Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Changes, page 9 of 55

Every substantive change to the register, newest first. Speaker events record what the people covered said or changed. Site events record what this site published, corrected, flagged, or withdrew. The two never share a label.

Substantive changes (10984)

Page 9 of 55: changes 1601 to 1800 of 10984, newest first. Dates are when the change was recorded.

  1. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Because of unreliability and immense costs from inefficiency, ChatGPT has failed so far to make profits for companies like OpenAI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt-d4be08-a2.

  2. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If the trial is framed as a referendum on Musk rather than OpenAI's founders, Musk will lose the lawsuit against OpenAI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-three-thoughts-on-the-musk-openai-351df3-a2.

  3. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Debugging is hard and a big part of what coders do, and it is not about to be replaced by AI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-those-claiming-were-mere-months-away-d66a7a-a1.

  4. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Current machine learning techniques handle outliers poorly and so struggle with driverless cars and high-level reasoning in unusual circumstances.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-f263c7-a1.

  5. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-e72ed7

    The anthropic review reads the claim differently.

  6. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-8c35c2

    e1 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-08-01); it can only be context

  7. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-7ad1f3

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  8. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-6e4fe6

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  9. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    People in AI who do not understand that machine learning handles outliers poorly have wasted a tremendous amount of money.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-667be0-a1.

  10. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-59b46c

    e2 is dated 2024, which is not inside the period described (1990-01-01 to 2024-08-01); it can only be context

  11. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The industry built on generative AI will collapse because people don't understand the outlier problem.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-54019a-a1.

  12. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    For 30 years, neural networks have struggled with outliers while symbolic systems handled them well.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-4b8735-a2.

  13. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    More than a quarter century after his 1998 work, handling outliers (distribution shift) is still the Achilles' heel of neural networks.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-0d51f7-a1.

  14. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-08bd7a

    The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/not_applicable/supported, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/unresolved.

  15. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-this-one-important-fact-about-current-0059de

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  16. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    After GPT-5's disappointment, OpenAI's lead and Altman's reputation have dwindled, though the lead is not gone.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-things-are-so-desperate-at-openai-db9bad-a1.

  17. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-things-are-so-desperate-at-openai-d668ca

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  18. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-things-are-so-desperate-at-openai-c77d62

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  19. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    No form of deep learning has yet solved reasoning, hallucinations, stupid errors, or factuality.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-things-are-so-desperate-at-openai-670510-a1.

  20. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-things-are-so-desperate-at-openai-3e39d1

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  21. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-things-are-about-to-get-a-lot-worse-fe969c

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.

  22. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Generative AI systems do not inform users when they produce infringing material.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-things-are-about-to-get-a-lot-worse-fe79c3-a2.

  23. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Current generative AI systems do not give users a manifest of sources.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-things-are-about-to-get-a-lot-worse-679273-2-a1.

  24. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Unless a new architecture that reliably tracks provenance is invented, generative AI infringement, often unrequested by users, will continue.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-things-are-about-to-get-a-lot-worse-395723-a2.

  25. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI has not been transparent about its training data.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-things-are-about-to-get-a-lot-worse-1c64d7-a1.

  26. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Generative AI systems can produce copyright-infringing materials.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-things-are-about-to-get-a-lot-worse-0adbbc-a1.

  30. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-secret-behind-metas-muse-bb66a1

    The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/not_applicable/mixed, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/unresolved.

  31. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Facebook M was canceled in January 2018, less than three years after launch.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-secret-behind-metas-muse-328161-a2.

  32. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-secret-behind-metas-muse-2a2175

    The anthropic review reads the claim differently.

  33. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Facebook's Project M agent never really took off.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-secret-behind-metas-muse-08363b-a2.

  35. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI has shown no evident moat beyond its initial customers, who could move.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-sam-altman-playbook-e78f08-a2.

  36. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI does not pay most creators for training materials, and many creators are losing gigs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-sam-altman-playbook-c1e7e9-a1.

  37. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-sam-altman-playbook-9aa24b

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  39. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI mostly sells chatbots, and charitable work is at best a small part of its operation.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-sam-altman-playbook-567e9e-a1.

  40. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    People who buy Altman's narrative will continue to invest.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-sam-altman-playbook-5242b7-a1.

  41. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI has had no net profits so far, and roughly half of any future profits must be shared with Microsoft for a long time.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-sam-altman-playbook-476421-a1.

  43. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    ChatGPT usership has more or less stabilized without significant growth since May 2023.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-sam-altman-playbook-17dd17-a1.

  44. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-rise-and-fall-of-microsofts-new-dc1c99

    The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.

  45. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Financial challenges facing ChatGPT/OpenAI were starting to mount as of August 2023.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-rise-and-fall-of-chatgpt-b6c05d-a1.

  47. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    A backlash against generative AI and ChatGPT had begun by August 2023.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-rise-and-fall-of-chatgpt-a80dd0-a1.

  48. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Not every enterprise-scale generative AI project will succeed.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-rise-and-fall-of-chatgpt-822283-a2.

  49. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-rise-and-fall-of-chatgpt-5a340a

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  50. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-one-issue-unifying-the-american-bbe03a

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  51. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-one-issue-unifying-the-american-b2269b

    The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: The release identifies June 16–July 19 as the survey period and cautions that subgroup uncertainty exceeds the full-sample margin of error..

  52. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus has repeatedly stressed that a model could be a good model for engineering without being a good model of humans, or vice versa.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-new-sport-of-misrepresenting-854a4c-a1.

  54. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus's 2012 concerns about deep learning still stand, and the problem for the neural network community is not that he has changed his goal posts.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-new-sport-of-misrepresenting-50b5c8-a1.

  55. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Current neural networks lack the cognitive depth and robustness needed for reliable Level 5 self-driving from vision alone.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-new-sport-of-misrepresenting-0c607b-a2.

  57. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    DALL-E 2 is fairly prone to uncomprehending errors such as failing to render 'a red cube on top of a blue cube'.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-d724f8-a1.

  58. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Scaling is currently the predominant strand of work in AI that substitutes data for intelligence.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-d2de9c-a1.

  59. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    DeepMind's Gato achieves novel cross-modal feats but remains unreliable, mixing brilliance with total discomprehension.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-ca7f59-a1.

  60. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-a08647

    e1 is dated 2022, which is not inside the period described (2022-01-01 to 2022-05-14); it can only be context

  61. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    So far, in most but not all domains, Big Data approaches have beaten careful knowledge engineering.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-99f3a2-a1.

  62. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Virtually all of the world's software still depends on knowledge engineering.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-9051c6-a1.

  65. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-759653

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  66. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-421790

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  67. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-new-science-of-alt-intelligence-1728ef

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  69. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-need-for-a-president-that-speaks-e1119d

    e1 is dated 2024-06, which is not inside the period described (2024-01-01 to 2024-06-28); it can only be context

  70. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-need-for-a-president-that-speaks-c383e4

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  72. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Returns from scaling generative AI are starting to diminish.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-need-for-a-president-that-speaks-6091ac-a1.

  73. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-need-for-a-president-that-speaks-3df855

    a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis

  74. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The next US President's AI policy decisions on corporate liability and government oversight will have lasting impact.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-need-for-a-president-that-speaks-0292f9-a1.

  76. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI strayed from its original mission.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-irony-and-the-agony-of-elon-musks-cfd930-a1.

  77. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI, Altman and Brockman have changed OpenAI's mission since Musk gave them money, time and reputation.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-irony-and-the-agony-of-elon-musks-909dd8-a1.

  78. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-hottest-new-programming-language-a7b060

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  79. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-hottest-new-programming-language-8231fa

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  80. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Society is being reshaped on the premise that AGI is close.

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  81. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-generative-ai-fizzle-eb59aa

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  82. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Most of the generative-AI-related stocks he highlighted are down significantly for the month.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-generative-ai-fizzle-da37fe-a1.

  83. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Many things in AI are overvalued, though that does not mean they will all deflate at once.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-generative-ai-fizzle-b97943-a1.

  84. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-generative-ai-fizzle-2f0902

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct.

  85. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-five-stages-of-agi-grief-f662a8

    The openai review does not accept e1 as supports.

  86. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-five-stages-of-agi-grief-a3c4ec

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  87. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-five-stages-of-agi-grief-9d153a

    The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.

  89. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Yann LeCun originated none of the five ideas he is publicly known for, and he rarely if ever credits the people who did.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-false-glorification-of-yann-lecun-f07e39-a1.

  90. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The idea of world models in AI is not new; it goes back to the 1950s and Herb Simon's General Problem Solver.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-false-glorification-of-yann-lecun-dfd44f-a1.

  91. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LeCun has never publicly acknowledged that Marcus was on target with his conjecture that scaling LLMs would not lead to AGI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-false-glorification-of-yann-lecun-d60b6e-a1.

  93. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-false-glorification-of-yann-lecun-5567ed

    The anthropic review does not accept e2 as contradicts.

  94. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-false-glorification-of-yann-lecun-29c961

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  95. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The myths about the originality of LeCun's thought are not true.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-false-glorification-of-yann-lecun-06734f-a1.

  96. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LeCun only fully changed his mind about LLMs a few weeks after November 2022, after Meta's Galactica tanked and ChatGPT outcompeted Meta.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-false-glorification-of-yann-lecun-024a9f-a1.

  97. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Reviewers and journals will not be able to keep up with the flood of LLM-generated submissions.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-exponential-enshittification-aa15a9-a2.

  98. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-exponential-enshittification-a80466

    the conclusive event's date differs from its evidence

  99. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLM makers are about to destroy the scientific journal review system.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-exponential-enshittification-910ba6-2-a1.

  100. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The problem of LLM-generated content in scientific publishing is getting worse quickly.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-exponential-enshittification-48f0fb-a1.

  101. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    People's private data will be used to feed data-hungry AI systems, whether or not they like it.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-dirty-underbelly-of-ai-5d0270-a2.

  102. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Generative image programs are prone to the same kind of regurgitation of copyrighted material as text models.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-desperate-race-to-save-generative-e83129-a1.

  103. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If copyright rules are rewritten for GenAI, eventually no one will create good new content and the internet will degrade into recycled AI output.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-desperate-race-to-save-generative-67c50f-a2.

  104. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    We are about to enter an era in which AI is ubiquitous but still fallible.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-cnet-fake-news-fiasco-autopilot-f0c71e-2-a1.

  105. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Mackworth was right that humans can't pay attention 100% of the time.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-cnet-fake-news-fiasco-autopilot-b7b0a5-a1.

  106. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-cnet-fake-news-fiasco-autopilot-b74698

    The anthropic review does not accept e9 as supports.

  107. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-cnet-fake-news-fiasco-autopilot-b6c681

    The anthropic review does not accept e3 as supports.

  108. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-cnet-fake-news-fiasco-autopilot-5528cc

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  109. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-cnet-fake-news-fiasco-autopilot-4a9185

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  110. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    As automated systems approach but do not reach perfection, humans overseeing them become more likely to stop paying attention.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-cnet-fake-news-fiasco-autopilot-3a4f96-a1.

  111. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI, one of the most visible AI companies, had its governance change literally overnight in November 2023.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-biggest-immediate-lesson-from-fe5d16-2-a1.

  112. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Claude Code's superiority comes from being neurosymbolic, not from scaling.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-biggest-advance-in-ai-since-the-b16967-a1.

  114. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Claude Code is not perfect or even close to it.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-biggest-advance-in-ai-since-the-4645c2-a2.

  115. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-bad-news-ai-is-going-pretty-much-5cb299

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: It cautions against treating all mitigation ideas as worthless, but does not test the unidentified replies or establish that a comprehensive fix was easy..

  116. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Mass-produced AI-generated misinformation has arrived at scale.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-bad-news-ai-is-going-pretty-much-3fa6ee-a1.

  117. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-bad-news-ai-is-going-pretty-much-095ef8

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  118. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The Musk v. OpenAI trial ended on procedural grounds: the jury found Musk's claim too late and did not rule on whether OpenAI's conduct was legitimate.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-ai-trial-of-the-century-ends-cf44c4-a1.

  119. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Once the implications of LLMs' inherent limitations are fully appreciated, the AI bubble will begin to unwind.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby-3e9cc5-a2.

  120. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-e33125

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  121. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-e11832

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  122. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    We do not know how to create useful synthetic training data for many open-ended, unverifiable domains.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-ded2ce-a1.

  123. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Small daily incremental gains in LLMs are not enough to produce the quantum leaps the AI 2027 scenario implies.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-cff460-a1.

  124. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    General intelligence will almost certainly arrive years, if not decades, later than the AI 2027 scenario projects.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-c86047-a1.

  125. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-c69d4f

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  127. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-c34e97

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  130. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Driverless cars, promised for everyone by 2017, operate in only about 10 of the world's 20,000 cities.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-a60645-a2.

  131. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-8ed71c-2

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  132. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-89d08c

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  133. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-7a1f61

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  134. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Agents like the scenario's Agent-1 exist only in demo form from the big companies.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-5114c6-a1.

  135. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Pretraining scaling has hit a rough patch.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-4764ac-a2.

  137. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Google Duplex, hyped in 2018, still has not fully materialized.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic-27ef33-a2.

  138. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-f5c958

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  139. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-f50df9

    The openai review reads the claim differently.

  140. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    So far, AI has not killed humanity as Yudkowsky warned.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-e3b482-a1.

  141. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    As of April 2024, no company has AI technology sophisticated enough to make a virtual assistant answer questions reliably.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-b2e1ea-a1.

  142. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The Humane AI pin just doesn't work well, and a lot of the problem is its underlying AI, which he believes is powered by OpenAI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-a9d5a7-a1.

  143. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLMs remained unreliable as of April 2024, a year after Choi's TED talk.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-a42209-a1.

  144. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    There has been genuine progress on global AI governance, led especially by the UN and the Council of Europe.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-5ea6df-a1.

  145. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-184325

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  146. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-ted-ai-and-the-test-of-time-0362cb

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  147. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-technoptimism-ted-and-the-road-to-eff4dd

    e2 is dated 2023-11, which is not inside the period described (2023-11-22 to 2024-04-17); it can only be context

  148. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Without transparency, auditing and interpretability policies, public resistance to AI will increase.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-technoptimism-ted-and-the-road-to-662398-a2.

  149. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AGI superior to the smartest individual humans will not arrive by the end of 2025.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh-d7147d-a2.

  150. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh-aab006

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  151. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh-96db23

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  152. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh-451e99

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  153. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI and Anthropic sell only slightly different products and are fighting hard for more or less the same market, like Coke and Pepsi.

    The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: The January 30 survey's differing workload preferences are consistent with differentiated products serving overlapping markets [e4]..

  155. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-super-bowl-matchup-anthropic-vs-openai-334edb

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  156. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Current AI does not decide to teach itself and does not have consistent beliefs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-stop-treating-ai-models-like-people-db97c6-a1.

  157. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-stop-treating-ai-models-like-people-c4f91e

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  158. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-stop-treating-ai-models-like-people-bbf771

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai not_applicable/not_applicable/not_adjudicable.

  159. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Growing ability of AI to emulate human responses has made the overattribution (ELIZA effect) problem more pernicious.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-stop-treating-ai-models-like-people-a5113a-a1.

  161. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached-c77377

    The openai review reads the claim differently.

  162. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Brain-computer interfaces will improve greatly, though reaching Kurzweil's vision may take many decades or centuries.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached-aeeb0e-a2.

  163. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached-80f3f1

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  165. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI has not brought about an age of abundance as of July 2026.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached-6a14cb-a1.

  166. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached-5d0db1

    e2 is dated 2026-07, which is not inside the period described (2026-07-01 to 2026-07-28); it can only be context

  167. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached-576b07

    The openai review reads the claim differently.

  168. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI's limitations on many tasks are part of why a number of companies are quietly rehiring humans.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached-3fc178-a2.

  169. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Emerging data show generative AI is not improving programmer productivity by a factor of 10.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-sorry-genai-is-not-going-to-10x-computer-8f3df9-a1.

  170. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-sorry-genai-is-not-going-to-10x-computer-2b2972

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  171. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Two recent studies of generative AI coding tools show nothing like a 10x productivity improvement.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-sorry-genai-is-not-going-to-10x-computer-19c660-a2.

  172. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-sorry-but-funsearch-probably-isnt-d351d3

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  173. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Sora's failures of spatiotemporal continuity and object permanence are general, not one-off.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-soras-surreal-physics-e0f584-a2.

  174. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    A deluge of deepfakes is coming, enabled by systems like Sora.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-soras-surreal-physics-74b823-a1.

  175. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Sora does not solve AI's longstanding problems with space, time, and causality.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-soras-surreal-physics-6421e7-a2.

  176. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Sora's glitches don't stem from the data; they stem from a flaw in how the system reconstructs reality.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-soras-surreal-physics-62cde6-a1.

  177. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-sora-still-appears-to-have-trouble-e78401

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  178. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    More training data will not solve Sora's problems with physics.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-sora-still-appears-to-have-trouble-969209-a1.

  179. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-sora-still-appears-to-have-trouble-161cfe

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  181. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI's Sora, like LLMs, makes things up.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-sora-cant-handle-the-truth-a90f3d-a2.

  182. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Multimodal systems trained on text and images still hallucinate and make other errors, sometimes in new ways.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-sora-cant-handle-the-truth-a606ad-a2.

  183. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-sora-cant-handle-the-truth-7995e6

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Grounding in video-text relationships is not enough to prevent Sora from producing impossible outputs like 7x7 chessboards with 3 kings. | A Times of India report published March 6, 2024 quotes Rahul Agarwalla describing a 7×7 board and three kings in the February 15 monkey-chess demonstration [e4]..

  184. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Sora is pretty clueless about chess.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-sora-cant-handle-the-truth-6af4cb-a1.

  185. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    In the chessboard example, Sora is failing to apprehend a cultural regularity of the world (the rules of chess) despite ample evidence.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-sora-cant-handle-the-truth-250a98-a2.

  187. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-some-disconcerting-facts-about-ai-6f65ef

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  188. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI-generated slop is pervasive across journalism, law, music, politics, education and other domains.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-slopocalypse-now-970345-a1.

  189. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Because LLMs inevitably hallucinate, a significant fraction of science produced with them will be wrong.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-slopocalypse-now-60c57f-a1.

  190. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Generative AI's degradation of science has gotten much worse since early 2024.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-slopocalypse-now-2d93d9-a1.

  191. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Scaling of AI has worsened, not improved, AI-induced enshittification.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-slopocalypse-now-155129-a1.

  192. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI has not materially changed GDP.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-slop-productivity-and-why-the-ai-e103e5-2-a2.

  193. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-slop-productivity-and-why-the-ai-a07308

    the contract's accounting basis is unknown; a financial claim is scored only on a stated basis; supported needs at least one supporting item of outcome evidence

  194. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    There is no reason to think the surge of AI-generated content has added to GDP or to the quality of science or music.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-slop-productivity-and-why-the-ai-771473-a2.

  195. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    There are massive financial losses up and down the AI food chain, especially in agentic coding.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-slop-productivity-and-why-the-ai-5295e8-a1.

  196. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-slop-productivity-and-why-the-ai-40b1e0

    The two reviews differ: anthropic causal_assessment/not_applicable/supported, openai causal_assessment/not_applicable/unresolved.

  197. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI slop is inundating Wikipedia, libraries and similar institutions.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-slop-productivity-and-why-the-ai-290417-a1.

  198. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-slop-productivity-and-why-the-ai-18eeaa

    e1 is decisive for a financial claim but states no metric scope

  199. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026-9d67b5

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  200. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    By Marcus's count, 16 of his 17 high-confidence predictions about 2025 were correct.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026-97ce2c-a1.