The month Generative AI lost its mojo
We recorded 10 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 7 can’t be checked. 8 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (10)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I will not be surprised if their IPO plans fall apart, too”
Our reading: OpenAI's IPO plans may fall apart, as WeWork's did.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“However you slice it, the delay reflects a lack of confidence.”
Our reading: OpenAI's IPO delay reflects a lack of confidence.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We are perhaps already seeing evidence for that”
Our reading: There is perhaps already evidence that OpenAI's troubles are hurting companies it does business with.
No horizon
Assessment: MixedSaid
Observation
“SpaceX, increasingly pitched as an AI play, has lost steam (up slightly for the day, but down 11.74% for the week), and its bonds are doing badly, too:”
Our reading: SpaceX, increasingly pitched as an AI play, has lost steam, being up slightly for the day but down 11.74% for the week, and its bonds are doing badly too.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The exact intraday snapshot and chart baseline are missing.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“• Chinese models are gaining traction, fast.”
Our reading: Chinese AI models are rapidly gaining market traction.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The observations do not cover the full June 1–25 target period or establish continuous growth within it.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“As I have said before, over and over, LLMs are becoming a commodity.”
Our reading: LLMs are becoming a commodity.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The principal June source is a model marketplace with a commercial interest in offering multiple vendors.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“None of this bodes well for the US AI industry.”
Our reading: Recent developments (IPO delay, stock declines, policy chaos, Chinese competition, commoditization) bode poorly for the US AI industry.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And, again, the WSJ prediction of a positive quarter that Smith pointed to was speculation; it’s not at all clear that it will actually come to pass, given all that happened since then.”
Our reading: It is not at all clear that Anthropic will actually report the profitable quarter WSJ predicted.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Even Polymarket sees it now; the game has changed:”
Our reading: The game has changed, and even Polymarket now sees it.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If the argument I laid out there is remotely correct, hyperscaling could prove to be among the biggest financial blunders in history.”
Our reading: If his FT argument is even remotely correct, hyperscaling could prove to be among the biggest financial blunders in history.
No horizon
Only if: if his FT argument is remotely correct
Held from this post (8)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Over the last month, Nvidia is down over 8%, Oracle about 22%, CoreWeave a bit over 4%, Microsoft 10%, and Cerebras 32%, and SoftBank is down about 12%.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Smith's conclusion that there is no bubble doesn't follow, because the chart Smith shared shows that revenue is up but not that profitability is up or that it can be sustained.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- Attribution is uncertain
- The two reviews read the claim differently