“Despite the daily shouts of “exponential progress” for nearly two years, GPT-5 hasn’t come.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
As of January 2025, GPT-5 has not been released despite nearly two years of claims of exponential progress.
Assessment: Supported Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, AGI isn’t coming in 2025, and GPT-5 probably isn’t either., paragraph 1.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-agi-isnt-coming-in-2025-and-gpt-5-1add49-a2
We recorded 8 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2025-01-09. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- GPT-5 hasn't come
- despite the daily shouts of 'exponential progress' for nearly two years
- as of the post date, 9 January 2025
Our interpretation
- Read as: as of 9 January 2025, OpenAI had not released a model called GPT-5.
- The 'daily shouts of exponential progress' part is rhetorical framing. It is not scored as a separate factual claim.
- 'Nearly two years' is read as the period since GPT-4's release in March 2023, up to the post date.
Counts as supported if: Evidence from the period shows that GPT-5 was still unreleased or in development as of early January 2025.
Counts as contradicted if: Evidence shows that OpenAI publicly released a model named GPT-5 on or before 9 January 2025.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Supported
The dated evidence matches what the claim committed to, under the criteria frozen before grading.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
The claim is that GPT-5 had not been released by 9 January 2025. On 21 December 2024, TechCrunch, summarizing the WSJ, reported that GPT-5 was still in development and behind schedule. It added that OpenAI had said it would not release Orion in 2024. OpenAI's own launch page introduces GPT-5 on 7 August 2025. So GPT-5 had not come out when Marcus wrote. The phrase about 'daily shouts of exponential progress' is rhetoric and is not scored.
Limitations
- The in-period evidence is a news summary of a paywalled WSJ report.
- The rhetorical framing about 'exponential progress' claims was not tested.
Evidence (3 items)
Supports the claim: TechCrunch,
The company previously said it would not be releasing a model code-named Orion this year.
Why it matters here: On 21 December 2024, GPT-5 (Orion) was reported as still in development, and OpenAI had said it would not release it in 2024. So it had not come out by the post date.
- Publisher
- TechCrunch
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Supports the claim: TechCrunch (summarizing The Wall Street Journal),
OpenAI’s efforts to develop its next major model, GPT-5, are running behind schedule
Why it matters here: Describes GPT-5 as still being developed and behind schedule less than three weeks before the post.
- Where
- paragraph 1
- Publisher
- TechCrunch (summarizing The Wall Street Journal)
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Context only: OpenAI,
We are introducing GPT‑5, our best AI system yet.
Why it matters here: OpenAI's own launch page introduces GPT-5 on 7 August 2025. This confirms it was not out in January 2025.
- Publisher
- OpenAI
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- Describes events of
- Public from
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, AGI isn’t coming in 2025, and GPT-5 probably isn’t either.
Despite the daily shouts of “exponential progress” for nearly two years, GPT-5 hasn’t come.
- Where
- paragraph 1
- Published
- 2025-01-09
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-agi-isnt-coming-in-2025-and-gpt-5-1add49-a2: Current. Outcome: Supported. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-agi-isnt-coming-in-2025-and-gpt-5-1add49-a2.