No, Dario Amodei, we will not be curing cancer and “most human disease” in five to ten years
We recorded 5 claims from this post. 2 were checked against evidence. 3 can’t be checked. 4 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (5)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“(I further argued that we don’t really have the right kind of causally- and biologically-sophisticated AI yet. New advances in AI and math don’t fundamentally change what I wrote there.)”
Our reading: We don't really have the right kind of causally and biologically sophisticated AI yet, and new advances in AI and math don't fundamentally change what Marcus argued about this.
No horizon
Qualifier: don't really
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“The mood has changed, and this time a whole pile of people pushed back.”
Our reading: The mood has changed, and this time a large number of people pushed back on Amodei's claim that it will be possible to cure most human disease in about 5-10 years.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Selected social posts cannot establish population sentiment.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“AI might someday contribute as Hassabis says, but certainly not in the next decade.”
Our reading: AI will not make the disease-curing contributions Hassabis described within the next decade, though it might someday.
Not yet due Evidence as of
Limitation: The referenced interview's scope is broad and medically imprecise.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“But his habit of giving people unrealistic hope is not one of them.”
Our reading: Amodei has a habit of giving people unrealistic hope, and Marcus does not respect this about him.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In fairness, Amodei may believe what he says, but in that case he ought take Dr. Young’s suggestion of doing a medical internship, in order to better calibrate his understanding of the challenges in medicine.”
Our reading: If Amodei believes his claims, he should do a medical internship to better understand the challenges in medicine.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Amodei believes what he says
Held from this post (4)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: As far as Marcus knows, no AI company has presented a real plan for curing even one disease in 5-10 years.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- Attribution is uncertain