BREAKING: Sam Altman concedes that we need major breakthroughs beyond mere scaling to get to AGI
We recorded 6 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 3 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (6)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Another dramatic sign of changing times: Sam Altman, who ridiculed my 2022 critique of LLMs that argued that scaling would not bring us to AGI and that we would need architectures has just argued that”
Our reading: Sam Altman, who ridiculed Marcus's 2022 critique arguing that scaling would not bring us to AGI, has just said he bets there is another new architecture to find that would be as big a gain as transformers were over LSTMs, which Marcus calls a dramatic sign of changing times.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The original post does not identify Marcus or his particular 2022 critique; the attribution rests on secondary commentary [e1, e2].
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Note that in this talk Altman didn’t claim to have found such an architecture. That represents a significant retrenchment from his claim fourteen months ago that “We now know how to build AGI as it’s usually understood.””
Our reading: In this talk Altman did not claim to have found such an architecture, which Marcus says is a significant retrenchment from Altman's claim fourteen months earlier that 'We now know how to build AGI as it's usually understood.'
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The contemporaneous news report is not a complete transcript.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Taken together with Musk’s recent admission that xAI was “not built right” and Zuckerberg’s delay of Meta’s latest model, the shift from three prominent tech CEOs in a short period of time is a strong sign that insiders are losing faith in pure scaling.”
Our reading: The recent shifts by Altman, Musk and Zuckerberg strongly suggest that AI industry insiders are losing faith in pure scaling.
No horizon
Assessment: MixedSaid
Observation
“Hassabis is no longer on board either, and nor are Sutskever and LeCun. Nadella and Pichai have also hinted at skepticism around scaling.”
Our reading: Hassabis, Sutskever and LeCun no longer believe in scaling as the route to AGI, and Nadella and Pichai have hinted at skepticism about it.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The record does not establish earlier endorsement and subsequent rejection of scaling alone for everyone described as having changed position.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The bad bargain of AI data centers makes no sense.”
Our reading: The bad bargain of AI data centers makes no sense.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“With the case for scaling as a road to AGI steadily crumbling, it is time to reconsider.”
Our reading: Because the case for scaling as a road to AGI is falling apart, the plans to spend heavily on data centers should be reconsidered.
No horizon
Qualifier: case for scaling as a road to AGI crumbling
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Scaling has not led to AGI.
- The two reviews read the claim differently