“NVidia is down by a third, so far in 2025. (Far more than the stock market itself.)”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Nvidia's stock fell by about a third in 2025 through early April, far more than the overall market.
Assessment: Supported Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam, paragraph 4.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-scaling-is-over-the-bubble-may-be-39c944-a1
We recorded 11 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2025-04-06. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- year to date 2025 (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- NVidia is down by a third
- so far in 2025
- Far more than the stock market itself
Our interpretation
- Read 'a third' as an approximate description of the share-price decline, consistent with the supplied normalized proposition.
- Use conventional calendar-year-to-date price performance, measured from the preceding year-end close through April 4, the last trading close before the Sunday post.
- Use the S&P 500 price index as an ordinary broad US market comparator.
- This is a traded-security price-return claim, rather than a claim about Nvidia's corporate finances; metric_scope is therefore null.
Counts as supported if: Nvidia's year-to-date share-price decline is approximately one third and materially exceeds the broad market's decline over the same interval.
Counts as contradicted if: Nvidia's decline is materially smaller than approximately one third, or does not substantially exceed the broad market decline.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Supported
The dated evidence matches what the claim committed to, under the criteria frozen before grading.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Through April 4, Nvidia was down roughly 30%, compared with 13.7% for the S&P 500. That supports the ordinary approximate reading of 'a third' and clearly supports the market comparison. The wording slightly overstates the reported decline if read precisely.
Limitations
- The supported result depends on accepting approximate language: 30% is not exactly one third.
- The S&P 500 is an evaluator-selected benchmark.
- The Nvidia figure comes from financial reporting rather than a directly retrieved exchange price series.
Evidence (2 items)
Supports the claim: TheStreet, syndicated by Yahoo Finance,
down roughly 30% year-to-date.
Why it matters here: The reported decline is close to one third, though it is not literally 33.33%. Financial reporting is used because the historical-price filing could not be read.
- Publisher
- TheStreet, syndicated by Yahoo Finance
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Supports the claim: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, using Bloomberg market data,
lost 13.7%
Why it matters here: The matching broad-market decline was substantially smaller. Nvidia's approximately 30% decline was about 2.2 times as large.
- Publisher
- Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, using Bloomberg market data
- Kind of source
- Secondary summary
- Arithmetic
- 30 / 13.7 = approximately 2.19; 30 - 13.7 = approximately 16.3 percentage points (inputs: e1: Nvidia year-to-date decline approximately 30%; e2: S&P 500 year-to-date decline 13.7%; Ratio rounded to one decimal place in the explanation; precision limited by the approximate Nvidia figure.)
- Describes events of
- Public from
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam
NVidia is down by a third, so far in 2025. (Far more than the stock market itself.)
- Where
- paragraph 4
- Published
- 2025-04-06
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-scaling-is-over-the-bubble-may-be-39c944-a1: Current. Outcome: Supported. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-scaling-is-over-the-bubble-may-be-39c944-a1.