“So, yeah, not including anything from Q2 2026, Anthropic and OpenAI represent 68% of the $110 billion of AI revenue that Exponential View is trying to get people excited about.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Anthropic and OpenAI revenue and compute spend account for about 68% of Exponential View's $110B trailing AI revenue figure, even excluding Q2 2026.
Assessment: Unresolved Evidence as of
Where and when Ed Zitron wrote it
Where's Your Ed At, The AI Industry Is Losing, paragraph 65.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-02b265-a2
We recorded 31 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2026-06-30. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- excluding Q2 2026 (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- not including anything from Q2 2026
- Anthropic and OpenAI
- 68% of the $110 billion
Our interpretation
- The claim concerns the two companies' contribution to Exponential View's revenue estimate, calculated using their revenue and compute spending.
- The context combines figures from 2025 and Q1 2026. The target period encompasses those periods, but inclusion in the numerator must also match Exponential View's reporting window.
- I read 68% as an approximate percentage rounded to the nearest whole percentage point.
- A valid comparison requires reconciling transactions with the report's treatment of double-counting.
Counts as supported if: Comparable financial records and Exponential View's methodology establish that the two companies contributed approximately 68% of its $110 billion total, excluding Q2 2026 contributions.
Counts as contradicted if: A sufficiently complete reconciliation of the same companies, periods, financial measures and transactions establishes a materially different share.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Unresolved
The record was checked, and the evidence available by the cutoff does not settle it.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Exponential View's June 25, 2026 report estimates $110 billion in revenue over the preceding 12 months, after removing double-counting [e1]. Its public methodology does not provide the company-level allocations needed to establish OpenAI's and Anthropic's combined contribution [e1]. It therefore establishes neither the claimed 68% share nor a materially different share [e1].
Limitations
- The packet lacks a complete, independently verified numerator matched to the denominator's reporting window.
- Company revenue and compute payments have not been reconciled with the report's removal of double-counting.
- Zitron's estimates cannot independently verify the claimed share.
Evidence (1 item)
Context only: Exponential View,
$110 billion in revenue
Why it matters here: The denominator removes double-counting. The methodology explains that customer revenue and the associated payment to a cloud provider are not simply added together; the public page does not establish the labs' combined share.
- Publisher
- Exponential View
- Kind of source
- Independent measurement
- Measures
- Generative AI ecosystem excluding China, Trailing twelve-month revenue with double-counting removed, USD billions, estimate, ? to 2026-06
- Describes events of
- Public from
What would settle it
Exponential View's company-level allocations reconciled with independent records of each company's revenue, inference spending and training spending. The calculation must match the report's reporting window, exclude Q2 2026 contributions and account for overlapping transactions.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Where's Your Ed At, The AI Industry Is Losing
So, yeah, not including anything from Q2 2026, Anthropic and OpenAI represent 68% of the $110 billion of AI revenue that Exponential View is trying to get people excited about.
- Where
- paragraph 65
- Published
- 2026-06-30
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-02b265-a2: Current. Outcome: Unresolved. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
HeldBy this site
The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The original OpenAI quarterly report could not be read..
About assessment wyea-the-ai-industry-is-losing-02b265-a1, which was not published.