Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Ed Zitron Where's Your Ed At Published

The Phony Comforts of AI Optimism

We recorded 21 claims from this post. 12 were checked against evidence. 9 can’t be checked. 26 more are held. Read the post at its source.

Claims from this post (21)

In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.

  1. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “I’m wary of putting too much stock into them, because they’re easily gamed, and quite often, they’re not an effective way of showing actual progress.”

    What we tested: AI benchmarks are easily gamed and often fail to show actual progress.

  2. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “That’s no discussion of the massive, world-changing consequences of a (again, totally theoretical, no proof this exists) artificial intelligence that's as smart and capable (again, how is it capable?) as a human being.”

    What we tested: Human-level AGI is totally theoretical and there is no proof it exists.

    What happened: The scientific synthesis describes uneven capabilities and continuing reasoning limitations rather than established general human equivalence. This supports the contextual reading when combined with the practical evaluation in e2. (International AI Safety Report, )

  3. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Cautious optimism allows Roose to learn as little as necessary to write his column, knowing that the market wants AI to work, even as facts scream that it doesn't.”

    What we tested: The facts show that AI doesn't work, even though the market wants it to.

  4. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “I, personally, believe that there should be.”

    What we tested: There should be repercussions for journalists being too optimistic about technologies like AI.

  5. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “and that generative AI has created a kind of capitalist death cult where nobody wants to admit that they're not making any money”

    What we tested: Generative AI has created a kind of capitalist death cult in which nobody wants to admit that they are not making any money.

  6. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “The ramifications of the end of hyper-growth mean a massive reckoning for the valuations of tech companies, which will lead to tens of thousands of layoffs and a prolonged depression in Silicon Valley, the likes of which we've never seen.”

    What we tested: The end of tech hyper-growth will cause a massive valuation reckoning, tens of thousands of layoffs, and an unprecedented prolonged depression in Silicon Valley.

  7. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “What we are witnessing is a systemic failure, not the beginnings of a revolution.”

    What we tested: The generative AI boom is a systemic failure, not the start of a revolution.

  8. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “which means that CoreWeave's continued ability to pay its bills is both contingent upon and absorbed by its revenue from OpenAI.”

    What we tested: CoreWeave's ability to keep paying its bills depends on, and is consumed by, its revenue from OpenAI.

  9. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “CoreWeave is set to lose $15 billion this year. Its projected revenue, according to The Information, is only $4.6 billion.”

    What we tested: CoreWeave is set to lose $15 billion in 2025 on projected revenue of only $4.6 billion.

  10. Assessment: ContradictedSaid

    “I can find no way to explain this other than that Microsoft has decided it doesn't want to be OpenAI's compute provider any further, and that any further expansion that OpenAI needs will be its responsibility to acquire.”

    What we tested: Zitron can find no explanation other than that Microsoft has decided it does not want to be OpenAI's compute provider any further and that any further expansion OpenAI needs will be OpenAI's responsibility to acquire.

    What happened: The same paragraph expressly states that OpenAI will increase Azure consumption while adding Stargate compute. This provides a contemporaneous alternative to the claim that Microsoft had abandoned further supply growth. (OpenAI and SoftBank, )

  11. Assessment: ContradictedSaid

    “I estimate OpenAI will lose as much as $14 billion in 2025.”

    What we tested: OpenAI will lose as much as $14 billion in 2025.

    What happened: The reported annual net loss exceeds the $14 billion upper-end estimate. The article attributes much of the gap to restructuring accounting and reports a substantially smaller adjusted figure; it describes Financial Times review of the records, rather than relying solely on Zitron's conclusion. (Ars Technica, )

  12. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “In any case, assuming the deal goes as planned, CoreWeave will still burn $15 billion in 2025.”

    What we tested: Even if the OpenAI deal goes as planned, CoreWeave will burn $15 billion in 2025.

  13. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “OpenAI's ability to pay CoreWeave is contingent on its ability to continue raising money, as it is set to lose over $14 billion in 2025.”

    What we tested: OpenAI's ability to pay CoreWeave depends on its ability to keep raising money, because it is set to lose over $14 billion in 2025.

  14. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “It does not anticipate being profitable until 2030, and does not have any explanation as to how they will become so other than “we will build Stargate.””

    What we tested: OpenAI does not expect profit until 2030 and has no explanation of how it will get there beyond building Stargate.

  15. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “For this situation to work even for the next year, these companies will have to raise tens of billions of dollars just to maintain the status quo.”

    What we tested: For the situation to work even for the next year, CoreWeave, OpenAI and SoftBank will have to raise tens of billions of dollars just to maintain the status quo.

  16. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

    “SoftBank is now both CoreWeave and OpenAI, and if SoftBank buckles, both CoreWeave and OpenAI are dead.”

    What we tested: If SoftBank buckles, both CoreWeave and OpenAI will collapse.

  17. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “It isn't comfortable to continually have to explain to people who are all saying "AI is the future" that the majority of what they are discussing is fictional”

    What we tested: Most of what people saying 'AI is the future' discuss is fictional.

  18. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “once that narrative fully takes hold, I fear a cascade of events that gores a hole in the side of the stock market and leads to tens of thousands of people losing their jobs.”

    What we tested: Once the narrative that only NVIDIA profits from generative AI takes hold, a cascade could badly hit the stock market and cost tens of thousands of jobs.

  19. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “I fear that we've built our economy on top of NVIDIA, which is dependent on the continued investment in GPUs from companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google, one of which has materially pulled back from data center expansion.”

    What we tested: Zitron fears that we have built our economy on top of NVIDIA, which depends on continued GPU investment from companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google, one of which has materially pulled back from data center expansion.

  20. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Be optimistic if you'd like, but engage with the truth when you do so.”

    What we tested: AI optimists should engage with the facts.

  21. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “To choose to believe that this will "all just work out" at this point is willful ignorance and actively refusing to engage with reality.”

    What we tested: At this point, choosing to believe that the AI industry's situation will all just work out is willful ignorance and an active refusal to engage with reality.

Held from this post (26)

These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.