The bad news: AI is going pretty much as I expected
We recorded 7 claims from this post. 5 were checked against evidence. 2 can’t be checked. 3 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (7)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“The notion on which this Substack was founded in May 2022 — that LLM scaling would not bring us to AGI — has gone mainstream.”
Our reading: The view that LLM scaling will not bring AGI has become mainstream.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The survey was academically weighted and was not a representative industry poll.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“that LLM scaling would not bring us to AGI”
Our reading: Scaling LLMs will not produce AGI.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: There is no universally accepted AGI test.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“Perhaps I also no longer need to warn people that the idea that coding would disappear soon is bullshit.”
Our reading: Human coding will not disappear soon due to AI.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: This leaves the forecast open because of its timing, not because the evidence shows human coding disappeared.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“The concerns about potential copyright violations that Reid Southen and I expressed here in and at greater length in the IEEE Spectrum in January 2024 continue almost two years later to be a problem.”
Our reading: Copyright violation concerns with generative AI remain a problem as of September 2025.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: A lawsuit establishes a live allegation, not that the defendant infringed.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“Meanwhile, more darkly, the Jurassic Park moment of mass-produced AI-generated misinformation that I projected in December 2022 has arrived.”
Our reading: Mass-produced AI-generated misinformation has arrived at scale.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The investigation establishes AI-generated narration, not autonomous authorship of every script.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“If there is any true exponential nowadays, I fear it is this: the rapid doubling of AI-generated misinformation.”
Our reading: Marcus fears that, if there is any true exponential nowadays, it is the rapid doubling of AI-generated misinformation.
No horizon
Qualifier: if there is any true exponential nowadays
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Let us all hope that we can learn something from the mistakes of the last few years, and find a new path — to an AI that better serves humanity.”
Our reading: Marcus hopes that we all can learn something from the mistakes of the last few years and find a new path to an AI that better serves humanity.
No horizon
Qualifier: let us all hope
Held from this post (3)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: As far as Marcus knows, the problem of generative AI producing wildly derivative outputs has not gone away.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently