“For years we have been hearing, endlessly, about how GPT-5 was going to land imminently, and those predictions turned out to be wrong so often that a year ago I wrote a post about it, called GPT-5…now arriving Gate 8, Gate 9, Gate 10, not to mention a couple of April Fool’s jokes.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Predictions over several years that GPT-5 would arrive imminently were repeatedly wrong.
Assessment: Supported Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5, paragraph 1.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-c599c4-a1
We recorded 15 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2025-07-27. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- For years
- GPT-5 was going to land imminently
- those predictions turned out to be wrong so often
Our interpretation
- The claim concerns publicly circulated release expectations, not necessarily promises by OpenAI.
- Repeatedly means multiple distinct episodes of premature release expectations across years. Reprints of one report do not count as separate episodes.
- The historical period ends on the post date. Its beginning is unspecified.
- The words 'endlessly' and 'so often' emphasize repetition rather than specify a measurable frequency.
Counts as supported if: Dated publications across multiple years predict a near-term GPT-5 release, and subsequent records establish that GPT-5 remained unreleased after those anticipated windows.
Counts as contradicted if: The cited expectations were fulfilled, concerned training rather than release, or do not establish multiple distinct episodes of premature release expectations.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Supported
The dated evidence matches what the claim committed to, under the criteria frozen before grading.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Contemporaneous reports anticipated an impending release in late 2023 and a summer 2024 launch. In June 2025, Altman was still describing GPT-5's release as forthcoming. This supports the ordinary reading that near-term release expectations repeatedly proved premature. It does not establish repeated broken promises by OpenAI or a numerical meaning for 'endlessly'.
Limitations
- Support depends on including qualified public speculation within 'predictions'.
- The examples establish repetition, not the full rhetorical frequency claimed.
Evidence (3 items)
Supports the claim: International Business Times UK,
While nothing is set in stone yet, major signs that OpenAI is set to release GPT-5 have started surfacing online.
Why it matters here: The article presents GPT-5 as a possible impending release and discusses another GPT version arriving in the coming days. This establishes near-term speculation, with explicit uncertainty, rather than an official promise.
- Publisher
- International Business Times UK
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Supports the claim: TechSpot,
Anonymous sources familiar with the matter told Business Insider that GPT-5 will launch by mid-2024, likely during summer.
Why it matters here: This records a second episode with an explicit release window. It is secondary reporting of anonymous sources, not an OpenAI commitment.
- Publisher
- TechSpot
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Supports the claim: The Decoder,
When Mayne asked about the timeframe for GPT-5, Altman responded, "Probably sometime this summer," but added, "I don't know exactly when."
Why it matters here: Release remained prospective in June 2025, after both earlier anticipated windows. This is reporting of an official podcast; a directly readable primary transcript was not obtained.
- Publisher
- The Decoder
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-5
For years we have been hearing, endlessly, about how GPT-5 was going to land imminently, and those predictions turned out to be wrong so often that a year ago I wrote a post about it, called GPT-5…now arriving Gate 8, Gate 9, Gate 10, not to mention a couple of April Fool’s jokes.
- Where
- paragraph 1
- Published
- 2025-07-27
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-c599c4-a1: Current. Outcome: Supported. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-62e-c599c4-a1.