Promises are cheap
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 2 were checked against evidence. 6 can’t be checked. 5 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“Or even how he eventually walked that back to 2026 (which also won’t happen).”
Our reading: Elon Musk's promise of a million Tesla robotaxis, pushed back to 2026, will not be fulfilled in 2026.
Not yet due Evidence as of
Limitation: The December 31, 2026 deadline had not passed at the October 28 evaluation date.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“Back on planet earth, according to December’s Remote Labor Index, only 2.5% of human “online tasks” (physical tasks were excluded) could be done by AI.”
Our reading: According to the December 2025 Remote Labor Index, AI could do only 2.5% of human online tasks.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The judgment depends on keeping the claim within the named benchmark’s scope.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Promises are cheap. And all the big tech CEOs have come to realize that making them costs them nothing.”
Our reading: All the big tech CEOs have come to realize that making promises costs them nothing.
No horizon
Scope: all the big tech CEOs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Tesla trades at nearly 400 times earnings not because they have ever made all that much money, but because Elon is a master of hype.”
Our reading: Tesla's valuation of nearly 400 times earnings is due to Musk's hype rather than profits.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The P/E figure comes from one financial press article (e1), not from audited data.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It would be nice if places like FT would refuse to play along, providing more context (about conflicts of interest and past prediction track records). It would also help if they would more regularly seek independent outside opinions.”
Our reading: Media outlets like the FT should give context on conflicts of interest and track records when reporting AI executives' predictions, and seek independent opinions.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Instead, too often media companies platform predictions from people who stand to gain immensely from their narratives, with too little skepticism.”
Our reading: Too often, media companies platform predictions from people who stand to gain immensely from their narratives, with too little skepticism.
No horizon
Qualifier: too often
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The public has not been well served by this practice.”
Our reading: The public has not been well served by media companies' practice of platforming predictions from people who stand to gain from their narratives with too little skepticism.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If the whole thing collapses, as many people fear, the careless repetition of hype by editors who love the “everything is about to change” narrative (always good for clicks) may well turn out to have been an important contributing factor.”
Our reading: If the AI boom collapses, careless media repetition of hype may turn out to have been an important contributing factor.
No horizon
Only if: if the whole thing (AI boom) collapses
Held from this post (5)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: As far as he knows, a lot of lawyers who use LLMs are having problems with hallucinations, and documented cases of lawyers called out in Damien Charlotin's database rose from 112 less than a year ago to 914, which he calls 8x growth in less than 12 months.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: The number of radiologists keeps growing, and in some communities there is a shortage of radiologists.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: As far as he knows, LLM hallucinations are still a serious problem.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently