“My predictions, going back to 2022 that pure scaling of LLMs would eventually start to run out appear to have been confirmed in November and December, based on comments from many industry insiders.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
His predictions since 2022 that pure scaling of LLMs would eventually start to run out appear to have been confirmed in November and December 2024, based on comments from many industry insiders.
Assessment: Can’t be checked Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, 25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI, paragraph 6.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-012f05-a2
We recorded 38 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2025-01-01. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- appear to have been confirmed (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
- based on comments from many industry insiders (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- My predictions, going back to 2022
- pure scaling of LLMs would eventually start to run out
- appear to have been confirmed
- in November and December
- based on comments from many industry insiders
Our interpretation
- November and December refer to 2024 in this retrospective.
- The speaker offers tentative confirmation, rather than asserting that his prediction has definitively come true.
- Testing whether insiders reported slowing gains would test a narrower factual proposition. It would not settle the speaker's qualified assessment of confirmation.
- The plain-reading allowance for firm claims does not authorize removing this hedge.
This claim is not graded on evidence. The record checks that the words are quoted correctly and attributed to the right person, and that the claim is classified correctly.
Current assessment
Not graded on evidence
Outcome: Can’t be checked
The statement is a recommendation, a value judgment, or too open to test. It is recorded, not scored.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Marcus says his prediction appears confirmed. Scoring this as a definite claim that scaling had reached diminishing returns would remove his qualification. Scoring only whether insiders voiced concerns would substitute a narrower claim. Under the stated rule for hedged language, this statement should not receive a supported or contradicted verdict.
Limitations
- This decision does not assess whether scaling gains slowed or whether insiders reported slowing gains.
Evidence (0 items)
No outcome evidence: a claim of this kind is recorded and attributed, not scored.
What would settle it
A separate, unqualified statement with a checkable meaning could be assessed. It would not change the wording of this statement.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, 25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI
My predictions, going back to 2022 that pure scaling of LLMs would eventually start to run out appear to have been confirmed in November and December, based on comments from many industry insiders.
- Where
- paragraph 6
- Published
- 2025-01-01
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-012f05-a2: Current. Outcome: Can’t be checked. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-012f05-a2.
HeldBy this site
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
About assessment marcus-25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus-012f05-a1, which was not published.