Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Gary Marcus Marcus on AI Published

AGI isn’t coming in 2025, and GPT-5 probably isn’t either.

We recorded 8 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 5 can’t be checked. 3 more are held. Read the post at its source.

Claims from this post (8)

In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.

  1. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Despite the daily shouts of “exponential progress” for nearly two years, GPT-5 hasn’t come.”

    What we tested: As of January 2025, GPT-5 has not been released despite nearly two years of claims of exponential progress.

    What happened: On 21 December 2024, GPT-5 (Orion) was reported as still in development, and OpenAI had said it would not release it in 2024. So it had not come out by the post date. (TechCrunch, )

  2. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “But it’s becoming increasingly clear that they are struggling in building a model worthy of the GPT-5 name.”

    What we tested: OpenAI is struggling to build a model worthy of the GPT-5 name.

    What happened: Reports from OpenAI staff, via The Information, said Orion's gains over GPT-4 were much smaller than past generational leaps. (TechRadar (summarizing The Information), )

  3. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “The hypothesis I have been floating since 2022 that scaling data alone would not be enough for robust AI has become increasingly prevalent.”

    What we tested: Marcus's hypothesis, which he has been floating since 2022, that scaling data alone would not be enough for robust AI has become increasingly prevalent.

    What happened: Independent reporting confirms the 2022 advocacy timeline. The surrounding discussion identifies the argument as concerning reliability, reasoning and understanding, rather than a claim that all technical improvement would stop. (Big Think, )

  4. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “We might see GPT-5 this year, but given bottlenecks on data and inherent limits in LLMs we may well not.”

    What we tested: GPT-5 may well not be released in 2025, owing to data bottlenecks and inherent limits of LLMs.

  5. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “o3 is a real advance in some domains beyond GPT-4, but it’s likely not the quantum leap forward people would expect of the name GPT-5, and at a rumored $1000/querry certainly not at the price point anyone might have hoped for”

    What we tested: o3 is a real advance beyond GPT-4 in some domains, but it is likely not the quantum leap people would expect of the name GPT-5, and at a rumored $1000 per query it is certainly not at the price point anyone might have hoped for.

  6. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “He made some of his usual overpromises (500,000 humanoid robots in three years, which seems to very unlikely)”

    What we tested: Musk's promise of 500,000 humanoid robots in three years seems very unlikely to be fulfilled.

  7. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “I won’t be at all surprised if don’t even see anything worthy of the GPT-5 name”

    What we tested: It is quite possible that no model worthy of the GPT-5 name will appear in 2025.

  8. Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid

    “Gary Marcus wishes the media would hold those who make unrealistic promises to account.”

    What we tested: The media should hold those who make unrealistic AI promises to account.

Held from this post (3)

These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.