Some disconcerting facts about AI and banking that may have profound consequences
We recorded 6 claims from this post. 2 were checked against evidence. 4 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (6)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“It was already clear by then that generative AI was probably going to lose a lot of money.”
What we tested: Generative AI is probably going to lose a lot of money.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“Although there is some clear value in it, the costs are high, and relative to those costs, the revenue has been modest.”
What we tested: Generative AI has some clear value, but its costs are high and its revenue has been modest relative to those costs.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“But it’s not just that a trillion dollars or more might go down the drain, but that there might be considerable collateral damage, to the rest of society, both economic and otherwise (e.g., in terms of how LLMs have undermined college education).”
What we tested: A trillion dollars or more invested in AI might be lost, with possible considerable economic and other collateral damage to society.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“But the unreliable statistical mimicry of Generative AI is unlikely to be the ticket to those massive productivity gain.”
What we tested: Generative AI, being unreliable statistical mimicry, is unlikely to deliver the anticipated massive productivity gains.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“Instead, the misguided obsession with large language models will likely cause a lot of pain over the next few years, economically and socially, until a new, far more reliable form of AI is developed.”
What we tested: The obsession with LLMs will likely cause substantial economic and social pain over the next few years, until a far more reliable form of AI is developed.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“Let me add that I do think that some form of AI will eventually actually yield the returns people were anticipating for Generative AI.”
What we tested: Some form of AI will eventually yield the returns people anticipated from generative AI.
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Marcus has a hard time seeing how the debt-financed AI data center buildout does not end badly, in a recession, maybe worse.