Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Claims checked against evidence by Gary Marcus, page 11 of 19

Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Gary Marcus and the sources covered.

Claims checked against evidence by Gary Marcus (1870)

Each of these claims was checked against dated evidence.

Page 11 of 19: claims 1001 to 1100 of 1870, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.

  1. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “The data are coming in – and it’s not.”

    What happened: The published study reported no significant improvement in pull-request cycle time or throughput. Its results support the claim about the contemporary research record, although they cannot establish a universal absence of benefits. (Uplevel, )

  2. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “many lawsuits pending”

    What happened: The order addresses six actions: three consolidated author actions, the Times action, Daily News, and the Center for Investigative Reporting. Ongoing discovery and future deadlines establish pending status; grouping the author actions and the newly consolidated newspaper actions leaves three proceedings. (U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York; copy hosted by Chat GPT Is Eating the World, )

  3. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  4. Assessment: SupportedSaid

  5. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Co-founders John Schulman also left, so did Andrej Karpathy and Jan Leike, and perhaps a dozen others.”

    What happened: The report establishes Schulman's departure before the post and identifies him as a co-founder. (TechCrunch, )

  6. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  7. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “I rushed out a hot take on X, my usual cautions about how LLMs aren’t really AGI:”

    What happened: The launch-era card documents failures in computer-mediated tasks normally performed by human lab assistants; its METR section also reports difficulties using tools and environmental feedback. These are substantive capability gaps supporting the ordinary human-level reading, rather than evidence based merely on occasional errors. (OpenAI, )

  8. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Almost exactly what I predicted we would see with GPT-4, back on Christmas Day 2022.”

    What happened: Altman's original statement contains all three elements of the comparison: continuing flaws, continuing limitations, and a stronger first impression than sustained use supports. (Sam Altman / X, )

  9. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “You should be watching to see what the candidates plan to do about fraud and disinformation, as AI contributes to escalation in both.”

    What happened: This primary agency release connects AI to greater attack scale and describes increasing use of cloned voices and videos to induce fraudulent transactions. It provides a mechanism and an operational assessment, but no estimate of AI-attributable losses. (Federal Bureau of Investigation, San Francisco, )

  10. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “And you should be watching to see what they plan to do about the growing problem of nonconsensual deep fake porn, and especially how that might affect the already vulnerable population of teenage girls, who have been hard by social media.”

    What happened: The Korean passage says the threat from sexual deepfakes of acquaintances and celebrities is substantially increasing. The accompanying police series records 297 cases through July 2024, compared with 180 in all of 2023, directly supporting growth in recorded cases. (Korean National Police Agency; copy hosted by the National Youth Policy Institute, )

  11. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  12. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  13. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  14. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “California’s pending AI bill SB-1047 was supposed to be a tiny step in that direction, and even that has gotten watered down.”

    What happened: The author's official amendment announcement explicitly describes replacing criminal penalties with civil penalties. That is a concrete reduction in enforcement severity before publication, while preserving civil enforcement. (Office of California Senator Scott Wiener, )

  15. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “When Sam Altman stood next to me in the Senate, he told the Senate that he strongly favored AI regulation. But behind the scenes his team fought to water down the EU AI Act.”

    What happened: Altman enthusiastically endorsed a proposed oversight agency and also endorsed licensing. The same exchange includes Marcus, establishing their participation in the hearing. (U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary / Government Publishing Office, )

  16. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  17. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “It also provides important whistleblower protections, which as many ex OpenAI employees have made clear, are critical.”

    What happened: The official analysis confirms whistleblower protections in the relevant version. Its major provisions cover disclosures about noncompliance and unreasonably dangerous models to the Attorney General or Labor Commissioner. (California Legislature, Senate Third Reading analysis, )

  18. Assessment: ContradictedSaid

    “In the new form, SB 1047 can basically only be used only after something really bad happens, as a tool to hold companies liable. It can no longer protect us against obvious negligence that might likely lead to great harm.”

    What happened: The sponsor's official description expressly retains enforcement before harm where public safety faces an imminent threat. It also confirms the narrower point that enforcement was restricted. (Office of California Senator Scott Wiener, )

  19. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  20. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Most or all of the major big tech companies joined a lobbying organization that fought SB-1047, tooth and nail, despite broad public support for the bill.”

    What happened: The report names four of the five companies in the stated ordinary Big Tech grouping. Contemporary reporting supplements the earlier primary partnership disclosure; affiliation does not establish that each company directed this particular campaign. (The Register, )

  21. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “California’s SB-1047, not yet signed into law, but on its way to being one of the first really substantive AI bills in the US, primarily addressed to liability around catastrophic risks, was significantly weakened in last-minute negotiations.”

    What happened: The author's firsthand amendment summary confirms that civil penalties replaced criminal perjury penalties. It also identifies a reduced attestation standard and narrower access to civil penalties before harm, supporting a material reduction in safeguards. (Office of California Senator Scott Wiener, )

  22. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “As I emphasized last year in front of the Senate, there is not one risk but many: bias, disinformation, defamation, toxicity, invasion of privacy, and so much more, to say nothing of risks to employment, intellectual property, and the environment, precisely because recent techniques can be applied in so many ways, still poorly understood.”

    What happened: The report identifies bias, harmful content, disinformation, privacy, intellectual-property and environmental risks, and discusses labor-market effects. It links estimation difficulties to diverse applications, limited training-data visibility, and immature safety measurement. (National Institute of Standards and Technology, )

  23. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  24. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Even then developers are required only to implement "reasonable safeguards" against these severe risks--not to fully mitigate them.”

    What happened: The July 3 analysis describes reasonable safeguards and a prohibition on release where unreasonable critical-harm risk remains. Together these support risk reduction without a zero-risk guarantee. (Foley & Lardner LLP, )

  25. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Lastly, asking for standards is not unique to AI; it's common across many industries to ask that companies evaluate the safety of their products according to set standards: just look at the pharmaceutical industry, or aviation, automobiles, etc.”

    What happened: FDA describes manufacturers testing drugs and submitting evidence against a defined safety-and-effectiveness requirement. The event date denotes this standing regulatory practice at the post date, not the document's publication. (U.S. Food and Drug Administration, )

  26. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “And much of what would be required is already something companies committed to voluntarily, in discussions at the White House and in Seoul.”

    What happened: The announcement records pre-release testing, cybersecurity safeguards and sharing risk information. These overlap with central safety functions identified in the bill analysis. (The White House, announcing participating companies' commitments, )

  27. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “But you don't make clear that much of the bill's requirements are limited to models with training runs of $100 million+. Companies that can afford that, presumably valued in the billions, are not exactly "little-tech."”

    What happened: The article expressly discusses the July 3 amendment and confirms that the $100 million training-cost threshold remained central. Its current page also contains a later veto notice, which is not used here. (Foley & Lardner LLP, )

  28. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “OpenAI recently put Paul Nakasone (ex NSA) on the board”

    What happened: OpenAI directly announces Nakasone's appointment within the period described. Its concluding biography also identifies his former leadership of the NSA. (OpenAI, )

  29. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  30. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  31. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “An awful lot of key players have left the island. Most voluntarily.”

    What happened: Sutskever presents the departure as his decision. This supports classifying it as voluntary on the public record. (Ilya Sutskever, via X, )

  32. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  33. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  34. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Nvidia dropped 6%, 20% over the last month”

    What happened: The table's Close column gives $125.83 on July 5, $107.27 on August 2 and $100.45 on August 5. These produce declines of 20.17% over the month and 6.36% for the day; the separate Adj Close column is not used. (Yahoo Finance, )

  35. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “OpenAI tempered expectations for its next event, and said we wouldn’t see GPT-5 then.”

    What happened: The direct spokesperson statement supports the claimed expectation-setting. (TechCrunch, )

  36. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Over a quarter century later, handling outliers is still the Achilles’ Heel of neural networks.”

    What happened: The evaluation reports failures across several unfamiliar visual domains, supporting a recurring weakness in contemporary generative neural systems. It also finds improvements from in-context learning, while reporting that this approach remains vulnerable to distribution shifts. (arXiv; Zhang and colleagues, )

  37. Assessment: MixedSaid

    “Symbolic systems have always been good for outliers; neural networks have always struggled with them. For 30 years, this has been a constant.”

    What held: The gSCAN experiments report substantial failures when neural models must apply compositional rules to unfamiliar combinations. This supports the recurring neural-difficulty part of the claim, but does not establish symbolic superiority across the entire period. (arXiv; Ruis and colleagues, )

    What did not: In a comparison of seven models, the meta-trained neural approach combined systematicity and flexibility that the symbolic and ordinary neural comparators did not jointly achieve. This contradicts a stable categorical division between successful symbolic generalization and unsuccessful neural generalization. (Nature, )

  38. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  39. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  40. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  41. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  42. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Another GenAI monetization scheme bites the dust.”

    What happened: The report establishes discontinuation of the celebrity-persona offering. It also contains direct confirmation from Meta, making this stronger than an unconfirmed report of a cancellation. (The Verge, )

  43. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  44. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  45. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Consequently, any “reasoning” or “planning” in LLMs is hit or miss, viable if the particulars of a given situation are close enough to what is in the training set, but highly vulnerable if they are not.”

    What happened: Reasoning accuracy falls substantially and consistently on unfamiliar variants of the same tasks. Performance is still nontrivial, which fits 'hit or miss' rather than total failure. (Wu et al., MIT/Boston University (arXiv; NAACL 2024), )

  46. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  47. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Much as I admire the new pair of systems, they do have a serious shortcoming and one that is not unfamiliar. The systems both rely on a kind of cheat on the input: trained human coders translate all the Olympiad's input sentences into mathematical form.”

    What happened: The primary paper explicitly confirms expert manual formalization of AlphaProof's competition inputs. Its publication is later, but the reported event is the July 2024 evaluation. (Nature, )

  48. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  49. Assessment: ContradictedSaid

    “I fully expect that the generative AI bubble will begin to burst within the next 12 months, for many reasons:”

    What happened: EY reports $49.2 billion of first-half generative AI VC investment versus $44.2 billion for all of 2024. It also reports nearly 25% fewer transactions than in the preceding half-year, a material sign of concentration that qualifies the expansion. (EY Ireland, )

  50. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  51. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  52. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Nonetheless, GDM's new work is powerful proof of concept (pun intended!). Neural networks and symbol systems can be profitably combined, contra Hinton and LeCun.”

    What happened: The developer's account connects the actual IMO proofs to a transformer that proposes Lean tactics, search over proof states and automatic formal verification. It explicitly identifies the described work as ending in July 2024. (Julian Schrittwieser, AlphaProof coauthor, )

  53. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  54. Assessment: SupportedSaid

  55. Assessment: ContradictedSaid

    “The current approach has reached a plateau”

    What happened: User comparisons collected June 10–25 show newer frontier models outperforming preceding models on image-containing conversations. Preference measurements are imperfect, but this is independent evidence of improvement within the target quarter. (LMSYS Org, )

  56. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  57. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  58. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  59. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  60. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Long-term adoption (vs mere experimentation) has been modest, there is no significantly better tech now than there was in January; GPT-5 is still a no show.”

    What happened: The official July release history records GPT-4o mini, not GPT-5. This supports the chronology alongside explicit reporting that GPT-5 remained forthcoming; this entry alone would not prove nonrelease. (OpenAI, )

  61. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  62. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  63. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  64. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  65. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “As Ernie Davis and I pointed out in Rebooting AI, five years ago, part of the reason we are struggling with AI in complex AI systems is that we still lack adequate techniques for engineering complex systems. That hasn’t really changed.”

    What happened: The researchers explain that model scale and structure make established software testing and verification methods difficult to apply. They connect that methodological limitation to the difficulty of ensuring deployment robustness. (DeepMind, )

  66. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  67. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  68. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  69. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  70. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “As of today, I am more confident than ever that GPT-5 won’t land this year.”

    What happened: OpenAI introduced GPT-5 on August 7, 2025. A model first introduced in August 2025 was not released in 2024. (OpenAI, )

  71. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “As of today, I am more confident than ever that GPT-5 won’t land this year.”

    What happened: OpenAI's initial GPT-5 announcement is dated August 7, 2025, and describes rollout beginning that day. This places its public arrival after the forecast's 2024 deadline. (OpenAI, )

  72. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  73. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  74. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  75. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Exhibit A: OpenAI’s CTO Mira Murati just publicly acknowledged what I long suspected: there is no mind blowing GPT-5 behind the scenes as of yet.”

    What happened: The contemporaneous report attributes a modest internal capability lead to OpenAI's CTO. This supports the ordinary qualitative reading, although it does not independently measure private models or identify one as GPT-5. (The Decoder, )

  76. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  77. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “In many ways, it is much weaker than what Altman and I talked about at the Senate last year.”

    What happened: Marcus proposed FDA-like review before deployment. The same transcript records Altman's proposed licensing agency, license revocation, safety standards, and independent audits; it establishes the comparison rather than proving Marcus's later assessment by repetition. (U.S. Senate / Government Publishing Office, )

  78. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  79. Assessment: ContradictedSaid

    “He doesn’t specify which actual restrictions in the proposal bill would “stifle AI models”.”

    What happened: Ng explicitly names safety assessments and shutdown capabilities. In the next paragraph, he focuses on the hazardous-capability designation and potential downstream liability, then connects that burden to inhibited model development, especially open source. (DeepLearning.AI, )

  80. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Two weeks later, it has already come out that the database that indexes the whole thing is in plain text (except on systems that are explicitly set to encrypt everything). That’s bananas. Keystone Kops level security.”

    What happened: The preserved June documentation describes the unencrypted database and demonstrates extracting and searching its screenshot-derived text. Its June 6 example falls within the target period; June 8 is the documentation's stated FAQ update date. (Alexander Hagenah, )

  81. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  82. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  83. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  84. Assessment: MixedSaid

  85. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “For one thing, the bad press about Sam Altman and OpenAI, who once seemingly could do no wrong, just keeps coming.”

    What happened: This critical newsletter discusses the voice dispute, safety-team departures, and restrictive employee agreements. The event being assessed is publication of critical coverage; available_at conservatively uses the displayed modification date. (The Guardian, )

  86. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  87. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  88. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  89. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “For all the daily claims of “exponential progress”, and for all the tens of billions that have been invested since, reliability is still a dream, and of course toxicity and hallucinations are still with us.”

    What happened: The May evaluation documents invented constraints and false claims of task completion, directly supporting continuing hallucinations and unreliable autonomous execution. The report also records successful shorter tasks and strong scientific-question performance, so the failures do not imply universal incompetence. (UK AI Safety Institute, )

  90. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “The ridicule is of me; the failure is of the lords of deep learning to resolve what ails their AI.”

    What happened: The leading lab says its flagship model, released within the period, still hallucinates and is not fully reliable. (OpenAI, )

  91. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  92. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  93. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  94. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  95. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  96. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  97. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “OpenAI called itself open, and traded on the notion of being open, but even as early as May 2016 knew that the name was misleading.”

    What happened: The report describes Amodei telling Altman and Brockman that people expected OpenAI to release its source code. Altman acknowledged that this exceeded its plans and discouraged correcting the impression; this is firsthand reporting, not an internal email. (The New Yorker, )

  98. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid

  99. Assessment: SupportedSaid

    “Altman once (in 2016) promised that outsiders would play an important role in the company’s governance; that key promise has not been kept.”

    What happened: The adjacent line 7a explanation assigns director elections to these members. The filing therefore describes an internally selected board, not an electorate drawn from the public. (OpenAI Inc., copy hosted by Gwern, )

  100. Assessment: UnresolvedSaid