The Generative AI Fizzle™
We recorded 7 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 4 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (7)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“They might, but maybe what we will see is more like a slow decline, as investors lose enthusiasm for the ratio between hype (insane) and profits (not that impressive thus far).”
Our reading: AI valuations may decline slowly rather than all at once, as investors lose enthusiasm given insane hype relative to unimpressive profits.
No horizon
Qualifier: as investors lose enthusiasm for the hype-to-profit ratio
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“To be sure I don’t expect LLMs to disappear anytime soon but the valuations and market caps we are currently seeing may eventually be seen as ludicrous.”
Our reading: Current AI valuations and market caps may eventually be seen as ludicrous.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Yesterday a new Chinese, open-source model came out that might make all of this drastically worse for the US LLM companies:”
Our reading: A new Chinese open-source model might make commoditization, price wars and elusive profits drastically worse for US LLM companies.
No horizon
Qualifier: due to new Chinese open-source model
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“In my view, the world has indeed gone in this direction. LLMs have become commodities, prices wars have been significant, profits for the LLM providers have been elusive.”
Our reading: LLMs have become commodities.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The meaning of commodities materially affects the assessment.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“In my view, the world has indeed gone in this direction. LLMs have become commodities, prices wars have been significant, profits for the LLM providers have been elusive.”
Our reading: Price wars among LLM providers have been significant.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The clearest evidence of directly responsive price cutting concerns China.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“In my view, the world has indeed gone in this direction. LLMs have become commodities, prices wars have been significant, profits for the LLM providers have been elusive.”
Our reading: Profits for LLM providers have been elusive.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The unresolved verdict does not mean the identified providers were profitable.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If GenAI-mania does fall apart, slowly or suddenly, it’s a big deal, especially given the growing amount of debt.”
Our reading: If generative AI mania falls apart, slowly or suddenly, it will be a big deal, especially given growing debt.
No horizon
Only if: if GenAI-mania falls apart, slowly or suddenly
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.