There are no heroes in commercial AI
We recorded 14 claims from this post. 4 were checked against evidence. 10 can’t be checked. 9 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (14)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“As bad as Sam Altman is, Dario Amodei isn’t all that different.”
Our reading: Dario Amodei is not all that different from Sam Altman.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In Iran, I am going to suppose that humans were in the loop (about which I will say more in a moment) but even so the results probably already have been disastrous.”
Our reading: The results of AI-assisted targeting in Iran have probably already been disastrous, even supposing humans were in the loop.
No horizon
Qualifier: even with humans in the loop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The thing about including humans in the loop is that if the AI is selecting 80 targets an hour, as has been reported, the humans probably aren’t going to do a good job verifying those targets.”
Our reading: If the AI is selecting 80 targets an hour, as has been reported, the humans in the loop probably aren't going to do a good job verifying those targets.
No horizon
Only if: if the AI is selecting 80 targets an hour
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We have seen it before in law (hallucinated cases that wind up in submitted briefs), journalism, and so on. Now we are (likely) seeing it in war.”
Our reading: Overtrust in AI, already seen in law and journalism, is likely now being seen in war.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Wright may well be right that Anthropic’s Claude selected the school; it would be hardly surprising if accidents like these happened.”
Our reading: Claude may well have selected the Iranian elementary school that was struck.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Claude is (or at least was, and may again be) part of the war machine; even with humans putatively in the loop, it may have been responsible for many deaths.”
Our reading: Claude is, or at least was and may again be, part of the war machine, and even with humans putatively in the loop it may have been responsible for many deaths.
No horizon
Qualifier: even with humans putatively in the loop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In many other ways, Amodei pretty much follows Sam Altman’s playbook, of constant hype and overpromising, frequently moving deadlines back and rarely taking responsibility.”
Our reading: In many other ways, Amodei pretty much follows Altman's playbook of constant hype and overpromising, frequently moving deadlines back and rarely taking responsibility.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This does not endorse or reject Marcus's characterization.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Both, for example, have endlessly hinted that AGI is near, and just quietly moved the deadline back when they didn’t deliver.”
Our reading: Amodei and Altman have repeatedly hinted AGI is near and quietly moved the deadline back when it didn't arrive.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Evidence for individual components does not settle the compound claim.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“AI can help in the search for candidate drugs, but we still need to test them. There is zero chance that we double human life span in the next decade.”
Our reading: There is zero chance that human life span is doubled in the next decade.
Not yet due Evidence as of
Limitation: The lifespan measure, population and March 2026 baseline remain unspecified.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Amodei’s claims are ludicrous, at best. And plain dishonest, at worst.”
Our reading: Amodei's claims about AI are ludicrous at best and dishonest at worst.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Apocalyptic talk is a special case of hype, Sam and Dario both play that card over and over, basically amounting to saying “our tech is so scary it might ruin society, so give us more money so we can make that tech ever faster.””
Our reading: Altman and Amodei both repeatedly use apocalyptic talk, a special case of hype, which basically amounts to saying their tech is so scary it might ruin society so they should be given more money to build it ever faster.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Hype is an opinion rather than a separately measurable fact.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“In many ways, Amodei and Anthropic are simply speedrunning Altman’s fall from grace.”
Our reading: Amodei and Anthropic are rapidly following Altman's fall from grace.
No horizon
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“How about copyright? OpenAI notoriously trained on practically anything that is “publicly available” whether public domain or not.”
Our reading: OpenAI trained on practically anything publicly available, whether public domain or not.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Support applies to broad use including copyrighted material, not a numerical interpretation of “practically anything.”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“But aside from his courageous stand on mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons, Dario is more like Sam than almost anyone I can think of.”
Our reading: Aside from his courageous stand on mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons, Amodei is more like Altman than almost anyone Marcus can think of.
No horizon
Qualifier: aside from his courageous stand on mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons
Held from this post (9)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: It is not remotely plausible that AGI, under its original definitions, arrives within the 2-3 years from August 2023 that Amodei predicted.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: The US defense department was actively using Claude for targeting before and after Amodei's dispute with it, presumably with Anthropic's consent and likely its assistance.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: LLM-based agents, which Anthropic profits from, are expensive to run, unreliable and extremely difficult to secure.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: AI will not become smarter than Nobel Prize winners across most science and engineering fields as Amodei claimed.