OpenAI’s lead is dwindling fast
We recorded 2 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 1 can’t be checked. 5 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (2)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“You can’t multiply your losses every year by 8x (or even close) for very long.”
Our reading: OpenAI cannot keep multiplying its losses by around 8x a year for very long.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: The first calendar year after the baseline had not ended at the evaluation date.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“To be sure, Washington might succeed in knee-capping Anthropic, rescuing Josh Kushner’s investment in OpenAI:”
Our reading: The US government might succeed in knee-capping Anthropic, which would protect Josh Kushner's investment in OpenAI.
No horizon
Held from this post (5)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Microsoft, long OpenAI's biggest backer, has been increasingly backing away from OpenAI.
- Attribution is uncertain
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: The lack of a moat, with everybody building the same thing, as Marcus predicted in January 2024, has been catching up to OpenAI ever since, and the market share numbers show it.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Because everybody is building the same thing, LLM companies can have no moat.
- The two reviews read the claim differently