How AGI-is-nigh doomers own-goaled humanity
We recorded 9 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 6 can’t be checked. 11 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (9)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Causal claim
“the point being that doomers, especially those who have screamed that AGI is nigh, have wanted to slow AI acceleration (at least until we could make AI safe) and instead have only accelerated it.”
Our reading: Doomers, especially those who claimed AGI is nigh, wanted to slow AI acceleration (at least until AI could be made safe) but instead have only accelerated it.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Safety agreements are not measurements of development speed.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“But they have also been influential, and not in a good way.”
Our reading: Doomer AGI projections have been influential, and not in a good way.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“History will probably regard that as a turning point.2”
Our reading: History will probably regard the Pentagon's rejection of Anthropic and contract with OpenAI as a turning point.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Causal claim
“By proclaiming that LLMs would change the world, and that they would do so imminently, doomers contributed to the growth of the LLM companies (essentially free publicity) and to the White House thinking LLMs were critical to the survival of the nation.”
Our reading: By proclaiming that LLMs would change the world imminently, doomers contributed to the growth of LLM companies and to the White House thinking LLMs were critical to the nation's survival.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Public explanations may omit influences present in private deliberations.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Causal claim
“It has made dodgy companies that gave lip service to AI safety tremendously wealthy —on the promise, not yet delivered—that they could create AGI.”
Our reading: Doomer hype has made dodgy companies that gave lip service to AI safety tremendously wealthy on the not-yet-delivered promise that they could create AGI.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Financing and valuation are distinct measures and are used only as context.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Which (precisely because it is unreliable) may lead to the accidental acceleration of war.”
Our reading: Government use of unreliable AI in war may accidentally accelerate war.
No horizon
Qualifier: because the tech is unreliable
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And in so doing perhaps lead to thousands or millions of unnecessary deaths.”
Our reading: Governments' use of unreliable AI in war, by possibly leading to the accidental acceleration of war, may perhaps lead to thousands or millions of unnecessary deaths.
No horizon
Qualifier: via accidental acceleration of war
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“And we may wind up with a boy-who-cried wolf situation when true AGI does arrive.”
Our reading: When true AGI arrives, warnings may be ignored due to earlier false alarms.
No horizon
Only if: when true AGI does arrive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Now we all may wind up paying the consequences. I am fully with the doomers in wanting to prepare for the future, but that needs to start with a realistic assessment of the present.”
Our reading: Preparing for the AI future should begin with a realistic assessment of current AI.
No horizon
Held from this post (11)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: None of the qualitative concerns Marcus raises about LLMs had been solved, and expecting all of them to be solved within 24-36 months beggars belief.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Marcus finds it laughable that people think all of the listed LLM problems will be fully solved and put in production in the next three years.
- Attribution is uncertain
- The two reviews read the claim differently