Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron, page 4 of 13
Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Ed Zitron and the sources covered.
Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron (1290)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 4 of 13: claims 301 to 400 of 1290, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I challenge everybody reading this to start living in the present, and to stop taking excuses for the mediocrity of AI.”
Our reading: People should stop accepting excuses for AI's mediocrity and judge it on the present.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Put another way, the tech industry has become the largest cargo cult of all time.”
Our reading: The tech industry has become the largest cargo cult of all time.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Unless OpenAI is one of the single largest accounts in digital advertising, I think it’s far more likely that there are actual costs being hidden.”
Our reading: Unless OpenAI is among the largest digital advertisers, it is far more likely that real costs are hidden in its sales and marketing line.
No horizon
Qualifier: unless OpenAI is one of the largest digital advertising accounts
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It’s simple: the tech industry has completely run out of ideas, and all that’s left is a cargo cult that hasn’t had a human experience since 2015.”
Our reading: The tech industry has completely run out of ideas and is now a cargo cult.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest none of these guys actually contributed very much in their most-recent tenures, and that their hiring and positions were further cargo cult moves.”
Our reading: Shazeer, Karpathy, and Zoph probably contributed little in their most recent tenures at AI labs, and their hiring was cargo cult behavior.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“And however you feel about AI, you should demand better proof of its inevitability than a bunch of mythology, hype, and cargo cult bullshit.”
Our reading: People should demand better proof of AI's inevitability than mythology and hype.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“AI is the natural endpoint of the Valley’s cargo culture — money-hungry models that can vaguely resemble something that might grow into the future, with opportunities to deploy capital that resemble previous infrastructure movements, all with convenient ways to explain away dissent that mostly boil down to “bad thing happen before but then good thing happen after.””
Our reading: AI is the natural endpoint of Silicon Valley's cargo culture.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The use of annualized revenues (the single-most easily manipulated metric in Valley history) as a means of promoting growth only exists as a means of spreading the symbology of hypergrowth, all while deliberately obfuscating the actual financial health of the company”
Our reading: In the AI bubble, annualized revenue is used only to spread the symbolism of hypergrowth while deliberately obscuring companies' actual financial health by extrapolating an annual figure from a single monthly or weekly snapshot, which is especially egregious because it includes non-recurring charges like spending via Anthropic's API.
No horizon
Scope: the economics of the AI bubble
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Why does anybody think LLMs are going to change anything? Because everybody vaguely came to the consensus that ChatGPT was trending in the direction that something would change.”
Our reading: People think LLMs are going to change things because everybody vaguely came to the consensus that ChatGPT was trending in the direction that something would change.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Perhaps they’re lucky enough to have businesses that effectively run themselves, or monopolies that can survive having 98% of their free cash flow spent on AI data centers that only lose money, or are smart enough to stay out of the way of the people who actually do work.”
Our reading: Perhaps some company leaders run monopolies that can survive spending 98% of their free cash flow on AI data centers, which he says only lose money.
No horizon
Qualifier: perhaps (one of several alternatives offered)
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta sunk what will soon be over a trillion dollars into AI data centers because they don’t have any other ideas, and because the only thing that the MBA’d elites running the tech industry can do is hire people, fire people and spend money.”
Our reading: Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta have sunk what will soon be over a trillion dollars into AI data centers because they have no other ideas and because the MBA'd elites running the tech industry can only hire people, fire people and spend money.
No horizon
Scope: Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It can’t magic up $2 trillion in revenue by 2030 for an industry that basically doesn’t exist without OpenAI or Anthropic.”
Our reading: Faith alone cannot produce $2 trillion in AI revenue by 2030 for an industry that basically does not exist without OpenAI or Anthropic.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“If you’re an AI booster yourself, know that the AI companies treat you with complete contempt.”
Our reading: AI companies treat AI boosters with complete contempt.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We believe this most likely refers to the cost of training OpenAI’s models.”
Our reading: OpenAI's $10.59 billion R&D payment to Microsoft in 2025 most likely reflects the cost of training OpenAI's models.
No horizon
Source: Exclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 Billion
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Losses also appear to be mounting year-over-year at a dramatic rate, and I’m not sure how this company finds a way toward any kind of sustainability or profitability.”
Our reading: The author doubts that OpenAI can find a path to sustainability or profitability.
No horizon
Source: Exclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 Billion
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Some are attempting to read this story as bullish for Anthropic — that the government will work with it to bring the models back online, creating a proxy marketing campaign for its models — and while I think that’s possible, if not likely, I think there’re many other possibilities.”
Our reading: It is possible, if not likely, that the US government will work with Anthropic to bring its models back online, in effect creating a proxy marketing campaign for them, though there are many other possibilities.
No horizon
Qualifier: possible, if not likely
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“In fact, their costs appear to be increasing, which is why they’ve raised (assuming the rounds completely close) over $230 billion in the last six months.”
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's costs appear to be increasing, which is why they have raised over $230 billion in the last six months, assuming the rounds completely close.
No horizon
Qualifier: assuming the rounds completely close
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The outright mythology of Mythos existed to scare people and help Anthropic raise at a $965 billion valuation”
Our reading: Anthropic's Mythos marketing existed to scare people and help Anthropic raise money at a $965 billion valuation.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Amazon and Microsoft are far more scared of the White House than they are of killing their golden goose, and may honestly be relieved to find a reason to bring this era to an end.”
Our reading: Amazon and Microsoft fear the White House more than losing AI labs and may be relieved to end this era.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: I believe a large majority of AI token spend — and specifically Anthropic’s revenue growth — has come from Business Idiots disconnected from any real work that have become convinced that “lots of AI” would do something other than rack up massive bills.”
Our reading: He believes a large majority of AI token spend, and specifically Anthropic's revenue growth, has come from 'Business Idiots' disconnected from any real work who became convinced that 'lots of AI' would do something other than rack up massive bills.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“it’s becoming clear that token-based billing might genuinely not work as a viable business line.”
Our reading: Token-based billing may not work as a viable business line for AI labs.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The fact that Anthropic and OpenAI have any business left after stories like these is proof that the vast majority of companies paying for these services are doing so because they feel pressured to by their peers, investors or the media.”
Our reading: That Anthropic and OpenAI have any business left after stories like these is proof that the vast majority of companies paying for their services do so because they feel pressured by peers, investors or the media.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I agree with anyone saying there should be a pause in the development of generative AI, but I do so based on the belief that this is a doomed grift and science experiment masquerading as an industry”
Our reading: There should be a pause in the development of generative AI, because it is a doomed grift masquerading as an industry.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The other problem is that this is terrible, terrible timing for an AI industry in the throes of a cost crisis. Anthropic and OpenAI’s IPOs depend on myth, hype, and certainty that their growth will never slow.”
Our reading: The AI industry is in a cost crisis, and Anthropic's and OpenAI's IPOs depend on hype and certainty of never-slowing growth.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“A 50% price cut doesn’t actually answer the question of “why am I paying so much for this,” and unless the price cuts are to DeepSeek levels (which would also be fatal), it’s hard to see how organizations are going to be won over.”
Our reading: A 50% price cut does not answer customers' question of why they are paying so much, and unless the price cuts go as low as DeepSeek levels, which would also be fatal, it is hard to see how organizations will be won over.
No horizon
Only if: unless the price cuts go as low as DeepSeek levels
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Fable is, of course, just another large language model that’s an indeterminate amount of “better” than the last one.”
Our reading: Anthropic's Fable is just another large language model only an indeterminate amount better than its predecessor.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“This means that there’s every chance this both cuts revenues and ends up with organizations using fewer tokens.”
Our reading: If the token price cuts happen, there is every chance they will both cut the AI labs' revenues and lead organizations to use fewer tokens.
No horizon
Only if: if the token price cuts happen
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“This isn’t a real business model because generative AI companies are not real businesses.”
Our reading: Generative AI companies are not real businesses.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Anthropic and OpenAI represent what I believe may be the last hypergrowth startups, and their collapse (however it may happen) will represent the end of the dream of founding a little company that turns into the next Google or Meta.”
Our reading: He believes Anthropic and OpenAI may be the last hypergrowth startups, and their collapse, however it happens, will represent the end of the dream of founding a little company that becomes the next Google or Meta.
No horizon
Qualifier: what I believe may be
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It’s hard to see how everything goes back to normal from here. Even if Anthropic gets its models greenlit for availability, it’s clear the government has some animus against it after Q1’s battle with the Department of Defense”
Our reading: It is unlikely Anthropic's situation goes back to normal, since the government has animus against it even if its models are re-approved.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if Anthropic gets its models greenlit
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This, combined with Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman saying Anthropic’s models were too expensive and Andy Jassy likely being part of the reason that Anthropic got banned makes me think that hyperscalers might be trying to cast doubt on the inevitability of AI labs.”
Our reading: Hyperscalers such as Microsoft and Amazon may be trying to cast doubt on the inevitability of AI labs.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This obscene and wasteful subsidy is what you do when you have little to no confidence in the actual value of your product!”
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's obscene and wasteful subscription subsidies are what a company does when it has little to no confidence in the actual value of its product.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Hell, let’s take it one step further: neither OpenAI nor Anthropic is a real business.”
Our reading: Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic is a real business.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I am still skeptical that this is a real shift away, if only because using open source models requires you to either work with an inference provider or run your own GPUs.”
Our reading: It is doubtful there is a real enterprise shift away from frontier models to open-source models.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“They do not have a plan.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic have no plan to become profitable.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Those excited about generative AI are either the victim or the perpetrator of a con centered around a technology to ingratiate at the highest cost possible.”
Our reading: Generative AI enthusiasm is the product of a con, and its enthusiasts are either its victims or its perpetrators.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Slowing Down
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“One of my sources has come forward and brought me a story that will possibly burst the AI bubble.”
Our reading: A story he expects to publish within two weeks may burst the AI bubble.
No horizon
Qualifier: once his upcoming story is published
Source: AI Is Slowing Down
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Sidenote: Amazon and Meta barely have AI stories.”
Our reading: Amazon and Meta barely have AI stories.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Slowing Down
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I think that’s by design. AI labs want their costs to be high so that they can continue growing at ridiculous rates, all so that they can keep feeding money to their hyperscaler compute partners who then invest that money right back into them, creating further reasons to keep buying NVIDIA GPUs, so that NVIDIA can then invest that money back into either AI compute providers (who OpenAI and Anthropic pay) or the AI labs themselves.”
Our reading: He thinks it is by design that AI labs want their costs to be high, so they can keep growing fast and feeding money to hyperscaler compute partners, who invest it back into the labs and buy more NVIDIA GPUs, while NVIDIA in turn invests in compute providers or the labs.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: AI Is Slowing Down
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“These are signs that AI’s revenue growth is slowing, and it’s likely going to slow further, because we currently live in an era where Anthropic and OpenAI are straight-up abusing its clients, providing limited-to-no visibility into spend, per the Wall Street Journal:”
Our reading: AI revenue growth will likely slow further, because Anthropic and OpenAI give customers little or no visibility into what they are spending.
No horizon
Qualifier: because Anthropic and OpenAI give customers little visibility into spend
Source: AI Is Slowing Down
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“OpenAI expects to spend $50 billion on compute in 2026, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Anthropic spends anywhere from $30 billion to $50 billion.”
Our reading: Anthropic may spend $30 billion to $50 billion on compute in 2026.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Slowing Down
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The only way to inflate the AI bubble both on a hardware and software level was to mislead the general public and investors on the costs and efficacy of AI models.”
Our reading: The AI bubble could only be inflated by misleading the public and investors about the costs and efficacy of AI models.
No horizon
Source: AI Doesn't Have ROI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Nevertheless, the threat of AI job loss has been enough to allow both Sam Altman and Dario Amodei to raise hundreds of billions of dollars lying about it”
Our reading: The threat of AI job loss allowed Sam Altman and Dario Amodei to raise hundreds of billions of dollars while lying about it, and both have since walked back their job-loss claims.
No horizon
Source: AI Doesn't Have ROI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“They didn’t raise hundreds of billions of dollars by talking about any product currently on the market, and that’s because the current products are not very good products.”
Our reading: AI companies did not raise hundreds of billions of dollars by talking about any product currently on the market, because current products are not very good.
No horizon
Source: AI Doesn't Have ROI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In fact, I’d be willing to believe that AI had a negative economic impact, increasing operating expenses across the board and giving some software engineers prompt-based concussions by automating some coding in a way that makes them lazy and bad at writing software”
Our reading: AI may have had a negative economic impact, raising operating expenses and making some software engineers worse at writing software.
No horizon
Source: AI Doesn't Have ROI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Anthropic, OpenAI and every other AI company deliberately obfuscated these costs because they knew that the second a user actually had to pay for the fuckups of an AI model they’d scream like they were being stung to death by bees.”
Our reading: Anthropic, OpenAI and every other AI company deliberately obscured the costs of AI use because they knew that as soon as users had to pay for a model's mistakes they would scream in protest.
No horizon
Scope: every other AI company
Source: AI Doesn't Have ROI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Every different prompt and project and interaction can go wrong in a way that is hard to predict or plan for other than having an eternal vigilance that the supposed “intelligence” doesn’t do something catastrophically stupid, because LLMs have no thoughts, consciousness or ability to learn outside of pre and post-training.”
Our reading: Every LLM prompt, project and interaction can go wrong in ways that are hard to predict or plan for, short of constant vigilance against catastrophically stupid behaviour, because LLMs have no thoughts, consciousness or ability to learn outside pre-training and post-training.
No horizon
Qualifier: hard to predict or plan for
Source: AI Doesn't Have ROI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These users — much like the users of effectively every subsidized AI subscription — never really knew how much anything they did cost, because Microsoft intentionally hid the actual cost of prompts and allowed users to spend obscene amounts as a way of boosting growth for GitHub Copilot.”
Our reading: Microsoft intentionally hid the actual cost of GitHub Copilot prompts and let users overspend in order to boost growth.
No horizon
Source: AI Doesn't Have ROI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“I realize I’m painting with a broad brush, so let me get a broader one: I believe anyone who relies on LLMs for anything is a mark.”
Our reading: Anyone who relies on LLMs for anything is a mark.
No horizon
Source: AI Doesn't Have ROI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“That fact AI companies backed by the full manufactured consent of the markets and most of the economy still had to subsidize their products shows exactly how flimsy their value truly is.”
Our reading: The fact that AI companies, backed by the full manufactured consent of the markets and most of the economy, still had to subsidize their products shows exactly how flimsy their value is.
No horizon
Qualifier: backed by the full manufactured consent of the markets and most of the economy
Source: AI Doesn't Have ROI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“This shit needs to work every time without fail and be absolutely flawless and autonomous.”
Our reading: AI needs to work every time without fail and be absolutely flawless and autonomous.
No horizon
Source: AI Doesn't Have ROI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Sam Altman’s comments about “intelligence too cheap to meter” were lies.”
Our reading: Sam Altman's claims about 'intelligence too cheap to meter' were lies.
No horizon
Source: AI Doesn't Have ROI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“While I’m not saying every LLM user is an imbecile, they’re built to convince the mediocre and incurious that they’re remarkable, and it turns out that a great many of them run venture capital firms and Fortune 500 companies.”
Our reading: LLMs are built to convince the mediocre and incurious that they are remarkable, and a great many such people run venture capital firms and Fortune 500 companies.
No horizon
Qualifier: not every LLM user is an imbecile
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I don’t think LLMs, as a tool, are a grift. There are use cases, though those use cases are miniscule compared to the egregious promises and extrapolations made by the majority of the media and the executive sect, and absolutely nothing about them warrants the amount of money invested in them.”
Our reading: LLMs as a tool are not a grift and have use cases, but those use cases are minuscule compared to the promises and extrapolations of most of the media and executives, and nothing about them warrants the amount of money invested in them.
No horizon
Qualifier: compared to the egregious promises and extrapolations
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“And they want you to do that because they’re losing.”
Our reading: The AI industry is losing.
No horizon
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Anthropic is either the single-most successful grifter of all time or speed-running a con where it fudges together numbers to raise endless amounts of money to keep its billion-dollar burn going.”
Our reading: Anthropic is either the most successful grifter of all time or speed-running a con in which it fudges numbers to raise endless money to keep its billion-dollar burn going.
No horizon
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It is inefficient, power-intensive, environmentally destructive, and inherently sold based on things that it might do, providing far more value to scam artists and con men than it does to its end users.”
Our reading: The AI industry and its LLMs are inefficient, power-intensive, environmentally destructive, inherently sold on what they might do, and provide far more value to scam artists and con men than to end users.
No horizon
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Organizations aren’t burning millions or hundreds of millions of dollars a year on AI because it’s good, they’re doing it because they are run by people who do not know what the fuck they’re doing.”
Our reading: Organizations spend heavily on AI because of incompetent leadership, not because AI is good.
No horizon
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Only an economy oriented around coveting and coddling losers would have let AI get this far.”
Our reading: Only an economy oriented around coveting and coddling losers would have let AI get this far.
No horizon
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“That’s because underneath the puffery and the propaganda and the pervasive sense of inevitability, the AI industry is losing. Anthropic and OpenAI’s revenue growth is only possible thanks to a near-perpetual misinformation campaign that overstates both the current and future capabilities of LLMs, and a near-society-wide ignorance at the executive level.”
Our reading: The AI industry is losing; Anthropic and OpenAI revenue growth depends on misinformation that overstates LLM capabilities and on executive ignorance.
No horizon
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This is what an industry does when it’s in distinct, existential distress.”
Our reading: The AI industry is in existential distress.
No horizon
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“LLMs were meant to be the thing that replaced all workers, but the actual outputs and outcomes don’t seem to be resulting in anything changing other than lots of things becoming worse or more-expensive.”
Our reading: LLMs were meant to replace all workers, but their actual outputs and outcomes don't seem to be changing anything other than making lots of things worse or more expensive.
No horizon
Qualifier: don't seem to be
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It’s very likely that Dario Amodei and Sam Altman’s plan is to keep burning money until somebody who works for them comes up with a way not to, and in the interim their plan is to get as many users as they can to keep raising money.”
Our reading: It is very likely that Dario Amodei's and Sam Altman's plan is to keep burning money until someone who works for them finds a way not to, and in the meantime to get as many users as they can so they can keep raising money.
No horizon
Qualifier: very likely
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“And yet none of it’s really working, because Business Idiots don’t really know how anything works.”
Our reading: None of the Business Idiots' push to have AI automate work and remove other people is really working, because Business Idiots don't really know how anything works.
No horizon
Qualifier: really
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“AI is a perfect storm of failed concepts and organizations, and the apex of the Era of the Business Idiot, an epoch where we’re ruled by people so thoroughly disconnected from the actual workforce that it was inevitable that a technology would be created specifically to grift them.”
Our reading: AI is a combination of failed concepts and organizations and a technology made to grift disconnected executives.
No horizon
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“No CEO that talks of a theoretical future as a means of selling you software in the present should be trusted. No technology that makes mistakes with regularity should be defended.”
Our reading: CEOs who sell software on a theoretical future should not be trusted, and technology that regularly makes mistakes should not be defended.
No horizon
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“There is no other plan. They do not have a secret invention coming. They do not have AGI in a box in their office.”
Our reading: Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon have no plan other than building data centers in the hope of having a use for them, no secret invention coming, and no AGI in a box in their offices.
No horizon
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These men have no other hypergrowth ideas, and are more willing to annihilate their cashflows and dominate the Earth with half-finished data centers than to admit that their core businesses will eventually decline.”
Our reading: Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella and Andy Jassy have no other hypergrowth ideas and are more willing to annihilate their cashflows and fill the Earth with half-finished data centers than to admit that their core businesses will eventually decline.
No horizon
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In a rational society, Salesforce’s stock would take a beating and the SEC would open an immediate and brutal investigation.”
Our reading: Salesforce's marketing of AI capabilities that are not live should cause its stock to fall and prompt an SEC investigation.
No horizon
Qualifier: in a rational society
Source: Revenge of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I’ve also speculated that the reason why OpenAI has favored this metric is because it’s easy to manipulate.”
Our reading: OpenAI may favor the weekly active users metric because it is easy to manipulate.
No horizon
Qualifier: speculation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“If I had to guess, it’s likely that investors have begun to demand firmer, more “real company”-adjacent numbers, and while Anthropic was able to find a clever way to manipulate them as a means of raising funding, OpenAI was forced to share numbers a little closer to reality.”
Our reading: Investors have likely begun demanding firmer financials, with Anthropic manipulating its numbers to raise funding and OpenAI forced to share numbers closer to reality.
No horizon
Qualifier: a guess
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Perhaps that’s why OpenAI is rushing to go public - it realizes it might have tapped out private investors.”
Our reading: OpenAI is rushing to go public, and perhaps it is doing so because it realizes it might have tapped out private investors.
No horizon
Qualifier: perhaps
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While OpenAI brought in a billion dollars more than Anthropic in Q1 2026, The Information couldn’t get ahold of OpenAI’s numbers for Q2 2026, but at $45 billion in ARR - $3.75 billion in a month - Anthropic may have taken the lead.”
Our reading: Anthropic may have overtaken OpenAI in revenue in Q2 2026, if its reported numbers are accurate.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Anthropic's numbers are accurate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Nevertheless, while this represents an improvement over the 2.583% rate in February of last year, it’s likely improved as a result of cheaper ad-supported ChatGPT “Go” subscribers at $5 or $8 a month, depending on geography.”
Our reading: ChatGPT's improved conversion rate is likely due to cheaper ad-supported ChatGPT Go subscriptions.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“For large enterprises, Anthropic is taking prepayment of tokens —-- say, $50 million intended to be spread over 12 months that it takes in as revenue.This would both inflate revenue numbers and depress costs, because Anthropic wouldn’t have actually provided the compute necessary to earn that revenue yet.”
Our reading: Zitron guesses Anthropic may be booking enterprise token prepayments as revenue up front, which would inflate revenue and depress costs.
No horizon
Qualifier: offered as a guess
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“If Anthropic paid full-rate for its compute in those two months, its economics would shift back to what they’ve always been per my reporting from last year on its AWS costs — a business that has costs that linearly increase with its revenue growth.”
Our reading: Without the discounted compute rate in May and June 2026, Anthropic would again be a business whose costs rise linearly with revenue.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Anthropic paid full-rate for compute in May and June
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“There’s also a very compelling argument that Anthropic’s costs will increase and will eat up that profitability, to once again quote the Wall Street Journal:”
Our reading: Zitron says there is a very compelling argument that Anthropic's costs will increase and will eat up its reported profitability.
No horizon
Qualifier: supported by the WSJ note that it might not remain profitable for the full year
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Anthropic timed this leak to focus on a specific quarter where it artificially suppressed costs, and gave you the flimsiest proof imaginable, specifically-crafted for you to share it as a triumph and spread the idea that “AI labs are actually profitable,” when their core economics haven’t changed.”
Our reading: Anthropic timed this leak to focus on a specific quarter where it artificially suppressed costs, giving the flimsiest proof imaginable, crafted for people to spread the idea that AI labs are actually profitable, when their core economics haven't changed.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“I will give Dario Amodei credit: nobody does financial engineering and a press-led information war better than Anthropic.”
Our reading: Anthropic is unmatched at financial engineering and waging information wars through the press.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Anthropic could have ratcheted down training to ease the burden on its infrastructure to provide inference.”
Our reading: One possible explanation is that Anthropic could have ratcheted down training to ease the burden on its infrastructure to provide inference.
No horizon
Qualifier: offered as one of several guesses
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Anthropic could be front-loading annual commitments of any kind —– subscriptions to Claude, enterprise or team agreements, and so on.”
Our reading: Anthropic could be front-loading annual commitments as revenue.
No horizon
Qualifier: offered as a guess
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“While I wouldn’t say this is cooking the books, it’s definitely a shiatsu-grade massaging of the numbers.”
Our reading: Zitron would not call Anthropic's profitability figure cooking the books, but says it is definitely a heavy ('shiatsu-grade') massaging of the numbers.
No horizon
Qualifier: I wouldn't say this is cooking the books
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“That’s right —-- Anthropic is possibly going to be EBITDA profitable for a single quarter, on a non-GAAP basis.”
Our reading: Anthropic is possibly going to be EBITDA profitable for a single quarter, the second quarter of 2026, on a non-GAAP basis.
No horizon
Qualifier: for a single quarter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Nevertheless, the revenue side is where the real problems lie.”
Our reading: The real problems with Anthropic's profitability claim are in its revenue figures.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Anthropic has deliberately leaked a quarterly “profit” where it knows it can suppress its costs, specifically made sure that the journalist gave it the out of “costs might increase,” and released it on the day of NVIDIA’s earnings as a means of keeping the AI bubble inflated.”
Our reading: Anthropic deliberately leaked a quarterly 'profit' for a quarter where it knew it could suppress its costs, made sure the journalist gave it the out that 'costs might increase', and released it on the day of NVIDIA's earnings as a means of keeping the AI bubble inflated.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Let me speak directly and with more empathy than usual: if you want Anthropic to win, you should be just as skeptical of these numbers as I am.”
Our reading: People who want Anthropic to win should be just as skeptical of its reported numbers as Zitron is.
No horizon
Qualifier: if you want Anthropic to win
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It may very well be booking this up-front.”
Our reading: Anthropic may be booking discounted prepaid Claude credits as revenue up front.
No horizon
Qualifier: discounted Claude extra credits
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Nobody wants this, nobody wanted it since the beginning, it was forced upon everyone, and to pretend otherwise is laughable and offensive.”
Our reading: There is no genuine demand for generative AI; it was forced on everyone.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Executives have, across the board, given their engineers free reign to burn as many tokens as they’d like, and while I severely doubt that Anthropic actually hit $50 billion in annualized revenue outside of not-quite-fraudulent non-GAAP measurements, I believe its revenue growth has come from an artificial boost from a tech industry searching for a reason to pay somebody money.”
Our reading: Executives across the board have given engineers free rein to burn tokens, Zitron severely doubts Anthropic actually hit $50 billion in annualized revenue outside of not-quite-fraudulent non-GAAP measurements, and he believes its revenue growth has come from an artificial boost from a tech industry searching for a reason to pay somebody money.
No horizon
Scope: outside of not-quite-fraudulent non-GAAP measurements
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“One important detail to keep in mind here is that as of a month or two ago, Anthropic moved all enterprise customers to token-based-billing, which will begin, I believe, a true stress-test of the true “value” of AI as costs skyrocket.”
Our reading: Zitron believes Anthropic's move of all enterprise customers to token-based billing will begin a true stress-test of AI's value as costs skyrocket.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Unless, of course, you can’t actually measure how many tokens a particular task can take with much accuracy, in which case every single AI token budget is bullshit.”
Our reading: If you can't measure with much accuracy how many tokens a particular task takes, then every AI token budget is bullshit.
No horizon
Only if: if you can't measure how many tokens a task takes with much accuracy
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“If we assume that Microsoft’s other AI services grew 10% quarter-over-quarter, I estimate that Microsoft likely made around $17.9 billion in AI revenue in FY2025, or a little under a fifth of its capex.”
Our reading: Assuming Microsoft's other AI services grew 10% quarter-over-quarter, Zitron estimates Microsoft likely made around $17.9 billion in AI revenue in FY2025, a little under a fifth of its capex.
No horizon
Qualifier: assuming Microsoft's other AI services grew 10% quarter-over-quarter
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Anthropic has done a great deal of work to obfuscate how much it actually makes or spends, but I think it’s likely it burns even more than OpenAI, given the fact that it’s had to raise $75 billion in the last 6 months”
Our reading: Anthropic obfuscates its finances and likely burns even more money than OpenAI.
No horizon
Qualifier: inferred from $75B raised in 6 months
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Because even if Anthropic were making $100 billion in annual revenue, it would probably be losing $300 billion or more to get there.”
Our reading: If Anthropic reached $100B annual revenue it would probably be losing $300B or more to get there.
No horizon
Only if: if Anthropic reached $100B annual revenue
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Generative AI was purpose-built to grift an economy run by executives and managers who don’t actually do any work.”
Our reading: Generative AI was built to grift executives and managers who don't do real work.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“If the margins were good, they’d be sharing the margins. If the revenues were good, they’d be sharing the revenues (and no, run rates aren’t revenues).”
Our reading: Hyperscalers' failure to disclose AI margins and revenues indicates they are not good.
No horizon
Qualifier: inferred from non-disclosure
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“We should make everybody who obsessed over theoretical ideas about what AI can or will do ashamed for their intellectual deceit or constant ignorance.”
Our reading: AI boosters who obsessed over theoretical AI capabilities should be shamed for their deceit or ignorance.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I think the answer is simple: their CFOs know that doing so would reveal their actual margins, which are hot dogshit with sprinkles on top.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks Anthropic's and OpenAI's CFOs know that going public would reveal their actual margins, which he calls extremely bad, and that this is why neither appears to be seriously considering an IPO.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While I’m not accusing Anthropic of anything untoward, massive, multi-million dollar contracts that involve individuals burning thousands or tens of thousands of dollars’ worth of tokens with no service level agreement, transparency or true granularity into the burn is a perfect setup for a company — not saying it’s Anthropic! — to do something dastardly with those numbers.”
Our reading: Multi-million-dollar token contracts with no service level agreement, transparency or true granularity into usage are a perfect setup for a company to do something dastardly with the numbers, though Zitron explicitly says he is not accusing Anthropic.
No horizon
Scope: no service level agreement, transparency or true granularity
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“(Oracle is trying to compete and may die as a result)”
Our reading: Oracle may die as a result of trying to compete as an AI cloud provider.
No horizon
Qualifier: as a result of trying to compete in AI cloud
Source: AI Is Too Expensive