“I seriously doubt it. We have not one, but many, serious, unsolved problems at the core of generative AI”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Marcus seriously doubts the projections of near-term AGI, including Dario Amodei's projection that we will have AGI in 2-3 years from August 2023.
Assessment: Can’t be checked Deadline passed on 2026-10-29 Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud?, section on the belief that generative AI is tantamount to AGI, replying to projections by Dario Amodei and Demis Hassabis.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment gm-doubt-agi-in-2-3-years-2023-a3
We recorded 23 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2023-08-13. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- “in 2-3 years (Amodei's projection, reported in a post dated 2023-08-13)”
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- Deadline passed (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- 'Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, recently projected that we will have AGI in 2-3 years'
- 'Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind has also made projections of near-term AGI'
- I seriously doubt it
- the stated reason: 'many, serious, unsolved problems at the core of generative AI'
Our interpretation
- 'It' refers to the projections of near-term AGI in the sentences before. We read 'I seriously doubt' as a strong doubt, not a definite commitment. The policy records such a statement but does not score it.
- The horizon is the longer end of Amodei's projection: three years from August 2023.
Counts as supported if: Not scored. The statement expresses doubt, not a definite commitment.
Counts as contradicted if: Not scored. The statement expresses doubt, not a definite commitment.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Can’t be checked
The statement is a recommendation, a value judgment, or too open to test. It is recorded, not scored.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.5 (the current policy is 2026-10-28.7; this assessment has not been rechecked under it)
Rationale
In August 2023, replying to Dario Amodei's projection of AGI in 2-3 years and to similar projections by Demis Hassabis, Marcus wrote 'I seriously doubt it', citing many serious unsolved problems in generative AI. A strong doubt is recorded and not scored.
Limitations
- This record does not assess whether AGI arrived by August 2026. The post describes AGI broadly, as general purpose AI 'as smart and resourceful as humans if not more so', but gives no test for it.
Evidence (0 items)
No evidence item settled this claim by the cutoff.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud?
I seriously doubt it. We have not one, but many, serious, unsolved problems at the core of generative AI
- Published
- 2023-08-13
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment gm-doubt-agi-in-2-3-years-2023-a3: Current. Outcome: Can’t be checked. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Site correctionBy this site
A new assessment with the same outcome replaced the previous one.
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment gm-doubt-agi-in-2-3-years-2023-a2, which was not published.