Everything I warned about in Taming Silicon Valley is rapidly becoming our reality
We recorded 7 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 4 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (7)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“They were overhyping LLMS as AGI, even as problems like hallucinations and boneheaded persisted.”
Our reading: As a premise of Taming Silicon Valley, tech oligarchs were overhyping LLMs as AGI even as problems like hallucinations and boneheaded errors persisted.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The packet lacks a specific executive AGI claim matched to contemporary evaluations of the corresponding systems and capabilities.
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
Forecast
“The new administration will do everything in its power to protect businesses, and nothing to protect individuals.”
Our reading: The new administration will do everything in its power to protect businesses, and nothing to protect individuals.
Settled before its deadline Evidence as of
Limitation: The enactment records do not measure enforcement or effectiveness.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If AI has significant negative externalities upon the world, we the citizens are screwed.”
Our reading: If AI has significant negative externalities upon the world, we the citizens are screwed.
No horizon
Only if: if AI has significant negative externalities upon the world
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“He’s absolutely right, we should worry about authoritarian uses of AI.”
Our reading: We should worry about authoritarian uses of AI.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Causal claim
“(Also, having our own massive LLMs will do nothing to stop China from using theirs in authoritarian pursuits.)”
Our reading: US possession of massive LLMs will do nothing to stop China from using its LLMs for authoritarian purposes.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Public records provide limited visibility into covert deployments and their outcomes.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Right now, it isn’t.”
Our reading: At present, AI is not working for the public.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Unless we speak up very, very loudly, it won’t.”
Our reading: Unless citizens speak up very loudly, AI will not come to work for the public.
No horizon
Only if: unless citizens speak up very loudly
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: Vance has no evidence whatsoever that the US has excessive regulation around AI, and arguably the US has almost no AI regulation at all.