GPT-5… now arriving Gate 8, Gate 9, Gate 10
We recorded 6 claims from this post. 4 were checked against evidence. 2 can’t be checked. 1 more is held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (6)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“In case you haven’t noticed, GPT-5 has come to seem to be a little like that. People keep on trying project its arrival, and its arrival keeps on slippin’ into the future.”
What we tested: Projected arrival dates for GPT-5 have repeatedly slipped into the future.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“Nobody to my knowledge has kept systematic track of the predictions, but I took a quick and somewhat random look at X and had no trouble finding many predictions, going back to 2023, almost always optimistic.”
What we tested: In a quick and somewhat random look at X, Marcus easily found many predictions about GPT-5's arrival, going back to 2023, and they were almost always optimistic.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“It would now appear that Business Insider’s sources were confused, or overstating what they knew.”
What we tested: Business Insider's sources on an imminent GPT-5 release appear to have been confused or overstated their knowledge.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“(Probably for the third or fourth time, if my hunch is correct, with GPT 4-Turbo and 4o perhaps being failed attempts that didn’t seem worthy of the name, with another earlier attempt halting before Sam’s time speaking to the Senate in May 2023.)”
What we tested: OpenAI has probably started training GPT-5 three or four times, with GPT-4 Turbo and GPT-4o perhaps being failed attempts not worthy of the name.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
“As of today, I am more confident than ever that GPT-5 won’t land this year.”
What we tested: OpenAI will not release GPT-5 in 2024.
What happened: OpenAI introduced GPT-5 on August 7, 2025. A model first introduced in August 2025 was not released in 2024. (OpenAI, )
Assessment: SupportedSaid
“As of today, I am more confident than ever that GPT-5 won’t land this year.”
What we tested: GPT-5 will not be released in 2024.
What happened: OpenAI's initial GPT-5 announcement is dated August 7, 2025, and describes rollout beginning that day. This places its public arrival after the forecast's 2024 deadline. (OpenAI, )
Held from this post (1)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.