“Many other Tech CEOs and others, including Marc Andreeseen (A16Z), Alexandr Wang (ScaleAI), have also used the phrase “hitting a wall” and the idea of diminishing returns in the last couple weeks.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
In the last couple of weeks before November 23, 2024, many other tech CEOs and others, including Marc Andreessen and Alexandr Wang, used the phrase "hitting a wall" and the idea of diminishing returns.
Assessment: Supported Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, Satya Nadella and the three stages of scientific truth, paragraph 17.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-satya-nadella-and-the-three-stages-1c0969-a1
We recorded 6 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2024-11-23. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- many other Tech CEOs and others (scope, stated by the speaker)
- in the last couple weeks (scope, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- Many other Tech CEOs and others
- including Marc Andreeseen (A16Z), Alexandr Wang (ScaleAI)
- used the phrase “hitting a wall” and the idea of diminishing returns
- in the last couple weeks
Our interpretation
- 'In the last couple weeks' before the 2024-11-23 post is read loosely as roughly the first three weeks of November 2024 (2024-11-02 to 2024-11-23).
- The claim is read as a statement about the group: across the named people and others, the 'wall' phrase and the diminishing-returns idea were both in use. It does not require that every named person said the exact words 'hitting a wall'.
- 'Many other tech CEOs and others' is satisfied by the two named people plus reporting that the wall idea was widely held in the industry in that window.
Counts as supported if: Dated reports from about 2–23 November 2024 show Wang and Andreessen publicly saying that scaling or capabilities were hitting a wall, ceiling, or diminishing returns, and that this view was widely shared among industry leaders.
Counts as contradicted if: Evidence that Wang and Andreessen did not express such views in that window, or that they explicitly rejected the wall or diminishing-returns idea at that time.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Supported
The dated evidence matches what the claim committed to, under the criteria frozen before grading.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
On Nov 20, 2024, three days before the post, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang said on stage that 'the wall has been the topic du jour for the past few weeks' and answered 'yes and no' to whether AI had hit a wall. The Verge's report of that summit said Google and others were seeing diminishing returns, and its subhead said everyone in AI seemed to agree models were hitting a scaling wall. A report dated Nov 6 quotes Marc Andreessen saying models were 'hitting the same ceiling on capabilities', which is the diminishing-returns idea. Together, the named people and others used the wall framing and the diminishing-returns idea in roughly the weeks before the post. One caveat: Andreessen's remarks fall about 17 days before the post, and he said 'ceiling', not 'wall'.
Limitations
- Andreessen did not use the exact phrase 'hitting a wall'; the claim is scored on the group reading.
- Andreessen's remarks fall at the loose edge of 'last couple weeks'.
- News reports are used rather than the original recordings.
Evidence (3 items)
Supports the claim: The Verge,
“The wall has been the topic du jour for the past few weeks,” Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang, whose company helps OpenAI, Meta, and others train their models, told the conference’s host, Eric Newcomer, during the morning’s first session. “Have we hit a wall? Yes and no.”
Why it matters here: Wang publicly used the 'wall' framing on Nov 20, 2024, three days before the post. He partly agreed that a wall had been hit, and the report links it to diminishing returns from training.
- Publisher
- The Verge
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Supports the claim: The Verge,
Google and others are starting to see diminishing returns from training their next models.
Why it matters here: Shows the diminishing-returns idea was in wide circulation across the industry in November 2024. The article's subhead says 'Everyone in AI seems to agree that new models are hitting a scaling wall.'
- Publisher
- The Verge
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Supports the claim: OfficeChai,
“They’re kind of hitting the same ceiling on capabilities. Now there’s lots of smart people in the industry working to break through those ceilings, but sitting here today, if you just looked at the data, if you just looked at the charts of performance over time, what you would say is there’s at least a local topping out of capabilities that’s happening,” Andreessen continued.
Why it matters here: Andreessen voiced the idea of diminishing returns, a ceiling and a topping out of capabilities, in podcast remarks reported Nov 6, 2024. He did not use the word 'wall'. The event date is the report's publication date; the remarks were made on or shortly before it.
- Where
- paragraph 3
- Publisher
- OfficeChai
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, Satya Nadella and the three stages of scientific truth
Many other Tech CEOs and others, including Marc Andreeseen (A16Z), Alexandr Wang (ScaleAI), have also used the phrase “hitting a wall” and the idea of diminishing returns in the last couple weeks.
- Where
- paragraph 17
- Published
- 2024-11-23
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-satya-nadella-and-the-three-stages-1c0969-a1: Current. Outcome: Supported. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-satya-nadella-and-the-three-stages-1c0969-a1.