AGI by 2027?
We recorded 6 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 3 can’t be checked. 5 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (6)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“It can do some things better, some worse, very few reliably.”
Our reading: Compared with a smart high schooler, GPT-4 can do some things better and some things worse, and it can do very few things reliably.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Both sources are company disclosures from 2023 and do not establish the performance of an identified June 2024 GPT-4 version [e1][e2].
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“The double Y-axis makes no sense, and presupposes its own conclusion.”
Our reading: The double Y-axis on Aschenbrenner's graph makes no sense and presupposes its own conclusion.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The phrase makes no sense remains an evaluative judgment.
Assessment: MixedSaid
Observation
“The graph assumes that all continued progress will be same — ignoring qualitatively unsolved problems (hallucinations, planning, reasoning etc), the fact that synthetic data may not be as useful as natural data, limits on then-possible energy distribution and compute, etc.”
Our reading: Aschenbrenner's graph assumes all continued progress will be the same, ignoring qualitatively unsolved problems such as hallucinations, planning and reasoning, the possibility that synthetic data may not be as useful as natural data, and limits on energy distribution and compute.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The result depends on including the graph's supporting analysis.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“we are (as Eliezer Yudkowsky has rightly argued for years) woefully underprepared for AGI whenever it comes.”
Our reading: We are woefully underprepared for AGI, whenever it comes, as Eliezer Yudkowsky has rightly argued for years.
No horizon
Qualifier: whenever AGI comes
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The thing is, we should be worried, no matter how much time we have.”
Our reading: We should be worried about AGI preparedness regardless of how long until AGI arrives.
No horizon
Qualifier: no matter how much time we have
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s imperative that we do better.”
Our reading: It is imperative that we do better at reining in Silicon Valley than we have so far.
No horizon
Scope: in the context of the self-regulation and legislative failures just described
Held from this post (5)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: As far as Marcus knows, GPT-4 on its own does not produce original work such as science-fair ideas or original computer systems.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: GPT-4 is not equivalent in capability to a smart high schooler.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: Marcus says he cannot think of a single measure on which any model existing in 2024 outpaces GPT-4 by as much as GPT-4 outpaced the 2020 state of the art, and says progress is already behind the curve.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: The data points in Aschenbrenner's AGI projection graph are imaginary rather than real measurements.