Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Changes, page 35 of 52

Every substantive change to the register, newest first. Speaker events record what the people covered said or changed. Site events record what this site published, corrected, flagged, or withdrew. The two never share a label.

Substantive changes (10273)

Page 35 of 52: changes 6801 to 7000 of 10273, newest first. Dates are when the change was recorded.

  1. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-bf4799

    The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.

  2. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-b60f63

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  3. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    People who care about device security or data privacy should not use OpenClaw.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-afccd2-a1.

  4. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenClaw is basically a cascade of LLMs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-5b24d2-a1.

  5. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-2199be

    The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.

  6. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Unlike sandboxed iPhone apps, OpenClaw left unfettered is positioned to cause serious harm.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-208362-a1.

  7. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-fc7a90

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  8. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-ea67a1

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.

  9. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-d3e7ef

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  10. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLMs will not be the approach that leads the way to AGI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-b64a45-a1.

  11. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLMs do markedly better on coding benchmarks than in real-world coding practice.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-b64a45-2-a2.

  12. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-aeede7

    the horizon on 2026-10-28 is not_due, not open_horizon; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  13. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-9c03a7

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  14. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-8dacbd

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  15. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI cannot be made better if you drown out the critics and keep pouring good money after bad.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-749cae-a1.

  16. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Almost no one was satisfied with GPT-5, and some customers wanted the old models back.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-71964f-a2.

  17. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Hype and bragging alone cannot produce AGI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-46892d-a1.

  18. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-3908e7

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  19. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    As the limits of scaling become recognized, scientists will pursue new approaches, one of which may produce trustworthy AI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-372737-a1.

  20. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-13ac30

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  21. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Two years ago many people treated Altman like an oracle, and now, in the eyes of many, he looks more like a snake oil salesman.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-0ea2ca-a2.

  22. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-5 is starting to look like Altman's decisive defeat.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-02dd34-a1.

  23. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-slow-motion-train-wreck-ca18c7

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  24. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The magazine cover of OpenAI's leaders from last September may soon become as iconic as the most famous magazine covers of our time.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-slow-motion-train-wreck-b154d8-a1.

  25. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Investors should not put more money into OpenAI at higher valuations and should instead scrutinize what is going on at the company.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-slow-motion-train-wreck-500831-a1.

  26. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI may fail or even be dismissed.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-c0eb62-a1.

  27. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The revealed facts suggest OpenAI never really intended to follow its charter.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-bcbe0c-a1.

  28. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus applies the proverb 'leopards rarely change their spots' to OpenAI, expressing distrust of its character.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-844bea-a1.

  29. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-own-goal-644a39

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  30. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-own-goal-4cdfa1

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  31. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI knew it was misleading people into believing it meant open-sourced AI and failed to take an opportunity, at a May 2016 meeting, to correct that belief.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-463360-a2.

  32. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Almost nothing is known about the precise internal mechanisms of GPT-4 or what it has been trained on.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-3c5406-a1.

  33. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-own-goal-28e78a

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  34. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI should not turn a blind eye to covert racism, apparent copyright infringement, and violent or degrading outputs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-1329d2-a1.

  35. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-own-goal-11234a

    The anthropic review does not accept e2 as contradicts.

  36. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Tyler Cowen's claim that OpenAI's o3 is AGI was refuted within a day of its release.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-o3-and-tyler-cowens-misguided-f34825-a1.

  37. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-o3-and-tyler-cowens-misguided-31bb96

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  38. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-o3-and-tyler-cowens-misguided-0589ab

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  39. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    While publicly asking the Senate to regulate it, OpenAI worked behind the scenes to water down regulations.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-cfd3b2-a2.

  40. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    In his May 2023 Senate testimony, Sam Altman left out his indirect OpenAI stake through Y Combinator and his ownership of the OpenAI venture fund.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-c81e88-a1.

  41. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-97fd17

    The openai review reads the claim differently.

  42. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Given her role as CTO, it seems all but inconceivable to Marcus that Mira Murati had no idea what specific data Sora was trained on.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-8a8620-a1.

  43. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Phrases in OpenAI's official filings such as 'Charitable' and 'For the public benefit' don't seem to have meant much at all.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-89ae41-a1.

  44. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-519ac2

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  45. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-d52790

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  46. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-9ed742

    The openai review does not accept e3 as contradicts.

  47. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The US government might succeed in knee-capping Anthropic, which would protect Josh Kushner's investment in OpenAI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-7f4134-a1.

  48. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-786cce

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  49. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI cannot keep multiplying its losses by around 8x a year for very long.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-751563-a1.

  50. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-2f7af6

    The openai review doubts the attribution.

  51. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-2deb22

    The anthropic review does not accept e3 as supports.

  52. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Copyright battles may cut massively into OpenAI's profits and may be unavoidable.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-f8bbb1-a1.

  53. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-ec185a

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  54. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-e59077

    e7 is dated 2024-01, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2024-01-27); it can only be context

  55. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI's licensing costs for copyrighted material may quickly mount.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-e15e51-a1.

  56. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-de64ed

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: OpenAI's answer explicitly includes licensed information among its training sources and acknowledges its AP partnership and further negotiations, contradicting the claimed omission of licensing..

  57. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Internal tensions at OpenAI are likely to persist in 2024.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-d46504-a1.

  58. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The perception of OpenAI's unlimited potential could soon change.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-c6beae-a1.

  59. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If LLMs plateau in the near term, enthusiasm may dissipate and investors may temper their investments.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-c58975-a1.

  60. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus guesses that OpenAI, backed by and deeply tied to Microsoft, will survive, but that the bloom will fade from the rose.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-afbae6-a1.

  61. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Public Citizen's call could strain OpenAI and, if California investigates, lead to uncomfortable revelations.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-a454eb-a1.

  62. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Many generative AI companies are likely to face intense legal and public pressure over copyright in 2024.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-a3cd7f-a1.

  63. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-9af2fc

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  64. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI will likely face a rapid flurry of lawsuits in 2024.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-9472d9-a1.

  65. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Most high-quality data sources for LLM training have likely already been tapped.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-911b4d-a1.

  66. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    EU and other regulation may force OpenAI to confront unreliability, privacy, misinformation, and cybercrime problems.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-8a5fee-a1.

  67. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI's request for a copyright exemption is likely in violation of common law and international IP conventions like Berne.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-8710f3-a1.

  68. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    2024 looks likely to be a much more challenging year for OpenAI and Sam Altman.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-7f7229-a1.

  69. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    As of January 2024, OpenAI has neither profits nor a competitive moat.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-535fab-a1.

  70. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-3afee6

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  71. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    It is unclear that ChatGPT adoption will be enough to justify OpenAI's very high valuation.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-1942cd-a1.

  72. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI may spend a huge part of its energy in 2024 defending lawsuits.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-166cb4-a1.

  73. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLM technology may reach a plateau, perhaps in 2024 or 2025.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-0ae95f-a1.

  74. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Valuations of OpenAI and some peers may drop sharply.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-090ea2-a1.

  75. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-future-foretold-dbfb57

    The final-text check failed: conditions_shown, citations_correct.

  76. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Generative AI has not always worked well enough to justify its costs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-future-foretold-d8e08f-a1.

  77. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-future-foretold-9afaee

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  78. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-future-foretold-99155a

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  79. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-future-foretold-8c2779

    The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: Bloomberg linked the discrepancy with earlier estimates to different treatment of cloud-provider sales; that revision does not establish a revenue stall [e2]..

  80. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Schoolchildren using ChatGPT to do their homework are not enough to cover OpenAI's immense costs and cash burn.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-future-foretold-699479-a1.

  81. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-fc03cb

    The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: On 2026-04-07, The Register reported Anthropic's statement that Mythos Preview could identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system and browser when directed to (e3)..

  82. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The AI industry might slow down only if companies are clearly held liable for the harms they cause.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-f49a5f-a1.

  83. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI development should slow down or pause until security and AI safety are under control.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-e84e11-a1.

  84. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-e05b65

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  85. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI, and for that matter Anthropic, love playing the doom card.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-d3abd4-a1.

  86. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If AI companies are not held liable for harms, we are in for a very rough ride.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-b9d697-a1.

  87. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI's production classifiers are likely to be permeable, just like all guardrails anybody has built to date.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-6707a5-a1.

  88. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-53668a

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.

  89. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Spending trillions on data centers, which risk blowing up the economy, is only adding fuel to the fire.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-4ff47b-a1.

  90. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The incident probably has implications for open-weight models, but they are complex and not yet clear.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-1c558a-a1.

  91. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-10465f

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  92. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI's zero-day hack of HuggingFace should be treated as a wake-up call.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-0d48b2-a1.

  93. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    It is still disconcerting that OpenAI's systems were able to hack into HuggingFace.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-01be38-a1.

  94. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-ae5158

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  95. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-aa698d

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  96. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-5de705

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  97. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-4d827e

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  98. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-4a8019

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: The report documents timeouts and only 37 returned answers across 100 ARC-AGI-1 tasks for o3-high..

  99. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-3bd254

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  100. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus says he is getting Theranos vibes from OpenAI's handling of the o3 results.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-dirty-december-o3-demo-doesnt-233158-a1.

  101. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI's code red may stem in part from a recent exodus of users.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-code-red-feccc6-a1.

  102. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-code-red-e0029e

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  103. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If most or all investors opt out, OpenAI's valuation could drop, perhaps precipitously, like WeWork's.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-code-red-c53012-a1.

  104. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If OpenAI drops, Nvidia might well drop too.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-code-red-c48fd2-a1.

  105. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-code-red-c3bc65

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  106. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI's unraveling has begun.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-code-red-a687a9-a1.

  107. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If OpenAI drops, other companies with many future OpenAI orders on their books might also drop.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-code-red-a52e2a-a1.

  108. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-code-red-97a216

    e1 measures something else (metric net income (loss), implied from Microsoft's equity-method share is not net income (loss)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e2 measures something else (metric net income (loss), projected is not net income (loss)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs; e3 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e4 measures something else (metric net loss excluding one-time charges is not net income (loss)); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs

  109. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-code-red-6ad305

    e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope

  110. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    In the worst case, if OpenAI falls, the government might seriously consider a taxpayer-funded bailout.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-code-red-3613cb-a1.

  111. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-code-red-339082

    e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope

  112. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-code-red-24da7e

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: OpenAI did not fall..

  113. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI is burning billions of dollars per month.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-code-red-111356-a2.

  114. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra's math success is possible because math allows external tools for verification and synthetic data generation.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-fc16b6-a2.

  115. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI's Astra announcement was marketing rather than science and disclosed no information about how the results were achieved.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-efd1af-a1.

  116. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra is unlikely to lead directly to a cancer cure or enormous advances in materials, energy, or drug discovery.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-e93f85-a1.

  117. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra is unlikely to score even 5 out of 10 on the 2024 Marcus–Brundage bet.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-d10cdf-a1.

  118. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra is very impressive, but Marcus sees no reason whatsoever to think Astra is AGI, let alone ASI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-cfd4e8-a1.

  119. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The 'AGI-is-near' community keeps committing the same logical fallacy, the fallacy of composition, over and over.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-9ae3b7-a1.

  120. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra is very unlikely to solve all the reliability problems of current models.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-94f6c4-a1.

  121. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-90ceaa

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  122. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-8bc3e0

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  123. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra does not represent the Singularity.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-7dd7e1-a1.

  124. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra's apparent strength in some math does not imply it will avoid hallucinations or solve GenAI reliability problems.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-78885a-a1.

  125. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Models shine at math and coding because those domains allow verification and cheap correct synthetic data, which is not true of domains in general.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-763b2e-a1.

  126. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra is good at some math, but it is very doubtful that math has been solved.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-6df0ae-a1.

  127. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra, the new model OpenAI is testing internally, is amazing.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-6a6c5c-a1.

  128. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra's results contain no new theory or techniques and are nowhere near the significance of history's major mathematical developments.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-6905ff-a1.

  129. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra will probably not be able to write usable scripts for Sabine Hossenfelder's YouTube series.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-54cac3-a1.

  130. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra's results do not mean we have entered the era of automated scientific discovery.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-4bbb80-a1.

  131. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    There is an important, principled reason to think that AI success on math is a special case that will not generalize as much as people might hope.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-3e407d-a1.

  132. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Astra will probably not be able to reliably extract numbers from arbitrary PDFs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-3cc78d-a1.

  133. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    People hoping Astra will be magic are likely to be disappointed.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-amazing-but-vastly-oversold-026f12-a1.

  134. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI recently invested in a $60M fundraise for a webcam company and is planning a hardware joint venture with it.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-on-a-path-to-becoming-the-fdfbc0-a1.

  135. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Sam Altman wants to know everything about people and make money from it.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-on-a-path-to-becoming-the-f59e29-a1.

  136. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Sam Altman might succeed in knowing and monetizing everything about people.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-on-a-path-to-becoming-the-f0b070-a1.

  137. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openai-on-a-path-to-becoming-the-cdfc48

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  138. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Sam Altman has acknowledged that he wants to train AI on everyone's personal documents, such as Word files and email.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-on-a-path-to-becoming-the-c9ddff-a1.

  139. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Something terrifying has just snapped into place, as shown by the developments listed after this line.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-on-a-path-to-becoming-the-359df1-a1.

  140. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI recently put Paul Nakasone, formerly of the NSA, on its board.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-on-a-path-to-becoming-the-097a75-a1.

  141. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Microsoft and OpenAI's only way to make generative AI profitable is around-the-clock surveillance of users.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance-ee342e-a1.

  142. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    ChatGPT's new Apple Messages plugin certainly raises privacy concerns.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance-c0fdfa-a1.

  143. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    It is plausible that OpenAI will turn into a surveillance company.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance-9d9a76-a1.

  144. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance-94a209

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  145. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance-4b588f

    The final-text check failed: excerpt_matches, conditions_shown, rationale_supported_by_evidence.

  146. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openai-is-becoming-a-surveillance-43029f

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  147. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus expects the two new members of OpenAI's reconstituted board to be neutral.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-is-back-in-business-a494ed-a1.

  148. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus is disappointed that OpenAI's new board has no women and hopes the board will expand in due course.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-is-back-in-business-5e2aaa-a1.

  149. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The public may never fully learn what happened in the November 2023 OpenAI board crisis.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-is-back-in-business-1d3bd5-a1.

  150. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The most important thing for humanity is that OpenAI sticks to its original mission.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-is-back-in-business-1a26a2-a1.

  151. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Altman was obviously fibbing when he said 'We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it'.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-f86d83-a1.

  152. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-4.5 appears to be the system intended as GPT-5, renamed to lower expectations.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-cf0147-a1.

  153. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-a9e42a

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e2 explanation: "The reviewers identified practical writing strengths, cautioning against treating coding results as the whole product.".

  154. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Potential investors should question Altman's technical management and OpenAI's ability to deliver.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-9d0172-a1.

  155. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-4.5 was OpenAI's best attempt after DeepSeek to show it still leads, and it failed.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-8d14d0-a1.

  156. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI is probably still losing money on every prompt.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-8973e6-a1.

  157. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-4.5 is the best Altman has got, and Altman was bluffing the whole time.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-80805d-a1.

  158. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-735095

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  159. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI still has not released GPT-5 after two years of hype.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-68a900-a1.

  160. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-663d82

    The openai review does not accept e4 as contradicts.

  161. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Altman may lack the intellectual vision to take OpenAI to the next level.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-10576f-a1.

  162. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Sam Altman's credibility has declined.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-in-deep-trouble-040164-a1.

  163. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI may well have used content from YouTube, the New York Times, and many artists and writers without permission, much as DeepSeek allegedly did to OpenAI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-cries-foul-ccfa02-a1.

  164. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openai-cries-foul-82b9ec

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  165. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI being copied by DeepSeek is karmic payback for its own use of others' IP.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-cries-foul-5dcbf6-a1.

  166. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    It is plausible that DeepSeek broke OpenAI's Terms of Service by distilling OpenAI's models without permission.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openai-cries-foul-1fdf3c-a1.

  167. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The media and everyone else should not confuse open-weight models with open-source models.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-open-source-is-not-the-same-as-open-f838f9-a1.

  168. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    How much of what a model does is regurgitation versus how much extends beyond its training data is arguably the central question in AI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-open-source-is-not-the-same-as-open-869077-a1.

  169. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Like pigeons being 'just rats with better PR', open-weight is open-source with all the good press but far fewer advantages.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-open-source-is-not-the-same-as-open-27bb2b-a1.

  170. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-open-source-is-not-the-same-as-open-2451f8

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  171. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    EU leaders should not gut (drastically weaken) the EU AI Act, because it is needed now more than ever.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-open-letter-to-all-eu-leaders-e4c6eb-a1.

  172. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The EU AI Act is needed now more than ever, given the turmoil at OpenAI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-open-letter-to-all-eu-leaders-e4c6eb-2-a1.

  173. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The November 2023 events at OpenAI are likely to lead to considerable, unpredictable instability.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-open-letter-to-all-eu-leaders-bb3b9b-a1.

  174. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI models need more innate structure than pure multilayer perceptrons, even before learning.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-open-letter-responding-to-yann-lecun-c7efc3-a1.

  175. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-open-letter-responding-to-yann-lecun-b3f296

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: e2 excerpt "outperforms all baselines" (truncated from "outperforms all baselines on data efficiency").

  176. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-open-letter-responding-to-yann-lecun-81296b

    e1 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-06-04); it can only be context

  177. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus and LeCun are among the minority of people who have come to fully understand just how limited LLMs are and what needs to be done next.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-open-letter-responding-to-yann-lecun-09dedf-a1.

  178. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-oops-how-google-bombed-while-doing-e303fd

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  179. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Observers should be asking what competitive moat exists in chatbot search when Google and Microsoft are about to offer basically the same thing.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-oops-how-google-bombed-while-doing-d6992b-a1.

  180. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The hallucination problem in neural networks has persisted since 2001, so assuming it will soon go away ignores 20 years of history.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-oops-how-google-bombed-while-doing-d17e5e-a2.