๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ! My conversation with Chinaโs Victor Gao plus a hot take on new essay by Anthropicโs CEO Dario Amodei
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 7 canโt be checked. 6 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speakerโs words in this post. A label such as โSupportedโ or โCanโt be checkedโ is the claimโs current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
โDeepSeek definitely has him rattled. The piece is a long and articulate, but also quite defensive.โ
What we tested: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is rattled by DeepSeek, and his essay is defensive.
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
โAmodei is correct that DeepSeek didn't do anything in terms of cost reductions that wouldn't have happened here before too long, anyway.โ
What we tested: DeepSeek's cost reductions were ones US labs would have achieved before long anyway.
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
โ(Still embarrassing to the US giants though that a leaner, hungrier startup abroad got there first.)โ
What we tested: It is still embarrassing to the US AI giants that a leaner, hungrier startup abroad (DeepSeek) got there first on cost reductions.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
โThe real lesson of DeepSeek is that we can still make vast improvements in efficency.โ
What we tested: DeepSeek shows that vast efficiency improvements in AI are still possible.
What happened: The report documents the training resources of the December V3 model and compares its performance with leading models. Its resource total covers the official training stages and excludes earlier research and ablation experiments; the comparative magnitude is supplied by e2. (DeepSeek-AI / arXiv, )
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
โThe country that does its best to develop a new tech that is more reliable and more difficult to replicate will win.โ
What we tested: The country that does its best to develop new AI technology that is more reliable and harder to replicate than LLMs will win the race.
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
โMy takeaway is different: the LLM race is an enormously expensive effort to win a race that can no longer be won.โ
What we tested: The LLM race is enormously expensive and can no longer be won by any country.
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
โWe should be thinking about how to sponsor innovation, and recognize that the best funded companies aren't always the most innovative. Going all in on them is a mistake.โ
What we tested: We should be thinking about how to sponsor innovation and recognize that the best-funded companies aren't always the most innovative, and going all in on them is a mistake.
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
โAmodei's biggest advantage is having more chips, and I understand him wanting to prosecute that advantage, but what we really need are better ideas, and the oxygen for innovative startups to breathe.โ
What we tested: Anthropic's main advantage is having more chips, but AI progress really needs better ideas and room for innovative startups.
Held from this post (6)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: China largely caught up in AI despite export controls, and the controls may have pushed it toward important efficiency gains.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: It is not known that building AI smarter than almost all humans requires millions of chips and tens of billions of dollars.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: US chip export controls on China have so far not been very successful and may have had paradoxical effects; the controls Amodei urges would help Anthropic.