“Few companies (and even fewer consumers) will adopt o3 at wide scale because of concerns about price and robustness relative to that price.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Filed under 'Medium confidence': by the end of 2025, few companies (and even fewer consumers) will adopt OpenAI's o3 at wide scale, because of concerns about price and robustness relative to that price.
Assessment: Can’t be checked Deadline passed on 2026-10-29 Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, 25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI, second item under the heading 'Medium confidence', in '25 Predictions for 2025'.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment gm-o3-limited-adoption-2025-a2
We recorded 37 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2025-01-01. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- “the end of this year (post dated 2025-01-01: 'my own predictions for where we will be at the end of this year')”
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- Deadline passed (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- Few companies (and even fewer consumers) will adopt o3 at wide scale
- because of concerns about price and robustness relative to that price
- listed under the heading 'Medium confidence', separate from the post's 'High confidence' list
- 'my own predictions for where we will be at the end of this year', post dated 2025-01-01
Our interpretation
- We read the heading 'Medium confidence' as the author's own middling confidence in this prediction. The policy records such a prediction but does not score it.
- 'Few', 'wide scale', and the stated cause have no measure.
Counts as supported if: Not scored. The author filed the prediction under medium confidence.
Counts as contradicted if: Not scored. The author filed the prediction under medium confidence.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Can’t be checked
The statement is a recommendation, a value judgment, or too open to test. It is recorded, not scored.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.5 (the current policy is 2026-10-28.7; this assessment has not been rechecked under it)
Rationale
On January 1, 2025, Marcus predicted that few companies, and even fewer consumers, would adopt OpenAI's o3 at wide scale because of concerns about its price and robustness. He listed it under the heading 'Medium confidence'. A prediction its author files under medium confidence is recorded and not scored.
Limitations
- This record does not show how widely o3 was adopted in 2025. No evidence on its adoption is part of this record.
Evidence (0 items)
No evidence item settled this claim by the cutoff.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, 25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI
Few companies (and even fewer consumers) will adopt o3 at wide scale because of concerns about price and robustness relative to that price.
- Published
- 2025-01-01
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment gm-o3-limited-adoption-2025-a2: Current. Outcome: Can’t be checked. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Site correctionBy this site
A new assessment with the same outcome replaced the previous one.
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment gm-o3-limited-adoption-2025-a1, which was not published.