Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 2 were checked against evidence. 6 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI may indeed be turning out to be a dud, financially.”
Our reading: Generative AI may be turning out to be a financial dud.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And the bubble might possibly finally be deflating.”
Our reading: The generative AI bubble might possibly be deflating as of April 2025.
No horizon
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“models still don’t reason reliably (as anticipated in What to Expect When Your Expecting GPT-4)”
Our reading: LLMs still do not reason reliably as of April 2025.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The cited versions are preprints.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Every one of my 25 predictions for 2025 still seems to be on track.”
Our reading: As of April 2025, all 25 of Marcus's predictions for 2025 seem to be on track.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“the financial bubble may be bursting”
Our reading: The AI financial bubble may be bursting as of April 2025.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Sam Altman can’t be trusted”
Our reading: Sam Altman cannot be trusted.
No horizon
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
Observation
“Scaling has run out (like I said it would)”
Our reading: Scaling of LLMs has run out as of April 2025.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The assessment interprets 'run out' as cessation of meaningful capability gains, rather than poor economic returns.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“LLMs are not the way. We definitely need something better.”
Our reading: LLMs are not the right path for AI, and better alternative approaches are needed.
No horizon
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Trump's crew devastated the global economy with a tariff plan based in part on what they got from an LLM, and they did not even do the math correctly.
- The two reviews read the claim differently