“Even Anthropic and OpenAI seem a little lethargic, both burning billions of dollars while making, by my estimates, no more than $2 billion and $6.26 billion in 2025 so far, despite projections of $5 billion and $13 billion respectively.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Anthropic and OpenAI seem a little lethargic, both burning billions while making, by his estimates, no more than $2 billion and $6.26 billion respectively in 2025 so far, against full-year projections of $5 billion and $13 billion.
Assessment: Unresolved Evidence as of
Where and when Ed Zitron wrote it
Where's Your Ed At, The Case Against Generative AI, paragraph 178.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment wyea-the-case-against-generative-ai-c415cd-a1
We recorded 46 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2025-09-29. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- by his estimates (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
- seem (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- Anthropic and OpenAI
- both burning billions of dollars
- by my estimates
- no more than $2 billion and $6.26 billion
- in 2025 so far
- projections of $5 billion and $13 billion respectively
Our interpretation
- The revenue amounts map respectively to Anthropic and OpenAI.
- 2025 so far means January 1 through September 29, 2025, the publication date.
- The main metric scope records realized revenue. Cash burn and the existence of the stated full-year forecasts are separate components requiring their own measures.
- Burning billions means at least $2 billion of net cash consumption per company during the stated year-to-date period; it does not mean accounting net losses.
- The description seem a little lethargic is subjective commentary and is not separately graded.
- The basis is estimate because Zitron expressly labels the figures his estimates. The treatment of reseller revenue is not specified.
Counts as supported if: Comparable records establish revenue through September 29 of no more than $2 billion for Anthropic and $6.26 billion for OpenAI, cash burn of at least $2 billion each, and the stated contemporaneous full-year forecasts.
Counts as contradicted if: Comparable records establish that either company exceeded its revenue ceiling by September 29, that either cash-burn assertion is false, or that the stated forecast was materially misrepresented. A partial-period figure below a ceiling cannot establish the full-period ceiling.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Unresolved
The record was checked, and the evidence available by the cutoff does not settle it.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
OpenAI's reported first-half revenue does not settle its September ceiling. Anthropic's filing provides significant contrary context: quarterly figures total $2.545 billion through September 30. But that is a day beyond the stated cutoff, and the accounting basis is not reconciled to the estimate. The run-rate disclosure cannot replace realized revenue, and the combined cash-burn assertions remain unverified. The full compound claim is therefore unresolved.
Limitations
- Treating September 30 as equivalent to September 29 could change the result; that substitution is not made.
- The public schema provides one contract metric scope, so revenue is the principal scope and cash burn is separately specified in the criteria.
- Some OpenAI evidence is secondary reporting of inaccessible private disclosures.
Evidence (4 items)
Context only: PYMNTS,
$4.3 billion in revenue
Why it matters here: The first-half estimate is below Zitron's ceiling, but does not establish revenue through September 29. The underlying private disclosures were not accessible.
- Where
- Opening paragraph
- Publisher
- PYMNTS
- Kind of source
- News report
- Measures
- OpenAI, Realized revenue, USD billions, estimate, 2025-01-01 to 2025-06-30
- Describes events of
- Public from
Context only: Cyprus Mail,
$13 billion
Why it matters here: Provides nearby reporting of the stated OpenAI revenue target. These are full-year forecasts, not realized year-to-date revenue or cash burn.
- Where
- Paragraph 5
- Publisher
- Cyprus Mail
- Kind of source
- News report
- Measures
- OpenAI, Full-year revenue and cash-burn forecasts, USD billions, estimate, 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31
- Describes events of
- Public from
Context only: Anthropic, reproduced by GIC,
run-rate revenue
Why it matters here: The company labels this figure a run rate. It cannot establish either $5 billion of full-year realized revenue or the claimed year-to-date ceiling.
- Publisher
- Anthropic, reproduced by GIC
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- Measures
- Anthropic, Revenue run rate, USD billions per year, company reported, 2025-08-01 to 2025-08-31
- Describes events of
- Public from
Context only: Anthropic / SEC,
October 26, 2026.
Why it matters here: The quarterly table yields $2.545 billion of revenue through September 30, above the Anthropic ceiling. This is material contrary context, but its cutoff is one day later and its GAAP basis has not been reconciled to Zitron's estimate.
- Publisher
- Anthropic / SEC
- Kind of source
- Regulatory filing, unaudited
- Measures
- Anthropic, Realized revenue, USD billions, gaap, 2025-01-01 to 2025-09-30
- Arithmetic
- (376 + 787 + 1382) / 1000 = 2.545 billion USD (inputs: Q1 2025 revenue: $376 million; Q2 2025 revenue: $787 million; Q3 2025 revenue: $1,382 million; Exact sum of the table's rounded million-dollar figures.)
- Describes events of
- Public from
What would settle it
Revenue and cash-flow records through September 29 for both companies, reconciled to the estimates' definitions, together with dated records of the full-year projections.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Where's Your Ed At, The Case Against Generative AI
Even Anthropic and OpenAI seem a little lethargic, both burning billions of dollars while making, by my estimates, no more than $2 billion and $6.26 billion in 2025 so far, despite projections of $5 billion and $13 billion respectively.
- Where
- paragraph 178
- Published
- 2025-09-29
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment wyea-the-case-against-generative-ai-c415cd-a1: Current. Outcome: Unresolved. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment wyea-the-case-against-generative-ai-c415cd-a1.