Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Changes, page 18 of 55

Every substantive change to the register, newest first. Speaker events record what the people covered said or changed. Site events record what this site published, corrected, flagged, or withdrew. The two never share a label.

Substantive changes (10984)

Page 18 of 55: changes 3401 to 3600 of 10984, newest first. Dates are when the change was recorded.

  1. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-f6a29d

    e1 is dated 2026, which is not inside the period described (2025-12-01 to 2026-08-31); it can only be context

  2. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-d5a07e

    The final-text check failed: excerpt_matches.

  3. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-c7e9c3

    The anthropic review reads the claim differently.

  4. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-9b8ba5

    The anthropic review reads the claim differently.

  5. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-84d36e

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.

  6. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    For years the AI industry has engaged in vague safety theater while selling harmful, unreliable software.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-7aa4d6-a1.

  7. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-62f621

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  8. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Altman's early-2023 warning that AI could be used for offensive cyber-attacks proved right, but only because Altman made sure it was the case.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-57d845-a1.

  9. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-572ba3

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  10. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-508f9e

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.

  11. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The AI involved in the Hugging Face attack did not go rogue; it solved the task it was given.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-312aaf-a2.

  12. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-28c75d

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  13. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-1bb6b0

    The final-text check failed: conditions_shown, citations_correct.

  14. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    AI labs' 'AI safety' talk, including Amodei's, never addresses actual harms of the products they build today.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-1bb409-a1.

  15. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Hype around OpenAI and Anthropic has created massive concentration risk in world debt markets, and an economic downturn is coming.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands-15a3b8-a1.

  16. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Systemic risk from private credit financing of AI infrastructure is building.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-f33804-a2.

  17. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-ef6e16

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  18. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-e48b5b

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  19. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Generative AI businesses do not have the same economics or the same total addressable markets as earlier cash-burning companies such as Uber.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-d44a7c-a1.

  20. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-c701ba

    The openai review reads the claim differently.

  21. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    When the AI bubble pops, VC funding will dry up and pension funds will take a hit that affects how much people have to spend in retirement, and it will be grim.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-c698eb-a2.

  22. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Three years in, there is no profitable generative AI company other than training-data firms and Nvidia.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-b85ba7-a1.

  23. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The US government will not give generative AI companies money forever.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-abcafb-a1.

  24. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-896d82

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  25. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-884dae

    The anthropic review reads the claim differently.

  26. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-82a167

    the conclusive event e1 is not outcome evidence in the packet

  27. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-81a0dd

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  28. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-6bc0cc

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  29. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-6b88f9

    a observation claim cannot be assessed on the forecast_outcome axis; the horizon on 2026-10-28 is open_horizon, not elapsed

  30. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-5d0403

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  31. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    If Microsoft's capex dips, it will directly hurt the US economy and stock market.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-5a530f-a1.

  32. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    He believes Anthropic's new weekly limits on Claude Code accounts will create some of the most gnarly churn in SaaS history.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-5400fd-a1.

  33. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-53dba6

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  34. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-4e80eb

    "unlikely" is hedged or probabilistic; one outcome does not score it; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  35. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Generative AI startups have had no exits and no IPOs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-4dd359-a2.

  36. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-4c9fb8

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  37. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-4464db

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  38. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Most AI capex comes from big tech, which is a major systemic weakness in the US economy.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-38273f-a1.

  39. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    He thinks the future of LLMs will be client-side on egregiously expensive personal setups for enthusiasts and in a handful of niche enterprise roles.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-365cd7-a2.

  40. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    LLMs don't scale profitably and their functionality doesn't justify their running costs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-1d3658-a1.

  41. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-1908a9

    The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/open_horizon/unresolved, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/unresolved.

  42. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Reduced AI capex will cut NVIDIA GPU spending, hit the US stock market, and the AI bubble's popping will damage the wider economy like the dot-com bust.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-177d7a-a3.

  43. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-0962f1

    The anthropic review abstained.

  44. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    OpenAI is not following standard methods for calculating annualized revenue.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-06cd69-a1.

  45. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    AI capex will eventually slow, reducing NVIDIA GPU purchases and slowing US economic growth.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-064b60-a1.

  46. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-is-a-money-trap-027a73

    e2 measures something else (period 2026-04..2026-04 is not ?..?); it can only be context unless it is derived with stated inputs

  47. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-fe4384

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  48. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Borrowing costs for AI data centers are skyrocketing, making their economics increasingly problematic.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-f3e4c9-a2.

  49. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-e23af3

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  50. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-dbbd2a

    a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis

  51. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-c8bc6c

    The final-text check failed: excerpt_matches, citations_correct.

  52. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Blackstone has staked its entire future on AI working out.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-c854ec-a2.

  53. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    With endless delays and hundreds of billions in chips sitting in storage, AI data centers have become a nightmare for fixed-income investors.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-c4e60e-a2.

  54. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    OpenAI and Anthropic are very unprofitable and unstable, with 80% of revenue from companies that can't afford to pay them.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-bc80cc-a1.

  55. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are held up by childish excitement about AI growth that will eventually turn to existential fear.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-ae7241-a2.

  56. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-92e995

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.

  57. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-90fed5

    The final-text check failed: excerpt_matches.

  58. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-229895

    The openai review reads the claim differently.

  59. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    If Anthropic IPOs at $1.5 trillion, it would be disastrous for OpenAI, which is trying to raise $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-10f0fa-a2.

  60. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The hypotheticals of the AI industry have created one of the largest equities bubbles in modern history, concentrated in a handful of AI-trade names.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-had-better-work-out-01b9f3-a2.

  61. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-fde698

    The openai review reads the claim differently.

  62. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-f9b0cc

    The openai review reads the claim differently.

  63. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    LLMs cannot be trusted to run anything on their own.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-f1ac56-a2.

  64. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Once the AI bubble bursts, AI startups will not get funded, AI token budgets will not be approved, and AI data centers will not be able to raise debt.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-e922d5-a2.

  65. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-e03c64

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  66. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-ca4bb0

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  67. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-bd1ab7

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  68. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-a6f44b

    a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis

  69. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-93d7c4

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  70. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-90a8cc

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  71. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Nobody can measure AI's return on investment because it does not have one.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-682c54-a1.

  72. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-6109ad

    a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis

  73. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-4d643b

    The anthropic review does not accept e1 as contradicts.

  74. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-486201

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  75. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-3cdf3f

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  76. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-218910

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  77. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    In five years, a rack of Vera Rubin or Blackwell GPUs will cost as much to run as it does today, and unfinished data centers will cost as much to complete and power.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-1359f4-a1.

  78. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-ai-doesnt-have-roi-0bacd7

    a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis

  79. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-why-openai-may-well-be-completely-3faa3a

    e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope

  80. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Six months after his January 2024 warnings, long-term adoption (as opposed to mere experimentation) has been modest.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-why-openai-may-well-be-completely-234e80-a1.

  81. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-5 had not been released as of July 2024.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-why-openai-may-well-be-completely-234e80-3-a1.

  82. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    There is currently almost no regulation around AI, or around the billions of robots Musk aspires to build.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-b9fc72-a2.

  83. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-9b6c5b

    The anthropic review reads the claim differently.

  84. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Grok is a long way from AGI and hardly smart enough to map out an effective world domination.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-7db7c3-a2.

  85. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-why-my-pdoom-has-risen-dramatically-19e05a

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.

  86. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-why-do-large-language-models-hallucinate-d33a88

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  87. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLMs do not operate like people and never fact check; they essentially only mimic what people say in contexts.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-why-do-large-language-models-hallucinate-65b7e1-a1.

  88. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Because LLMs statistically mimic human language, they often fool people into thinking they operate like people.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-why-do-large-language-models-hallucinate-30dec2-a1.

  89. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The hallucination problem is not going away; OpenAI's o3 hallucinates more than some of its predecessors.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-why-do-large-language-models-hallucinate-17bf2e-a1.

  90. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLM technology, having cost about half a trillion dollars, cannot reliably check its output against Wikipedia or a supplied article.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-why-do-large-language-models-hallucinate-14b4ca-a1.

  91. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Pure LLMs are inevitably stuck in the past of their training and deeply limited in inherent abilities to reason, search the web, and think critically.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-why-chatgpt-cant-be-trusted-with-e72c97-a2.

  92. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-why-chatgpt-cant-be-trusted-with-de74ce

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  93. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-why-chatgpt-cant-be-trusted-with-d36a06

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  94. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-why-chatgpt-cant-be-trusted-with-4897d2

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  95. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-why-chatgpt-cant-be-trusted-with-2cec0d

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: CNN was reporting Trump's capture announcement hours before the morning testing..

  96. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-why-chatgpt-cant-be-trusted-with-2a998a

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  97. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If SB-1047 does not pass, the view will be that Big Tech always wins, nobody will bother, and future state and federal efforts will suffer.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-why-californias-ai-safety-bill-should-5cdc3d-a1.

  98. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-why-californias-ai-safety-bill-should-4b7a21

    The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.

  99. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-why-californias-ai-safety-bill-should-46b9aa

    The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved.

  100. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-4 will be a pastiche generator useful for brainstorming and drafts but not trustworthy general intelligence.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-eff808-a2.

  101. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Alignment will remain a critical unsolved problem with GPT-4.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-a9525d-a1.

  102. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-9e60b0

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  103. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-20fe8b

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  104. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-075246

    The openai review reads the claim differently.

  105. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-05bab7

    The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.

  106. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI made a Scarlett Johansson-like voice for GPT-4o after she told them not to, showing dismissiveness toward artist consent.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-should-we-learn-from-openais-e20e39-a1.

  107. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI has trained on a massive amount of copyrighted material without consent and often without compensation.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-should-we-learn-from-openais-d7e7c0-a1.

  108. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Lately Sam Altman and OpenAI have made many mistakes and broken many promises.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-should-we-learn-from-openais-cdf556-a1.

  109. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Altman's 2016 promise that outsiders would play an important role in OpenAI governance has not been kept.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-should-we-learn-from-openais-c7adde-a1.

  110. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-what-should-we-learn-from-openais-9e54b5

    e4 is dated 2024-05, which is not inside the period described (2023-11-01 to 2024-05-26); it can only be context; e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e4 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope

  111. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI traded on being 'open' while knowing since May 2016 that the name was misleading.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-should-we-learn-from-openais-62c2b4-a1.

  112. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-what-should-we-learn-from-openais-1e3db1

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  113. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Regulatory capture is the default outcome in AI regulation.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-should-we-learn-from-openais-0e0898-a1.

  114. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    ChatGPT still struggles with basic facts of life in image generation.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy-c1e720-a2.

  115. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Despite the hype, Nano Banana is not much better than ChatGPT-5 at drawing part-whole structures such as bicycles.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy-6f1bf0-a1.

  116. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Even the latest image generation models, Nano Banana among them, still struggle with compositionality.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy-6b861f-a1.

  117. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus got Nano Banana to fail on his very first attempt.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy-0d6610-a1.

  118. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Over the last few years, graphics in image generation systems have gotten better and better, while world models and comprehension have improved less.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-what-scaling-does-and-doesnt-buy-0c6ad1-a1.

  119. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Almost nothing has been done through laws or technology to blunt the impact of AI-generated misinformation.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-we-cant-trust-the-fox-to-guard-the-d087bb-a1.

  120. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-we-cant-trust-the-fox-to-guard-the-afa332

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  121. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-we-cant-trust-the-fox-to-guard-the-a8a49d

    a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis

  122. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The US was not going to get the AI legislation it needed.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-we-cant-trust-the-fox-to-guard-the-8a395b-a2.

  123. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Despite hype about exponential improvement, AI still lacks the reliable deep-language-understanding image generation Google promised in 2022.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-image-generation-still-crazy-after-d11e1d-a1.

  124. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Embedding LLM technology in robots would be even more risky than using it in home assistants.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-how-come-smart-assistants-have-virtually-34cc58-a1.

  125. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-has-the-bailout-of-generative-ai-b801dd

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/contradicted.

  126. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-has-the-bailout-of-generative-ai-5a41e1

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  127. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Sooner or later, powerful people are going to use LLMs to shape people's ideas.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-has-grok-lost-its-mind-and-mind-melded-823a8e-a1.

  128. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    In May 2025 Grok repeatedly brought up 'white genocide' in South Africa even in replies where it was completely irrelevant.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-has-grok-lost-its-mind-and-mind-melded-1b29b0-a1.

  129. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-e4e7f3

    The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: Earlier research, published July 8, 2024, explains that extensive testing can miss weaknesses and that testing and red-teaming do not provide rigorous, quantifiable safety guarantees [e6]..

  130. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The AI acceleration seen from 2019-2023 will not slow down forever, even if it slows down for five years as Marcus has often speculated.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-637742-a2.

  131. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-342d98

    e1 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-12-06); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-12-06); it can only be context; e3 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-12-06); it can only be context; e4 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-12-06); it can only be context

  132. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-hard-forked-casey-newtons-distorted-2dfa27

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  133. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Large language models still make silly errors, and problems of abstraction are widespread in them.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-happy-groundhog-day-the-ai-edition-d7f85a-a2.

  134. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The current revival of neural networks has more staying power than the earlier one, which collapsed.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-happy-groundhog-day-the-ai-edition-d1ccc9-a1.

  135. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Many concerns raised about neural networks 30 years ago still hold true.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-happy-groundhog-day-the-ai-edition-889f4f-a2.

  136. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Putting LLMs into production is hard and most deployment work to date has been preliminary.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-happy-1st-birthday-gpt-4-fe0f67-a1.

  137. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Over the past year there has been substantial progress in finding applications for and deploying GPT-4 class models.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-happy-1st-birthday-gpt-4-f00f06-a1.

  138. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The profitability of LLM businesses remains uncertain.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-happy-1st-birthday-gpt-4-d0e79a-a2.

  139. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-happy-1st-birthday-gpt-4-761602

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  140. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-happy-1st-birthday-gpt-4-245405

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  141. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-groupthink-versus-tulips-what-will-4e7b11

    e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e2 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope; e3 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope

  142. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-grok-3-hot-take-c726c8

    The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: The cited public record supports the historical conclusion that pure pretraining scaling had not demonstrated broadly human-level general intelligence by February 18, 2025 [e1, e2, e3, e4]. | The January 2025 International AI Safety Report documents uneven capabilities, difficulty with novel scenarios and failures on simple reasoning tasks [e1]. | Their qualified interpretation does not establish the broad human-level standard used here, but shows why 'clearly' is stronger than the consensus warrants..

  143. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Grok 3, as demoed, was not AGI, contrary to a Musk fan's prediction.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-grok-3-hot-take-5247eb-a1.

  144. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI's competitive moat keeps shrinking.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-grok-3-hot-take-31577b-a1.

  145. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Because OpenAI's moat keeps shrinking, price wars among AI model providers will continue.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-grok-3-hot-take-31577b-2-a1.

  146. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The Grok 3 launch did not test against full o3 and reported only a handful of benchmarks.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-grok-3-hot-take-302078-a2.

  147. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Grok 3 has not solved hallucinations.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-grok-3-hot-take-29a51f-a1.

  148. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-d1d61f

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  149. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Promises that AI will produce world-changing science rarely materialize.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-589ed9-a1.

  150. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Pure scaling simply isn't the path to AGI and will not get us there.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-2abc58-a1.

  151. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Sky-high expectations caused many to see GPT-5 as a major letdown, and OpenAI's credibility fell dramatically on launch night.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-26d204-a1.

  152. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLM development has hit a wall: real progress on some dimensions but stuck on others.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-19e767-a1.

  153. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Models hyped as godlike turn out to be incremental advances.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming-0e13ae-a1.

  154. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Projected arrival dates for GPT-5 have repeatedly slipped into the future.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-now-arriving-gate-8-gate-9-9cccde-a2.

  155. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-gpt-5-now-arriving-gate-8-gate-9-774448

    The anthropic review reads the claim differently.

  156. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-5 will not be released in 2024.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-now-arriving-gate-8-gate-9-459a41-a1.

  157. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-gpt-5-hot-take-ca5a48

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  158. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-gpt-5-hot-take-6d408c

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  159. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-5 is still part of the pack rather than a giant leap forward; for example, Grok 4 beats it on ARC-AGI-2.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-hot-take-6bff2b-a1.

  160. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI left the ARC-AGI-2 comparison out of its GPT-5 livestream benchmarks, which made the livestream look like marketing rather than science.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-hot-take-5eb0a3-a1.

  161. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-5 is not AGI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-hot-take-5d0a8a-a1.

  162. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI still has no clear technical moat with GPT-5.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-hot-take-25d34f-2-a1.

  163. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    In the GPT-5 announcement, OpenAI showed at least two graphs whose bars did not match the numbers.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-gpt-5-hot-take-085a4f-a1.

  164. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-give-me-compromise-or-give-me-chaos-d372bb

    The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: These expressed positions contradict the blanket claim of seeking exemption from all regulation; they support the narrower concern about lobbying to limit foundation-model obligations (e1, e2)..

  165. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The Code Interpreter and Wolfram Alpha plug-ins significantly extend GPT-4's ability to solve math and science problems.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-getting-gpt-to-work-with-external-6ad253-a2.

  166. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-4 does not reliably understand how to use the Code Interpreter and Wolfram Alpha plug-ins.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-getting-gpt-to-work-with-external-0ab0f2-a1.

  167. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-agi-by-2027-c93b79-2

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed.