1984, but with LLM’s
We recorded 4 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 3 can’t be checked. 8 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (4)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Causal claim
“No LLM is fully coherent in it’s “beliefs”, because by nature they parrot a variety conflicting things from their training, which is itself inconsistent, rather than reasoning their way a coherent view the way a rational person might.”
Our reading: No LLM has fully coherent beliefs, because LLMs repeat conflicting material from inconsistent training data instead of reasoning their way to a coherent view.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: 'Parrot' versus 'reason' is partly a theoretical framing that studies do not measure directly.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“LLMs may not be AGI, but they could easily become the most potent form of mind control ever invented.”
Our reading: Even if LLMs are not AGI, they could easily become the most powerful form of mind control ever invented.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Actually making this adventure in data revisionism work is probably harder than Musk is anticipating. First, the sheer mass of the internet rules out doing it by hand, and automating the process in a satisfactory (to him) way will prove challenging.”
Our reading: Musk's plan to rewrite Grok's training data will probably be harder than he expects, because it cannot be done by hand and automating it to his satisfaction will be difficult.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Second, a system with deliberately altered input may wind up faring poorly on other benchmarks, a cost Musk may not wish to bear.”
Our reading: If a system's input is deliberately altered, it may wind up faring poorly on other benchmarks, a cost Musk may not wish to bear.
No horizon
Only if: a system with deliberately altered input
Held from this post (8)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: The Chinese government has already made conformity to its Party line a legal requirement; Putin is probably doing the same; and it is not inconceivable that the present US government might pressure companies to do the same.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: Grok is perhaps slightly closer to the center than other LLMs but nowhere near as far right as Musk.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: After failing to make Grok match his personal beliefs, Musk will rewrite Grok's training data (history) so that it matches his views.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: If you use the same data as everyone else, it is actually pretty hard to make an LLM that stands out from the pack, short of using some fine-tuning tricks that likely reduce accuracy.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: You could argue that almost every LLM, Grok included, has a slight liberal bias.