If enough other companies report the same, the bubble pops. 🫧
We recorded 4 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 1 can’t be checked. 9 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (4)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
“None of this should be surprising; I have been pointing out the errors since the week ChatGPT was introduced in 2022, and study after study after study (I will go into this more in a later newsletter) has shown that most companies don’t seen a significant return on their AI investment.”
What we tested: Multiple studies have shown that most companies do not see a significant return on their AI investment.
What happened: PwC's survey of 4,454 CEOs directly reports a majority without significant financial benefits. Fieldwork occurred from September through November 2025. (PwC, )
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“Three companies that have not yet shown themselves to be profitable are expected to soon IPO for a total of something like four trillion dollars.”
What we tested: Three companies that have not shown profitability are expected to IPO soon at a combined value of roughly four trillion dollars.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“In which cases those stocks will eventually fall.”
What we tested: If enough customers have second thoughts, so that none of the three IPO'ing companies ever hits its long-term projections, those companies' stocks will eventually fall.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“A lot of banks may take a hint as well.”
What we tested: A lot of banks may take a hint as well.
Held from this post (9)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Uber used up its annual AI token budget within a few months and does not feel the spending is paying off as hoped.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Starbucks just shut down an AI inventory experiment because it realized the system couldn't be trusted.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Some companies are already, at least implicitly, reporting that AI spending is not paying off proportionally.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Index funds, a staple of many people's retirement funds, are going to be more or less forced to rapidly absorb the three not-yet-profitable companies expected to IPO soon, which he calls exercises in fantastical thinking.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: There are already signs that customer demand for AI is not endless.