Changes, page 16 of 55

Every substantive change to the register, newest first. Speaker events record what the people covered said or changed. Site events record what this site published, corrected, flagged, or withdrew. The two never share a label.

Substantive changes (10984)

Page 16 of 55: changes 3001 to 3200 of 10984, newest first. Dates are when the change was recorded.

2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-credit-crunch-0e40e4
The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: SB Energy's August 17 announcement says planned capacity will come online in phases beginning in 2028 and that NVIDIA will invest $1.5 billion in SB Energy [e1]..
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-credit-crunch-04e808
e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
There is not currently enough AI demand for hyperscalers to break even on their 2026 and 2027 capex plans.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-01fbb9-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-costs-d37b66
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Inference costs are rising for customers and appear high for Anthropic as well.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-costs-bccdf4-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Because Anthropic's costs seem to rise with its revenue, its subscription and API pricing seems unprofitable and must increase dramatically for the company ever to become sustainable; by his calculations a 100% increase might work.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-costs-b8368f-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-costs-99a95f
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic spent $1.35 billion on AWS in 2024 and $2.66 billion through September 2025.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-costs-8d0dde-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Assuming $600 million in revenue, Anthropic spent about 226% of its 2024 revenue on AWS.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-costs-330998-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Based on what he has been party to, the more successful Anthropic becomes, the more its services cost.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-costs-29589b-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-costs-267724
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-core-incompetency-ed4702
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
CoreWeave appears built for collapse, with over 60% of its revenue coming from Microsoft.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-core-incompetency-ea81c8-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-core-incompetency-dfcb20
the horizon on 2026-10-28 is open_horizon, not elapsed
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-core-incompetency-def84b
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
GPU depreciation will eventually become a problem for compute sellers whose loans are collateralized by GPUs.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-core-incompetency-c2504a-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-core-incompetency-bee2e5
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Companies providing AI compute, including hyperscalers, make not very much money at all from it.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-core-incompetency-b9e949-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
CoreWeave is losing hundreds of millions of dollars selling AI compute.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-core-incompetency-b8e5ab-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The generative AI industry has yet to show meaningful product-market fit, yet CoreWeave's future requires it to grow enormously.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-core-incompetency-aeca15-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-core-incompetency-9c73e0
The anthropic review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-core-incompetency-97632e
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
CoreWeave lost $863 million in 2024 despite $1.9 billion in revenue, and its entire future rides on "explosive growth" that may not materialize and that, even if it does, would require CoreWeave to spend unfathomable amounts on capex.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-core-incompetency-4ca6a8-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-core-incompetency-2a1a36
"likely" is hedged or probabilistic; one outcome does not score it; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Bitcoin mining infrastructure cannot easily be repurposed for AI; conversion is effectively starting from scratch.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-core-incompetency-290d66-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Cloud GPU compute is highly commoditized, differentiated mainly by price, availability and hardware.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-core-incompetency-220a23-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
In 2024 CoreWeave spent about $1.43 for every $1 of revenue.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-core-incompetency-172b49-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Directly or by proxy, NVIDIA's customer base is effectively Anthropic and OpenAI.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-e03e78-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
On the low end, Anthropic and OpenAI account for over $200 billion of expected 2027 revenue for Microsoft, Google and Amazon, which depends on the labs raising venture capital or debt, which depends on their continued growth, which depends on growing AI spend from a small subset of customers, many of whom are VC-funded.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-d1a2c5-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
No one else will buy the compute committed to by OpenAI and Anthropic, because the companies meant to buy it can't afford it and nobody else is buying compute at even close to that scale.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-cb8236-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Outside of unprofitable AI startups, the vast majority of enterprises spending money on AI are tech companies rather than other industries.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-ca6172-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-bf2035
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The AI bubble will unravel over the next few months and years, with concentration risk across nearly every part of the industry.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-ba1473-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-b6c949
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-b46af5
The anthropic review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
At most four of the eight buildings at the Stargate Abilene campus are functional.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-b2b3cc-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-b1f901
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-b1f3c4
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI and Anthropic account for over 70% of AI revenues for Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, SpaceX, Cerebras and Lambda.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-af327b-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-ab7c0c
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-a6d73c
The openai review doubts the attribution.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-9dc07e
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
At least $200 billion of OpenAI and Anthropic compute costs will come due in 2027.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-999240-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-85b432
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Neither Broadcom nor NVIDIA will go bankrupt as a result of the AI bubble bursting, but Broadcom's future revenues, estimated at $230 billion in FY2028, now depend on hyperscaler purchases justified by Anthropic and OpenAI and on the labs themselves, creating greater underlying exposure.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-828f5b-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-76f0ac
a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-712729
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-64b260
The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The following, firmer prediction of an AI unwind is assessed separately..
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Compute commitment payments will begin in earnest in 2027 and expand dramatically every year after, though Zitron doubts 'we will make it that far'.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-5afa53-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
In virtually every case Zitron has found, the AI startup subsidizes its customers' AI use, letting them burn far more than their monthly subscription in tokens, while the startup pays full or slightly-discounted token prices.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-424451-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-422ba6
The anthropic review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-40ab51
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
NVIDIA's revenues depend on hyperscalers continuing to be paid by OpenAI and Anthropic, the only companies that could justify their trillion-plus capex.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-3e0451-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic and OpenAI's compute commitments now represent over $1.3 trillion in revenue for hyperscalers and neoclouds such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, SpaceX, Hut8, SB Energy, Oracle, Cerebras, Nscale and Lambda.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-37ca70-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI and Anthropic depend financially on VC-backed AI startup customers to survive.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-36e523-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-2b37ab
e1 measures something else (metric Annual revenue is not 2025 operating expenses and revenue; Q2 2026 operating margin); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-29eaad
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
NVIDIA's GPUs are so expensive that nobody, including the largest and richest companies except Microsoft, can afford to keep buying them and building data centers without taking on near-infinite debt, which dramatically reduces the pool of potential customers.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-2052af-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-1bf03f
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Per Ramp data, 80% of OpenAI and Anthropic's enterprise revenues come from 1% of their customers, a share that hasn't improved over the last three years.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-13aad9-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Very few companies outside tech and AI are willing to pay much for AI, and there is no clear way to reverse this.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-12bee1-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic has the money to pay for their obligations, and they have only been able to keep up because signing contracts costs little.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-0eff38-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-concentration-risk-09b1f8
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/supported.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic and OpenAI's largest customers cannot afford to pay them, yet the labs desperately need them to keep paying more every quarter, which means every single AI startup will need to raise more and more money to do so.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-concentration-risk-0768b9-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-cargo-culture-f64bd7
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-cargo-culture-bdf87f
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Big tech will spend $765 billion in 2026, more than ten times Amazon's combined capex during the AWS build-out.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-cargo-culture-97c29e-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-cargo-culture-9768fd
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-cargo-culture-655f36
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-cargo-culture-47a19e
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-cargo-culture-3de35a
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Assuming their latest rounds fully close, OpenAI and Anthropic have raised close to $300 billion in two years.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-cargo-culture-35aa32-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-cargo-culture-35aa32-2
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Meta's expensive AI researcher hiring produced only a mid-tier AI model and an AI app that nobody uses.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-cargo-culture-32c238-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
61% of venture capital funding went to AI in 2025.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-cargo-culture-253e88-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI and Anthropic have had everything paid for them by hyperscalers or venture capitalists and are fundamentally incapable of operating without infinite resources.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-cargo-culture-236e2a-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Amazon, Google, and Meta had to buy all those GPUs because Microsoft bought a lot of GPUs.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-cargo-culture-17256d-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-cargo-culture-0b5e22
e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-burst-damage-fdebc9
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-burst-damage-e302e3
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
We are starting to see a shift, more accurately a centralization, in the point of failure for AI: away from a large, disparate group of startups and investors and onto a few companies, namely Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Facebook and, to a much lesser extent, Apple.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-e25b49-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-burst-damage-e1d567
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading; e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Google and Microsoft, not venture capital, are what keep generative AI going; if either slows investment, the boom is over.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-c8fdfa-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI and Anthropic depend on billions in big tech cloud credits to run their very expensive models.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-bddb02-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI is a dead-end technology that has peaked, costs too much to sustain, and will not deliver the promises of AI.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-b5948c-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-burst-damage-a3a2ba
the horizon on 2026-10-28 is elapsed, not open_horizon
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-burst-damage-984842
The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-burst-damage-87fb65
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-burst-damage-857df1
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-burst-damage-800582
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI gets access to the latest hardware only as fast as Microsoft allows.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-7c91d3-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI will not be able to go public, so its investors have no real path to liquidity.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-79f302-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI doesn't actually act as a 'super smart friend that knows everything about me' or automate away drudgery such as spreadsheets and documents.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-72668f-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
If OpenAI or Anthropic raise prices, that will signal their unit economics no longer work for their investors.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-6e92f4-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
By a rough estimate, about $200 billion has been spent on generative AI, producing a tool whose outputs are not as good as human work.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-684b06-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI or Anthropic shutting down is very unlikely given their corporate structure; if they 'collapse', it will be more like the Character.ai deal, where a big tech firm absorbs them in an attempt to hide the mess.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-5e422e-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
If Anthropic or OpenAI raises money, the bubble will last another quarter, but not forever.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-589fa9-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-burst-damage-584ac7
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-burst-damage-49b849
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Investors are getting impatient with the AI boom and with the big tech companies funding it.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-22ea2f-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
On his estimates, OpenAI's search product would need about $300 per user to match Google's search margins.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-burst-damage-21d816-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-burst-damage-1bc0a0
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
If AI demand doesn't arrive, markets will eventually sour on Microsoft, Amazon and Google and demand real revenue for their AI infrastructure bets.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-ffe46f-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-bubble-trouble-f7cd4a
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Licensing publisher content does not solve AI's data shortage because it does not increase the amount of content created.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-eb6701-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Models like ChatGPT and Claude depend on training data and their existence is impeding the creation of new human data they need.
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative video models like OpenAI's Sora are dead on arrival, because they require massive amounts of compute and significantly more training data, which is complex, scarce, and carries massive legal implications.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-cb9225-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Today's models are rife with hallucinations that make integrating them actively dangerous for many businesses, and the only way to reduce hallucinations is to give models more compute power to process and analyze data, which is a dwindling resource that AI is actively helping to destroy.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-bac8b1-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
If businesses don't adopt AI at scale at the core of their operations, the revenue is not there to sustain the hype, and once the market turns it will turn hard, demanding efficiency and cutbacks that will lead to tens of thousands of job cuts.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-ac24ce-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-bubble-trouble-8f75fb
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-bubble-trouble-7cdd8d
The anthropic review does not accept e7 as supports.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Smaller models trained on limited synthetic datasets do not fix the overall problem that AI is running out of data to feed models, and that in many cases the solution is to use the broken tool to make more data.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-7c4049-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
A high-revenue, negative-profit industry is a hallmark of a bubble, and glossy stories about OpenAI's and Anthropic's multi-billion-dollar revenues never seem to discuss profits, only endless growth.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-6ea2a4-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI will not have an iPhone-style breakthrough moment.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-6ade4f-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Nvidia is likely to be the canary in the coal mine for the AI industry, and if AI fails to drive meaningful profits for both customers and providers, orders for Nvidia chips will dramatically slow.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-6a4428-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-bubble-trouble-629c9c
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-bubble-trouble-583613
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-bubble-trouble-40c48a
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-bubble-trouble-3d74a3
hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI cannot progress beyond its current deeply unreliable state without more high-quality data than currently exists.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-3b68e1-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
According to Zitron's source, Google and Amazon, through their investments in Anthropic, have guaranteed $750 million a year (Google Cloud) and $800 million a year (AWS) in revenue by mandating that Anthropic use their services to power Claude.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-25afb1-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI has not proven it can do anything substantially different besides helping CEOs raise money and make headlines.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-bubble-trouble-04a2d8-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-bubble-trouble-026137
The anthropic review does not accept e3 as contradicts.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI does not have a business model, is not a tool with value remotely commensurate with its costs, and is not getting cheaper for providers or customers.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-fab3f5-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-brokenomics-f4dbb9
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic negotiated discounted compute for the first two months of its SpaceX deal as a way of pretending to be profitable for a single quarter, and any price cut or even customer churn will immediately put its finances deep in the red.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-ed0db6-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-brokenomics-e30fbd
The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI and Anthropic cannot reverse the trend of high costs and price-sensitive customers.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-db8e31-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Nobody adopting AI has been able to show any return on investment despite its massive costs.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-d359b5-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Subsidized subscriptions shielded users from costs and trained them to use AI without regard to efficiency, causing problems once real billing started.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-d0fa4f-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-brokenomics-cee13d
The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI is not measurably improving except on AI-specific benchmarks and only makes money through subsidies, FOMO and executive ignorance.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-c83df3-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
A $200/month Anthropic subscription allows $8,000 of token usage and a $200/month ChatGPT subscription allows $14,000.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-c25b49-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
If AI labs stop training, their models will eventually drift into obscurity.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-a99722-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
If OpenAI and Anthropic make the planned token price cuts, they would be deadly to the AI industry.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-a3b852-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
It is not yet proven whether running cheaper open-source models is profitable, or even sustainable, for any provider, and there is no tangible proof that they can compete at scale with Anthropic's or OpenAI's more-complex LLMs.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-9c481e-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Even assuming a 75% token gross margin, a subscriber using 25% of their rate limit yields at best a -25% gross margin.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-97b75f-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI's and Anthropic's price cuts are caused by customer unwillingness to pay current prices, not efficiency gains.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-8d8db1-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-brokenomics-7c4028
The anthropic review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic will stumble and crumble in the future.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-69372b-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The majority of AI users will refuse to pay the actual cost of AI.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-652322-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-brokenomics-612117
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic has not created recursive self-improvement, nor has it done much more than create a very large language model that scores higher on benchmarks built for large language models, wrapped in mysticism and panic-hype meant to scare organizations into paying to use it.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-60041f-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The AI industry is not getting cheaper, more data centers will not make OpenAI or Anthropic profitable or make customers more willing to pay AI's actual cost, and more venture capital funding will not make Anthropic or OpenAI real businesses.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-5ffd9d-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-brokenomics-5d7c12
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI requires endless pre-training, post-training and script-based workarounds to do tasks with mathematically guaranteed hallucinations that burn more tokens, raising costs on customers who are already in mutiny less than a quarter into paying an already-unprofitable price.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-5636f9-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI's and Anthropic's business models do not work.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-2c8942-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Stopping model training would not make OpenAI and Anthropic profitable; inference is not a money-printer.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-2906d8-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
AI labs intentionally obscured the costs of subscriptions and heavily subsidized users' compute, and now that this has changed, everything has begun to fall apart.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-brokenomics-1d95f4-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-brokenomics-04dc59
The anthropic review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
As of mid-2023, AI companies with no revenue can raise tens of millions of dollars (Character.ai raised $150 million) because they look like what's hot, with no thought given to whether they are real businesses.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-broken-things-e158d4-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Pre-revenue AI startups that raise large funding rounds are not real companies. They have no chance of becoming functional businesses, and VCs hope to sell them on to other companies or to retail investors.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-broken-things-66fa0c-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-artificial-labor-d43a88
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The WGA strike happened in part because entertainment executives clearly want to use AI to write content.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-artificial-labor-8b3939-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
With AI customer service, person-to-person interactions will become increasingly rare, distancing companies from responsibility to customers.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-artificial-labor-408e8c-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
AI will let studios cut writers' rooms down to one person and one machine, which will shrink the WGA and eventually weaken and destroy it.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-artificial-labor-175f34-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
At some point search portals will give AI-generated answers from their data instead of linking users to content made by people.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-f35b1a-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-e86f18
The anthropic review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-cff609
The final-text check failed: citations_correct.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Platform algorithms are easily tricked, and the tools used to trick them, including generative AI, are becoming easier to use and scale.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-ce2883-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Generative AI is a perfect tool for soullessly churning out content to match a set of instructions such as an algorithm's, and while an algorithm can theoretically be tuned to evaluate content as human, scaled content can likewise be tweaked to seem more human.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-c58359-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude depend on a constant flow of training data to improve their models, to the point that it is effectively impossible for them to operate without violating copyright.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-ba4560-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-b874b2
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
As more internet content is made with generative AI, models will be trained more and more on AI-generated content and become increasingly inbred.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-a4f7ec-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
If any force controls OpenAI's training data or makes it pay for that data, OpenAI will be kneecapped and forced to find an ethical way to build models.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-a44d07-2-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-7b2983
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful; overclaims: If platforms use AI to become ISP-like gateways, they will rot out the rest of the internet and take traffic away from media and social networks..
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
The author severely doubts that anything meaningfully changes after Google's upcoming core update, which Google claims will promote content for people rather than content made to rank in search engines.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-736600-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Low-quality content will lead companies like Google to use generative AI to produce answers that sift through it.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-69141e-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
As more sites come to depend on generative AI, the web will become more dependent on, and more dictated by, automated systems.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-51b285-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-42d100
a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Many models' responses sound alike because they depend heavily on the same training data.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-3b4ed8-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-348450
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Because platforms reward scale and volume over quality, generative AI rewards people who find the spammiest ways to manipulate algorithms.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-1ca258-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
A Habsburg AI, meaning a system heavily trained on the outputs of other generative AIs, will become increasingly generic and empty, normalized into anodyne business-speak, as its models are trained on increasingly identical content.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-are-we-watching-the-internet-die-1ae41a-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Starting in July 2026, Anthropic will pay SpaceX $1.25 billion a month ($15 billion a year) for compute, on top of its other compute deals.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-anthropics-profitability-swindle-fb2409-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
It is very unlikely Anthropic made running its services profitable in the past six months.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-anthropics-profitability-swindle-d2d769-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
AI labs' costs rise linearly with revenue and will keep doing so indefinitely.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-anthropics-profitability-swindle-b1b6ad-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-anthropics-profitability-swindle-afd48d
e1 measures something else (metric Projected operating profit excluding stock-based compensation is not Reported operating profit and underlying inference profitability); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-anthropics-profitability-swindle-a57c10
e1 measures something else (metric Contractual SpaceX compute fees during ramp-up is not SpaceX compute fees during the May–June ramp-up); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-anthropics-profitability-swindle-a42d63
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-anthropics-profitability-swindle-7fc04b
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-anthropics-profitability-swindle-4ce78f
The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic's reported 2025 revenue can't be reconciled with its CFO's sworn statement of revenues exceeding $5 billion to date.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-anthropics-profitability-swindle-1f6fd1-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic's implied growth is hard to believe, and its earlier ARR figures don't match its leaked charts, which casts doubt on all of its numbers.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-anthropics-profitability-swindle-0159ba-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Essentially all AI compute capacity estimates are guesses.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-faa536-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Anthropic's and OpenAI's growth depends on AI startups being able to spend increasing amounts on tokens every month, without fail, for what appears to be the rest of time.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-f8012e-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
In the Canopy Wave B300 contract, depreciation of about $1.54 per GPU-hour means the provider loses nearly half its revenue over the first six years of what is only a five-year contract.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-e9c89c-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Because AI startups have very small revenues even with discounted tokens, every AI startup runs at a loss, which forces them to raise massive amounts of capital every few months.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-db120f-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-annualized-enron-rate-d78987
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
With every model release, Anthropic and OpenAI get a massive bump of new revenues funded by AI startups that let users burn tokens without restraint.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-cbdd9b-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
If AI startups can no longer keep raising money, large chunks of OpenAI's and Anthropic's revenues will disappear.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-b1bc39-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
There is no firm understanding of how much AI compute exists, and Microsoft is actively misleading the public about capacity coming online.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-a1faa9-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Every AI startup is effectively an extraction mechanism for OpenAI and Anthropic, reselling their tokens at a massive discount because users are unwilling to pay the actual cost of using LLMs.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-9c57e6-a1.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Zitron has repeatedly found companies paying far less than the supposed going rate of compute.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-90a9d9-a2.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-annualized-enron-rate-7f4785
The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful; overclaims: the 1% of customers behind most OpenAI and Anthropic revenue.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
80% of Anthropic's and OpenAI's revenues come from 1% of their customers, the vast majority of which are AI startups that spend 300% to 1000% of their revenue on AI tokens.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-788064-a1.
2026-10-29
HeldBy this siteEd Zitron
Held record wyea-annualized-enron-rate-768988
The openai review reads the claim differently.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Combined H1 2026 revenue of Anthropic and OpenAI was $19.1 billion short of Anthropic's May 2026 $48 billion run rate.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-5ae045-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
Discounted compute and adjusted profits do not solve the problem that Anthropic and OpenAI have $1.3 trillion in compute commitments, at least $413 billion uncancellable.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-4a6e6b-a2.
2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron
OpenAI projects actual 2026 revenue of roughly $30 billion.
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
Assessment wyea-annualized-enron-rate-4433ba-a1.