Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Ed Zitron Where's Your Ed At Published

Am I Meant To Be Impressed?

We recorded 45 claims from this post. 21 were checked against evidence. 24 can’t be checked. 27 more are held. Read the post at its source.

Claims from this post (45)

In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.

  1. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “By the end of 2027, big tech will have sunk $2 trillion into AI capex, with very little to show for it.”

    What we tested: By the end of 2027 big tech will have spent $2 trillion on AI capex with very little to show for it.

  2. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Meta, on the other hand, has little real AI story, and can’t even seem to get its metrics straight on what AI is doing for the company”

    What we tested: Meta has little real AI story and can't even seem to get its metrics straight on what AI is doing for the company.

  3. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “These fucknuts have spent over a trillion dollars on AI and all they have to show for it is either nothing, vague statements about “everything lifting because of AI,” or pathetic revenues that only get worse the more you think about them.”

    What we tested: Big tech has spent over $1 trillion on AI with only nothing, vague claims, or pathetic revenues to show for it.

  4. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “OpenAI Represents 70%+ Of Microsoft’s AI Revenue and 80%+ Of Its AI GPU Compute Capacity, Creating The Illusion Of Growth That’s Dependent On A Company That Will Lose $25 Billion+ In 2026”

    What we tested: OpenAI represents 70% or more of Microsoft's AI revenue and 80% or more of its AI GPU compute capacity, creating an illusion of growth that depends on a company that will lose $25 billion or more in 2026.

  5. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Based on my own reporting from direct Azure revenue numbers, this would make OpenAI’s $2.947 billion in inference spend in that quarter around 71% ($11.7bn) of Microsoft’s Q3 FY2025 AI revenue run rate.”

    What we tested: Based on his own reporting from direct Azure revenue numbers, OpenAI's $2.947 billion in inference spend that quarter (about $11.7 billion annualized) would be around 71% of Microsoft's Q3 FY2025 AI revenue run rate.

  6. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Today I can report, based on discussions with sources with direct knowledge of Azure revenue, that in Q2 FY2025, Microsoft brought in around $325.2 million in revenue via renting out GPUs and other AI infrastructure, and around $367 million in revenue from Microsoft 365 Copilot, or less than half of the $1.467 billion that OpenAI spent on inference.”

    What we tested: In Q2 FY2025 Microsoft made about $325.2M from AI infrastructure rental and $367M from M365 Copilot, less than half of OpenAI's $1.467B inference spend.

  7. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “While I only had half the fourth quarter’s numbers, I estimate that OpenAI’s annualized spend hit over $18.5 billion — or around $4.6 billion a quarter — by the end of the year, and that’s not accounting for things like Sora 2 or the launch of its Codex coding platform.”

    What we tested: He estimates, from only half of Q4's numbers, that OpenAI's annualized Azure inference spend hit over $18.5 billion (around $4.6 billion a quarter) by the end of 2025, not counting things like Sora 2 or the Codex launch.

  8. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Otherwise, Microsoft’s 20 million Copilot 365 subscribers likely pay no more than $7 billion a year.”

    What we tested: Microsoft's 20 million Copilot 365 subscribers likely pay no more than $7 billion a year.

  9. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “I’ve also confirmed that Microsoft’s “Fairwater” data centers — which constitute (when finished) “hundreds of thousands of GPUs” — are entirely reserved for OpenAI.”

    What we tested: Microsoft's Fairwater data centers are entirely reserved for OpenAI.

  10. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Microsoft desperately wants you to think that this is a diverse, booming revenue stream, when in fact it’s spent around $293 billion in four years to make — when you remove OpenAI — less than $3 billion a quarter in revenue, not profit.”

    What we tested: Excluding OpenAI, Microsoft makes under $3 billion a quarter in AI revenue after spending about $293 billion in four years.

  11. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Google has intentionally bucketed AI-related revenue into Google Cloud so that finance and tech journalists will claim that AI is what’s driving this growth despite there being no proof that that’s the case.”

    What we tested: Google intentionally lumps AI revenue into Google Cloud so journalists credit AI for growth without proof.

  12. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “One of the reasons that Google might not want to break out its AI revenues is that they’re — much like Amazon — heavily-inflated by Anthropic’s compute spend.”

    What we tested: Google may not break out AI revenue because it is heavily inflated by Anthropic's compute spend.

  13. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “These periods match up exactly to Anthropic’s big jumps in revenue from Q2 2025 (around $3 billion ARR) to Q3 2025 (around $7 billion ARR) to Q4 2025 (around $9 billion ARR) to Q1 2026 (around $19 billion ARR), which suggests that Anthropic’s growth is what’s actually boosting Google Cloud.”

    What we tested: Google Cloud's growth periods match Anthropic's big revenue jumps from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026, which suggests Anthropic's growth is what is actually boosting Google Cloud.

  14. Assessment: ContradictedSaid

    “It’s a pretty sweet deal for Google! Google pays Broadcom to develop TPUs, Anthropic pays Google to buy those TPUs once Broadcom builds them, Google installs those TPUs in a data center, and then Anthropic pays Google to rent them back.”

    What we tested: Google and Anthropic run a circular arrangement where Anthropic buys Google TPUs and then rents them back from Google.

    What happened: The surrounding disclosure identifies Broadcom as the equipment-lease counterparty and deployment in dedicated facilities operated on Anthropic's behalf. The filing dates the relevant agreement to March 31, establishing that the different rental structure preceded the post. (Anthropic, PBC / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, )

  15. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “This isn’t real demand!”

    What we tested: Anthropic's circular TPU arrangement with Google does not represent real demand.

  16. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Google, Microsoft and Amazon’s AI Revenues Are Almost Entirely Based on Circular Financing Relationships That Should Be Illegal”

    What we tested: Google, Microsoft and Amazon's AI revenues rest almost entirely on circular financing relationships, which should be illegal.

  17. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “These relationships are utterly poisonous, and an intentional attempt to deceive investors and the general public.”

    What we tested: The circular hyperscaler-AI lab relationships are an intentional attempt to deceive investors and the public.

  18. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Only Microsoft was smart enough to realize the problem, which is why it allowed Oracle to take over the majority of OpenAI’s future capacity (which may kill Oracle, by the way!), but both Google and Amazon keep feeding Anthropic money so that Anthropic can feed it right back to them.”

    What we tested: Taking over the majority of OpenAI's future capacity may kill Oracle.

  19. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Most of Amazon, Google and Microsoft’s capex is being driven into capacity mostly used by OpenAI and Anthropic, neither of whom have the money to pay without continual infusions of more capital.”

    What we tested: Most of Amazon, Google and Microsoft's capex is going into capacity mostly used by OpenAI and Anthropic, neither of which has the money to pay without continual infusions of more capital.

  20. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Anthropic and OpenAI make up the vast majority of all AI revenues and compute capacity. I estimate 70% of all revenues and capacity demand, if not higher.”

    What we tested: Anthropic and OpenAI make up the vast majority of all AI revenues and compute capacity, which he estimates at 70% of all revenues and capacity demand, if not higher.

  21. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “OpenAI and Anthropic both lose tens of billions of dollars a year (yes, Anthropic said it’ll lose $11 billion in a projection, and I believe they are being coy with their actual losses), which means that the majority of AI revenue and compute demand is dependent on whether Anthropic and OpenAI can continue to raise money.”

    What we tested: OpenAI and Anthropic each lose tens of billions a year, so most AI revenue and compute demand depends on their ability to keep raising money.

  22. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “I’m gonna be honest, I think Anthropic is outright misleading its investors if it’s saying that it will only burn $11 billion in 2026 and 2027, per The Information”

    What we tested: He thinks Anthropic is outright misleading its investors if it is saying it will only burn $11 billion in 2026 and 2027.

  23. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “In fact, I’d argue that Anthropic is having to raise this money to pay up front for capacity that’s yet to be built.”

    What we tested: He would argue that Anthropic is having to raise this money to pay up front for capacity that has yet to be built.

  24. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “If it were an ethical business, it would simply stop taking on new clients, much like GitHub Copilot did as it transitions to token-based billing.”

    What we tested: Anthropic should stop taking on new clients while capacity-constrained.

  25. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “This is an ugly, wasteful, distressed company that has no idea what to do anymore, run by a mad king who literally cannot be fired”

    What we tested: Meta is a wasteful, distressed company with no idea what to do.

  26. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “To be clear, I don’t think any of these companies die as a result of the bubble bursting”

    What we tested: Meta, Microsoft, Google and Amazon will not die as a result of the AI bubble bursting.

  27. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Let’s get specific: 2023, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta have spent a little over $850 billion in capex, mostly hoarding NVIDIA GPUs that will be near-to-completely obsolete by 2030.”

    What we tested: The NVIDIA GPUs big tech bought with ~$850B capex since 2023 will be nearly completely obsolete by 2030.

  28. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Remember: Microsoft and Amazon are intentionally obfuscating their AI revenues by using “annualized” — a term they refuse to define that usually refers to a monthly figure times 12 — to define something in statements related to quarterly revenue.”

    What we tested: Microsoft and Amazon intentionally obfuscate AI revenue by reporting undefined annualized figures.

  29. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “I also want to be clear about something else: I know, from documents viewed by this publication, that Microsoft has these line items fully itemized, and could share them if it wanted to, but intentionally chooses not to.”

    What we tested: Microsoft has fully itemized AI revenue line items and intentionally chooses not to disclose them.

  30. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “These companies are deliberately refusing to share their AI revenues: and it’s time for the tech and business media to begin asking them why!”

    What we tested: The media should ask big tech why they deliberately refuse to share AI revenues.

  31. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Outside of OpenAI and Anthropic, there’s barely any actual demand for AI services or AI compute at the scale necessary to substantiate a trillion or more in capital expenditures.”

    What we tested: Outside OpenAI and Anthropic there is barely any AI demand at the scale needed to justify a trillion dollars in capex.

  32. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “In reality, they’re the paypigs for Anthropic and OpenAI, providing more than 70% of their compute as a means of artificially inflating their AI revenues, knowing that analysts and the media will nod and smile without a single thought.”

    What we tested: Microsoft, Amazon and Google are paypigs for Anthropic and OpenAI, providing more than 70% of their compute as a means of artificially inflating their AI revenues, knowing analysts and the media will not question it.

  33. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “The story of massive AI demand is a lie — a trillion dollars annihilated to create the largest circle jerk of all time.”

    What we tested: The story of massive AI demand is a lie built on circular spending.

  34. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Outside of those two, the only other competitive AI businesses are those of Amazon, Microsoft and Google — two of which now have annualized AI revenues of around 6% of their capital expenditures so far.”

    What we tested: Outside OpenAI and Anthropic, the only other competitive AI businesses are those of Amazon, Microsoft and Google, two of which now have annualized AI revenues of around 6% of their capital expenditures so far.

  35. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “Every single one of these companies is talking about AI non-stop, and not one of them can show a profit.”

    What we tested: Every one of the big tech companies under discussion is talking about AI non-stop, and not one of them can show a profit from it.

  36. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “The only reason Google, Amazon and Microsoft are being tolerated at their current excess is because their non-AI segments continue to grow through endless price-increases and enshittification, and its external business units — by which I mean OpenAI and Anthropic — are yet to die.”

    What we tested: The only reason Google, Amazon and Microsoft are tolerated at their current excess is that their non-AI segments keep growing through endless price increases and enshittification, and OpenAI and Anthropic have yet to die.

  37. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “If this breaks OpenAI I’ll be very surprised, but if it does it would be extremely fitting that Elon would accidentally destroy the AI industry, like Mr. Bean sitting on a button that launches a nuke.”

    What we tested: It is unlikely that Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI breaks OpenAI.

  38. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “This is effectively killing the product as they know it, and invalidates every single story about its revenue growth ever written.”

    What we tested: Microsoft shifting GitHub Copilot to token-based billing is effectively killing the product as they know it and invalidates every story about its revenue growth ever written.

  39. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Google and Amazon realize their AI revenues are contingent on the continued survival of Anthropic, and Amazon and Microsoft’s revenues are contingent on OpenAI AND Anthropic.”

    What we tested: Google and Amazon realize their AI revenues are contingent on Anthropic's continued survival, and Amazon and Microsoft's revenues are contingent on both OpenAI and Anthropic.

  40. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “It’s a mess, and a mistake, and eventually one of them is going to grow tired of it.”

    What we tested: The arrangement is a mess and a mistake, and eventually one of the hyperscalers is going to grow tired of it.

  41. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “At some point these fucknuts are going to be forced to reckon with what they’re doing.”

    What we tested: At some point the hyperscalers are going to be forced to reckon with what they are doing.

  42. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “I truly think that it’s going to be like this if not crazier until one day when the music suddenly stops. Somebody is going to blink.”

    What we tested: The AI frenzy will continue or intensify until it suddenly stops when someone blinks.

  43. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “At the current rate of sales, it’s taking six months to install a quarter’s GPUs. At this point it’s obvious that there are warehouses of these things.”

    What we tested: It takes about six months to install a quarter's GPU sales, so uninstalled GPUs are piling up in warehouses.

  44. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “It’s the largest bubble in history, and has reached such an intellectual and financial scale that many have taken sides on it in a way that will be completely impossible to walk back if they’re wrong.”

    What we tested: AI is the largest bubble in history and has reached such a scale that many have taken sides in a way that will be impossible to walk back if they are wrong.

  45. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “As things deteriorate, expect them to cling to their mythologies tighter and become more agitated.”

    What we tested: As the AI situation deteriorates, boosters will cling more tightly to their narratives and grow more agitated.

Held from this post (27)

These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.