Two takes on AI and the future of America
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 2 were checked against evidence. 6 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“And now, this morning, I read that even in coding, the flagship application of generate AI, trouble is brewing:”
What we tested: Trouble is brewing even in coding, the flagship application of generative AI.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
“But many others have found that LLMs are not quite as advertised.”
What we tested: Many others have found that LLMs are not quite as good as advertised.
What happened: The January–June research documents deployment shortfalls across interviewed organizations. August 20 is a verified public-availability bound, not an asserted exact release date for the July-dated report. (Project NANDA authors; copy hosted by MLQ, )
Assessment: SupportedSaid
“This is in line with the July METR study showing that coding tools sometimes impair productivity rather than increasing it.”
What we tested: The July METR study showed that AI coding tools sometimes impair productivity rather than increase it.
What happened: The July paper reports increased completion time in a randomized trial involving 16 experienced developers and 246 tasks. This directly supports the limited word 'sometimes.' (METR authors via arXiv, )
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“Needless to say, the speculative America, buying chips and building data centers on the hope that it will pay off, is at odds with the growing disappointment.”
What we tested: Speculative US investment in chips and data centers conflicts with growing disappointment in generative AI.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“In the worst case, as I have warned before, we may hear shouts of “too big to fail” and calls for government bailouts.”
What we tested: In the worst case, there may be 'too big to fail' claims and calls for government bailouts of the AI industry.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“We could easily wind up with too many data centers, and a lot of chips that rapidly lose their value.”
What we tested: The US could easily end up with too many data centers and chips that rapidly lose value.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“And, honestly, I think that is the most likely scenario.”
What we tested: Marcus thinks the most likely scenario is the worst case he described, in which too many data centers and rapidly devaluing chips lead to shouts of 'too big to fail' and calls for government bailouts.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“Going all in on Generative AI, without diversifying intellectually and economically, is likely an immense mistake.”
What we tested: Going all in on generative AI without intellectual and economic diversification is likely an immense mistake for the nation.
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Salesforce is retreating from its enthusiasm for LLMs, warning they are not trustworthy.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: Silicon Valley and the White House appear to be betting heavily on LLMs leading to AGI and a redefined economy.