“Eliezer Yudkowsky warned that AI was (inevitably!) going to kill us all. I am happy to report that so far it hasn’t.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
So far, AI has not killed humanity as Yudkowsky warned.
Assessment: Supported Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, TED, AI, and the test of time, paragraph 7.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-e3b482-a1
We recorded 11 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-29. The source may have been edited after 2024-04-15. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- so far (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- kill us all
- so far it hasn’t
Our interpretation
- Assess only Marcus’s observation that humanity had not been killed by AI by April 15, 2024.
- The existence of living humans on that date is sufficient to establish that human extinction had not occurred.
- This does not adjudicate the accuracy of his paraphrase of Yudkowsky or any prediction about later extinction.
- So far limits the observation in time; it is not a conditional forecast antecedent.
Counts as supported if: A reliable dated record establishes that at least one human was alive on April 15, 2024.
Counts as contradicted if: AI had caused the death of every human by that date.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Supported
The dated evidence matches what the claim committed to, under the criteria frozen before grading.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
The dated record of people completing the Boston Marathon establishes that humans were alive on April 15, 2024. That settles the narrow observation. Survival on that date does not contradict a prediction about extinction at an unspecified future time.
Limitations
- This assesses neither future AI risk nor Marcus’s characterization of Yudkowsky’s position.
Evidence (1 item)
Supports the claim: World Athletics,
finished third
Why it matters here: The governing body's report documents living humans competing in the Boston Marathon on April 15. Their existence logically establishes that AI had not killed all humanity by then.
- Publisher
- World Athletics
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, TED, AI, and the test of time
Eliezer Yudkowsky warned that AI was (inevitably!) going to kill us all. I am happy to report that so far it hasn’t.
- Where
- paragraph 7
- Published
- 2024-04-15
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-e3b482-a1: Current. Outcome: Supported. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-e3b482-a1.