Sam Altman, Freed
We recorded 20 claims from this post. 5 were checked against evidence. 15 can’t be checked. 5 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (20)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“In the event that the “AI safety” story is true, this is likely a watershed moment in the tech industry.”
What we tested: If Altman was fired over AI safety concerns, the firing is likely a watershed moment for the tech industry.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
“Artificial intelligence has become one of the few reliable roads to capital in the current economy, with venture capitalists sinking more than a quarter of their startup dollars into AI-related companies in 2023.”
What we tested: AI has become one of the few reliable roads to capital, with more than a quarter of 2023 VC startup dollars going to AI companies.
What happened: Crunchbase directly reports a share above 25% for American startups. Its accompanying analysis reports increasing AI investment amid a broad funding contraction, supporting the relative-resilience reading. (Crunchbase News, )
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“OpenAI is allegedly on track to generate $1 billion a year in revenue in the next year, but if it’s not profitable at this scale, it’s likely that Altman’s mission has been to make the company more money rather than develop an AGI or, perish the thought, make a sustainable company that doesn’t have to continually live on venture-backed welfare.”
What we tested: If OpenAI, which is allegedly on track to generate $1 billion a year in revenue in the next year, is not profitable at that scale, it is likely that Altman's mission has been to make the company more money rather than develop an AGI or build a sustainable company that does not have to keep living on venture funding.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“OpenAI was already in a crisis before Altman was fired.”
What we tested: OpenAI was already in a crisis, with its business under competitive threat, before Altman was fired.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“While we will find out exactly what happens next in the following days or weeks, it’s likely that Altman wanted OpenAI to go in a different direction to the board — one that allowed it to continue to scale in an unsustainable way, or that would work against the non-profit’s mission.”
What we tested: Altman likely wanted OpenAI to go in a different direction from the board, one that allowed it to keep scaling unsustainably or that would work against the non-profit's mission.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“I believe that OpenAI is the beginning of a reckoning in Silicon Valley, where the venture community is forced to consider that the only thing that grows forever is cancer.”
What we tested: The OpenAI episode marks the beginning of a reckoning that forces Silicon Valley venture capital to face the limits of growth-at-all-costs.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“The aftermath of this situation will be messy, likely involving lawsuits, investor and employee revolts, and an internal fracturing within OpenAI.”
What we tested: The aftermath of Altman's firing will be messy and will likely include lawsuits, investor and employee revolts, and internal fracturing at OpenAI.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
“Altman will be fine. OpenAI, however, is an entirely different question.”
What we tested: Altman will be fine after his firing, but OpenAI's future is uncertain.
What happened: OpenAI officially confirmed Altman's return to the same chief executive role. This resolves the career setback under the stated ordinary reading. (OpenAI, )
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“With AI development an incredibly costly business, OpenAI can’t afford a tightening of the capital floodgates.”
What we tested: Because AI development is an incredibly costly business, OpenAI cannot afford a tightening of its access to capital.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“On the balance of probabilities, the odds of a major employee exodus seems high, if not inevitable.”
What we tested: A major employee exodus from OpenAI is highly likely, perhaps inevitable.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
“Shear doesn’t have much of an AI background, and has never faced the regulatory and legal challenges that threaten OpenAI and the wider AI sector.”
What we tested: OpenAI's new CEO Emmett Shear has little AI background and no experience with the regulatory and legal challenges facing OpenAI and the AI sector.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“It isn’t unthinkable that Microsoft could cut its losses and walk away.”
What we tested: Microsoft could cut its losses on OpenAI and walk away.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“The latter scenario feels especially plausible.”
What we tested: It feels especially plausible that Microsoft, now that Altman and Brockman lead its advanced AI division, will treat OpenAI as a competitor rather than a partner.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“In this scenario, it would have acquired everything besides the IP — which, presumably, it could buy at a later date, with its opponent in the negotiations both vastly-diminished and desperate.”
What we tested: If a mass walk-out of OpenAI staff to Microsoft occurs, Microsoft would have acquired everything besides OpenAI's IP, which it presumably could buy later from a vastly diminished and desperate OpenAI.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“Shear’s tenure could be just as short-lived as Murati’s.”
What we tested: Emmett Shear's tenure as OpenAI CEO could be as short-lived as Mira Murati's.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“In the end, OpenAI may end up being the most important company in Silicon Valley history, not just for the technology it builds, but for the controversies it’s going to create — and, evidently, has already spawned.”
What we tested: OpenAI may become the most important company in Silicon Valley history, for its technology and for the controversies it creates.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“While AI making goofy factual errors can be good for a laugh, but when poorly-tested (or error-prone) artificial intelligence enters critical infrastructure like healthcare, the results could be deadly.”
What we tested: Poorly tested or error-prone AI deployed in critical infrastructure such as healthcare could have deadly results.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“Even though fears about an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may be hyperbolic (or, rather, somewhat premature), there is a real problem in rushing artificial intelligence into the functionality of the world as the technology currently stands.”
What we tested: Although fears about AGI may be hyperbolic or somewhat premature, there is a real problem in rushing AI into the functioning of the world as the technology currently stands.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“People shouldn’t be afraid of an AGI — they should fear what happens when greedy executives look to automate away as much as possible.”
What we tested: People should fear greedy executives automating as much as possible, not AGI.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
“And this entire fiasco has shown that the tech industry is entirely beholden to the largest and richest men in technology, and no amount of theoretical altruism or positive motives can outdo those who control the money and the cloud infrastructure of the tech industry.”
What we tested: The OpenAI fiasco has shown that the tech industry is entirely beholden to the largest and richest men in technology, and that no amount of theoretical altruism or positive motives can outdo those who control the industry's money and cloud infrastructure.
Held from this post (5)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI is the only current company Zitron would expect to grow to the scale of Google or Meta.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: If OpenAI staff walk out en masse, Microsoft gets OpenAI's talent and leadership without the cost and scrutiny of a full acquisition.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI's non-profit board has been shown to be entirely beholden to financial interests, which is deeply concerning as competition from Anthropic grows.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: ChatGPT is estimated to cost hundreds of thousands of dollars a day to run, and the massive push to grow both the complexity and scale of the operation is deeply unsustainable.