Where Are All The Data Centers?
We recorded 15 claims from this post. 15 can’t be checked. 3 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (15)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These are intentionally attempts to obfuscate the actual progress of the data center buildout”
Our reading: Calling partly built data centers like Project Rainier and Stargate Abilene 'operational' is a deliberate attempt to hide how far the buildout has actually progressed.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I have serious doubts that Microsoft stood up a 350MW data center in less than a year, given everything else I’m about to explain.”
Our reading: It is unlikely that Microsoft built Fairwater Atlanta to 350MW of capacity in under a year.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“In reality, data center companies actively deceive the media and customers about the actual status of projects, most likely because it’s really, really difficult to build a data center.”
Our reading: Data center companies actively deceive the media and customers about project status, most likely because data centers are very hard to build.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Based on what I’ve found, I’d be surprised if more than 3GW of actual capacity was turned on in the last two years, which means that NVIDIA has sold anywhere from double to triple the amount of GPUs that the world can hold.”
Our reading: It is unlikely that more than 3GW of capacity was turned on worldwide in the past two years, which would mean NVIDIA sold two to three times as many GPUs as can be housed.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Let’s go back to Anthropic mopping up Musk’s fallow data center capacity, which stinks of desperation for both companies.”
Our reading: Anthropic taking up Musk's fallow data center capacity stinks of desperation for both companies.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“There’s supposedly incredible, unstoppable demand for AI compute, and Microsoft is apparently sitting on gigawatts’ worth, but somehow those gigawatts don’t seem to be translating into gigabillions, likely because they don’t fucking exist.”
Our reading: Microsoft's claimed gigawatts of new capacity are not producing matching revenue, most likely because that capacity does not exist.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Many took this to mean “Google is doubling its capacity every six months,” but I think it’s far more likely that Google is taking on capacity requests from Anthropic that are making said capacity demands necessary.”
Our reading: Google's stated need to double capacity every six months more likely reflects Anthropic's capacity requests than actual doubling of capacity.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Sidenote: This also really makes me doubt that Microsoft has been bringing a gigawatt of GPU capacity for two quarters straight.”
Our reading: Microsoft's depreciation figures make it doubtful that it added a gigawatt of GPU capacity in each of the last two quarters.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Actually, it’s probably important to state that I don’t think the majority of these projects are doing anything untoward I just don’t think any of them realized how difficult it is to build a data center, and unlike basically any other problem the tech industry has ever faced, simply throwing as much money as possible at it doesn’t really change the limits of physical construction.”
Our reading: Zitron does not think the majority of these data center projects are doing anything untoward; he thinks none of the builders realized how difficult it is to build a data center, and throwing as much money as possible at it does not really change the limits of physical construction.
No horizon
Qualifier: I don't think / I just don't think
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“This is setting up a horrifying situation where Oracle desperately needs OpenAI to pay it for capacity that doesn’t exist, and if it ever gets built, it’s likely to be years after OpenAI has run out of money”
Our reading: If Oracle's capacity for OpenAI ever gets built, it will likely be years after OpenAI has run out of money.
No horizon
Only if: if it ever gets built
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Nobody has built a 1GW data center, so I severely doubt Mr. Dogshit will be able to do anything other than create another scandal and lose a bunch of people’s money.”
Our reading: Kevin O'Leary's planned 9GW Utah data center will very likely not be built; it will more likely end in scandal and lost investor money.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In other words, any time you hear about a “new data center project,” add a year or two to whatever projection they give. If it’s 2027, assume 2029, or that it never gets built.”
Our reading: Readers should add one to two years to any announced data center completion date, or assume the project will never be built.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Something doesn’t line up, and it’s exactly the kind of misalignment that happens in a bubble — when infrastructural reality disconnects from the financials.”
Our reading: Something doesn't line up between AI infrastructure and the financials, and it is exactly the kind of misalignment that happens in a bubble, when infrastructural reality disconnects from the financials.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It feels like Jensen Huang might have run the largest preorder campaign of all time.”
Our reading: It feels like Jensen Huang might have run the largest preorder campaign of all time.
No horizon
Qualifier: it feels like
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If data centers are not getting built in anything approaching a reasonable timeline, that makes the future of these companies only as viable as the construction projects themselves.”
Our reading: If data centers are not built on a reasonable timeline, the futures of companies like NVIDIA's suppliers, AMD, Microsoft, Google, Oracle and Amazon are only as viable as those construction projects.
No horizon
Only if: if data centers are not built on a reasonable timeline
Held from this post (3)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: The vast majority of Microsoft's publicly announced or documented data center capacity does not appear to be getting finished, which he says is probably why Microsoft did not answer his questions.