“Learn and master the basics of almost any new video game within a few minutes or hours, and solve original puzzles in the alternate world of that video game.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Marcus seriously doubts that, by the end of 2025, AI will be able to learn and master the basics of almost any new video game within a few minutes or hours and solve original puzzles in the alternate world of that video game.
Assessment: Can’t be checked Deadline passed on 2026-10-29 Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, Superhuman AGI is not nigh, second item in the list 'things that ordinary people do that I seriously doubt AI will be able to do by the end of 2025'.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment gm-video-game-mastery-by-end-2025-a3
We recorded 14 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2024-04-12. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- “by the end of 2025 (post published 2024-04-12)”
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- Deadline passed (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- 'things that ordinary people do that I seriously doubt AI will be able to do by the end of 2025'
- 'Learn and master the basics of almost any new video game within a few minutes or hours, and solve original puzzles in the alternate world of that video game'
- later in the same post: 'I could be wrong on a few in the lists above. Some items might get checked off by the end of 2025, but all of them?'
Our interpretation
- We read 'I seriously doubt' as a strong doubt, not a definite commitment. The post's later caveat, that he 'could be wrong on a few' and some items 'might get checked off', confirms that reading for each single item. The firm part of the post, that not all items would be done, is a separate claim.
Counts as supported if: Not scored. The statement expresses doubt about this item, not a definite commitment.
Counts as contradicted if: Not scored. The statement expresses doubt about this item, not a definite commitment.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Can’t be checked
The statement is a recommendation, a value judgment, or too open to test. It is recorded, not scored.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.5 (the current policy is 2026-10-28.7; this assessment has not been rechecked under it)
Rationale
On April 12, 2024, Marcus listed this task among things he seriously doubted AI could do by the end of 2025. The same post says he could be wrong on a few items and that some might get checked off by then. A strong doubt about a single item, with that caveat, is recorded and not scored.
Limitations
- This record does not show what AI systems could do with new video games in 2025. No evidence on that question is part of this record.
Evidence (0 items)
No evidence item settled this claim by the cutoff.
What would settle it
Not scored. The firm list-level statement, that AI would not do all of the listed tasks by the end of 2025, could be recorded as a separate claim.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, Superhuman AGI is not nigh
Learn and master the basics of almost any new video game within a few minutes or hours, and solve original puzzles in the alternate world of that video game.
- Published
- 2024-04-12
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment gm-video-game-mastery-by-end-2025-a3: Current. Outcome: Can’t be checked. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Site correctionBy this site
A new assessment with the same outcome replaced the previous one.
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment gm-video-game-mastery-by-end-2025-a2, which was not published.