": "On some actions PaLM-SayCan executed correctly 0% of the time, which is inadequate for a household robot."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-19d52b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:51:38Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the conclusive event e1 is not outcome evidence in the packet",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress",
    "title": "When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees",
    "date": "2025-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": "If enacted, the proposed federal law would automatically block state deepfake and AI accountability laws without offering any alternative."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-4d6d84",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress",
    "title": "When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees",
    "date": "2025-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": "If the preemption provision is enacted, its defenders will claim that AI is part of interstate commerce, and years of lawsuits will follow."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-5c747d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:47:37Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress",
    "title": "When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees",
    "date": "2025-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-678753",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:47:37Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. mixed needs a supporting and a contradicting item of outcome evidence",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress",
    "title": "When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees",
    "date": "2025-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": "The US has essentially no enduring federal AI law, only executive orders, and Washington has failed to regulate AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-69cd67",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:52:14Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress",
    "title": "When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees",
    "date": "2025-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-7ad22c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress",
    "title": "When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees",
    "date": "2025-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-7fc11e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:53:37Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress",
    "title": "When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees",
    "date": "2025-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Any proposed AI regulation will be absorbed as a cost of business, which is trivial for trillion-dollar companies, and there is no serious argument that the relatively modest costs of regulation will have any real-world impact on the likely tied outcomes of the US-China AI race."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-84464d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:53:37Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 is dated 2025-05, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2025-05-14); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress",
    "title": "When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees",
    "date": "2025-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": "China has far more national AI regulation than the US, and this has not stopped it from catching up."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-d913de",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:53:37Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress",
    "title": "When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees",
    "date": "2025-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-e7e05c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:52:10Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress",
    "title": "When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees",
    "date": "2025-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Any national advantage in generative AI will be minimal and short-lasting."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress-e7e05c-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:52:10Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-it-comes-to-ai-policy-congress",
    "title": "When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees",
    "date": "2025-05-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI has not remotely made a net profit and remains speculative."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-looked-at-carefully-openais-04e71c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:47:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-looked-at-carefully-openais",
    "title": "Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons",
    "date": "2024-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-looked-at-carefully-openais-4524b4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-looked-at-carefully-openais",
    "title": "Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons",
    "date": "2024-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-looked-at-carefully-openais-7298d7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:53:13Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-looked-at-carefully-openais",
    "title": "Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons",
    "date": "2024-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-looked-at-carefully-openais-7624ca",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:53:13Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-looked-at-carefully-openais",
    "title": "Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons",
    "date": "2024-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": "In OpenAI's study the overall effect is sizeable: experts gained a .88 point lift on average across five measures on a 0-to-10 scale."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-looked-at-carefully-openais-abc924",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-looked-at-carefully-openais",
    "title": "Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons",
    "date": "2024-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-looked-at-carefully-openais-bc42a6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:47:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-looked-at-carefully-openais",
    "title": "Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons",
    "date": "2024-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-looked-at-carefully-openais-dccd07",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:47:42Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-looked-at-carefully-openais",
    "title": "Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons",
    "date": "2024-02-04"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-will-the-genai-bubble-burst-6c9808",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-will-the-genai-bubble-burst",
    "title": "When Will the GenAI Bubble Burst?",
    "date": "2024-03-31"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI revenue so far has been modest (about 0.01% of US GDP) because the closest thing to a killer app, coding assistance, doesn't bring in massive income, generative search isn't reliable enough, customers haven't been thrilled with Copilot, and other problems are modest in size."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-will-the-genai-bubble-burst-82724e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:52:57Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-will-the-genai-bubble-burst",
    "title": "When Will the GenAI Bubble Burst?",
    "date": "2024-03-31"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative search is not reliable enough and does not yet have a clear business model."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-will-the-genai-bubble-burst-cba196",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:52:37Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-will-the-genai-bubble-burst",
    "title": "When Will the GenAI Bubble Burst?",
    "date": "2024-03-31"
   },
   "proposition": "LLM hallucinations are very unlikely to be brought down to human expert levels by the end of 2024."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-when-will-the-genai-bubble-burst-e8b82b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:52:37Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-will-the-genai-bubble-burst",
    "title": "When Will the GenAI Bubble Burst?",
    "date": "2024-03-31"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI is software that isn't making much money, isn't secure, and is keeping a lot of people up at night."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-where-is-ai-headed-8-perspectives-a008fb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:53:07Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the conclusive event is after the evidence cutoff",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-is-ai-headed-8-perspectives",
    "title": "Where is AI headed? 8 perspectives at The New York Times",
    "date": "2026-02-02"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus, like the other NYT panelists, expects AI to have a big impact on coding."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-where-is-ai-headed-8-perspectives-f4728b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:53:07Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the horizon on 2026-10-28 is open_horizon, not not_due",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-is-ai-headed-8-perspectives",
    "title": "Where is AI headed? 8 perspectives at The New York Times",
    "date": "2026-02-02"
   },
   "proposition": "Marcus expects AI to have a large impact on education, though he adds words of caution."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-where-we-are-right-now-on-open-source-314303",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:53:52Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-we-are-right-now-on-open-source",
    "title": "Where we are right now on open source and potential AI risk.",
    "date": "2023-11-03"
   },
   "proposition": "The company pushed open source AI as quickly as possible, apparently without external oversight and without waiting for formal results or scientific consensus."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-where-we-are-right-now-on-open-source-c2e824",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:53:52Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-we-are-right-now-on-open-source",
    "title": "Where we are right now on open source and potential AI risk.",
    "date": "2023-11-03"
   },
   "proposition": "A giant company that is behind in AI, at least in public profile, is aggressively pushing open source AI, apparently to raise its profile."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-wheres-waldo-the-elephant-in-the-ba67d3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:17Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/wheres-waldo-the-elephant-in-the",
    "title": "Where’s Waldo? The Elephant in the Room",
    "date": "2024-01-25"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI appears to be opening its systems to military applications, and at least one well-funded startup is connecting AI to military drones."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-wheres-waldo-the-elephant-in-the-ea5480",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:03Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/wheres-waldo-the-elephant-in-the",
    "title": "Where’s Waldo? The Elephant in the Room",
    "date": "2024-01-25"
   },
   "proposition": "Statistical approximation through generative AI is rarely reliable."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-wheres-waldo-the-elephant-in-the-f287ef-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:03Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/wheres-waldo-the-elephant-in-the",
    "title": "Where’s Waldo? The Elephant in the Room",
    "date": "2024-01-25"
   },
   "proposition": "AI still can't quite sort out what's happening with an elephant on a crowded beach."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-which-ceo-will-be-the-last-to-see-8455b7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/which-ceo-will-be-the-last-to-see",
    "title": "Which CEO will be the last to see it?",
    "date": "2024-12-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-which-ceo-will-be-the-last-to-see-869232",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:16:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/which-ceo-will-be-the-last-to-see",
    "title": "Which CEO will be the last to see it?",
    "date": "2024-12-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-californias-ai-safety-bill-should-e190f4",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-californias-ai-safety-bill-should",
    "title": "Why California’s AI Safety Bill should (still) be signed into law - and why that won’t be nearly enough",
    "date": "2024-08-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-chatgpt-cant-be-trusted-with-1ad410",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-chatgpt-cant-be-trusted-with",
    "title": "Why ChatGPT can’t be trusted with breaking news",
    "date": "2026-01-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-do-large-language-models-hallucinate-edbb3e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:59Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is dated 2025, which is not inside the period described (2025-01-01 to 2025-05-05); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-do-large-language-models-hallucinate",
    "title": "Why DO large language models hallucinate?",
    "date": "2025-05-05"
   },
   "proposition": "LLMs cannot reliably stick to Wikipedia content despite having trained on it."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-driverless-cars-mightor-might-34953f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:48:40Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-driverless-cars-mightor-might",
    "title": "Why driverless cars might—or might not—be at the end of the road",
    "date": "2023-10-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-driverless-cars-mightor-might-5e4a80",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:48:40Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. the conclusive event's date differs from its evidence",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-driverless-cars-mightor-might",
    "title": "Why driverless cars might—or might not—be at the end of the road",
    "date": "2023-10-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Reliable self-driving cars will emerge and will eventually be safer than human drivers."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-driverless-cars-mightor-might-ab4c33-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-driverless-cars-mightor-might",
    "title": "Why driverless cars might—or might not—be at the end of the road",
    "date": "2023-10-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-driverless-cars-mightor-might-e27f63",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-driverless-cars-mightor-might",
    "title": "Why driverless cars might—or might not—be at the end of the road",
    "date": "2023-10-27"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-driverless-cars-mightor-might-f5d88d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:34Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-driverless-cars-mightor-might",
    "title": "Why driverless cars might—or might not—be at the end of the road",
    "date": "2023-10-27"
   },
   "proposition": "Cruise apparently did itself major damage to trust by not initially acknowledging that one of its cars dragged a woman along a street."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-driverless-cars-mightor-might-f9301d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:34Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-driverless-cars-mightor-might",
    "title": "Why driverless cars might—or might not—be at the end of the road",
    "date": "2023-10-27"
   },
   "proposition": "The driverless car industry has grim financials and now faces a backlash."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-is-bing-so-reckless-763920",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:55:09Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-is-bing-so-reckless",
    "title": "Why *is* Bing so reckless?",
    "date": "2023-02-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Reinforcement learning is notoriously finicky and may stop working when circumstances change slightly."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-is-bing-so-reckless-de4271",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-is-bing-so-reckless",
    "title": "Why *is* Bing so reckless?",
    "date": "2023-02-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Big companies are free to roll out new updates whenever they like, with or without warning, and, if each new LLM update requires a complete retraining of the reinforcement learning module, they might need to keep testing them on the general public over and over with no idea in advance of how well they work."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-is-the-roi-on-generative-ai-so-104658",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-is-the-roi-on-generative-ai-so",
    "title": "Why is the ROI on Generative AI so poor?",
    "date": "2025-09-24"
   },
   "proposition": "Gary Marcus endorses the MIT finding that 95% of organizations see no measurable return on their generative AI investments."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-is-the-roi-on-generative-ai-so-105a6e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:48:12Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-is-the-roi-on-generative-ai-so",
    "title": "Why is the ROI on Generative AI so poor?",
    "date": "2025-09-24"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-0fb060",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically",
    "title": "Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically",
    "date": "2025-07-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-345f9c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:08Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically",
    "title": "Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically",
    "date": "2025-07-15"
   },
   "proposition": "xAI apparently skipped or poorly performed standard preflight safety checks like red-teaming and model cards before releasing Grok 4."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-94bd02",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically",
    "title": "Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically",
    "date": "2025-07-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-b0e9b5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically",
    "title": "Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically",
    "date": "2025-07-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-bdbadc",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:48:10Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically",
    "title": "Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically",
    "date": "2025-07-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-e72ad8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:59Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically",
    "title": "Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically",
    "date": "2025-07-15"
   },
   "proposition": "From xAI's own account of the 'mechahitler' incident, it sounds to Marcus like a handful of tiny changes (three in this case) can have huge, unpredicted consequences through Grok's system."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-f9a4f1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:54:59Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically",
    "title": "Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically",
    "date": "2025-07-15"
   },
   "proposition": "Musk's political capital is rapidly diminishing compared with a few months ago."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-openai-may-well-be-completely-2acc7b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-openai-may-well-be-completely",
    "title": "Why OpenAI may well be completely Zuck’d",
    "date": "2024-07-24"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-openai-may-well-be-completely-bee14e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-openai-may-well-be-completely",
    "title": "Why OpenAI may well be completely Zuck’d",
    "date": "2024-07-24"
   },
   "proposition": "Like OpenAI, Anthropic has not been open about its financials, and it faces similar challenges."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-openai-may-well-be-completely-ee9022",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:55:39Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-openai-may-well-be-completely",
    "title": "Why OpenAI may well be completely Zuck’d",
    "date": "2024-07-24"
   },
   "proposition": "As far as Marcus can tell, OpenAI doesn't really have any moat (a way to hold off competition) beyond brand recognition."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-things-will-eventually-fall-apart-55bbcb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-things-will-eventually-fall-apart",
    "title": "Why things will eventually fall apart",
    "date": "2026-06-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-why-things-will-eventually-fall-apart-5cca50",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:03Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-things-will-eventually-fall-apart",
    "title": "Why things will eventually fall apart",
    "date": "2026-06-02"
   },
   "proposition": "The companies competing to build AI will all wind up overpaying compared to the modest profits they will be able to make in an intensely competitive regime."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-will-generative-ai-do-more-harm-than-e272e6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/will-generative-ai-do-more-harm-than",
    "title": "Will Generative AI do more harm than good?",
    "date": "2026-10-24"
   },
   "proposition": "The October 2026 wave of hacks is a 'code red' situation that will get a lot worse before it gets better."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-127663",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:49:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving",
    "title": "Will Tesla ever “Solve” Full Self Driving?",
    "date": "2022-06-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-4475d0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:23Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving",
    "title": "Will Tesla ever “Solve” Full Self Driving?",
    "date": "2022-06-15"
   },
   "proposition": "His informal read, while still lacking a lot of information he would like to see, is that neither Tesla nor Waymo is anywhere close to something we could use every day, all the time, wherever one wanted to go."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-5fcaec",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:49:38Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: AFB's June 2026 report, based on fieldwork ending October 15, 2025, records accessibility and affordability barriers in a survey covering different technologies, not exclusively driverless rides [e3]. | The accessibility survey combines technologies and self-reported experiences; its findings cannot be attributed solely to driverless services [e3]..",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving",
    "title": "Will Tesla ever “Solve” Full Self Driving?",
    "date": "2022-06-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-7ea600",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:44Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving",
    "title": "Will Tesla ever “Solve” Full Self Driving?",
    "date": "2022-06-15"
   },
   "proposition": "Tesla's product names mislead customers about capability and may lead to inattention, accidents, and deaths."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-9b13cd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:44Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving",
    "title": "Will Tesla ever “Solve” Full Self Driving?",
    "date": "2022-06-15"
   },
   "proposition": "Fully autonomous Level 5 driverless cars that safely go from any point A to any point B will not arrive any time soon."
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-9ca231",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving",
    "title": "Will Tesla ever “Solve” Full Self Driving?",
    "date": "2022-06-15"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-e9e901",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving",
    "title": "Will Tesla ever “Solve” Full Self Driving?",
    "date": "2022-06-15"
   },
   "proposition": "Given that Tesla and Waymo aren't close despite their massive investment in the technology, he seriously doubts anyone else is close either to self-driving usable every day, all the time, anywhere."
  },
  {
   "id": "obsolete-pub-cp-150648474-169081",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.obsolete.pub/cp/150648474",
    "title": "“End of an Era”: OpenAI’s AGI Readiness Chief Resigns and Team is Disbanded",
    "date": "2024-10-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "obsolete-pub-cp-150648474-393196",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.obsolete.pub/cp/150648474",
    "title": "“End of an Era”: OpenAI’s AGI Readiness Chief Resigns and Team is Disbanded",
    "date": "2024-10-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "obsolete-pub-cp-150648474-5141f6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.obsolete.pub/cp/150648474",
    "title": "“End of an Era”: OpenAI’s AGI Readiness Chief Resigns and Team is Disbanded",
    "date": "2024-10-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "obsolete-pub-cp-150648474-538048",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.obsolete.pub/cp/150648474",
    "title": "“End of an Era”: OpenAI’s AGI Readiness Chief Resigns and Team is Disbanded",
    "date": "2024-10-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "obsolete-pub-cp-150648474-853efd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.obsolete.pub/cp/150648474",
    "title": "“End of an Era”: OpenAI’s AGI Readiness Chief Resigns and Team is Disbanded",
    "date": "2024-10-23"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-2025-a-retrospective-44fd6b",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:16:47Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/2025-a-retrospective",
    "title": "2025, A Retrospective",
    "date": "2025-12-31"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-2025-a-retrospective-4b043f",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/2025-a-retrospective",
    "title": "2025, A Retrospective",
    "date": "2025-12-31"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-2025-a-retrospective-922795",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/2025-a-retrospective",
    "title": "2025, A Retrospective",
    "date": "2025-12-31"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-2025-a-retrospective-ec9552",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:58Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/2025-a-retrospective",
    "title": "2025, A Retrospective",
    "date": "2025-12-31"
   },
   "proposition": "Millions of GPUs are likely sitting in warehouses; there is no chance that 6 million Blackwell GPUs have been installed and turned on."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-2025-a-retrospective-f7b7ea",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/2025-a-retrospective",
    "title": "2025, A Retrospective",
    "date": "2025-12-31"
   },
   "proposition": "As of September 26, 2025, OpenAI needed at least $1 trillion in the next four years to pull off any of its agreed-upon compute and data center deals."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-2025-a-retrospective-fba26b",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:58Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai not_applicable/not_applicable/not_adjudicable.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/2025-a-retrospective",
    "title": "2025, A Retrospective",
    "date": "2025-12-31"
   },
   "proposition": "AI agents do not exist and cannot exist."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-2025-a-retrospective-fbaeb8",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:56:58Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/2025-a-retrospective",
    "title": "2025, A Retrospective",
    "date": "2025-12-31"
   },
   "proposition": "AI companies' inflated valuations and unsustainable businesses make exits or IPOs impossible."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-1ba0df",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T16:50:08Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: Reuters' September 29, 2025 article reports OpenAI's $8.5 billion cash-burn target for 2025, citing reporting Reuters could not independently verify [e2]. | e1 explanation: \"...and cautions against equating continuing errors with no improvement.\".",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-doesnt-have-roi",
    "title": "AI Doesn't Have ROI",
    "date": "2026-06-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-464112",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:57:31Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-doesnt-have-roi",
    "title": "AI Doesn't Have ROI",
    "date": "2026-06-02"
   },
   "proposition": "Nobody can measure the ROI of AI or standardize the cost of a task, because LLMs inherently hallucinate and harnesses and interfaces keep multiplying."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-571465",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:57:31Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-doesnt-have-roi",
    "title": "AI Doesn't Have ROI",
    "date": "2026-06-02"
   },
   "proposition": "Every user of every AI subscription service has their tokens subsidized, and the actual cost of AI is hidden from them."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-a0de59",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:57:31Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-doesnt-have-roi",
    "title": "AI Doesn't Have ROI",
    "date": "2026-06-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-b117d4",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:57:29Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-doesnt-have-roi",
    "title": "AI Doesn't Have ROI",
    "date": "2026-06-02"
   },
   "proposition": "Although per-million-token prices are falling, models use far more tokens for the same task, so inference cost per task is rising."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-bd2eee",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-doesnt-have-roi",
    "title": "AI Doesn't Have ROI",
    "date": "2026-06-02"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-01b9f3",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:57:53Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "The hypotheticals of the AI industry have created one of the largest equities bubbles in modern history, concentrated in a handful of AI-trade names."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-08d781",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:57:53Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/not_applicable/mixed, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "The chill in AI data center debt markets comes from people realising that CoreWeave is a time bomb of expensive debt: its debt is selling off as they see that delivering its supposed $104 billion backlog (at least 50% OpenAI and Anthropic) will need about $102 billion in debt over the next three years, per UBS."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-0e0485",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:57:53Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai review doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-14cfa8",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:57:53Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-15c793",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-18d11f",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:03Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic review does not accept e1 as contradicts.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "AI debt market conditions will only improve if CoreWeave and other AI infrastructure players have an incredible earnings season."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-1bb759",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-47ca97",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-55866b",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:07Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "By Zitron's own estimate, he sees around $22 billion in compute spend globally outside OpenAI and Anthropic, an unknown share of which comes from AI startups."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-598363",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:04Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-5f1a93",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:04Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "If one AI data center customer can't pay, other customers can't pay, and that will mean less demand for AI data centers, a glut of data center infrastructure, and resale assets that won't be worth as much."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-6ba64c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-7cb19e",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:11Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "80% of OpenAI and Anthropic enterprise revenue comes from loss-making AI startups, so the labs' revenue growth depends on venture capital continuing to fund those startups."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-8fc147",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:11Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e3 measures something else (period 2026-09-01..2026-09-30 is not 2026-09-01..2026-10-20); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Amazon, which spent $54 billion in capex last quarter, is taking about $3 billion of GPU deliveries every month 'for the foreseeable future' despite a supply glut that means it cannot install them, and in some cases it has no idea when it may do so."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-a82587",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "As he was writing, CoreWeave's bonds were trading at yields of about 14.1% to 15.1%, and he says the only way it can calm investor anxiety is by building AI data centers at a rate that has proven next to impossible."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-aa12f8",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:11Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Any further souring of debt markets will leave neoclouds and would-be data center operators paying 12% to 15% interest to build data centers sometime three years in the future, for a customer base made up almost entirely of Anthropic and OpenAI."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-b7d4fe",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:11Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-bcb3a4",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:04Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "To buy those GPUs (or TPUs), every buyer under discussion except Microsoft will have to raise tens of billions of dollars of debt while underlying interest rates are rising and debt markets have chilled on AI data center debt."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-be0b15",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:04Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-c3051e",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:04Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. e1 measures something else (metric Three direct customers' combined share of first-half FY2027 revenue is not Direct-customer concentration in first-half and Q2 FY2027 revenue, together with Q2-end accounts-receivable concentration); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (metric Direct-customer concentration in accounts receivable at Q2 FY2027 end is not Direct-customer concentration in first-half and Q2 FY2027 revenue, together with Q2-end accounts-receivable concentration); it can only be context",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "NVIDIA has a revenue concentration problem, with 44% of first-half FY2027 revenue from three customers and 70% of Q2 receivables from three customers."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-c4e60e",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:04Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "With endless delays and hundreds of billions in chips sitting in storage, AI data centers have become a nightmare for fixed-income investors."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-c54db0",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:28Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "The higher prices of RAM and consumer electronics were caused by an artificial 'supply chain crisis' that Jensen Huang created by pushing NVIDIA's customers to take early delivery of GPUs."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-c854ec",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:28Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Blackstone has staked its entire future on AI working out."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-c8bc6c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:28Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Anthropic's 47% quarter-over-quarter growth rattled markets because the company has to grow fast enough to cover $413 billion of non-cancellable compute contracts over the next few years, and growth is the only thing keeping the bubble going."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-e23af3",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:28Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "The AI industry as it exists today is held together by cultism and private equity excess and will blow up, even if LLMs survive in open source form."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-e24951",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:53Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-e636e6",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:53Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-f2344c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-f3e4c9",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:53Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Borrowing costs for AI data centers are skyrocketing, making their economics increasingly problematic."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-fff2d9",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T12:58:53Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. a conditional_forecast claim cannot be assessed on the historical_observation axis",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-better-work-out",
    "title": "AI Had Better Work Out",
    "date": "2026-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "A roughly 20% drop across major AI-trade stocks, though unlikely, would produce a market decline equal to the worst day of the Dot-Com crash."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-1107e3",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "criteria_ambiguous",
   "since": "2026-10-29T13:00:07Z",
   "detail": "The criteria are ambiguous. The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap",
    "title": "AI Is A Money Trap",
    "date": "2025-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Big tech has not profited from AI data centers and makes little generative AI revenue."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-177d7a",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T13:00:07Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap",
    "title": "AI Is A Money Trap",
    "date": "2025-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Reduced AI capex will cut NVIDIA GPU spending, hit the US stock market, and the AI bubble's popping will damage the wider economy like the dot-com bust."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-18cb1b",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "verification_unavailable",
   "since": "2026-10-29T13:00:07Z",
   "detail": "A required check could not run. The final-text check did not complete (unavailable).",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap",
    "title": "AI Is A Money Trap",
    "date": "2025-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": "Generative AI companies are unprofitable with no end in sight, in most cases do not make much money, are valued at more than anyone would ever buy them for, do not have much valuable intellectual property, and the two biggest players burn billions of dollars more than they make."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-1a98c8",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap",
    "title": "AI Is A Money Trap",
    "date": "2025-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-1bf86c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "policy_mismatch",
   "since": "2026-10-29T13:00:07Z",
   "detail": "The record does not meet the current rules. \"unlikely\" is hedged or probabilistic; one outcome does not score it; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap",
    "title": "AI Is A Money Trap",
    "date": "2025-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI will struggle to reach its $12.7 billion 2025 revenue projection."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-76a2aa",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap",
    "title": "AI Is A Money Trap",
    "date": "2025-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-773748",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap",
    "title": "AI Is A Money Trap",
    "date": "2025-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-77a80c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap",
    "title": "AI Is A Money Trap",
    "date": "2025-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-9826b2",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap",
    "title": "AI Is A Money Trap",
    "date": "2025-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-aa87f5",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap",
    "title": "AI Is A Money Trap",
    "date": "2025-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-b91ebc",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap",
    "title": "AI Is A Money Trap",
    "date": "2025-08-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-26bdee",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
    "title": "AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands",
    "date": "2026-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": "Because Anthropic and OpenAI represent 70% of hyperscalers' AI revenues, there really is no fallback plan."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-472516",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
    "title": "AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands",
    "date": "2026-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-616f71",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
    "title": "AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands",
    "date": "2026-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-aa84d5",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
    "title": "AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands",
    "date": "2026-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
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   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
    "title": "AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands",
    "date": "2026-09-14"
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   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
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    "date": "2026-09-14"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-b8299b",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
    "title": "AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands",
    "date": "2026-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-c2b3a0",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
    "title": "AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands",
    "date": "2026-09-14"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-c61939",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
    "title": "AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands",
    "date": "2026-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-cc7e4e",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
    "title": "AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands",
    "date": "2026-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-ee4dbb",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
    "title": "AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands",
    "date": "2026-09-14"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-f059d3",
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   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands",
    "title": "AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands",
    "date": "2026-09-14"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-really-weird-008930",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-really-weird",
    "title": "AI Is Really Weird",
    "date": "2026-04-08"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-really-weird-0c75c6",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-really-weird",
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   "proposition": "The moment financial conditions worsen or stock prices drop due to rising operating expenses, companies will cut back on API spend, which will overwhelmingly crush Anthropic's revenues."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-really-weird-1b2e8b",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-really-weird",
    "title": "AI Is Really Weird",
    "date": "2026-04-08"
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   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-really-weird-68f59e",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-really-weird",
    "title": "AI Is Really Weird",
    "date": "2026-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": "Research shows AI agents cannot carry out tasks beyond a fairly low complexity."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-really-weird-7af6f9",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-really-weird",
    "title": "AI Is Really Weird",
    "date": "2026-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": "The industry is theoretically building hundreds of gigawatts of data centers for demand that doesn't appear to exist, with only about $65 billion of generative AI revenue in 2025, much of it going to Anthropic and OpenAI, which sell their models to unprofitable AI startups that cannot survive without endless venture capital, as is also true of both labs."
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   "id": "wyea-ai-is-really-weird-a73ee3",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-really-weird",
    "title": "AI Is Really Weird",
    "date": "2026-04-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-really-weird-ca71ac",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-really-weird",
    "title": "AI Is Really Weird",
    "date": "2026-04-08"
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   "proposition": "Every AI startup has to raise hundreds of millions of dollars, and their products are so weak that they can only make millions in revenue by subsidizing the underlying cost of goods to the point of mass unprofitability."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-really-weird-e03a7c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-really-weird",
    "title": "AI Is Really Weird",
    "date": "2026-04-08"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-slowing-down-15431d",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down",
    "title": "AI Is Slowing Down",
    "date": "2026-06-08"
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   "proposition": "If OpenAI or Anthropic sought profitability or sustainability (assuming either were possible), demand for AI compute would fall, reducing demand for Azure, Google Cloud, AWS, CoreWeave and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, and in turn for NVIDIA GPUs."
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   "id": "wyea-ai-is-slowing-down-47bd3e",
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   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down",
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   "proposition": "54% of NVIDIA's revenue comes from three clients, so NVIDIA's future largely depends on those three unnamed companies (likely Taiwanese ODMs building servers for Microsoft, Google and Meta) and on their counterparties' ability to keep raising debt almost indefinitely, as fewer firms can afford to buy thousands of $7.8 million Vera Rubin racks."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-slowing-down-4a09d9",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down",
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-slowing-down-87f859",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down",
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    "date": "2026-06-08"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-slowing-down-9bcfac",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down",
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-slowing-down-de079a",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down",
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ai-is-slowing-down-f61e80",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down",
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   "id": "wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-0d4c48",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-too-expensive",
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   "id": "wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-2d5ede",
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   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-too-expensive",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-too-expensive",
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   "id": "wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-a33f71",
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   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-too-expensive",
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   "proposition": "Anthropic cannot afford to make around $100 billion in annualized revenue, because there is no mechanism for it to bring its costs down and more compute does not make OpenAI's or Anthropic's services cheaper to offer."
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   "id": "wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-abdf2a",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-too-expensive",
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   "id": "wyea-ai-is-too-expensive-bad773",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-too-expensive",
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   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-177094",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense",
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   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense",
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   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-324019",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense",
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   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-49d8c0",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense",
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   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-68de7b",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense",
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   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ab94c0",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense",
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   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free",
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   "proposition": null
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   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free-29d591",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free",
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   "proposition": "For OpenAI to be able to pay its compute deals, it will have to raise or make $852 billion in revenue and/or funding in four years, which would require growing more than 250% every year, effectively 10x by the end of 2030, by which point it must also have become cash-flow positive."
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   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free-66c409",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free",
    "title": "AI's Economics Don't Make Sense [Ad Free]",
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   "proposition": null
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   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free-c5912e",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free",
    "title": "AI's Economics Don't Make Sense [Ad Free]",
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   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free",
    "title": "AI's Economics Don't Make Sense [Ad Free]",
    "date": "2026-04-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
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   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free-d91b36",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free",
    "title": "AI's Economics Don't Make Sense [Ad Free]",
    "date": "2026-04-28"
   },
   "proposition": "For Anthropic to meet its commitments, it will have to agree to spend anywhere from $25 billion to $100 billion a year on compute by the end of 2030."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free-df7492",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free",
    "title": "AI's Economics Don't Make Sense [Ad Free]",
    "date": "2026-04-28"
   },
   "proposition": "AI data center economics are built for perfection with zero fault tolerance: without consistent 100% utilization and tenancy, they end up burning millions of dollars and fail to chip away at their years-long wall of depreciation."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free-fd2bf0",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad-free",
    "title": "AI's Economics Don't Make Sense [Ad Free]",
    "date": "2026-04-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-c5912e",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense",
    "title": "AI's Economics Don't Make Sense",
    "date": "2026-04-28"
   },
   "proposition": "The author is not sure any business investing vast amounts in tokens is seeing any return on investment, which is why every study about AI's ROI struggles to find much evidence that it exists."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-d91b36",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense",
    "title": "AI's Economics Don't Make Sense",
    "date": "2026-04-28"
   },
   "proposition": "For Anthropic to meet its commitments, it will have to agree to spend anywhere from $25 billion to $100 billion a year on compute by the end of 2030."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-f6bc73",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense",
    "title": "AI's Economics Don't Make Sense",
    "date": "2026-04-28"
   },
   "proposition": "Google and Amazon are far savvier and less desperate than Oracle, so they can take the hit if Anthropic ends up running out of money."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-ais-economics-dont-make-sense-fd2bf0",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense",
    "title": "AI's Economics Don't Make Sense",
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-0d64c7",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/am-i-meant-to-be-impressed",
    "title": "Am I Meant To Be Impressed?",
    "date": "2026-05-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-459909",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/am-i-meant-to-be-impressed",
    "title": "Am I Meant To Be Impressed?",
    "date": "2026-05-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-6d6675",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/am-i-meant-to-be-impressed",
    "title": "Am I Meant To Be Impressed?",
    "date": "2026-05-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-94ec6b",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/am-i-meant-to-be-impressed",
    "title": "Am I Meant To Be Impressed?",
    "date": "2026-05-06"
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   "proposition": "50% of big tech's upcoming revenues depend on OpenAI and Anthropic, neither of which can afford to pay, meaning 50% of Meta, Amazon and Google's revenues will come from their own venture investments or from venture capital."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-d98170",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/am-i-meant-to-be-impressed",
    "title": "Am I Meant To Be Impressed?",
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  {
   "id": "wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-f57348",
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   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/am-i-meant-to-be-impressed",
    "title": "Am I Meant To Be Impressed?",
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-fea781",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/am-i-meant-to-be-impressed",
    "title": "Am I Meant To Be Impressed?",
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-annualized-enron-rate-1ddd0c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/annualized-enron-rate",
    "title": "Annualized Enron Rate",
    "date": "2026-10-13"
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   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-annualized-enron-rate-6aa448",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/annualized-enron-rate",
    "title": "Annualized Enron Rate",
    "date": "2026-10-13"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-annualized-enron-rate-7d8d0f",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/annualized-enron-rate",
    "title": "Annualized Enron Rate",
    "date": "2026-10-13"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-annualized-enron-rate-83608f",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/annualized-enron-rate",
    "title": "Annualized Enron Rate",
    "date": "2026-10-13"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-annualized-enron-rate-c068c4",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/annualized-enron-rate",
    "title": "Annualized Enron Rate",
    "date": "2026-10-13"
   },
   "proposition": "It appears that Anthropic counts every dollar of sales in its annualized run rate figure while OpenAI does not, and Zitron does not buy OpenAI's explanation that its approach is 'more ethical.'"
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   "id": "wyea-annualized-enron-rate-c20570",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/annualized-enron-rate",
    "title": "Annualized Enron Rate",
    "date": "2026-10-13"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-anthropics-profitability-swindle-47454c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle",
    "title": "Anthropic's \"Profitability\" Swindle",
    "date": "2026-05-21"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-artificial-labor-6989dc",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/artificial-labor",
    "title": "Artificial Labor",
    "date": "2023-05-12"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-artificial-labor-ccad47",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/artificial-labor",
    "title": "Artificial Labor",
    "date": "2023-05-12"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-brokenomics-31b01d",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics",
    "title": "AI's Brokenomics",
    "date": "2026-06-15"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-brokenomics-3a89a8",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics",
    "title": "AI's Brokenomics",
    "date": "2026-06-15"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-brokenomics-41295c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics",
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    "date": "2026-06-15"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-brokenomics-9d1a9a",
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   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics",
    "title": "AI's Brokenomics",
    "date": "2026-06-15"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-brokenomics-a30576",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics",
    "title": "AI's Brokenomics",
    "date": "2026-06-15"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-brokenomics-d94cc2",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics",
    "title": "AI's Brokenomics",
    "date": "2026-06-15"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-brokenomics-f151c5",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics",
    "title": "AI's Brokenomics",
    "date": "2026-06-15"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-burst-damage-057e7c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage",
    "title": "Burst Damage",
    "date": "2024-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-burst-damage-59c462",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage",
    "title": "Burst Damage",
    "date": "2024-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-burst-damage-671239",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage",
    "title": "Burst Damage",
    "date": "2024-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": "As these companies get desperate, someone, especially OpenAI, can be expected to try to show something 'new and crazy' as a means of trying to turn the narrative."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-burst-damage-698c15",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage",
    "title": "Burst Damage",
    "date": "2024-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-burst-damage-78d3f5",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage",
    "title": "Burst Damage",
    "date": "2024-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-burst-damage-85b0b5",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage",
    "title": "Burst Damage",
    "date": "2024-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": "Zitron believes generative AI will become an albatross around the necks of Google, Microsoft or Amazon, and if it does, these companies will face serious pressure to curtail their investments and capex spending."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-burst-damage-88f1fa",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage",
    "title": "Burst Damage",
    "date": "2024-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-burst-damage-cfba90",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage",
    "title": "Burst Damage",
    "date": "2024-08-05"
   },
   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-cargo-culture-07d798",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/cargo-culture",
    "title": "Cargo Culture",
    "date": "2026-06-23"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenClaw is a product that 99% of people have never heard of except those immersed in Silicon Valley cultism, which is why Microsoft, NVIDIA, Meta and Amazon all built OpenClaw products and OpenAI hired its founder."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-cargo-culture-305b99",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/cargo-culture",
    "title": "Cargo Culture",
    "date": "2026-06-23"
   },
   "proposition": "The investments in OpenAI and Anthropic, at least by Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, were a successful attempt to build their largest individual customers and a new revenue stream, made under what he imagines was the mistaken belief that those customers would eventually become independent enough to pay them without continually raising venture capital."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-cargo-culture-5c1f18",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/cargo-culture",
    "title": "Cargo Culture",
    "date": "2026-06-23"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-cargo-culture-60ed44",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/cargo-culture",
    "title": "Cargo Culture",
    "date": "2026-06-23"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI and Anthropic threw as much money as they could at pre-training because a paper had suggested doing so would bring infinite gains rather than diminishing returns, and when Anthropic built Claude Code by adding scripts on top of an LLM, OpenAI immediately copied it to make Codex."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-cargo-culture-677845",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/cargo-culture",
    "title": "Cargo Culture",
    "date": "2026-06-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Amazon Web Services may have lost money, but it lost significantly less than OpenAI or Anthropic and was significantly more useful than anything the AI industry has ever produced."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-cargo-culture-7da83c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/cargo-culture",
    "title": "Cargo Culture",
    "date": "2026-06-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Every AI lab and startup started with subsidized subscriptions, assuming that at some point somebody else would solve the problem of costs or that they would make it up in volume, because that is what worked before."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-cargo-culture-f41be2",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/cargo-culture",
    "title": "Cargo Culture",
    "date": "2026-06-23"
   },
   "proposition": "Baseten does not own its infrastructure and rents from hyperscalers, so its $1.5 billion raise goes directly to Google, Amazon and Microsoft, much like the money raised by OpenAI and Anthropic, which in turn gets spent buying more NVIDIA GPUs."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-concentration-risk-21094e",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/concentration-risk",
    "title": "Concentration Risk",
    "date": "2026-09-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-concentration-risk-2d7f45",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/concentration-risk",
    "title": "Concentration Risk",
    "date": "2026-09-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-concentration-risk-49e8bc",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/concentration-risk",
    "title": "Concentration Risk",
    "date": "2026-09-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-concentration-risk-6e1f58",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/concentration-risk",
    "title": "Concentration Risk",
    "date": "2026-09-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-concentration-risk-7a6403",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/concentration-risk",
    "title": "Concentration Risk",
    "date": "2026-09-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-concentration-risk-8341d3",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/concentration-risk",
    "title": "Concentration Risk",
    "date": "2026-09-08"
   },
   "proposition": "The financial returns on buying NVIDIA GPUs are driven almost entirely by OpenAI and Anthropic, since Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, CoreWeave, Lambda, Hut8, Fluidstack and basically every other counterparty is building capacity mostly or entirely to capture their revenue."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-concentration-risk-892891",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/concentration-risk",
    "title": "Concentration Risk",
    "date": "2026-09-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-concentration-risk-e2ca70",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/concentration-risk",
    "title": "Concentration Risk",
    "date": "2026-09-08"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-core-incompetency-097068",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/core-incompetency",
    "title": "CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb",
    "date": "2025-03-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-core-incompetency-5bc0d0",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/core-incompetency",
    "title": "CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb",
    "date": "2025-03-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-core-incompetency-60a3f7",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/core-incompetency",
    "title": "CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb",
    "date": "2025-03-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-core-incompetency-6d383e",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/core-incompetency",
    "title": "CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb",
    "date": "2025-03-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-core-incompetency-e595b5",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/core-incompetency",
    "title": "CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb",
    "date": "2025-03-17"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-costs-07d0d6",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/costs",
    "title": "This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services",
    "date": "2025-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-costs-1e48d2",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/costs",
    "title": "This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services",
    "date": "2025-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-costs-a39f06",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/costs",
    "title": "This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services",
    "date": "2025-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Based only on its AWS data, Anthropic spends a remarkable amount on AWS and its costs seem to escalate rapidly as it grows."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-costs-e89608",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/costs",
    "title": "This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services",
    "date": "2025-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": "Anthropic's actual 2024 compute costs are likely significantly higher than previously reported, with a large share going to Google Cloud."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-costs-ece1c1",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/costs",
    "title": "This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services",
    "date": "2025-10-20"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-credit-crunch-1c069e",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/credit-crunch",
    "title": "Credit Crunch",
    "date": "2026-10-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-credit-crunch-4d3b5c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/credit-crunch",
    "title": "Credit Crunch",
    "date": "2026-10-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-credit-crunch-6f2d5c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/credit-crunch",
    "title": "Credit Crunch",
    "date": "2026-10-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-credit-crunch-a53100",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/credit-crunch",
    "title": "Credit Crunch",
    "date": "2026-10-06"
   },
   "proposition": "At their negative EBITDA, and absent government or hyperscaler guarantees, OpenAI and Anthropic would have the door shut on an investment-grade rating and would likely be rated between B and CCC+."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-credit-crunch-ac8259",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/credit-crunch",
    "title": "Credit Crunch",
    "date": "2026-10-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-credit-crunch-b6b4bb",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/credit-crunch",
    "title": "Credit Crunch",
    "date": "2026-10-06"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-crowdstruck-2-13cbb0",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T01:56:19Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/crowdstruck-2",
    "title": "CrowdStruck",
    "date": "2024-07-19"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-dead-money-078f15",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": "The author has serious questions about the validity of SiliconData's rising GPU price indices, which he believes measure spot rates rather than longer-term rates, creating an illusion of success that doesn't connect to reality."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-dead-money-0ee003",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": "80% of Anthropic's and OpenAI's enterprise revenues come from 1% of their customers, the vast majority of them unprofitable AI startups, meaning the labs' demand depends on venture capital continuing to fund those startups."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-dead-money-24faba",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": "Like Cognition, Harvey, Perplexity, Replit and basically every other major AI startup will one day run out of money and die or become a much, much smaller company, though they are all hoping to be acquired by a hyperscaler."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-dead-money-302338",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-dead-money-358b11",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:01:24Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-dead-money-375c5a",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-dead-money-457482",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": "The author does not see how Anthropic becomes able to afford its $518 billion in compute commitments or how it works its way out of its dire economics."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-dead-money-a1b0b7",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": "This kind of SPV is the template for data center debt, its associated investors are a large chunk of the capital funding it, and their ability to keep funding AI data center debt is what is holding up the industry."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-dead-money-ac0456",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-dead-money-d3da28",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money",
    "title": "Dead Money",
    "date": "2026-09-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-deep-impact-18536e",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:01:24Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/deep-impact",
    "title": "Deep Impact",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-deep-impact-5ae556",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/deep-impact",
    "title": "Deep Impact",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-deep-impact-717d08",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/deep-impact",
    "title": "Deep Impact",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-deep-impact-821c5d",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/deep-impact",
    "title": "Deep Impact",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-deep-impact-9030cf",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:01:24Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/deep-impact",
    "title": "Deep Impact",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-deep-impact-92a794",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:32:05Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/deep-impact",
    "title": "Deep Impact",
    "date": "2025-01-29"
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   "proposition": null
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/managing-up",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/measures",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/measures",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/monopoly-money",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/never-forget-what-theyve-done",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/never-forget-what-theyve-done",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-cfo-news",
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   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai",
    "title": "The Subprime AI Crisis",
    "date": "2024-09-16"
   },
   "proposition": "Big companies' best effort, stapling AI onto existing products, doesn't appear to be working for anybody, and AI upgrades like Microsoft's don't seem to provide any real business value."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-subprimeai-971f7c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai",
    "title": "The Subprime AI Crisis",
    "date": "2024-09-16"
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   "proposition": "Judging from his and others' tests, it seems o1 does not perform like a PhD student in geography, basic elementary-level English tests, math, or programming."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-subprimeai-98fe21",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai",
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    "date": "2024-09-16"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-subprimeai-a67a19",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai",
    "title": "The Subprime AI Crisis",
    "date": "2024-09-16"
   },
   "proposition": "He is deeply concerned the industry is built on sand: LLMs at the scale of ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Llama are unsustainable and do not appear to have a path to profitability because of the compute-intensive nature of generative AI."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-subprimeai-b3572f",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai",
    "title": "The Subprime AI Crisis",
    "date": "2024-09-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-subprimeai-ca19f2",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai",
    "title": "The Subprime AI Crisis",
    "date": "2024-09-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-subprimeai-e6b52b",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai",
    "title": "The Subprime AI Crisis",
    "date": "2024-09-16"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-thank-you-ea4a69",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/thank-you",
    "title": "Thank You",
    "date": "2024-12-24"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-bubble-is-an-information-war-06f31a",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-bubble-is-an-information-war",
    "title": "The AI Bubble Is An Information War",
    "date": "2026-03-03"
   },
   "proposition": "Anthropic is totally fine with the US military using Claude for anything beyond its stated exceptions, even though hallucinations are an inevitable result of using a large language model."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-bubble-is-an-information-war-191a96",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-bubble-is-an-information-war",
    "title": "The AI Bubble Is An Information War",
    "date": "2026-03-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-bubble-is-an-information-war-29ba81",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-bubble-is-an-information-war",
    "title": "The AI Bubble Is An Information War",
    "date": "2026-03-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-bubble-is-an-information-war-38ed17",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-bubble-is-an-information-war",
    "title": "The AI Bubble Is An Information War",
    "date": "2026-03-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-bubble-is-an-information-war-662cdb",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:16:47Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-bubble-is-an-information-war",
    "title": "The AI Bubble Is An Information War",
    "date": "2026-03-03"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-demand-bubble-57d45d",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble",
    "title": "The AI Demand Bubble",
    "date": "2026-08-04"
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   "proposition": "Against a dot-com-style recovery, the author argues that if AI demand does not exist today it will not magically appear tomorrow, and that in five years AI GPUs will cost just as much to run, unfinished data centers will cost just as much to finish, and electricity will remain expensive."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-demand-bubble-705650",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble",
    "title": "The AI Demand Bubble",
    "date": "2026-08-04"
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   "proposition": "OpenAI and Anthropic are time bombs, and when either of them explodes, brutal consequences will follow that everybody will ask why nobody saw coming."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-demand-bubble-7fa97b",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble",
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    "date": "2026-08-04"
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   "proposition": "Because there is not enough non-OpenAI/Anthropic AI compute demand, earnings at NVIDIA, Broadcom and effectively any other semiconductor company are inflated by speculative asset purchases, which could eventually lead to impairments or restatements and will certainly lead to a drop in growth once the cat is out of the bag."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-demand-bubble-d52869",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble",
    "title": "The AI Demand Bubble",
    "date": "2026-08-04"
   },
   "proposition": "If Anthropic and OpenAI each had a $100 billion run rate, they would still not have the scale to generate enough compute demand to cover their commitments to Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Oracle."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-demand-bubble-ff48c6",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble",
    "title": "The AI Demand Bubble",
    "date": "2026-08-04"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-haters-manifesto-00b596",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-haters-manifesto",
    "title": "The AI Hater's Manifesto",
    "date": "2026-08-25"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-haters-manifesto-100722",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-haters-manifesto",
    "title": "The AI Hater's Manifesto",
    "date": "2026-08-25"
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-haters-manifesto-276423",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-haters-manifesto",
    "title": "The AI Hater's Manifesto",
    "date": "2026-08-25"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-haters-manifesto-37f523",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-haters-manifesto",
    "title": "The AI Hater's Manifesto",
    "date": "2026-08-25"
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   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-haters-manifesto-44536f",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-haters-manifesto",
    "title": "The AI Hater's Manifesto",
    "date": "2026-08-25"
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   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-haters-manifesto-6e0b2c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-haters-manifesto",
    "title": "The AI Hater's Manifesto",
    "date": "2026-08-25"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-haters-manifesto-78fe25",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-haters-manifesto",
    "title": "The AI Hater's Manifesto",
    "date": "2026-08-25"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-haters-manifesto-790ebb",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-haters-manifesto",
    "title": "The AI Hater's Manifesto",
    "date": "2026-08-25"
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   "proposition": "Zitron estimates Anthropic and OpenAI will spend $200 billion in 2027, and lists their lacking the actual compute demand to justify that spending as one of several points at which the mismatch could happen."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-06c670",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-losing",
    "title": "The AI Industry Is Losing",
    "date": "2026-06-30"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-35fd63",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-losing",
    "title": "The AI Industry Is Losing",
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   "proposition": "Big tech's AI products are near-universally loathed and barely generate any revenue, and even the modestly successful GitHub Copilot (about $1.08 billion annualized at the end of last year) succeeded only because users' compute was heavily subsidized."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-46ad68",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-losing",
    "title": "The AI Industry Is Losing",
    "date": "2026-06-30"
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   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-633909",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-losing",
    "title": "The AI Industry Is Losing",
    "date": "2026-06-30"
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   "proposition": "There is no demand for these data centers being built, there never has been, and there never will be."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-a506a8",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-losing",
    "title": "The AI Industry Is Losing",
    "date": "2026-06-30"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-b9f947",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-losing",
    "title": "The AI Industry Is Losing",
    "date": "2026-06-30"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-c225c0",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-losing",
    "title": "The AI Industry Is Losing",
    "date": "2026-06-30"
   },
   "proposition": "He expects that when the current AI era ends there will be financial carnage and chaos that could easily have been avoided."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-ceeacd",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-losing",
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-f83c20",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-losing",
    "title": "The AI Industry Is Losing",
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you-5d177a",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you",
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   "proposition": null
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   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you-9a4088",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you",
    "title": "The AI Industry Is Lying To You",
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   "proposition": null
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   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you-f47627",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you",
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   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you-f740f5",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you",
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   "id": "wyea-the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you-fd0756",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you",
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   "id": "wyea-the-anti-economy-ac940d",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-anti-economy",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
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   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-internet-is-already-broken",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-more-you-buy-the-more-you-lose",
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   "proposition": "SB Energy will have a great deal of trouble raising the money for the campus, and even assuming it raises the money, he struggles to see how a company that has never built a data center can build the largest data center campus in history."
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   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-more-you-buy-the-more-you-lose",
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  {
   "id": "wyea-the-more-you-buy-the-more-you-lose-903103",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-more-you-buy-the-more-you-lose",
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   "proposition": "Nobody other than hyperscalers, Anthropic and OpenAI seems to be demanding gigawatts of compute, because outside the AI labs and those supporting them there is less than a fifteenth of the demand needed to support the 190GW of planned data center capacity."
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   "id": "wyea-the-more-you-buy-the-more-you-lose-91074d",
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   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-more-you-buy-the-more-you-lose",
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   "proposition": "Because CoreWeave has not yet built its needed capacity, it has not bought all the equipment, and the longer it takes to buy that equipment, the more expensive it will get."
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   "id": "wyea-the-more-you-buy-the-more-you-lose-b88803",
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   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-more-you-buy-the-more-you-lose",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-openai-bubble",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
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   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-revenge-of-the-business-idiot",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-revenge-of-the-business-idiot",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-revenge-of-the-business-idiot",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-ai-crisis-is-here",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-ai-crisis-is-here",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-data-center-crisis",
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    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-data-center-crisis",
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   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-data-center-crisis",
    "title": "The Subprime Data Center Crisis",
    "date": "2026-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-the-subprime-data-center-crisis-93cb22",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-data-center-crisis",
    "title": "The Subprime Data Center Crisis",
    "date": "2026-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-the-subprime-data-center-crisis-9e3979",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-data-center-crisis",
    "title": "The Subprime Data Center Crisis",
    "date": "2026-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": "The commonly held tech-industry belief that there will be multiple Microsofts-worth of operating expenses entirely focused on AI compute in the next four years is absolutely ridiculous, meaning he expects it will not happen."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-the-subprime-data-center-crisis-b65375",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-data-center-crisis",
    "title": "The Subprime Data Center Crisis",
    "date": "2026-07-22"
   },
   "proposition": "CoreWeave's master service agreement with OpenAI will breach investor covenants if OpenAI fails to pay for three months straight, and with its IPO delayed to 2027, OpenAI is going to either need to raise more money or not pay its bills."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-to-serve-altman-03b20a",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman",
    "title": "How Does OpenAI Survive?",
    "date": "2024-07-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-to-serve-altman-46bbaf",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman",
    "title": "How Does OpenAI Survive?",
    "date": "2024-07-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-to-serve-altman-6b9f0c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman",
    "title": "How Does OpenAI Survive?",
    "date": "2024-07-29"
   },
   "proposition": "If OpenAI's February 2024 secondary round provided $5 billion in cash, which Zitron guesses is more than it actually provided while admitting nobody knows, the company still needs another lifeline within the next 12 months."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-to-serve-altman-871cde",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman",
    "title": "How Does OpenAI Survive?",
    "date": "2024-07-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-to-serve-altman-bf2173",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman",
    "title": "How Does OpenAI Survive?",
    "date": "2024-07-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-to-serve-altman-d95b16",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman",
    "title": "How Does OpenAI Survive?",
    "date": "2024-07-29"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-were-watching-facebook-die-187e28",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/were-watching-facebook-die",
    "title": "We're Watching Facebook Die",
    "date": "2024-05-28"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-were-watching-facebook-die-232a15",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/were-watching-facebook-die",
    "title": "We're Watching Facebook Die",
    "date": "2024-05-28"
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   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-what-happens-if-openai-dies-25de72",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-what-happens-if-openai-dies-460be5",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-what-happens-if-openai-dies-978f49",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Based on the reporting Zitron has read, Anthropic is in much better condition than OpenAI, if only because it did not pursue side projects such as video generation, browsers or smart speakers."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-what-happens-if-openai-dies-a49e04",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-what-happens-if-openai-dies-ab11d0",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-what-happens-if-openai-dies-b54b97",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": "OpenAI's cash position at the end of Q1 2026 looked better only by virtue of an influx of capital."
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-what-happens-if-openai-dies-b70ec7",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-what-happens-if-openai-dies-d9a51d",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-what-happens-if-openai-dies-dc733a",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": "For Zitron to be wrong, within three years OpenAI would have to reach annual revenues higher than Meta's and meet obligations of $800 billion or more."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-what-happens-if-openai-dies-e34abf",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-what-happens-if-openai-dies-ead060",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies",
    "title": "What Happens If OpenAI Dies?",
    "date": "2026-08-18"
   },
   "proposition": "Ramp found customers slow to adopt Anthropic's more expensive Fable model because of its price, meaning OpenAI and Anthropic effectively have no way to raise prices."
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   "id": "wyea-what-were-fighting-for-3514aa",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:16:47Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The openai screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-were-fighting-for",
    "title": "What We're Fighting For",
    "date": "2025-02-11"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-what-were-fighting-for-3514aa-3",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-were-fighting-for",
    "title": "What We're Fighting For",
    "date": "2025-02-11"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-what-were-fighting-for-63d18e",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-were-fighting-for",
    "title": "What We're Fighting For",
    "date": "2025-02-11"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-what-were-fighting-for-676327",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-were-fighting-for",
    "title": "What We're Fighting For",
    "date": "2025-02-11"
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   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-where-are-all-the-data-centers-01220c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/where-are-all-the-data-centers",
    "title": "Where Are All The Data Centers?",
    "date": "2026-05-12"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-where-are-all-the-data-centers-32f8b1",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/where-are-all-the-data-centers",
    "title": "Where Are All The Data Centers?",
    "date": "2026-05-12"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-where-are-all-the-data-centers-932f01",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/where-are-all-the-data-centers",
    "title": "Where Are All The Data Centers?",
    "date": "2026-05-12"
   },
   "proposition": "The vast majority of Microsoft's publicly announced or documented data center capacity does not appear to be getting finished, which he says is probably why Microsoft did not answer his questions."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-wherere-all-the-ai-chips-00a3a4",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-the-ai-chips",
    "title": "Where're All The AI Chips?",
    "date": "2026-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-wherere-all-the-ai-chips-02525c",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-the-ai-chips",
    "title": "Where're All The AI Chips?",
    "date": "2026-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": "Under his model, about $791 billion of big-four hyperscaler capex is unaccounted for, which he calls fairly disastrous. Assuming 50% of it is GPUs, about $395 billion of silicon has been sold and is, he hopes, sitting in a warehouse or unpowered data center, which he calls questionably legal accounting."
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  {
   "id": "wyea-wherere-all-the-ai-chips-1ac937",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-the-ai-chips",
    "title": "Where're All The AI Chips?",
    "date": "2026-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-wherere-all-the-ai-chips-40f19b",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-the-ai-chips",
    "title": "Where're All The AI Chips?",
    "date": "2026-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-wherere-all-the-ai-chips-55eba4",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "attribution_uncertain",
   "since": "2026-10-29T02:16:47Z",
   "detail": "Attribution is uncertain. The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-the-ai-chips",
    "title": "Where're All The AI Chips?",
    "date": "2026-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-wherere-all-the-ai-chips-5a75d5",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-the-ai-chips",
    "title": "Where're All The AI Chips?",
    "date": "2026-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": null
  },
  {
   "id": "wyea-wherere-all-the-ai-chips-8aa271",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "assessment_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews reached different assessments. The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-the-ai-chips",
    "title": "Where're All The AI Chips?",
    "date": "2026-09-22"
   },
   "proposition": "CoreWeave, Nscale, Lambda and every other neocloud are on the highway to Hell (financial ruin), with ballooning debt that can only be paid through contracts dependent on a few AI labs and Meta."
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   "id": "wyea-wheres-the-money-006da0",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-money",
    "title": "There Is No AI Revolution",
    "date": "2025-02-24"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-wheres-the-money-128e84",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-money",
    "title": "There Is No AI Revolution",
    "date": "2025-02-24"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-wheres-the-money-1ac7ed",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-money",
    "title": "There Is No AI Revolution",
    "date": "2025-02-24"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-wheres-the-money-2a6c9d",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-money",
    "title": "There Is No AI Revolution",
    "date": "2025-02-24"
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   "proposition": null
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  {
   "id": "wyea-wheres-the-money-cc5360",
   "subject_id": "ed-zitron",
   "held_reason": "semantic_disagreement",
   "since": "2026-10-29T03:08:15Z",
   "detail": "The two reviews read the claim differently. The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "source": {
    "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-money",
    "title": "There Is No AI Revolution",
    "date": "2025-02-24"
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   "event_id": "marcus-a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game-fd7eda-held-a2",
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   "reason": "The final-text check failed; overclaims: e3 explanation: \"Contemporary inference-scaling research included explicit predictive models, so the entire field cannot be characterized as directionless experimentation.\" This rebuts a stronger claim than Marcus made. He said the new version is \"much more 'let's try it and see what happens'\", a comparison about the reframed scaling notion. He did not call the entire field directionless, and \"directionless\" is loaded wording..",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-a-sad-day-for-america-c55958-held-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-a-sad-day-for-america-c55958",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "reason": "The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-a-sad-day-for-america-c9756e-held-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "reason": "The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "substantive": true
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   "claim_id": "marcus-a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents-3abe98",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
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   "event_id": "marcus-a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents-520def-held-a3",
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   "reason": "The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The 60% to 80% cost figure comes through a 2026 preprint's summary, not the original studies (Brooks; Lehman). | For AI agents, long-term maintenance proved harder than one-shot code changes..",
   "substantive": true
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   "reason": "The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Both items come from 2026, only months after the post. | That is the baseline the forecast starts from, but the same paper reports fast improvement..",
   "substantive": true
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents-a40a6b-held-a1",
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   "substantive": true
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   "reason": "The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.",
   "substantive": true
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   "event_id": "marcus-a-tale-of-two-ai-capitalisms-08e72e-held-a2",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-a-tale-of-two-ai-capitalisms-08e72e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-a-tale-of-two-liars-2cf3ba-held-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-a-tale-of-two-liars-2cf3ba",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-a-tale-of-two-liars-2cf3ba-a1",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-a-tale-of-two-liars-356862-assessment-published-a1",
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   "event_id": "marcus-a-tale-of-two-liars-8b951a-assessment-published-a1",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-a-tale-of-two-liars-d05142-held-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-agi-isnt-coming-in-2025-and-gpt-5-439e22-assessment-published-a2",
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  },
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  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-1649d2-assessment-published-a1",
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   "event_id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-1abf63-held-a1",
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  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-2b78a1-assessment-published-a2",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-39ca18-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-39ca18",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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  },
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   "event_id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-3aa6df-assessment-published-a1",
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   "substantive": true
  },
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   "event_id": "marcus-agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime-aa3d11-held-a1",
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  {
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  {
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   "substantive": true
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   "event_id": "marcus-ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux-5a7e45-assessment-published-a3",
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   "event_id": "marcus-ai-agents-hype-versus-reality-redux-9e0e0e-2-assessment-published-a1",
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   "substantive": true
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-bfbde1-held-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-bfbde1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-bfbde1-a1",
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   "effective_at": null,
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-c1e258-assessment-published-a2",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-cc9796-held-a1",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-eb9455-held-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-eb9455",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-risk-agi-risk-f92470-held-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-risks-short-term-and-longand-what-cee5a8-assessment-published-a1",
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   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-risks-short-term-and-longand-what-cee5a8-a1",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-0771b0-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-0771b0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-0771b0-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-0f7941-held-a2",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-0f7941",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-0f7941-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-303ff1-assessment-published-a2",
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   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-303ff1-a2",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-34937c-assessment-published-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-34937c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-34937c-a1",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-4037bf-assessment-published-a2",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-4037bf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-4037bf-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-4f1e61-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-4f1e61",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-4f1e61-a1",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-55dca2-held-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-55dca2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-55dca2-a1",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-72badf-held-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-72badf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "effective_at": null,
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-732925-assessment-published-a2",
   "type": "assessment_published",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
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   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-7c6de3-assessment-published-a2",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-a13f79-assessment-published-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-a13f79",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-a13f79-a1",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-b0c0ed-assessment-published-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-b0c0ed",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-b0c0ed-a1",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-b137c9-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-b137c9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-b137c9-a1",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-c9a2f8-held-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-da3ee2-assessment-published-a2",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
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  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-de2cac-assessment-published-a1",
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   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-de2cac-a1",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-f53ad1-assessment-published-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-f53ad1-a1",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-fa6dd9-held-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-fa6dd9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-fa6dd9-a1",
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   "reason": "The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
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   "event_id": "marcus-ai-still-lacks-common-sense-70-years-ffeaae-assessment-published-a1",
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   "event_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-023b6e-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-023b6e-a1",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-22ee05-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-22ee05",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-35227a-assessment-published-a1",
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   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-35227a-a1",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-43b7c4-assessment-published-a1",
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   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-43b7c4-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-47d2eb-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-47d2eb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-47d2eb-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "e1 is dated 2023-11, which is not inside the period described (2023-01 to 2023-11-25); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01 to 2023-11-25); it can only be context; e3 is dated 2023-11, which is not inside the period described (2023-01 to 2023-11-25); it can only be context; e4 is dated 2023-11, which is not inside the period described (2023-01 to 2023-11-25); it can only be context",
   "substantive": true
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   "substantive": true
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   "substantive": true
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  {
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-a2c5f9-held-a1",
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   "event_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-ad98e1-held-a2",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-ad98e1",
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   "substantive": true
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   "event_id": "marcus-ai-versus-the-clumsy-human-mind-c2bc7d-held-a1",
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   "substantive": true
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   "substantive": true
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   "substantive": true
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  {
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ais-jurassic-park-moment-04b5a5-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-ais-jurassic-park-moment-04b5a5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-ais-jurassic-park-moment-10605e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ais-jurassic-park-moment-38e673-held-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-ais-jurassic-park-moment-38e673",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-an-open-letter-to-fei-fei-li-concerning-521f92-assessment-published-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-0ac250",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-0ac250-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The final-text check failed; overclaims: That does not fit a failure to meet its obligations..",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-0d7327-assessment-published-a2",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-0d7327",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-0d7327-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-13c877-assessment-published-a2",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-13c877",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-13c877-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-1da588-held-a2",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-1da588",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The final-text check failed; overclaims: The claim depends on a 'reliable version of the product', which Marcus does not define and which he generally holds does not yet exist. | Provider margins on current products can be observed but are not the product he describes, so they are context only..",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-220a31-held-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-220a31",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-2b3f1d-assessment-published-a2",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-2b3f1d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-2b3f1d-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-2d0a21-assessment-published-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-2d0a21",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-2d0a21-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-31d45a-assessment-published-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-31d45a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-31d45a-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-32d3c4-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-36968e-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-36968e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-36968e-a1",
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   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "a causal claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis; e1 measures something else (company Anthropic is not LLM companies (Anthropic, OpenAI)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (company Anthropic is not LLM companies (Anthropic, OpenAI)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope",
   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-36e433-held-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "e3 is dated 2026-06, which is not inside the period described (2026-01-01 to 2026-06-10); it can only be context",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-42855b-held-a1",
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   "substantive": true
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   "substantive": true
  },
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   "substantive": true
  },
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   "effective_at": null,
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   "substantive": true
  },
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-a67eef-assessment-published-a2",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-a67eef",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-a67eef-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-a70398-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-a70398",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-a70398-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-a9c1e1-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-a9c1e1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-a9c1e1-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-c65451-held-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-c65451",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-c65451-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "only a conditional forecast records a condition status",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-cf223f-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-cf223f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-cf223f-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-d51f62-assessment-published-a2",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-d51f62",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-d51f62-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-d6cfc9-held-a2",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-d6cfc9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-d6cfc9-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The evidence packet has no report that OpenAI failed to meet its obligations by 28 October 2026, so the condition has not occurred. | The claim's antecedent has not occurred. | OpenAI is private, so a missed or renegotiated obligation might not become public..",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-dc36a7-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-dc36a7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-dc36a7-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "e1 measures something else (company OpenAI is not Major LLM providers (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, GitHub/Microsoft Copilot)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (company GitHub (Microsoft) is not Major LLM providers (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, GitHub/Microsoft Copilot)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 measures something else (company Anthropic is not Major LLM providers (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, GitHub/Microsoft Copilot)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
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   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-e292ba",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-e292ba-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-e8256a-assessment-published-a2",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-e8256a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-e8256a-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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   "substantive": true
  },
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   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-eaf6a8",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
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   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-ecc394",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-ecc394-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-f08d4a-held-a2",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-f08d4a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-f08d4a-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: Reports that most of Amazon's commitment depends on an IPO or an AGI milestone..",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-f3a496-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-breaking-news-and-how-the-end-might-f3a496",
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  },
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   "substantive": true
  },
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  },
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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  {
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  {
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   "claim_id": "marcus-caricaturing-noam-chomsky-4fe53c",
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   "effective_at": null,
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the-da4084-held-a1",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the-e162e5-assessment-published-a1",
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  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-dario-amodei-hype-ai-safety-and-the-ec138a-held-a1",
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  {
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-dario-takes-it-on-the-chin-953bed-assessment-published-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-dario-takes-it-on-the-chin-953bed",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-dario-takes-it-on-the-chin-9b1505-2-assessment-published-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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  {
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
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  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-dario-takes-it-on-the-chin-ae65a4-assessment-published-a1",
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  {
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  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
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   "substantive": true
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  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-302371-assessment-published-a1",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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  {
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  },
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  },
  {
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  {
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  {
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  },
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  },
  {
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  },
  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-ezra-kleins-new-take-on-agi-and-why-ece545-held-a1",
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   "reason": "The anthropic review does not accept e1 as contradicts.",
   "substantive": true
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-five-ways-in-which-the-last-3-months-c180be-held-a1",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-1b1b63-held-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-1b1b63-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-1b2b2f-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-1b2b2f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-1b2b2f-a1",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-35acc6-assessment-published-a1",
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  },
  {
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "e3 is dated 2025-09, which is not inside the period described (2025-01-01 to 2025-09-26); it can only be context",
   "substantive": true
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  {
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-game-over-for-pure-llms-even-turing-8ce5fe-assessment-published-a1",
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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   "claim_id": "marcus-genai-in-two-words-success-theater-704680",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
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  {
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have-609e17-assessment-published-a2",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-genais-day-of-reckoning-may-have-609e17-a2",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
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  },
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   "event_id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-ace526-held-a1",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-b685c5-held-a1",
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  {
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   "event_id": "marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-bbf4ea-assessment-published-a1",
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   "substantive": true
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   "event_id": "marcus-groupthink-versus-tulips-what-will-d559e0-assessment-published-a1",
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   "reason": "The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e1 public excerpt \"GPT-4 judge favoring GPT-4 outputs.\" drops the source's hedge \"can be due to\" and its subject, so a possible bias reads as an established fact..",
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   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-0956cd-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-0956cd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-0956cd-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-0fea27-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-0fea27",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-0fea27-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-165b39-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-165b39",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-165b39-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The openai review reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-18065f-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-18065f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-18065f-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-23d009-held-a2",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-23d009-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The final-text check failed; overclaims: Company claim that an LLM assistant handled customer chats on its own at scale..",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-4085ea-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-4085ea",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-4085ea-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-4b58ac-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-4b58ac",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-4b58ac-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-604443-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-604443",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-604443-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-67ebe8-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-67ebe8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-67ebe8-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The anthropic review reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-7e1f6e-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-7e1f6e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-7e1f6e-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-8da174-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-8da174",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-8da174-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-9b005b-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-9b005b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-9b005b-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-a674ed-held-a2",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-a674ed",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-a674ed-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The final-text check failed; overclaims: In a tournament of eight leading LLMs, most first-round matches had more games lost to illegal moves than to checkmate..",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-aa5fa5-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-aa5fa5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-aa5fa5-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-c0ecdf-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-c0ecdf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-c0ecdf-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-c9ea80-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-c9ea80",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-cc2f5e-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-cc2f5e-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-d869b2-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-d869b2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-d869b2-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-ecb736-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-ecb736",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-ecb736-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-ef5f46-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-ef5f46",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-agi-is-nigh-doomers-own-goaled-ef5f46-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-34aa9f-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-34aa9f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-34aa9f-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-4beea8-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-4beea8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-4beea8-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-53b72f-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-53b72f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-53b72f-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-595ea5-held-a2",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-595ea5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The final-text check failed: citations_correct.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-8a4b8d-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-8a4b8d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-8a4b8d-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-8ebd5b-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-8ebd5b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-8ebd5b-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-9d923e-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-9d923e",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-9d923e-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-d81788-2-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-d81788-2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-d81788-2-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-d81788-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-d81788",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-d81788-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-ddffa6-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-ddffa6",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-ddffa6-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-df4765-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-df4765",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-df4765-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "e2 is dated 2023-04, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-04-25); it can only be context",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-e2417a-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-e2417a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-e2417a-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-e8ae9f-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-e8ae9f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-e8ae9f-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-f419e7-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-f419e7",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-china-might-crush-the-west-in-f419e7-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-1866b5-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-1866b5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-1866b5-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-1a85ab-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-1a85ab",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-1a85ab-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-33bab9-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-33bab9",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-33bab9-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-57cc2b-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-57cc2b",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-57cc2b-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-ba6d55-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-ba6d55",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-come-gpt-can-seem-so-brilliant-ba6d55-a1",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-00f9e3-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-00f9e3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-00f9e3-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-02d974-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-02d974",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-02d974-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-0eff2c-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-0eff2c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-0eff2c-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-0f167c-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-0f167c",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-0f167c-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-109482-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-109482",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-109482-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-11478a-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-11478a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-11478a-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-181ce2-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-181ce2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-181ce2-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-213249-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-213249",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-213249-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-229359-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-229359",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-229359-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-2350c5-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-2350c5",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-2350c5-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-450f19-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-450f19",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-450f19-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-4824fd-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-4824fd",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-4824fd-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-4c5ce3-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-4c5ce3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-4c5ce3-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-5007c0-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-5007c0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-5007c0-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-541b2f-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-541b2f",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-541b2f-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-5b05c1-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-5b05c1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-5b05c1-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-63059a-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-63059a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-63059a-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-666e04-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-666e04",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-666e04-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-6c39ba-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-6c39ba",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-6c39ba-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-7e356d-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-7e356d",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-7e356d-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-7f5d25-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-7f5d25",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-7f5d25-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-8757bf-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-8757bf",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-8757bf-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-8f3025-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-8f3025",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-8f3025-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-92cbcb-assessment-published-a2",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-92cbcb",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-92cbcb-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-95a315-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-95a315",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-9c4355-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-9c4355",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-9c4355-a1",
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   "effective_at": null,
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-a4d0a8-assessment-published-a2",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-a4d0a8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-a4d0a8-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-a564b3-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-a564b3",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-a564b3-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-a66c15-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-a66c15",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "effective_at": null,
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-aadc40-assessment-published-a2",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-aadc40",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-ae505a-held-a2",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-ae505a",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-ae505a-a2",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The final-text check failed; overclaims: A minority view holds that grounding is partly solved..",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-ae5cd0-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-ae5cd0",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-ae5cd0-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-af9643-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-af9643",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-af9643-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-b0baf8-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-b0baf8",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-b0baf8-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-b395d2-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-b395d2",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-b395d2-a1",
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   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-b47ab1-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-b47ab1",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-b47ab1-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-c58a66-held-a1",
   "type": "held",
   "claim_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-c58a66",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-c58a66-a1",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:18Z",
   "effective_at": null,
   "reason": "The openai screen reads the claim differently.",
   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-how-o3-and-grok-4-accidentally-vindicated-d597e7-assessment-published-a1",
   "type": "assessment_published",
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   "event_id": "marcus-is-the-white-houses-ai-policy-coherent-3a1410-held-a2",
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   "event_id": "marcus-it-remains-very-difficult-to-find-16ece3-held-a1",
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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   "reason": "The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Rationale: \"the April 2023 DINOv2 paper ... reports leading general-purpose visual-feature performance [e2]\" — the quoted e2 text only shows a ViT-g backbone used for distillation, not benchmark leadership. | e2 explanation: \"reports leading general-purpose feature performance across image and pixel benchmarks\" — not shown in the quoted evidence..",
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   "assessment_id": "marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-1e98ef-a1",
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   "event_id": "marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-38dff4-assessment-published-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "assessment_id": "marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-50162b-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-683b11-held-a2",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-683b11",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-6a5895-held-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "reason": "The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable.",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-4149b5-assessment-published-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-4149b5-a1",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
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   "assessment_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-44f477-a1",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-58e915-held-a1",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-5c116a-assessment-published-a1",
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-603fda-held-a1",
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  },
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-8544c0-assessment-published-a1",
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   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-931d40-held-a1",
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   "substantive": true
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  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-951c0a-held-a1",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-a11e27-assessment-published-a1",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-a388d9-held-a1",
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  },
  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-cdc1fa-assessment-published-a1",
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   "claim_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-cdc1fa",
   "subject_id": "gary-marcus",
   "assessment_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-cdc1fa-a1",
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over-d76705-held-a1",
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  {
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  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
   "event_id": "marcus-the-rapid-rise-and-slow-decline-of-0e3e11-assessment-published-a1",
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  },
  {
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   "substantive": true
  },
  {
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  {
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   "substantive": true
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   "event_id": "marcus-the-rapid-rise-and-slow-decline-of-4454d9-assessment-published-a1",
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