Claims that can’t be checked, page 4 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3677)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 4 of 37: claims 301 to 400 of 3677, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I’m not trying to be a buzzkill here, but I have meaningful concerns about OpenAI’s ability to survive, and they’ve only grown more pressing in the last few years.”
Our reading: Zitron has meaningful concerns about OpenAI's ability to survive, and those concerns have grown more pressing over the last few years.
No horizon
Qualifier: his own concerns
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“OpenAI has promised the impossible, and built a company that only makes sense if you’re willing to ignore the worst economics in the history of capitalism.”
Our reading: OpenAI has promised the impossible and has the worst economics in the history of capitalism.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“with investors “leaking” to the Financial Times that they thought it would have a $2 trillion valuation and have (sigh) annualized revenues of $100 billion to $120 billion by end of 2026, an entirely fictional statement made with the intent of pumping their bags”
Our reading: The investor statement leaked to the Financial Times, that Anthropic would have a $2 trillion valuation and $100–120 billion in annualized revenue by end of 2026, was entirely fictional and made to pump the investors' own holdings.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“In all likelihood, its deal and commitments will require it to spend more.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely have to spend more than $40.1 billion a year on Azure in Microsoft fiscal years 2027 and 2028.
No horizon
Qualifier: Microsoft Fiscal Years 2027 and 2028
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all have vested interests — literally and figuratively — in at least appearing to get paid by OpenAI, which means they’re likely work with it on deferred payments and/or equity shares in trade, likely instituting some sort of bastardization of the already-problematic “payment-in-kind” system used by private credit when it can’t afford it loans.”
Our reading: Microsoft, Google and Amazon will likely accept deferred payments or equity from OpenAI to keep up the appearance of being paid.
No horizon
Qualifier: when OpenAI can't pay
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“The ability for any investor at this point to make a significant return is very, very small”
Our reading: New investors in OpenAI at current valuations are very unlikely to make a significant return.
No horizon
Qualifier: investing at current valuations
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But his habit of giving people unrealistic hope is not one of them.”
Our reading: Amodei has a habit of giving people unrealistic hope, and Marcus does not respect this about him.
No horizon
Source: No, Dario Amodei, we will not be curing cancer and “most human disease” in five to ten years
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In fairness, Amodei may believe what he says, but in that case he ought take Dr. Young’s suggestion of doing a medical internship, in order to better calibrate his understanding of the challenges in medicine.”
Our reading: If Amodei believes his claims, he should do a medical internship to better understand the challenges in medicine.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Amodei believes what he says
Source: No, Dario Amodei, we will not be curing cancer and “most human disease” in five to ten years
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“(I further argued that we don’t really have the right kind of causally- and biologically-sophisticated AI yet. New advances in AI and math don’t fundamentally change what I wrote there.)”
Our reading: We don't really have the right kind of causally and biologically sophisticated AI yet, and new advances in AI and math don't fundamentally change what Marcus argued about this.
No horizon
Qualifier: don't really
Source: No, Dario Amodei, we will not be curing cancer and “most human disease” in five to ten years
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Nvidia is releasing a new version of its truly open-source (not just open-weight) Nemotron model, which is good for end users and developers but that could also ultimately undercut places like OpenAI and Anthropic with whom it has deals.”
Our reading: Nvidia's new truly open-source Nemotron model could ultimately undercut OpenAI and Anthropic, companies Nvidia has deals with.
No horizon
Qualifier: new truly open-source Nemotron release
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Nvidia is releasing a new version of its truly open-source (not just open-weight) Nemotron model, which is good for end users and developers but that could also ultimately undercut places like OpenAI and Anthropic with whom it has deals.”
Our reading: Nvidia's new truly open-source (not just open-weight) Nemotron release is good for end users and developers.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Greed, overhype, and recklessness have screwed it up.”
Our reading: Greed, overhype, and recklessness in the AI industry have spoiled what could have been a great technology.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Public backlash against AI will so be strong by 2028 that anti-AI sentiment will probably be a major factor in the 2028 US Presidential election.”
Our reading: Public backlash against AI will be so strong by 2028 that anti-AI sentiment will probably be a major factor in the 2028 US Presidential election.
No horizon
Qualifier: 'probably' applies only to anti-AI sentiment being a major factor in the election; the strong backlash is stated firmly
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Looks pretty on track.”
Our reading: His May 2025 prediction looks pretty on track. That prediction said public backlash against AI would be so strong by 2028 that anti-AI sentiment would probably be a major factor in the 2028 US Presidential election.
No horizon
Qualifier: 'pretty' softens the on-track judgment
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Every journalist that continues to ignore the obvious instability, circularity and centralization of the AI industry fails their audience by not discussing it before any discussions of AI’s theoretical returns or abilities. It is no longer ethically sound to ignore the problems.”
Our reading: Journalists should discuss the AI industry's instability, circularity and centralization before discussing its theoretical returns or abilities.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“When I wrote the Rot-Com Bubble in 2024, the AI bubble was a series of exploits used to mask the end of tech’s era of hypergrowth.”
Our reading: When he wrote the Rot-Com Bubble in 2024, the AI bubble was a series of exploits used to mask the end of tech's era of hypergrowth.
No horizon
Scope: when I wrote the Rot-Com Bubble in 2024
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Anthropic and OpenAI are only set to spend $100 billion on compute this year, and had to raise over $200 billion to do it, which makes it likely they’ll have to raise $150 billion each leading up to or in 2027.”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI will likely each need to raise about $150 billion by or during 2027.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It suggests that there is a calamitous lack of demand across both those renting GPUs and market demand for software built on top of AI models”
Our reading: Microsoft's roughly $10.33 billion in non-OpenAI AI revenue suggests a calamitous lack of demand both for GPU rentals and for software built on AI models.
No horizon
Qualifier: it suggests
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“To be clear, “growing super fast” is no longer sufficient for OpenAI and Anthropic.”
Our reading: Growing super fast is no longer sufficient for OpenAI and Anthropic.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“$10.33 billion in annual revenue is a catastrophic failure.”
Our reading: Microsoft's roughly $10.33 billion in annual non-OpenAI AI revenue is a catastrophic failure.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“It’s likely that the number is more like $220 billion. It’s likely more.”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI's 2027 compute spend on Google Cloud, AWS and Azure is likely about $220 billion or more.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“To not warn people that AI revenues are heavily-centralized around two companies that burn endless billions of dollars, and that the commensurate demand isn’t there as a result, is to both fail your readers and actively empower the powerful.”
Our reading: The media should warn readers that AI revenue is concentrated in two cash-burning companies and that matching demand is absent.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“This runs antithetical to productivity or good sense, and everybody involved in it should be both eternally shamed and shunned from any sensible business.”
Our reading: The practice of penalizing people who won't claim massive AI productivity benefits runs against productivity and good sense, and everybody involved in it should be eternally shamed and shunned from any sensible business.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Good bloody question Torsten! The answer is “probably not.””
Our reading: ROI for AI's end customers will probably not arrive fast enough to sustain the spending that generates upstream AI margins.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Many will bury their heads in the sand, make the kindest reads possible of every AI story, pump up every AI narrative, and celebrate every mediocre “achievement” right up until NVIDIA or a hyperscaler misses on analyst expectations, or AI labs start circling the drain.”
Our reading: Many commentators will keep hyping AI until NVIDIA or a hyperscaler misses analyst expectations or the AI labs begin to fail.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This does not establish that the prediction is false.
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“If there were actual diverse demand for NVIDIA’s GPUs commensurate with analyst expectations, you wouldn’t have to do these bizarre, painfully-circular deals that exist only to inflate its revenues and further prop up the existence of unprofitable AI labs!”
Our reading: If there were real, diverse demand for NVIDIA's GPUs matching analyst expectations, NVIDIA would not have to do these circular deals, which exist only to inflate its revenues and prop up unprofitable AI labs.
No horizon
Only if: if there were actual diverse demand commensurate with analyst expectations
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“No money has been raised, what will likely happen — if anything — is that NVIDIA will end up backstopping a few $10 billion data center deals, or perhaps invest a few billion in equity into an SPV built to raise debt to buy GPUs as it already did with xAI.”
Our reading: No money has been raised under the NVIDIA financing MOU; what will likely happen, if anything, is that NVIDIA ends up backstopping a few $10 billion data center deals, or perhaps invests a few billion in equity into an SPV built to raise debt to buy GPUs, as it did with xAI.
No horizon
Qualifier: if anything
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Everybody conflated the massive capex spend with the return of growth to the tech industry versus an industry-wide swindle.”
Our reading: The AI capex boom was an industry-wide swindle mistaken for renewed tech growth.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Furthermore, if you wanted to know how much of the training data was copyrighted, you can’t look at that either — which is perhaps part of why none of the big companies want to release true open-source, and instead settle for open-weight, getting nearly all of the positive press without actually helping the community nearly as much.”
Our reading: Not being able to see how much of the training data was copyrighted is perhaps part of why none of the big companies want to release true open-source and instead settle for open-weight, getting nearly all of the positive press without helping the community nearly as much.
No horizon
Qualifier: perhaps part of why
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“If pigeons are “just rats with better PR”, open-weights is open-source with all the good press but far fewer advantages.”
Our reading: Like pigeons being 'just rats with better PR', open-weight is open-source with all the good press but far fewer advantages.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Want to investigate how much of what the model does is regurgitation and how much extends beyond the training data, which is arguably the central question in AI?”
Our reading: How much of what a model does is regurgitation versus how much extends beyond its training data is arguably the central question in AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: arguably
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“All this makes a world of difference, to developers who might use the systems, to regulators, to scientists, and ultimately to the world.”
Our reading: The difference between open-weight and open-source makes a world of difference to developers who might use the systems, to regulators, to scientists, and ultimately to the world.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I implore them, and everyone else, for the love of Turing, please don’t confuse open-weight with open-source.”
Our reading: The media and everyone else should not confuse open-weight models with open-source models.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“His lack of name recognition may be a liability in the short-term, but his sobriety may be crucial in the long-run.”
Our reading: Kavukcuoglu's low name recognition may hurt Google short-term, but his sobriety may prove crucial long-term.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Google definitely doesn’t look unassailable like they once did, and may never be as strong as they once were, but it’s premature to count them out.”
Our reading: Google definitely doesn't look unassailable as it once did, and may never be as strong as it once was.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Google definitely doesn’t look unassailable like they once did, and may never be as strong as they once were, but it’s premature to count them out.”
Our reading: It is premature to count Google out.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“On the other hand, if things do turn out as I expect, and there is a multi-way tie with relatively modest profits, Anthropic and OpenAI don’t have that much else to fall back on; they may never earn out their investments.”
Our reading: If things turn out as he expects, with the LLM market a multi-way tie with relatively modest profits, Anthropic and OpenAI don't have that much else to fall back on and may never earn out their investments.
No horizon
Only if: if the LLM market turns out to be a multi-way tie with relatively modest profits, as he expects
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Google may simply outlast the other two.”
Our reading: Google may outlast OpenAI and Anthropic.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“That’s really bad, especially that his premise is probably off by a least a decade in the best case and quite possibly more.”
Our reading: Robots surpassing human surgeons will probably take at least a decade longer than Musk predicts, possibly more.
No horizon
Qualifier: in the best case
Source: Elon Musk’s preposterous and possibly harmful claim about robotic surgery
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Elon Musk is, like a lot of LLMs, frequently wrong and never in doubt.”
Our reading: Elon Musk, like a lot of LLMs, is frequently wrong and never in doubt.
No horizon
Qualifier: like a lot of LLMs
Source: Elon Musk’s preposterous and possibly harmful claim about robotic surgery
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It would be nice if these Tech CEOs were more accountable for what they said.”
Our reading: It would be nice if these tech CEOs were more accountable for what they said.
No horizon
Scope: these Tech CEOs
Source: Elon Musk’s preposterous and possibly harmful claim about robotic surgery
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Just as Hinton’s famous (and famously wrong) 2016 pronouncement about no longer needing to train radiologists probably scared away potential radiologists, Musk risks scaring away potential surgeons.”
Our reading: Musk's prediction risks deterring potential surgeons, as Hinton's wrong 2016 radiology claim probably deterred radiologists.
No horizon
Source: Elon Musk’s preposterous and possibly harmful claim about robotic surgery
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“We are now four years into the AI bubble, and Microsoft has little to show for it other than one very large and very unsustainable company that requires near-infinite resources to keep paying its cloud compute bills.”
Our reading: Four years into the AI bubble, Microsoft has little to show for its AI spending other than OpenAI as a customer.
No horizon
Qualifier: four years into the AI bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are selling their investors a lie about their AI strategies, and in a properly-regulated market would be forced to file investor disclosures that document the heavy revenue concentration of Anthropic and OpenAI’s compute spend.”
Our reading: Microsoft, Google and Amazon are lying to investors about their AI strategies and should be required to disclose their revenue concentration in Anthropic and OpenAI.
No horizon
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Amazon will have, by 2028, likely sunk over $650 billion in capital expenditures into AI, all to earn (and this assumes OpenAI and Anthropic exist and can pay) a little over $171 billion in AI revenue, with the vast majority of it contingent on two entirely venture-backed startups.”
Our reading: By 2028 Amazon will likely have sunk over $650 billion in capital expenditures into AI to earn a little over $171 billion in AI revenue, assuming OpenAI and Anthropic exist and can pay, with the vast majority of that revenue contingent on those two entirely venture-backed startups.
No horizon
Only if: assumes OpenAI and Anthropic exist and can pay
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“This means that we are likely overbuilding data center capacity at the scale of hundreds of billions of dollars.”
Our reading: Data center capacity is likely being overbuilt by hundreds of billions of dollars.
No horizon
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Almost every aspect of the AI bubble is a joke, and in the end, investors and the general public will be the punchline.”
Our reading: Almost every aspect of the AI bubble is a joke, and in the end investors and the general public will be the punchline.
No horizon
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“I want to be clear that the air is coming out of these companies, no matter how good these earnings may look.”
Our reading: The air is coming out of the hyperscalers, no matter how good their earnings may look.
No horizon
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“While you might argue this is unfair — especially as OpenAI and Anthropic are unlikely to die before the fiscal year ends — it is time to start seriously discussing what happens to hyperscaler revenues once they do so.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic are unlikely to die before Microsoft's FY2027 ends, but they will eventually.
No horizon
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“If 27% of all of 2026 and 48% of all of 2027 Google Cloud revenues are from Anthropic and OpenAI, that means that Google Cloud’s growth has or will potentially stall in the next year when you remove their compute spend.”
Our reading: If the UBS concentration estimates hold, Google Cloud's growth excluding Anthropic and OpenAI spend has stalled or may stall within the next year.
No horizon
Only if: if 27% of 2026 and 48% of 2027 Google Cloud revenue is from Anthropic and OpenAI
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Every single story you’ve read about the “incredible growth” of these cloud platforms is an embarrassing misread of three companies that are misleading investors that will more than likely be forced in the next year or two to have to restate revenues, cut remaining performance obligations, and admit that they’ve drastically overbuilt capacity.”
Our reading: Microsoft, Google and Amazon will more than likely be forced within one to two years to restate revenues, cut remaining performance obligations, and admit they drastically overbuilt capacity.
No horizon
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“AI is not working. A $10 billion or $30 billion-a-year business is not sufficient to justify either the massive capital expenditures or scars on hyperscaler balance sheets.”
Our reading: AI is not working, and a $10 billion or $30 billion-a-year business is not sufficient to justify the massive capital expenditures or the scars on hyperscaler balance sheets.
No horizon
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“I really need to be as clear as possible: the current consensus view on AI is entirely divorced from reality.”
Our reading: The current consensus view on AI is entirely divorced from reality.
No horizon
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“We need new regulations, and we need them urgently, as investors are being misled.”
Our reading: New regulations are needed urgently because investors are being misled, in context about GAAP allowing companies to inflate profits with gains on stakes such as Anthropic.
No horizon
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I want to spell this out: when you remove Anthropic and OpenAI’s compute spend, I am not confident that Google, Microsoft and Amazon have much of an AI business.”
Our reading: When Anthropic and OpenAI's compute spend is removed, the author is not confident that Google, Microsoft and Amazon have much of an AI business.
No horizon
Qualifier: when Anthropic and OpenAI's compute spend is removed
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“All of this is to say that I believe hyperscalers are on the decline.”
Our reading: Hyperscalers are in decline.
No horizon
Source: The AI Demand Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“And many what was most critical was not some innovation in Astra per se but the idea (probably from a human) to do this particular search.”
Our reading: Astra's math results may have stemmed mainly from a (probably human) idea to run a particular search rather than from innovation in Astra itself.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It should be mandatory reading for anyone thinking about how AI will affect mathematics, and strongly recommended for anyone who cares about AI’s impact on the world.”
Our reading: Terence Tao's lecture should be mandatory reading for anyone thinking about how AI will affect mathematics, and is strongly recommended for anyone who cares about AI's impact on the world.
No horizon
Scope: anyone thinking about how AI will affect mathematics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Astra is an obviously an advance to some degree, but that degree may well turn out to be merely incremental relative to other recent models.”
Our reading: Astra is an advance but may well turn out to be merely incremental relative to other recent models.
No horizon
Qualifier: relative to other recent models
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Moreover, I thought I didn’t stress it there, we all know they are facing huge economic and competitive pressures; they need a win.”
Our reading: OpenAI faces huge economic and competitive pressures and needs a win.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This does not find that OpenAI faced no economic or competitive pressure.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I am often left with the feeling that their public facing communications are better marketing than they are science.”
Our reading: Marcus is often left with the feeling that OpenAI's public-facing communications are better marketing than they are science.
No horizon
Qualifier: I am often left with the feeling
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“First, abstracting from all the words in my long analysis on OpenAI Astra yesterday, the overall point was that Astra may not be the breakthrough that OpenAI wants you to think it was.”
Our reading: OpenAI's Astra may not be the breakthrough OpenAI portrays it as.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I get that people are excited about Astra, but anyone hoping for magic is likely to be disappointed.”
Our reading: People hoping Astra will be magic are likely to be disappointed.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Will it be able to reliably extract numbers from arbitrary PDFs? Doubt it.”
Our reading: Astra will probably not be able to reliably extract numbers from arbitrary PDFs.
No horizon
Qualifier: arbitrary PDFs
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Part II. There is an important, principled reason to think that success on math is a special case which will not generalize as much people might hope.”
Our reading: There is an important, principled reason to think that AI success on math is a special case that will not generalize as much as people might hope.
No horizon
Qualifier: there is an important, principled reason to think
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Nor does this mean we just entered “the era of automated scientific discovery”.”
Our reading: Astra's results do not mean we have entered the era of automated scientific discovery.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Will it solve Sabine Hossenfelder’s desire to have AI write scripts [click the tweet for more details] for her YouTube series? Doubt it.”
Our reading: Astra will probably not be able to write usable scripts for Sabine Hossenfelder's YouTube series.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Astra, a new model that OpenAI is testing internally, is amazing.”
Our reading: Astra, the new model OpenAI is testing internally, is amazing.
No horizon
Scope: model being tested internally by OpenAI
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Astra is good at some math but it is very doubtful that math is “solved” (as a lot of people on X seemed to believe).”
Our reading: Astra is good at some math, but it is very doubtful that math has been solved.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Astra appears to be —we still haven’t seen the methodology—great at math, or at least some forms of math, but that does not mean that it will avoid hallucinations or solve the reliability problems other GenAI systems have.”
Our reading: Astra's apparent strength in some math does not imply it will avoid hallucinations or solve GenAI reliability problems.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This classification does not assess Astra's actual hallucination rate or reliability.
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Astra is not (as Musk suggested) the Singularity.”
Our reading: Astra does not represent the Singularity.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I seriously doubt that Astra will magically solve all the things that don’t work reliably in current models.”
Our reading: Astra is very unlikely to solve all the reliability problems of current models.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“It’s *very* impressive. But I see no reason whatsoever to think Astra is AGI let alone ASI.”
Our reading: Astra is very impressive, but Marcus sees no reason whatsoever to think Astra is AGI, let alone ASI.
No horizon
Qualifier: I see no reason whatsoever to think
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“If it can score even a 5/10 on my 2024 bet with Miles Brundage I will be surprised.”
Our reading: Astra is unlikely to score even 5 out of 10 on the 2024 Marcus–Brundage bet.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I doubt it will lead directly to a cure for cancer, or enormous advances in “materials research, energy production, drug discovery, Everything”, as some excitable AI “influencers” envision.”
Our reading: Astra is unlikely to lead directly to a cancer cure or enormous advances in materials, energy, or drug discovery.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The supposed leaders in AI and AI safety are clearly in over their heads.”
Our reading: The companies presented as leaders in AI and AI safety, such as Anthropic and OpenAI, are clearly out of their depth on AI and cybersecurity.
No horizon
Qualifier: in the context of Anthropic's AI incident and the OpenAI hacks
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“From a societal perspective, it’s insane that we are pouring gasoline onto the fire by racing ahead with data centers and AI rollout when we have no idea how to control it and are just sort of hoping for the best.”
Our reading: It is insane that we as a society are pouring gasoline onto the fire by racing ahead with data centers and AI rollout when we have no idea how to control AI and are just sort of hoping for the best.
No horizon
Scope: from a societal perspective
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“From a societal perspective, it’s insane that we are pouring gasoline onto the fire by racing ahead with data centers and AI rollout when we have no idea how to control it and are just sort of hoping for the best.”
Our reading: We, as a society, currently have no idea how to control AI and are just sort of hoping for the best.
No horizon
Scope: we (society collectively)
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Worse, we as a society are in over our heads.”
Our reading: Society as a whole is out of its depth in dealing with AI and cybersecurity risks.
No horizon
Qualifier: with respect to AI and cybersecurity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“For Amodei, who maybe means well, I think the issue is more one of tone deafness and self-certainty, coupled with a tendency to present arguments that frequently appear self-serving.”
Our reading: Marcus thinks Amodei, who maybe means well, has an issue that is more one of tone deafness and self-certainty, coupled with a tendency to present arguments that frequently appear self-serving.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: Dario takes it on the chin
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Given how damaging AI could ultimately be, we need people we can fully trust, and I don’t think we have that.”
Our reading: Because AI could be very damaging, AI needs leaders who can be fully trusted.
No horizon
Qualifier: given how damaging AI could ultimately be
Source: Dario takes it on the chin
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Given how damaging AI could ultimately be, we need people we can fully trust, and I don’t think we have that.”
Our reading: Given how damaging AI could ultimately be, we need people we can fully trust, and Marcus does not think we have that.
No horizon
Qualifier: given how damaging AI could ultimately be
Source: Dario takes it on the chin
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Maybe one or the other, Altman or Amodei, will regain the public’s trust, but it is far from obvious that they will.”
Our reading: It is far from obvious that either Altman or Amodei will regain the public's trust.
No horizon
Source: Dario takes it on the chin
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“All told, it would appear that most of the goodwill that Amodei accumulated in standing up to Hegseth has dissipated, much as most of the goodwill towards Altman eventually did.”
Our reading: Most of the goodwill Amodei gained by standing up to Hegseth appears to have dissipated, as most goodwill toward Altman did.
No horizon
Qualifier: it would appear
Source: Dario takes it on the chin
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“As bad as Sam Altman is, Dario Amodei isn’t all that different.”
Our reading: As bad as Sam Altman is, Dario Amodei is not all that different from him.
No horizon
Qualifier: as bad as Sam Altman is
Source: Dario takes it on the chin
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Sam, as is often the case, is simply aping Elon. (And for that matter Sam himself said it a year ago, in a self-contradictory blog that never defines the term.)”
Our reading: Sam Altman's singularity claim merely copies Elon Musk, and Altman's earlier blog on it never defined the term.
No horizon
Source: Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“But intelligence is multidimensional; we may have made lots of progress on some, and not so much on others.”
Our reading: Intelligence is multidimensional, and AI may have progressed a lot on some dimensions but much less on others.
No horizon
Source: Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“None of this means we won’t someday (most likely not this decade) reach a moment of superintelligence.”
Our reading: Superintelligence may arrive someday but most likely not before the end of this decade (2029).
No horizon
Source: Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“We can still perfectly well shut this stuff off if we want to. (It’s mainly because of greed that we don’t, stepping on the gas rather than the brake.)”
Our reading: Humans can still shut off current AI systems, and the main reason they don't is greed.
No horizon
Qualifier: if we want to
Source: Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“And if we don’t radically up our game on AI safety, it could be out of our control.”
Our reading: If AI safety is not radically improved, a future superintelligence could be out of human control.
No horizon
Only if: if we don't radically up our game on AI safety
Source: Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Another notion is that a singularity is a moment in which we can no longer peer forward into the future, but I don’t think we are there yet, either, as an entrepreneur on X pointed out, rightly ripping intp all the recent Singularity talk as nothing more than PR:”
Our reading: Marcus does not think we have yet reached a point where we can no longer peer forward into the future, and he endorses an entrepreneur on X's view that the recent Singularity talk is nothing more than PR.
No horizon
Qualifier: I don't think
Source: Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“CEOs can say whatever they like. That doesn’t make them true.”
Our reading: CEO claims that the singularity has arrived are not true just because CEOs make them.
No horizon
Source: Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Don’t take them seriously.”
Our reading: People should not take seriously the CEO claims (Altman, Hassabis, Musk, Huang) that we are in the singularity or have achieved AGI.
No horizon
Source: Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Here’s a projection from May that got 1.4 million views that now, two Chinese models and the death of tokenmaxxing later, looks like it has very little chance to be true:”
Our reading: A widely viewed AI projection from May 2026 has very little chance of coming true.
No horizon
Qualifier: after two Chinese models and the death of tokenmaxxing
Source: Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Had OpenAI ordinary guardrail classifiers been in place, it wouldn’t have happened. It doesn’t count as “uncontrollable” if you have to give the system a head and shoulders head start.”
Our reading: OpenAI's ordinary guardrail classifiers would have prevented the HuggingFace hack, so it does not show uncontrollable AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: if OpenAI's ordinary guardrail classifiers had been in place
Source: Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“The fact that we are even debating whether AI is helping these companies and that nobody can just show me the actual numbers to prove me wrong are the signs that something is very, very wrong in a way that’s unlikely to change.”
Our reading: AI's lack of demonstrable benefit to hyperscalers is unlikely to change.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“It’s unlikely that SB Energy raises all this money at once, which means that it’s going to fall into the same problem as hyperscalers are facing — that the more debt that AI data centers raise, the more expensive it becomes to raise debt for AI data centers.”
Our reading: SB Energy is unlikely to raise the funding at once and will face rising debt costs as AI data center debt grows.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s all deeply unsustainable, vile and wasteful, and only made possible in a lax regulatory environment, a captured tech and business ecosystem, and an economy dominated by growth-at-all-costs thinking.”
Our reading: The AI industry's layered arrangement is deeply unsustainable, vile and wasteful, and is only made possible by a lax regulatory environment, a captured tech and business ecosystem, and an economy dominated by growth-at-all-costs thinking.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Allow me to be subjective for a second: this deal is bullshit.”
Our reading: The NVIDIA/SB Energy/OpenAI deal is not credible.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“I also think it’s fairly likely somewhere between nothing and very little happens as a result here, even if NVIDIA offers its backstop.”
Our reading: It is fairly likely that somewhere between nothing and very little happens as a result of the SB Energy deal, even if NVIDIA offers its backstop.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if NVIDIA offers its backstop