Desperate Times, Desperate Measures
We recorded 15 claims from this post. 8 were checked against evidence. 7 can’t be checked. 11 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (15)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
“At this point, no real information exists.”
What we tested: As of May 2025, no real information exists about the AI device OpenAI and Jony Ive are developing.
What happened: Specific intended form-factor exclusions were publicly reported before the post. The article attributes the information to Journal reporting based on an internal recording; it does not establish a finished design. (The Decoder, )
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“This deal reeks of desperation, and is, at best, a way for venture capitalists that feel bad about investing in Jony Ive's lack of productivity to get stock in OpenAI, a company that also doesn't build much product.”
What we tested: OpenAI's Io deal reeks of desperation and is, at best, a way for venture capitalists who feel bad about investing in Jony Ive's lack of productivity to get stock in OpenAI, which also doesn't build much product.
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
“We're three joyless years into this crap, and there isn't a single consumer product of note other than ChatGPT, a product that gained its momentum through a hype campaign driven by press and markets that barely understood what they were hyping.”
What we tested: After three years of generative AI, there is no notable consumer LLM product other than ChatGPT, whose momentum came from hype by press and markets that barely understood it.
What happened: Google reported substantial actual use of a consumer LLM application other than ChatGPT before the post. That is a clear counterexample under the ordinary adoption-based reading of of note. (Google, )
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
“Despite all that media and investor attention — despite effectively the entirety of the tech industry focusing on this one specific thing — we're still yet to get any real consumer product.”
What we tested: Despite the media and investor attention and effectively the entire tech industry focusing on large language models, there is still no real consumer product from them other than ChatGPT.
What happened: The disclosed usage establishes that Gemini was an extensively used consumer application before the post. Together with its documented functions, it supplies a counterexample. (Google, )
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“OpenAI didn't acquire Jony Ive's company to build anything — it did so that it could increase the valuation of OpenAI in the hopes that it can raise larger rounds of funding.”
What we tested: OpenAI bought Io to raise its valuation and secure larger funding rounds, not to build anything.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“It has no moat, its models are hitting the point of diminishing returns and have been for some time, and as popular as ChatGPT may be, it isn't a business and constantly loses money.”
What we tested: OpenAI's models are hitting diminishing returns and have been for some time.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“It has no moat, its models are hitting the point of diminishing returns and have been for some time, and as popular as ChatGPT may be, it isn't a business and constantly loses money.”
What we tested: ChatGPT, however popular, isn't a business and constantly loses money.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“On top of that, it requires more money than has ever been invested in a startup.”
What we tested: OpenAI needs more money than has ever been invested in a startup.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“At this point, it isn't obvious how SoftBank affords the next part of that funding, and OpenAI using stock rather than cash to buy Jony Ive's company suggests that it doesn’t have much to spare.”
What we tested: OpenAI paying for Io in stock suggests it has little cash to spare, and it is unclear how SoftBank will afford its next OpenAI funding tranche.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“OpenAI’s operating costs are insane, and the company has already committed to several grand projects, while also pushing deeper and deeper into the red.”
What we tested: OpenAI's operating costs are insane and its losses keep growing even as it commits to grand projects.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“I cannot express how unlikely it is that this happens. Silicon is even harder than hardware!”
What we tested: OpenAI is very unlikely to launch its custom AI chip with Broadcom in the next year.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“Even one of these projects would be considered a stretch.”
What we tested: Even one of OpenAI's planned projects (100M-unit device, Stargate Texas and UAE online, Broadcom chip) would be a stretch within the next year.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“OpenAI is a loser of a company run by a career liar that cannot ship product, only further iterations of an increasingly-commoditized series of Large Language Models.”
What we tested: OpenAI is a loser of a company run by a career liar that cannot ship product, only further iterations of an increasingly commoditized series of large language models.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“Microsoft shouldn't budge a fucking inch.”
What we tested: Microsoft should concede nothing to OpenAI in negotiations over its for-profit conversion.
Held from this post (11)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Oracle is building Stargate at a scale it has never built at before, using a partner, Crusoe, that has never done this, for OpenAI, which regularly underestimates the demands it puts on its servers.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Consumer AI devices are a category that has categorically failed to catch on, and the $1 trillion in added value Altman suggested for the Io acquisition would mean nearly quadrupling OpenAI's valuation.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: (Sarcastic) Altman and Ive will not create a successful new consumer AI device that sells 100 million units within a year.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Stargate Texas depends on Crusoe, which has never built an AI data center and must build at record speed.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: If OpenAI fails to become a for-profit and its funding rounds convert to debt (which he suggests may happen), it will have even less money for vanity projects.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: ChatGPT loses OpenAI billions of dollars a year, and Sam Altman has failed to build any other new consumer-facing product.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: The whole Stargate Texas project depends on debt financing.