OpenAI’s “Code Red”
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 7 can’t be checked. 7 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“Things took longer to unravel than I thought they would, but OpenAI’s unraveling has begun.”
What we tested: OpenAI's unraveling has begun.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“That code red may in stem part from a recent exodus of users:”
What we tested: OpenAI's code red may stem in part from a recent exodus of users.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“Worse, they are burning billions of dollars of month.”
What we tested: OpenAI is burning billions of dollars per month.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“My guess is that they have cumulatively raised on the order of $100 billion since they launched, perhaps more than any other company in history, but have already spent most of it, and likely don’t have much more than a year’s runway left.”
What we tested: Marcus guesses that OpenAI has cumulatively raised on the order of $100 billion since launch, perhaps more than any other company in history, has already spent most of it, and likely has not much more than a year's runway left.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“If most or all opt out, OpenAI’s valuation could drop, perhaps precipitously, as happened with WeWork, which dropped rapidly from its peak of $47 billion to near-bankruptcy.”
What we tested: If most or all investors opt out, OpenAI's valuation could drop, perhaps precipitously, like WeWork's.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“And of course many other companies are also in close relationship with OpenAI, with a lot of future orders from them on the books. These too might drop.”
What we tested: If OpenAI drops, other companies with many future OpenAI orders on their books might also drop.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“If OpenAI drops, Nvidia might well also drop.”
What we tested: If OpenAI drops, Nvidia might well drop too.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“In the worse case, the government might seriously consider a bailout a taxpayer expense.”
What we tested: In the worst case, if OpenAI falls, the government might seriously consider a taxpayer-funded bailout.
Held from this post (7)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI has lost its lead and massively overextended itself.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI is troubled, with modest revenue far short of its trillion-dollar commitments, as shown by Altman's non-answer.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Because OpenAI is losing money and can't stand on its own for long, it is at the mercy of investors.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: If things continue to deteriorate, OpenAI's next funding round will be much harder to raise than the last.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Pension funds like CalPERS invested in OpenAI stand to take sizable losses if OpenAI cannot maintain its trajectory.