OpenAI Projects ChatGPT Plus subscriptions to drop by 80% from 44 Million in 2025 to 9 Million In 2026, Made Up Using Cheaper Subscriptions (Somehow)
We recorded 4 claims from this post. 2 were checked against evidence. 2 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (4)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Eager math-knowers in the audience will also realize that, if we assume a $5-a-month subscription cost, even if OpenAI succeeds in what would be the single-largest user acquisition campaign in history, it would still be $155 million short.”
Our reading: Assuming a $5-a-month subscription price, even if OpenAI succeeds in growing ChatGPT Go to its projected subscriber count (which he calls what would be the single-largest user acquisition campaign in history), the new Go revenue would still be $155 million short of the ChatGPT Plus revenue lost.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The monthly gap is not a realized annual revenue loss or a measure of profitability.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I imagine OpenAI's answer would be "we're going to be serving these customers ads" and "some of them will pay $8 a month," neither of which are substantive.”
Our reading: The answers he imagines OpenAI giving, that it will serve ChatGPT Go customers ads and that some of them will pay $8 a month, are not substantive responses to the revenue shortfall.
No horizon
Qualifier: I imagine OpenAI's answer would be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“I should also add that adding 109 million new subscribers at any price point will likely massively increase OpenAI's burn-rate.”
Our reading: If OpenAI adds 109 million new subscribers at any price, its burn rate will likely rise massively.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI adds 109 million new subscribers
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“I also just did a piece about how OpenAI will kill Oracle.”
Our reading: OpenAI will kill Oracle.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: The corporate-failure threshold and principal-cause requirement are evaluator interpretations of kill.
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI's projections show it expects a dramatic decline in its primary business line, $20-a-month ChatGPT Plus, and plans to add 109 million paying subscribers of a different product.
- Attribution is uncertain