Technoptimism, TED, and The Road to the Future
We recorded 13 claims from this post. 5 were checked against evidence. 8 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (13)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“Microsoft’s Mustafa Suleyman promised that hallucinations would be cured “soon”, yet my X feed is still filled with examples like these from Princeton Professor Aleksandra Korolova:”
What we tested: Although Mustafa Suleyman promised that hallucinations would be cured "soon", Marcus's X feed was still filled with examples of AI hallucinations, such as those from Princeton Professor Aleksandra Korolova.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“I don’t see how we get to a positive AI future if we sweep all the problems under the rug.”
What we tested: Marcus does not see how a positive AI future can be reached if all of AI's problems are swept under the rug.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“I think Khosla’s timing (all this by 2049) might be off, perhaps by decades, but I don’t see why we can’t get to most of this eventually.”
What we tested: Khosla's predicted technological advances may not all arrive by 2049, perhaps being decades late, though most could be achieved eventually.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“A billion robots with a superficial understanding of the physical world would be a recipe for disaster.”
What we tested: Deploying a billion robots with only superficial understanding of the physical world would lead to disaster.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“We won’t get to a billion personal robots if they are as dodgy as driverless cars, frequently working, yet stymied often enough by outliers that we can’t fully count on them.”
What we tested: A billion personal robots will not be deployed if robots are as unreliable with outliers as driverless cars are.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“But we can only get there if we can face the limitations and risks honestly.”
What we tested: Technologies that improve the world can only be reached if we can face their limitations and risks honestly.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“Khosla is a venture capitalist, and I think venture capitalists will have a huge role in whether or not we get to the promised land.”
What we tested: Marcus thinks venture capitalists will have a huge role in whether or not we get to the promised land of world-improving technology.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“Dreamers who promise far more than they are likely to deliver are getting almost all the money, and (at least in AI) they are getting so much money for a path that it is unlikely to work that they are leaving too little oxygen for the exploration of new ideas that might work.”
What we tested: Dreamers who promise far more than they are likely to deliver are getting almost all the money, and, at least in AI, they are getting so much money for a path unlikely to work that too little oxygen is left for exploring new ideas that might work.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“Dreamers who promise far more than they are likely to deliver are getting almost all the money, and (at least in AI) they are getting so much money for a path that it is unlikely to work that they are leaving too little oxygen for the exploration of new ideas that might work.”
What we tested: The dominant, heavily funded current AI approach is unlikely to work.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“Right now I think the current net effect of venture capital is not great.”
What we tested: Marcus thinks that right now the net effect of venture capital is not great.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“I doubt that anyone with a short leash can achieve the breakthroughs we will need, if we are to get to the optimistic future so many of us would like to see.”
What we tested: AI efforts funded on a short leash are unlikely to achieve the breakthroughs needed for an optimistic AI future.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“There is also a hostility in some parts of Silicon Valley right now to regulation. This a mistake.”
What we tested: The hostility to regulation in some parts of Silicon Valley right now is a mistake.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“Policies around transparency, auditing and interpretability might not be as sexy as alien intelligences, but without it, we will see more and more public resistance to AI.”
What we tested: Without transparency, auditing and interpretability policies, public resistance to AI will increase.
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- Attribution is uncertain
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Helen Toner was let go from OpenAI's board, and none of the new board members have a background in AI ethics similar to hers, both of which Marcus finds worrisome.