Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Gary Marcus Marcus on AI Published

In the Iran war, it looks like AI helped with operations, not strategy

We recorded 5 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 2 can’t be checked. 1 more is held. Read the post at its source.

Claims from this post (5)

In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.

  1. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “I see at least three reasons off the top of my head, all of which should have been obvious before the bombs were dropped.”

    What we tested: The reasons AI is poor at war strategy should have been obvious before the US-Iran war began.

  2. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “First, strategy, more than e.g., writing requisition memos, requires a broad, deep understanding of the world, but generative AI has never had robust models of the world.”

    What we tested: Generative AI has never had robust world models, so it is poorly suited to strategy, which requires a broad, deep understanding of the world.

  3. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Third, there is the well-known tendency of generative AI to be sycophantic; to tell users that their ideas were the greatest ever, even when they are not.”

    What we tested: Generative AI tends to be sycophantic, telling users their ideas are excellent even when they are not.

    What happened: The dated 199-case snapshot tests agreement with opposing narrators while preserving the underlying dispute, finding sycophantic contradictions across all 16 configurations. Rates vary substantially, from 0.5% to 31.2%, so the evidence supports a recurring tendency rather than pervasive agreement in every model. (Lech Mazur, )

  4. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “AI is fine for writing memos; nobody should rely on it to plan a war or to guess its likely outcomes.”

    What we tested: Nobody should rely on AI to plan a war or to predict its likely outcomes.

  5. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “AI is fine for writing memos; nobody should rely on it to plan a war or to guess its likely outcomes.”

    What we tested: AI is adequate for writing memos.

Held from this post (1)

These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.