Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Gary Marcus Marcus on AI Published

Sam Altman and the day Nvidia’s meteoric rise came to an end

We recorded 9 claims from this post. 2 were checked against evidence. 7 can’t be checked. 12 more are held. Read the post at its source.

Claims from this post (9)

In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.

  1. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Aside from Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, a brilliant and impressive CEO with considerable foresight, nobody was more responsible for Nvidia’s rise than Sam Altman, the relentless showman who runs OpenAI — and who repeatedly promised the moon.”

    What we tested: Apart from Jensen Huang, nobody was more responsible for Nvidia's rise than Sam Altman, the showman who runs OpenAI and who repeatedly promised the moon.

  2. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “It turns out this was authoritative bullshit. It sounded true and was said with confidence, but it was purely a bluff.”

    What we tested: Altman's January 2025 claim that OpenAI was confident it knew how to build AGI was a bluff.

  3. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Nvidia’s rise was predicated on the wrong-headed idea (long critiqued in this newsletter) that scaling would bring us to AGI.”

    What we tested: Nvidia's rise rested on the mistaken idea that scaling would lead to AGI.

  4. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Altman didn’t actually know how to build AGI [artificial general intelligence] then, and probably still doesn’t.”

    What we tested: Altman did not know how to build AGI in January 2025 and probably still does not as of February 2026.

  5. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “That circularity is a warning sign, reflecting a market that is propped up rather than functioning well on its own accord.”

    What we tested: Circular financing in AI is a warning sign that the market is propped up rather than healthy.

  6. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Not an all out crash, but an unmistakable sign that its ascent has run out of gas.”

    What we tested: Nvidia's flat stock since August 2025 shows its rise has run out of gas, though it has not crashed.

    What happened: Nvidia closed at a record on Thursday, August 7, 2025, at about $180.7, implied from the Friday price and gain. This matches Marcus's 'about 181'. (Barron's (Dow Jones) via Tiger Brokers, )

  7. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “My guess is that these stocks – and the reputation of OpenAI – will fall further, but either way it is already clear that the rockets will not reach the altitude so many people were hoping for.”

    What we tested: AI tech stocks such as Nvidia, CoreWeave and Oracle, and OpenAI's reputation, will probably fall further.

  8. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “At last the market may be both ready—and desperate—for real AI.”

    What we tested: The market may now be ready, and desperate, for AI approaches beyond LLM hype.

  9. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “The best news here is that with LLM mania subsiding, there might actually be a chance for newcomers to try new things.”

    What we tested: With LLM mania subsiding, there might actually be a chance for newcomers to try new things.

Held from this post (12)

These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.