Rot Economics - An Interview With MIT's Daron Acemoglu
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 5 can’t be checked. 4 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“It's not so much that we couldn't live in a virtual world or that digital money wouldn't be useful, but it's more that the actual output from the companies is not translating into meaningful products, and they're still monetized.”
What we tested: It feels like the actual output of tech companies' crypto, metaverse and generative AI efforts is not translating into meaningful products, even though it is still being monetized.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“A lot of what you've written about AI is the effects of if we automate these tasks, but it feels like they aren't even successfully automating anything.”
What we tested: It feels like generative AI companies aren't even successfully automating anything.
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
“Here's the thing, I get that that might be what they're pushing toward, but generative AI isn't even automation at this point.”
What we tested: As of mid-2024, generative AI does not actually work as automation.
What happened: Intercom reported actual customer deployments resolving queries directly through Fin. This supports the existence of bounded task automation, although the reported percentage is not an independently verified success rate. (Intercom, )
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
“Even though it doesn't really automate anything.”
What we tested: Generative AI does not really automate anything.
What happened: Intercom reported that deployed Fin systems resolved customer questions directly. The existence of successful bounded tasks contradicts 'anything', although the reported percentage requires qualification. (Intercom, )
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“But even then it's automation only in so much as you can trust it. And it feels like these core issues of hallucinations almost kill the concept of automation with generative.”
What we tested: It feels like the core issue of hallucinations almost kills the concept of automation with generative AI, since it is automation only insofar as you can trust it.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“And it feels that every report seems to be suggesting it isn't making people money.”
What we tested: It feels like every report seems to suggest that generative AI isn't making people money.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“Because right now the thing I've been on about with generative AI is on top of not being super useful, it's so unprofitable.”
What we tested: Generative AI is very unprofitable.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“This feels like this could be an economic panic unto itself.”
What we tested: It feels like it could be an economic panic in itself if tech companies don't have a new growth driver and they turn on generative AI.
Held from this post (4)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: Big tech companies' growth is slowing, and they have no new thing to pick up or acquire to drive growth.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: GPT-4o is not significantly different from what was available 18 months earlier.
- The two reviews read the claim differently