Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Gary Marcus Marcus on AI Published

Is OpenAI more like WeWork or Theranos?

We recorded 11 claims from this post. 4 were checked against evidence. 7 can’t be checked. 5 more are held. Read the post at its source.

Claims from this post (11)

In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.

  1. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “OpenAI might be screaming success - but its success is hardly assured.”

    What we tested: OpenAI's success is far from assured.

  2. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Without Microsoft’s unwavering support, they could find themselves in deep trouble.”

    What we tested: If OpenAI loses Microsoft's unwavering support, it could end up in deep trouble.

  3. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Meanwhile GPT-5 still hasn’t arrived, and nor has the much ballyhooed Sora.”

    What we tested: As of October 2024, neither GPT-5 nor Sora has been released.

  4. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Living up to OpenAI’s $150B valuation won’t be easy.”

    What we tested: OpenAI will find it hard to live up to its $150B valuation.

  5. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “When I think of OpenAI, I often think of WeWork: charismatic founder, immense valuation, questionable business plan, and the possibility of similar immense deflation in their valuation, if confidence wavers.”

    What we tested: Like WeWork, OpenAI has a questionable business plan and its valuation could deflate immensely if confidence wavers.

  6. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Those products have not by a longshot lived up to everyone’s expectations, but they do actually ship, and customers can try those products out and decide for themselves. It’s hard to call that smoke and mirrors.”

    What we tested: OpenAI's products have not by a longshot lived up to everyone's expectations, but they do actually ship and customers can try them, so it is hard to call OpenAI smoke and mirrors.

  7. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “But then again, their products have always been served with large side order of bullshit, like when Sam said, apparently jokingly, that “AGI has been achieved internally”. None of the robot stuff they promised in the Rubik’s cube campaign ever shipped.”

    What we tested: OpenAI's products have always come with lots of hype, and none of the robotics promised in its Rubik's cube campaign ever shipped.

  8. Assessment: ContradictedSaid

    “The difference between GPT-3 and GPT-4 was by all accounts massive; the difference between GPT-4 and o1 is by all accounts modest.”

    What we tested: By all accounts the difference between GPT-3 and GPT-4 was massive, while by all accounts the difference between GPT-4 and o1 is modest.

    What happened: The company reported substantial preference gains across three important reasoning domains for the actual preview model. This challenges the asserted agreement about only modest improvement, while remaining a company-run evaluation. (OpenAI, )

  9. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “If the answer isn’t bigger LLMs, we may have wasted half a decade.”

    What we tested: If bigger LLMs are not the answer, the field may have wasted half a decade.

  10. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “If things do fall apart, it is not just investors who stand to lose, but society. Immense resources may end up being wasted in vain, because of hype.”

    What we tested: If things with OpenAI do fall apart, society as well as investors stands to lose, and immense resources may end up being wasted in vain because of hype.

  11. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “AI ought to be looking itself in the mirror, too, right about now.”

    What we tested: The AI industry should take a hard look at its own hype, as biomedicine had to after Theranos.

Held from this post (5)

These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.